Mini 1585: Muskoka Murder Mystery - Game Over

[evilpacman18]

this new claim is more reason to lynch Konowa isn't it?

[Aneninen]

I don't know. I can find a logical explanation why he survived Night2 but, wouldn't it have been logical if the scums had killed him Night1? However, Konowa must have known that this thing would come into our minds when he had claimed Miller.

What are your thoughts, EPM? Are the claims real? If not, which one(s) is/are fake?

[evilpacman18]

I believe Bert for now, I still think it's between chaos and Konowa, it is true that Chaos' scumteam won a game where his partner fakeclaimed D1 but that game was broken. Still I could see chaos trying the same gambit, it just would surprise me that he picked Tracker to claim since he's still brand new.
I SUPPOSE it's within the realm of reason that there could be a miller and no cop but I also REEEEEALLY doubt it cuz that would be near-bastard modding and the claim would have probably allowed Konowa to sail through the game if a cop did turn out to be present. Unfortunate that it turned out to be a tracker, really.

[BroodKingEXE]

how was I supposed to do that?

I understand asking for that from a hider or cop or JK, but a bodyguard with no dead/successful results to speak for including a no-kill of some sort, really?

Idk first letter of a string of posts, or something strange statement about Chaos. I'm just saying that if a bodyguard dies and they breadcrumb a name we can assume that person is town. Since you didn't, it doesn't help your case, but it doesn't hurt it either. I think you've been slightly better than Misaka for most of the game, but I just don't like how your apathy has caused you to be so cautious/not willing to stick your neck out. I don't like how you're voting for me over Chaos at this point though, given what you've suggested about Chaos it feels like he's confirmed scum to you. To me it feels like you're still sheeping wagons.

VOTE: Startfromtheheart

[Aneninen]

I've been thinking.
The problem is that I think all of the three claims may or may not be true.

Konowa: I've already written about it before. Claiming Miller in the first post is one of the valid strategies. Fake-claiming might be risky; not only because of not getting Nightkilled at the first couple of Nights is a valid argument for calling the claimer scum later. It's also risky because we have an unknown setup: later flips and claims can greatly decrease the possibility of the presence of a Miller. As for this, both of these factors might be true for our situation...

Chaos: I've already written about this as well. However, here's one more thing. Assuming that he's the Tracker for real, he might have been at least a little bit suspicious about Konowa's claim on Day1. No such thing happened.

Bert: When I read his claim for the first time I had an intuition like "bullshyt, bullshyt, bullshyt". I can't explain why I felt that since I can find nothing in that post (nor in his later posts) which gives scum-wibes and I can't find a single proof how his claim (or his Night actions) might be fake.

Also,
what exactly the case against BroodKing is?
Who else can be scum besides the claimers?
I'm still waiting for many players' posts.

[Guyett]

Having 2 protective roles in the game is odd, especially given how jailkeeper makes bodyguard kinda useless if they target the same person. However it is somewhat negative utility as even if bodyguard blocks the kill they'll die. Gut feeling says its a legit claim

[evilpacman18]

I think chaos is too new to catch any connections between trackers and millers, might not even have known what a miller is.

[startfromtheheart]

I think you've been slightly better than Misaka for most of the game

wow.

misaka played millions of times better than i have. i have no words lol

VOTE: Konowa

this is a 100% gut read. strongest.

the way and yeah i glanced over people's ISOs. it would be nice if anti would come back because his slot is really scummy for disappearing off the face of Mars today, but maybe he's busy or something so not feeling great about that read.

reinoe, Chevre, epm, and dj are my lynch choices today. Still think reinoe is the right play for today (to the point that I'm ignoring the tunnel I'm going down now). After that I have no preference as I think that each is as likely to be scum as the next (though #428 does lessen Chevre being scum).

epm is likely scum for the whole projection of his meta onto Anti, "He's scum because I know I get that way as scum" and doing shit all all game.

Chevre is scum going for the low hanging fruit, Boonskiies, ignoring post #88 where it shows that Boonskiies is newb town. I don't think that newb scum can fake that sort of genuine confusion that he [Boonskiies] obviously doesn't get it.

chaos is probably scum for #528, which also makes reinoe likely town at this point despite my early misgivings about him, for the awful swing vote on reinoe over Chevre.

Pretty much settles on these three for the day. What's the votecount at?

then, he puts a last minute hammer vote on chevre. makes perfect sense for a bus.

Scum must be underpowered and

miller, me,

was added for negative utility, balance. I'm pretty bad at setup stuff so I don't know.
Chaos, don't claim results just yet, especially if you have any positive results.

why would you have to say 'me' when we already know you claimed miller

[Aneninen]

I think chaos is too new to catch any connections between trackers and millers, might not even have known what a miller is.

That is possible.
But, I think we've been talking a lot about Millers so far. He must have already got the point of that role. If not, he might have asked questions about it.

Also, am I the only one who thinks that EPM and Chaos are (soft) defending each other?

[startfromtheheart]

I don't like how you're voting for me over Chaos at this point though, given what you've suggested about Chaos it feels like he's confirmed scum to you.

he's not confirmed anything. i said it feels wrong that he is still alive. that doesn't mean he is confirmed scum. that means i am very suspicious of him, but that does not mean confirmed anything. also, a PR is still a PR is still a PR claim. im most scared of playing into scum's hands and lynching out of paranoia that chaos-slot is still alive

also, the lack of attention on EPM is really weird the last few days. im surprised everyone just let go of that read after i defended him and the lynch on chevre went through instead.

I think chaos is too new to catch any connections between trackers and millers, might not even have known what a miller is.

this is really really unlikely

[startfromtheheart]

oh my god dang it

im back to thinking Anen is scum.

VOTE: Anen

I've been thinking.

The problem is that I think all of the three claims may or may not be true.

Konowa: I've already written about it before. Claiming Miller in the first post is one of the valid strategies. Fake-claiming might be risky; not only because of not getting Nightkilled at the first couple of Nights is a valid argument for calling the claimer scum later. It's also risky because we have an unknown setup: later flips and claims can greatly decrease the possibility of the presence of a Miller. As for this, both of these factors might be true for our situation...

Chaos: I've already written about this as well. However, here's one more thing. Assuming that he's the Tracker for real, he might have been at least a little bit suspicious about Konowa's claim on Day1. No such thing happened.

Bert: When I read his claim for the first time I had an intuition like "bullshyt, bullshyt, bullshyt". I can't explain why I felt that since I can find nothing in that post (nor in his later posts) which gives scum-wibes and I can't find a single proof how his claim (or his Night actions) might be fake.

Also,
what exactly the case against BroodKing is?

Who else can be scum besides the claimers?

I'm still waiting for many players' posts.

Just read the bolded. Why isn't this player being voted more??

[Aneninen]

What is your problem with the part you've bolded? I don't get it.

[startfromtheheart]

"all of the three claims may or not may be true" what is the point of saying that?

or asking "who else can be scum besides the claimers" without commenting on who you think is scum besides the claimers. anyone else could be scum outside the claimers, so that statement doesn't make sense.

it's like you're asking us who is scummy outside the claimers so you can help lynch whoever we say

[Aneninen]

"all of the three claims may or not may be true" what is the point of saying that? ¹

or asking "who else can be scum besides the claimers" without commenting on who you think is scum besides the claimers. anyone else could be scum outside the claimers, so that statement doesn't make sense.²

it's like you're asking us who is scummy outside the claimers so you can help lynch whoever we say³

I see.
(1) – perhaps it's the fact that English is my second language. I wanted to say the following: I'm unsure about all the claims. It's possible that all of them are true (real, genuine, etc.) but it's also possible that one or more of them are fake. I hope it's clear now.

(2) – I've posted my reads here: 1195. Though some of my reads has changed since that I still have the same read about many players. Also, check out where my vote is. It's on EPM who has claimed nothing yet. So, this point of yours doesn't make sense at all.
(Plus, if we lynched one of the players who has claimed something we could lose a PR if the claim was real. Thatswhy I'd prefer another lynch IF we found one. I've posted about this many times before as well.)

(3) – That's also not true. It's partly explained in (2) and it's clear that I'm pretty much unwilling to lynch BroodKing (thatswhy I asked what the case is against him) or Antihero (whom I suspected before but analysing his vote pattern revealed things which are contradicting his "scummy-ness".)

Think what you wish but you're searching scums at a wrong place now.

[chaoslord54]

I'm starting to feel like Aneninen leans scum He has ignored the question I asked about his reads post, I also noticed that he said that the biggest "scum" reads of his are the people who are going after Konowa and does not have a really good case on why he things we are scum or why Konowa seems closer to town to him. Just comes off weird to me. Going to keep my vote though still on Konowa for now because out of everyone I still feel like Konowa is the biggest scum read I have.

[Aneninen]

I haven't ignored your question. I simply gave an answer for that before. Konowa is not on my town list. I've wrote about this as well many times: it's possible that his claim is fake.
You told me that you would post a game about EPM in which he had the same gameplay as he has now. That haven't happened yet.
By the way, I keep in mind as well that Konowa is among the players who has given no reactions to my posts so far.

[chaoslord54]

I haven't ignored your question. I simply gave an answer for that before. Konowa is not on my town list. I've wrote about this as well many times: it's possible that his claim is fake.
You told me that you would post a game about EPM in which he had the same gameplay as he has now. That haven't happened yet.
By the way, I keep in mind as well that Konowa is among the players who has given no reactions to my posts so far.

Can you link to me the posts then answering the question please Aneninen? Also, I know you've mentioned that but you don't really give adequate explanation though imo on why you lean more towards Konowa as town a.k.a. him being a 3 on your reads list. If you have and I've just missed it then please link those as well.

Also, here's the link to the other game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=57502

[BipolarChemist]

Official Vote Count

Konowa (2):

evilpacman18, chaoslord54

BroodKingEXE (1):

Cheery Dog

Antihero (1):

Guyett

chaoslord54 (1):

Konowa

evilpacman18 (1):

Aneninen

startfromtheheart (1):

BroodKingEXE

Aneninen (1):

startfromtheheart

Not Voting

: Antihero

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Time Till Deadline: (expired on 2014-08-04 16:00:00)

[BipolarChemist]

Antihero is V/LA until Tuesday

[Cheery Dog]

I personally played one closed game on MS, so I'm assuming red-herrings aren't all that common. Unless a couple players confirm that they are common, I'd be willing to drop this plan.

They have happened, but I don't know exact fact about how often because miller itself is an uncommon role. (my only game I can remember having a miller is probably because it had 2, it had a 1-shot cop)

how was I supposed to do that?

I understand asking for that from a hider or cop or JK, but a bodyguard with no dead/successful results to speak for including a no-kill of some sort, really?

The same way a hider would do so, moreso when you're unlikely a straight kill choice. It's pointless to do so now you've claimed, because there's now a direct way the scum might kill you.

"all of the three claims may or not may be true" what is the point of saying that? ¹

or asking "who else can be scum besides the claimers" without commenting on who you think is scum besides the claimers. anyone else could be scum outside the claimers, so that statement doesn't make sense.²

it's like you're asking us who is scummy outside the claimers so you can help lynch whoever we say³

I see.
(1) – perhaps it's the fact that English is my second language. I wanted to say the following: I'm unsure about all the claims. It's possible that all of them are true (real, genuine, etc.) but it's also possible that one or more of them are fake. I hope it's clear now.

(2) – I've posted my reads here: 1195. Though some of my reads has changed since that I still have the same read about many players. Also, check out where my vote is. It's on EPM who has claimed nothing yet. So, this point of yours doesn't make sense at all.
(Plus, if we lynched one of the players who has claimed something we could lose a PR if the claim was real. Thatswhy I'd prefer another lynch IF we found one. I've posted about this many times before as well.)

(3) – That's also not true. It's partly explained in (2) and it's clear that I'm pretty much unwilling to lynch BroodKing (thatswhy I asked what the case is against him) or Antihero (whom I suspected before but analysing his vote pattern revealed things which are contradicting his "scummy-ness".)

Think what you wish but you're searching scums at a wrong place now.

The wording of your post isn't the problem, it's the fence sittings with opening yourself up to being suspicious of everyone.

I will wait for post 1195 to come around so I can see your reads. Very clever being able to know what post you're going to list them on in the future.

[Cheery Dog]

what exactly the case against BroodKing is?

I don't think there is one, my vote when over due to poitless rolefishing.

[Aneninen]

Can you link to me the posts then answering the question please Aneninen?

Here are my reads again. As for your question about the "why-s" I've added some edits and remarks (in italic.)

Spoiler:

Towntells:
First of all, his Tracker claim, if it's real. –

I've posted a lot about this topic since then. It's possible that it's real and also possible that it's fake.

Why did he claim on Day2 with tracking Reinoe? Wouldn't it have been easier to wait for Day3? Eg. he could have chosen from more dead players to give away uninformative tracks... –

Neither the claim nor naming Reinoe as a target would have made sense if he were scum.

He voted on Chevre on Day 1. Even if he didn't give an explanation for that (as far as I saw) it would have made no sense if he were Chevre's partner. –

That part is still true.

Scumtells:
His case on Reinoe on Day1 was shyt. His claim happened in an inappropriate moment, I think. (There was no wagon against him and he provided no info by that.) –

The last part in brackets, that's FoS. On the other hand, if he thought that Reinoe was scum his tracking made sense.

His jump on the Misaka wagon was awkward. –

You posted this: "Okay I'm going to abandon my EPM case for now and focus on Misaka because the switch on votes and the fact that there's been no word from Misaka as of late I call scum. " (Your former vote was EPM.) No case, no explanation, only jumping on. However, it might make sense if you wanted to put pressure on Misaka so as to make him post more. Is this true? If so, you've never mentioned it since then.

980: that's not true. Antihero used to lead a wagon against me but later he abandoned it. –

I meant this: "Which is starting to really make me question Anti who has been trying to run everyone against Aneninan most of this game". By that time Antihero abandoned my case. This part is still FoS.

There would have been a better track than me, I suppose. –

Eg. Konowa (to confirm his claim), Antihero, Guyett (as far as I can remember, you FoS-ed them at that time.)

What if he tries to buddy me? –

It's not true anymore, we can skip this ^_^

Post-edit –

Blah, blah, I edit this part. I've written a lot about the "which claim is real which is fake" part. I won't repeat that again.

Others:
The more I read his posts the more I think that he's scum. –

That was true at that moment. Right now I'm unsure. At least you're responding to my posts while Konowa seems to ignore them.

Still, what if we're wrong? We shouldn't lynch the Tracker in this case. How can I say, I wouldn't suggest lynching him today because the loss might be detrimental. –

And that part plays very important role in my gameplay. If there's an equal chance (according to our reads) for a scum-Konowa and a scum-ChaosLord, we should lynch Konowa because losing a Miller (if we mislynch) is still better than losing a Tracker. Or at least, I think so. But, lynching Konowa ONLY because that's still better if we perform a mislynch would be a seriously bad gameplay. Plus, I'd hate to see a policy lynch.

Also, I know you've mentioned that but you don't really give adequate explanation though imo on why you lean more towards Konowa as town a.k.a. him being a 3 on your reads list. If you have and I've just missed it then please link those as well.

To make it clear: there is no 2-digit-difference between you and Konowa any more. As I said before, I don't like that he's ignoring my posts. Second, there are things against him too and I've already posted about those. (Eg. why did he survive Night1 at all?)

Also, here's the link to the other game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=57502

Thanks, I'll check that later.
Until I do that my vote will remain where it is. It's highly unlikely that anyone would try to quickhammer EPM in the near future. ^_^

The wording of your post isn't the problem, it's the fence sittings with opening yourself up to being suspicious of everyone.
I will wait for post 1195 to come around so I can see your reads. Very clever being able to know what post you're going to list them on in the future.

Aha. I can see what the problem is.
I made a post in which I explained why it's very, very likely (even if it's not 100% confirmed) that I'm town. This one: 1192. Noone has expressed any questions or doubts about that post (eg. "your explanation is FoS", "that proves nothing", "there are serious holes in your logic", etc.) so I thought that everyone accepted that my VT claim was real, true, valid. Given that I've thought that my claim was accepted by everyone, my gameplay has changed too.
I'm asking questions because I want to know which one of the claims may be fake and who else can be scum and I'm hunting for facts that might have been pointed out by you all and ignored or mis-read by me (also, I'm not afraid to admit that the situation is complicated), plus, I want to find answers which may be scummy. I know that this gameplay could appear fence-sitting. And I also know that we would know much more Tomorrow but, I'm simply afraid of lynching a town-PR.

I will wait for post 1195 to come around so I can see your reads.

That post will arrive but not in the near future. Sorry to say but I wanted to write that readlist today but I have a lot of IRL work to do. (And yes, I haven't known before that this week of mine will be much more busy than I thought before.)
Sorry everyone, I know that my timing about being busy is terrible. That's how my IRL life goes.

This post is everything I've been able to do now. Maybe in the evening (GMT +1) I might have time and brain for a more contentful post.

(Also sorry if I posted mis-quotes, unclear things, misinterpretations, etc. I'm in a hurry now.)

[evilpacman18]

I think chaos is too new to catch any connections between trackers and millers, might not even have known what a miller is.

That is possible.
But, I think we've been talking a lot about Millers so far. He must have already got the point of that role. If not, he might have asked questions about it.

Also, am I the only one who thinks that EPM and Chaos are (soft) defending each other?

We know each other irl and I think have town reads on each other

[evilpacman18]

Bert can you just trust me that Annnn is town and go back to voting Konowa? That was good.

[startfromtheheart]

god i am playing so terribly this game

VOTE: Konowa

have a wagon