↑ gossamer wings wrote:I'm townreading Baboon because Mara's conviction feels genuine. Tammy's also played quite a few games with Mara and has her as town based on meta. She also liked
Post 301 as something Mara is unlikely to post as scum.
Post 311 is another reason I'm townreading Baboon. If they are scum, it makes little sense for them to limit their mislynch options within the neighborhood. Here are
two games with scum-Mara for comparison. I played in the second one and Tammy played in both. From what I remember from the one I played in, she doesn't have the same conviction and certainty when she is making pushes as scum. Compare with
NY 169 where she spent quite a bit of time pushing me when we were both town and it came across as very genuine. I also feel that Mara often hides her real reasons and gives up surface level reasoning so she doesn't truly give away how she reads people. Also, what about Honeybee's
Post 308 resonated?
re: Honey -- He agreed with me about Fonz and the neighborhood, and I could see what he was saying about 5-Off and Nashville. I was hoping to hear more from Honey but he's disappeared and that's not good.
re: 301 -- Why wouldn't scumMara post that?
re: 311 -- I disagree that scum wouldn't limit mislynches to the neighborhood. It would remove pressure on partners, so if you're confident you won't be lynched, you're making it very easy to kill town. We also don't know the ratio of town/scum, but the neighborhood might be a better ratio for the scum than the game itself.
re: Mara's scum meta -- I haven't read the two scum games yet. I might later but I'm terrible with meta analysis so I'm gonna just defer to you on this. What I noticed is that the games are from over a year ago, so even if they lacked certainty then, I don't think it's very conclusive evidence for their play in THIS game. Especially since that's a normal progression in developing one's scum game -- newer scum tend to lack certainty, then they overcompensate trying to fix that. So I don't think your meta analysis is applicable to this game.
re: Mara's town meta -- I started reading that town game but it's extremely long and, given how bad I am at meta, not the best use of my time. Are there any specific posts you can direct me to for your point (hiding reasoning and certainty)? If not, that's fine. I'll defer to you on this too.
↑ gossamer wings wrote: ↑ FourTrouble wrote:F-16, what're your thoughts on the specific points I've brought up about Baboon?
I was addressing your concerns in general. Is there a specific post you want me to respond to?
~ F-16
The "certainty" point, in posts 531, 537, and 576. Your response seems to be, "Mara's certainty is genuine, plus she hides her reasoning as town." What is genuine about her certainty? Has she really put that much effort to get me lynched? Which posts are showing you genuine conviction? Also, do you think Mara is hiding her reasoning in this game? Or is her reasoning just very weak? Or are her stated reasons not her real reasons (i.e. they're "contrived" reasons)? Can you see what I'm getting at here? If someone hides their reasoning, how do you know the certainty is genuine? I'm very wary of calling certainty genuine unless it squares up with a thought process. The thought process doesn't even have to be THAT good but there needs to be one.
↑ gossamer wings wrote: ↑ FourTrouble wrote:(for some reason, I always assume players in hydras are good, which isn't always the case).
Why?
↑ FourTrouble wrote:F-16, you might have a point about Baboon. I've been focusing more on Mara's posts than Ceph. Ceph is taking more of a backseat, which I suppose could be a town-tell, relative to other games. Still, their analysis is so shitty, hard to believe competent scum would be so bad as town.
What do you think of my point that Mara often hides her real reasoning for her pushes? Also, I think Ceph strongly prefers scum to town and his scumgame is more developed and articulate.
↑ FourTrouble wrote:This is dead on. Just skimming through that game, huge difference in Mara's play here.
What are those differences? Also, did you skim through the game links that I posted?
re: hydras -- I have no idea. I just realized it this game, but all the hydras I've played with have had at least one strong player.
re: Mara -- I commented on this briefly above but to go further into it, I don't see Mara hiding her reasoning here. She provided reasons. The problem was the lack of depth to those reasons, which made me think they were fake. If you're saying she's town but still articulating false reasons for suspecting me, that's strange. How do you distinguish between fake reasons from town and fake reasons from scum?
re: Timeshift -- I made an error when skimming that game. I just took a look at Mara's posts but it turns out Mara was in a hydra, and I was only seeing her posts that were a mistake and the ones from after she replaced in.
↑ gossamer wings wrote: ↑ FourTrouble wrote:Initially, I cast my finger at Baboon because of Ceph's post in the Intern PM, which reminded me of the kinda manipulative posts that F-16 was talking about. That was a very weak read, though. I didn't vote them until recently. And the vote -- the stronger read -- is based on Mara's posts, after Ceph started signing.
What did he say in the intern PM and which manipulative post in particular did it remind you of?
Can I quote from the Intern PM? Not sure what the rules are here but that'd be helpful to explain. There is a line of posts there that I felt manipulated by in the same way I felt during Tales of You. The posts are different in approach but similar in how I felt in response (my immediate reaction to them was, "Baboon is 100% town," followed by, "wait, this is so fake, can't believe I got tricked by that").