Micro 376: Chosen Mafia - Game Over = Perfect Town Win

[Wickedestjr]

Votecount 2.8:

BlueBloodedToffee - [3] - Josh_B, ZZZX, Guilty Gunsmith
Lying Cat - [1] - awestfie
ZZZX - [1] - Heartless

Not voting - [2] - BlueBloodedToffee, Lying Cat

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2014-09-10 17:11:03)

[Wickedestjr]

Prodding awestfie.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Oh shit, what's going on here.

VOTE: Josh_B

[TellTaleHeart]

Man, Z', you are posting up a storm all over the site but here! Golly!

No etL is right though you are totally town.

You are incorrigible, AP.

ETL, is there any plausible reason why ZZZX would be specifically avoiding this game? And avoiding me when I'm specifically trying to have a conversation with him? I still have yet to hear why BBT or AP are scumreads, though I do see that ZZZX is monitoring our activity enough to get onto Antihero about signing his posts.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Man, Z', you are posting up a storm all over the site but here! Golly!

No etL is right though you are totally town.

You are incorrigible, AP.

ETL, is there any plausible reason why ZZZX would be specifically avoiding this game? And avoiding me when I'm specifically trying to have a conversation with him? I still have yet to hear why BBT or AP are scumreads, though I do see that ZZZX is monitoring our activity enough to get onto Antihero about signing his posts.

-TTH

The score is 4 to 20.

Still not as bad as Anti.

-TTH

[Heartless]

I went back and reviewed Flubbernugget's activity and cross-referenced mentions of ZZZX. I didn't find anything other than a short exchange at the beginning of the game regarding an interaction between TSO and ZZZX.

Since we now know that TSO was not a chosen townie, we can eliminate that as a possibility for the reason for the push. That leaves a few more possibilities: (1) ZZZX is really a chosen townie and Flubbernugget slipped up and revealed that he knew this information, (2) ZZZX is just a vanilla townie and Flubbernugget fabricated this case to pit TSO and ZZZX against each other, and (3) ZZZX is Flubbernuggets teammate and the posts serve to scare the town into not voting ZZZX by planting this idea that he's chosen.

There are several indications that (1) can be eliminated. We see that he quickly drops this idea that ZZZX is a chosen townie and TSO is trying to get his lynch. He never brings this idea up again. In post 393, ZZZX is completely absent from the player-by-player analysis. If ZZZX really was a chosen townie, I would think there would be a couple apparent consequences; namely, we would see Flubbernugget keep ZZZX in the analyses in the hopes of advancing a false read and we would have seen more people pursuing a ZZZX lynch at some point on Day 1. As far as I can recall, I'm the only one who brought up scumreading ZZZX on Day 1 in post 683.

That leaves us with (2) and (3). I believe the points I brought up in the previous paragraph also suggests that it's more likely to be (3) than (2). If Flubbernugget was really scum trying to stoke the fires of a town against town fight, I would think the points he mentioned in the beginning of the game would be worth repeating. But he never bothers to mention ZZZX again. Why is this? We've already seen ZZZX bemoaning the fact that he's an "easy lynch" so if scum were given the opportunity to throw suspicion on him, why wouldn't they? It has to make you wonder.

The only thing I'm left with is that ZZZX is Flubbernugget's partner and he was protecting him.

Do you have anything to add, ETL?

-TTH

[Heartless]

I just did the same exercise in Flubbernugget's ISO with Josh.

It appears that Flubbernugget was one of Josh's most vocal critics for most of the day. He was one of Flubber's "strongest scumreads" at the catch-up point (link for convenience) and remained that way for the rest of the day, but the only time he actually voted Josh was at the end of the day and he was the only vote on Josh at the time. I'm left with a couple likely scenarios: (1) Josh was a chosen townie and Flubbernugget figured that the wagon had enough people supporting it anyway to where he didn't need to vote him and risk getting caught on a chosen wagon or (2) Josh is Flubbernugget's teammate.

I think Flubbernugget's behavior of cheering on the wagon without actually joining it suggests (1) more than (2). If Josh was actually a scumbuddy, I would think Flubbernugget would go ahead and throw Josh under the bus to improve his public image. It makes more sense to me that Flubbernugget wanted to advance the lynch without leaving a trail that could lead back to him.

What's your take on this, Lying Cat or AngryPidgeon?

-TTH

[ZZZX]

I actually dont see how you are seeing things working.

Flubber would not push a chosen heavly because it would connect limitless lines to him.

Or that is how I see it would work.

I doubt it was one and I am not sure about 2 for josh.

about me I have no idea really. I dont find it weird If I was chosen. I find it actually possible. What do you think?

[ZZZX]

also flubber avoided talking about me to avoid giving hints that I am chosen maybe?

[Heartless]

In the interest of thoroughness and because I want to procrastinate on my mat sci homework for just a little bit longer, I did the same thing with Lying Cat and BBT.

For BBT

:

In the catchup series (link) I see that Flubbernugget doesn't really say anything one way or the other about BBT. In post 656, he criticizes Antihero's scumread on BBT. Then in post 729 he says he would consider voting BBT if Guilty Gunsmith told him to do so.

I think the most telling post has to be post 729. It reads to me like Flubbernugget already knew BBT was town and was preemptively trying to diffuse responsibility for the vote. If BBT was really Flubbernugget's scumbuddy, I would think Flubbernugget would either go ahead and throw him under the bus or defend him to the bitter end. It doesn't really help his public image to ask for permission from someone else to vote. With this in mind, Post 656 also makes sense. Flubbernugget would already know Antihero's read was bad and wouldn't hesitate to be critical of him for it.

My conclusion is that BBT is likely town just from Flubbernugget's treatment of him.

For Lying Cat

:

Other than getting righteously indignant over sthar's use of the term "gaslighting", there isn't any interaction between Flubbernugget and Lying Cat until post 729 when Flubbernugget emphatically declares he won't participate in the Lying Cat wagon. This could be for two reasons: (1) that Lying Cat is Flubbernugget's scumbuddy and he was trying to kill any momentum the wagon had or (2) Flubbernugget was bracing for a Lying Cat town flip and wanted to be a defender in order to improve public image.

Since mentions of Lying Cat are scarce in Flubbernugget's ISO, I can't really rule out either possibility based on Flubbernugget's ISO alone.

Lying Cat's vote is what I would consider to be the crucial vote in getting Flubbernugget lynched, though. Had sthar not placed that vote, it's doubtful Flubbernugget's wagon would have picked up the necessary momentum to secure a lynch. From this, I'm cautiously concluding that Lying Cat is likely town.

-------------

I know I haven't done swift or Guilty Gunsmith, but Antihero and I are on the same page that both of those players are very likely to be town. I might do these two just for fun, but off the top of my head I think the exchange between swift and Flubber was too heated to be scum against scum and I just flat out don't think Guilty Gunsmith, as scum, would've voted Flubber at the end of the day yesterday like they did.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Of course you would show up right when I have to go.

I actually dont see how you are seeing things working.

Flubber would not push a chosen heavly because it would connect limitless lines to him.

Or that is how I see it would work.

I doubt it was one and I am not sure about 2 for josh.

about me I have no idea really. I dont find it weird If I was chosen. I find it actually possible. What do you think?

You can already see what I think. I just talked about.

also flubber avoided talking about me to avoid giving hints that I am chosen maybe?

Or he wanted to avoid giving hints that you're his partner. This doesn't help me.

Do you have anything to say about yourself? I'm

still

wondering why you think BBT and AP are scum and you seem to want to absolutely refuse to give me anything to work with. Why? Just spit it out already.

-TTH

[Heartless]

I see AngryPidgeon, EspeciallyTheLies, and Jingle with green dots next to their names in sitechat. I really hope to get some input from you all because, from the current state where BBT is at L-1, I feel like I'm on a different page than everyone else (including Antihero) and I'm wondering where I'm going wrong.

Thanks in advance.

-TTH

[Guilty Gunsmith]

Ok TTH, jeez, I like literally just stepped out of the shoewr. I had the scratchiest face in the world due to not having showered in 48 hours so Im now here. Switching accounts is so much effort too, :<

[EspeciallyTheLies]

BBT is at L-1

And... how long has he been at L-1 without a hammer....

No on your ZZZX conclusion, yes on your Josh conclusion.

I'm at work until 9 pm ish tonight and have lots of homework beyond this. Getting to this for me will likely be tomorrow.

Quickly though, I feel that you have a very healthy dose of confbias going on. Great process, and I like what you're doing, but you're not being as objective as you should be and you're ignoring clear signals and mafia theory that should be fairly straight-forward, such as the fact that BBT spend all of yesterday resisting Flubber's wagon while

never giving an actual read on the slot

and then suddenly hammering out of nowhere.

1) Why would a townie flatly refuse a wagon without real reason and yet not be able to produce a concrete read on the person??
2) Why would the same townie then discard all of that huff and puff only to hammer the wagon? It's not like there weren't any other options that people were considering.

That's all. I need to go back to work now. The only reason I'm online is to make sure I don't fall behind here and elsewhere, but I don't have the time to type out long posts like this without also falling behind on my quota. ILY but I'm sorry, please don't rush me into a post that could be made tomorrow.

ETL

[Guilty Gunsmith]

(1) ZZZX is really a chosen townie and Flubbernugget slipped up and revealed that he knew this information, (2) ZZZX is just a vanilla townie and Flubbernugget fabricated this case to pit TSO and ZZZX against each other, and (3) ZZZX is Flubbernuggets teammate and the posts serve to scare the town into not voting ZZZX by planting this idea that he's chosen.

I find 3 to be the most likely of these, but that is purely based off of ZZZX's reaction to the push being to focus on who may or may not be chosen when I don't think town would particularly care at that point. also he rather pointedly distances from Flubber but then keeps doing his own thing instead of actually pursuing Flubber.

about me I have no idea really. I dont find it weird If I was chosen. I find it actually possible. What do you think?

The fuck is this post. You can't just posit that X is true then ask other people what they think. Especially in response to TTH posting about why she thinks the opposite in drawn out detail.

@TTH: I like your posts and I would say that I agree Z/LC are the most likely candidates based on that. Im still town on BBT and Swifty, meh on Josh.

[Guilty Gunsmith]

You can just assume that if a post is made from the GG account, its AP >.>

[EspeciallyTheLies]

k whatever. go ahead and vote whoever i dont care.

just get this over with. this game is stalling and no one is relenting so i will relent and then be all "i told you so" when this is over.

[Heartless]

That's all. I need to go back to work now. The only reason I'm online is to make sure I don't fall behind here and elsewhere, but I don't have the time to type out long posts like this without also falling behind on my quota. ILY but I'm sorry, please don't rush me into a post that could be made tomorrow.

Oh, I'm really sorry. I feel really bad now, I didn't want you to neglect anything. I just really want to get to place where I can feel good about what's going on, that's all.

BBT is at L-1

And... how long has he been at L-1 without a hammer....

Sorry but I'm not quite following you here, ETL. How does time spent at L-1 effect likelihood of him being scum?

Quickly though, I feel that you have a very healthy dose of confbias going on. Great process, and I like what you're doing, but you're not being as objective as you should be and you're ignoring clear signals and mafia theory that should be fairly straight-forward, such as the fact that BBT spend all of yesterday resisting Flubber's wagon while

never giving an actual read on the slot

and then suddenly hammering out of nowhere.

1) Why would a townie flatly refuse a wagon without real reason and yet not be able to produce a concrete read on the person??
2) Why would the same townie then discard all of that huff and puff only to hammer the wagon? It's not like there weren't any other options that people were considering.

What if BBT just really thought Flubber was town, didn't think the read all the way through, and then pride prevented him from ever re-evaluating that idea? That's the feeling I got from my questioning of him yesterday.

I'm hearing from you and Anti that BBT is defending scum and I'm hearing from AP and Lying Cat that he's being set up...

Anti, please tell me you can talk tonight.

-TTH

[Heartless]

somewhere, in whatever afterlife, arthur conan doyle is smiling

[Heartless]

alright

so

i will say that your theory all rests on one very important assumption: flubber was playing at optimal scumplay.

you neglect the possibility that flubber just froze up and didn't know how to react to a wagon on a scumbuddy and was just stalling.

[Heartless]

k whatever. go ahead and vote whoever i dont care.

just get this over with. this game is stalling and no one is relenting so i will relent and then be all "i told you so" when this is over.

etl

i sense a little annoyance. it's ok. i understand.

but think about it this way. tth asked you your opinion because she actually cares about what you think because she respects you. if she didn't give a flying fuck what you thought, she wouldn't have said anything to you.

ALSO

I'm hearing from you and Anti that BBT is defending scum and I'm hearing from AP and Lying Cat that he's being set up...

yeah, i'm shocked about

how little we're hearing from zzzx and bbt themselves

. like, they both seem pretty fucking oblivious right now.

hey ZZZX, wake up, will you please? TTH is actually trying to engage you and all you want to talk about is some shit about her analysis on flubber whilst avoiding anything she's asking about ... you know...

your

reads. she's asking you all these things about why you're scumreading ap and bbt and whoever else and you have

nothing to say about that?

jeez...

and hey BBT. we're talking right now about WHAT THE HELL WENT WRONG WITH FLUBBER YESTERDAY. you've got some explaining to do.

it seems like everyone outside of [us, GG, lying cat] are just sitting here silently shuffling around votes.

quit it. COME TALK TO US.

[ZZZX]

Ap is a gut read. He makes me scum read him all the time.

Reminds me of organic, honestly I was scum reading him in my heart even when i was scum lol

Bbt is more serious, look at the push and avoiding the way on. Reminds me of shreddies micro where he did the same going thing. ISo him in both games and tell me ur result.

Now Josh is w townread of mine but when I iso,d him I didn't find the aggression of town Josh but found passiveness of scum Josh,

Care to ellaporate Josh?

[Josh_B]

What if BBT just really thought Flubber was town, didn't think the read all the way through, and then pride prevented him from ever re-evaluating that idea?

Then he would have reevaluated the game according to the information from the flip. Exactly like every other good townie does.

As to the rest of it, TTH and AntiHero. I think you are stalling for no reason. You seem to be coming to the same conclusions that others are only you are second guessing yourself. Sometimes town gets a perfect win.

Sthar said she was going to make a case on me. I'd like to see her either do that or cast her vote in some other way.

I'd like to see some sort of involvement from awest. on this.

I'm also wiling to bet my life on this. especially if BBT flips chosen.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Besides what I've already said, BBT also said that there wasn't a bus on D1, yet in order for him to vote me, he has to believe that there was a bus.

Maybe I should have been clearer. I don't think scum bussed on the FN lynch.

yeah, i'm shocked about

how little we're hearing from zzzx and bbt themselves

. like, they both seem pretty fucking oblivious right now.

and hey BBT. we're talking right now about WHAT THE HELL WENT WRONG WITH FLUBBER YESTERDAY. you've got some explaining to do.

it seems like everyone outside of [us, GG, lying cat] are just sitting here silently shuffling around votes.

quit it. COME TALK TO US.

I don't really know what to do. Like, my reads were so far off yesterday (not liking the FN wagon when it was on scum, scum-reading Heartless when they obv town now) that quite frankly I'm a little embarrassed and I don't know where to go. I

really

don't want to re-read this whole game because there was soooo much shit posted on D1. So it kinda puts me back to the drawing board.

As I stated earlier, I don't think scum bussed so that left me with awestfie, Josh and Z. I'm still town-reading awestfie (albeit not as strong as my D1 town-read due to her D2 disappearance, but still town) so it's between Z and Josh for me.

Then he would have reevaluated the game according to the information from the flip. Exactly like every other good townie does.

I haven't re-evaluated? I'm pretty sure I'm voting you based on the FN wagon and lynch.

I'd like to see some sort of involvement from awest. on this.

I'm also wiling to bet my life on this. especially if BBT flips chosen.

What does this mean?

[Wickedestjr]

Bump.