Mini 1608--Mafia on the Air(Fin)

[fferyllt]

I need to know if your Fonz read has changed based on how day 1 turned out.

There were things I saw in my catch up that I didn't like, but I brushed over them because of your stance. FT calling him out as scum with Honey bee after the csareo/Anatole stuff really stuck out to me, though.

I was also pissed that he hammered Honey bee before I had a chance to write out some comprehensive reads. I'd made it really clear I was hoping for more time in my last few posts. The game day was almost over and ordinarily I wouldn't have minded so much, but with only 48 hours to get my head into this game, it really bugged me. I could have wound up dead overnight with very little input into the game state.

[Cutty Shark]

I need to know if your Fonz read has changed based on how day 1 turned out.

There were things I saw in my catch up that I didn't like, but I brushed over them because of your stance. FT calling him out as scum with Honey bee after the csareo/Anatole stuff really stuck out to me, though.

I was also pissed that he hammered Honey bee before I had a chance to write out some comprehensive reads. I'd made it really clear I was hoping for more time in my last few posts. The game day was almost over and ordinarily I wouldn't have minded so much, but with only 48 hours to get my head into this game, it really bugged me. I could have wound up dead overnight with very little input into the game state.

A little bit, yes.

Look a the honey bee wagon: it was stuck at 3 for quite a while, then skrew jumped us on, and almost immediately we got three followers on it (Lissa, you, Fonz). I would say chances are pretty good that someone bussed at the end there. I don't think it's Lissa (in fact the end of the day makes me feel even better about Lissa in general).

You telegraphed your stance beforehand and as such I can see the potential town motivation for you going on when you did.
Fonz had Honey Bee in a group of lynchables (FT/Nash/Honey) and his jump was clearly reactive to us giving the wagon momentum when we did. It's not inherently scummy, but it's entirely plausible that he had them in a group of lynchables and hoped Honey wasn't the one picked. I'll say if Fonz is scum, Nashville probably isn't.

My D1 stance, as it is, is one particular thing from his ISO that seemed likely for me to come from town before scum. There is really nowhere I can go with it other than to start turning over rocks and reevaluating, and I'm probably, overall, much more willing to talk about what it is today.

@Oka - your predecessor said he thought Fonz was town due to the flavor bit he had on him. Do you share this opinion?

-b

[fferyllt]

I would have waited to put my vote down until I was completely caught up (I still had about 10 unread pages at that point iirc) and written some thoughts (like pointing out that we need to know if 5-off's information is absolute regarding scum in the neighborhood - I worried overnight that I'd die without getting that into the thread). But Honeybee voting FT (who I definitely wasn't scumreading that point) felt like really bad potential momentum change. I tried to counter it and put the focus back on her.

[Cutty Shark]

Can't really argue with the results there.

Other things on my radar:
I'm still worried about the AK 'item' thing; I see no one that has telegraphed being able to give an item, a whole bunch of people who I'm pretty sure can't, and if such a person exists I am wondering why they didn't target AK

Nashville still bugs me and probably will bug me as long as Titus keeps Titusing (the fucking town beard thing I interpreted as "we're town enabling scum to achieve their wincon by having bad reads" and, well, after last nights flip my reaction is a big fat fucking *wanking motion*)

5-off has coasted off that early towncred from the claim and done little else, and that's another place I wouldn't mind shining a light today.

ffery how likely do you think it is that the hood has a tacit scum observer in it and the posting members (5-off/lissa/bp) are all town?

-b

[Anatole Kuragin]

I think there's a pretty good chance that Lissa is in the same faction as Honey Bee -

In Honey Bee's 12 posts she non-chalantly defends Lissa in several and from what I can tell never addresses her once.

As I said yesterday before we lynched Honey Bee - Lissa gave me a similar vibe early on that looked like trying to give really generic statements and reads and stay under the radar.

Can anyone in the hood say how long the neighborhood PT was up before 5-off gave the info that there was likely scum in the neighborhood?

[fferyllt]

Can't really argue with the results there.

Other things on my radar:
I'm still worried about the AK 'item' thing; I see no one that has telegraphed being able to give an item, a whole bunch of people who I'm pretty sure can't, and if such a person exists I am wondering why they didn't target AK

Nashville still bugs me and probably will bug me as long as Titus keeps Titusing (the fucking town beard thing I interpreted as "we're town enabling scum to achieve their wincon by having bad reads" and, well, after last nights flip my reaction is a big fat fucking *wanking motion*)

5-off has coasted off that early towncred from the claim and done little else, and that's another place I wouldn't mind shining a light today.

ffery how likely do you think it is that the hood has a tacit scum observer in it and the posting members (5-off/lissa/bp) are all town?

-b

eavesdroppers are a thing. It's possible that there's a scum neighbor who chose not to be active after 5-off's post. It's possible there's a scum player with a traditional eavesdropping role (and 5-off's role pm might be suggesting that rather than the former).

I don't have a real sense of the likelihood. Kinda leaning toward maybe 50-50 that one of those two possibilities is actually in play.

[Anatole Kuragin]

Cutty - I don't know what to tell you except that as far as I know I have not received an item. I assumed it was something a player gave, like a fruit vendor, but maybe it is something that the mod communicates if something happens in the game?

[Anatole Kuragin]

Can't really argue with the results there.

Other things on my radar:
I'm still worried about the AK 'item' thing; I see no one that has telegraphed being able to give an item, a whole bunch of people who I'm pretty sure can't, and if such a person exists I am wondering why they didn't target AK

Nashville still bugs me and probably will bug me as long as Titus keeps Titusing (the fucking town beard thing I interpreted as "we're town enabling scum to achieve their wincon by having bad reads" and, well, after last nights flip my reaction is a big fat fucking *wanking motion*)

5-off has coasted off that early towncred from the claim and done little else, and that's another place I wouldn't mind shining a light today.

ffery how likely do you think it is that the hood has a tacit scum observer in it and the posting members (5-off/lissa/bp) are all town?

-b

eavesdroppers are a thing. It's possible that there's a scum neighbor who chose not to be active after 5-off's post. It's possible there's a scum player with a traditional eavesdropping role (and 5-off's role pm might be suggesting that rather than the former).

I don't have a real sense of the likelihood. Kinda leaning toward maybe 50-50 that one of those two possibilities is actually in play.

This is sorta what I was thinking - hopefully 5-off didn't immediately go into the thread and say "guys there is scum here." Because why wouldn't the scum just lurk?

[Cutty Shark]

eavesdroppers are a thing. It's possible that there's a scum neighbor who chose not to be active after 5-off's post. It's possible there's a scum player with a traditional eavesdropping role (and 5-off's role pm might be suggesting that rather than the former).

I agree that I want that sorted ASAP
I'm just trying to get a feel for what the 'bastard' mechanic is in this game, because so far I've not seen it

-b

[Cutty Shark]

AK how is HB defending Lissa? I'm not really seeing either direct defense or a chainsaw

-b

[Cutty Shark]

Nashville are we gonna get any clarification on what you did to F-16 last night?

-b

[Lissa]

I think there's a pretty good chance that Lissa is in the same faction as Honey Bee -

In Honey Bee's 12 posts she non-chalantly defends Lissa in several and from what I can tell never addresses her once.

As I said yesterday before we lynched Honey Bee - Lissa gave me a similar vibe early on that looked like trying to give really generic statements and reads and stay under the radar.

Can anyone in the hood say how long the neighborhood PT was up before 5-off gave the info that there was likely scum in the neighborhood?

Where did she defend me? I can't find it.

I ISOed her. This is all I can find where she even referenced me.

-Fonz– I totally agree with ft that not voting lissa was bad. Hesitance to vote always is a scum tell to me and the no reasoning on why rubs me in the wrong way. Plus there's really no point to paying attention to post restrictions anyways so I am perturbed why he focused on players who mentioned it.
Fonz needs to answer FT's q when he get's back.

@ fonz:
Lissa was not in any danger of getting lynched nor did anybody even scum read her beforehand. Why would you consider voting her to be “hounding”? What I've gathered from my experience and advice in these games is that scum have a certain self consciousness when it comes to their vote. I vote where my biggest suspicion lies, because that's what makes a townie threatening to scum, what makes my words actually have any worth to anyone. But you felt that it was better to keep your vote on someone that you were wanting a reaction to, even though your vote literally looked like a no content vote, same as his. You admitted that lissa was scummier, so why is voting her counterproductive to a reaction?
To me, it looked like you didn't want to be accused of attacking weak targets, but didn't also want to look like you were not pursuing anyone. Hence the hesitation.

And she was calling out Fonz for not voting me. I wouldn't call that defending me.

aaand I will check on that last bit.

[Nashville Dreams]

Thanks for reminding me about Baboon.
Ceph, why, upon the hood being outted, did you go "I can't do my clever hood plan now!" ? I thought about it and the hood being outted didn't really hurt your plan whatsoever. What hurt it was when you told us what the plan would have been. Why didn't you just keep going with the plan?

Because:
-There was no longer even the slightest smidge of trust going on there anymore
-All activity there ceased permanently the moment we were outted
-I had to come out in public re: my belief that FT was the scum neighbor, which would make the whole thing worthless

These flips are sort of breaking my head, but the first thing that comes to mind is the large number of big scary town players who didn't get shot.

-Ceph

You know, you and Mara are one of the big scary town players, right?

Are we? I did nothing but push town to death yesterday.

Posts like this are why I scumread you Ceph.

CS, patience. I will be out most of the day, Mala and I need to sync and something else needs to happen. Give us 48 hours tops.

~Titus

[Nashville Dreams]

The something else just happened. I will need to sync with my other head. The mod is insisting on giving us results via flavortext alone...

~Titus

[Anatole Kuragin]

I could get behind that lynch. Honey Bee is giving me pretty similar vibes to Lissa.

I'll try and make a quote quilt.

It's kinda tricky because she posted so sporadically and because she didn't directly mention Lissa so it's not really obvious, but basically I come in and start bringin' the ruckus and calling baboon and lissa scum, then honey bee comes in and questions me about it. For a player that barely posted at all and that we know now was scum, it's kinda weird how she picked her targets.

@Ak: what was your lissa reason because of? Sorry if I missed it.

~600 posts later I'm questioning fonzy and the neighborhood about the reasoning that Lissa was definitely town and Honey Bee shows up again a page or so later voting me and basically tunneling me the rest of the time she's alive as I continue to be the only player scumreading Lissa.

I still stand by my thinking but things have happened that probably make this discussion better for another day. Also this happened forever ago and I don't see any other things about you.

Also fonz if you think my arguments are shit you can just tell me why instead of just blowing me off. Calling someone a village idiot = usually to claim whether or not they're town or scum, not just as a side statement. And scum have done this to me before so excuse me.

5-off seems to have had not a lot of time for mafia too I guess? Please look at my questions to you when you get back. I haven't forgotten you.

My feelings after reading the thread is that the last few pages haven't made me like ak and csareo. Ak I have been perusing their iso and I haven't seen anywhere that they're actively pushing to find someone's alignment or directing their efforts anywhere else. Their vote is parked on baboon and the conviction that he finds about a few meta reads and one post is totally wrong to me. Ak do you have any other scum reads? And how do you feel about fonz's latest posts?
vote: Anatole kuragin

Kinda weird too because the only people I really was pushing were Baboon and Lissa at this point.

I prod the gang a bit more and then say this when we're discussing Lissa, and I criticize Lissa's reads a bit.

Honey Bee is giving me pretty similar vibes to Lissa.

Totally disagree on this. Lissa is very likely town. 919 should clear Lissa for good. I thought that explanation for her position on me was not only genuine but showed that she's reading the game from a town mindset.

Yeah, I'm aware you guys disagree. I'm talking gut reads and Lissa reminds me a lot of Honey Bee.

Quoting someone's posts and saying you agree with them doesn't prove they are town.

Guess who's back from hiatus. Honey Bee.

Anatole: how are you ready to lynch me already? You have never directed at me any effort to find out my alignment and now when two people dislike me you suddenly want to jump on? And you ignored my questions and accusations against you completely..

4t:

-5 off- Read their iso, a bunch of side questions that I've seen no conclusion to, no pushing for anything. 294 is suppose to be a joke right? It feels out of place with the way the rest of your posts feel. What are your reads as of now?

294 was a joke, yes. It's still early yet to make reads (even light ones), in my opinion. If you are going to FOS me for that, I will gladly direct you to places where I've publicly stated that DP1 in mafia is useless and that only gut reads matter. My gut hasn't spoken much yet. I think that the conversation on whether or not FT stole reasoning from whoever that person was is irrelevant. FT is full of himself, he dismisses the analysis of others because they are not-FT. The two people that strike me as odd are Nashville and the guy who quoted the "hydra gimmick" thing, but there's nothing significant there yet. Lissa's looking good so far. I want to hear more from F-16, his hydra seems to kinda suck.

@ 5-off:
Why is day phase one useless? I get the sense that your posting is bidding your time which now makes sense, but I guess it's strange to me that a person who relies on gut would discount the first day (as people who usually do so rely on vc nk analysis, pr roles too). For reference, my gut is usually active very early before I even really think about the game.
Also, when is the time to start having reads?

My questions towards him are aimed at at figuring out his playstyle, because I am trying to determine if my read on him was actually true or just an extension of how he views the game. Scum like taking less stances and have more interest in throwing speculation and questions on the side lines. 5-off's play resembles that to me, since I couldn't find anything he interpreted from his questions. But since he claims that it's more of his playstyle to not have a strong day 1, I asked for justification so I could know he's not bsing his theory and that it actually has logic and thought to me. And his response is understandable.

He's my problem with DP1s. People then analyze those early reads and tidbits of "analysis" which is terrible for two reasons. First of all, you are taking reads that already had a low chance of being correct and then basing your reads on those reads, multiplying chances of being wrong, and you are creating reasoning that may not be true in order to have more "thorough analysis." I like to think that the mafia wouldn't make errors on DP1 if they were good as any errors would inherently be unforced, and that leads towns that try their damnedest on DP1 to catch scum to shooting themselves in the foot.

The general sense I am getting is that 5-offs is careful in his analysis day 1 because towns tend to blow things out of proportion and it's better to keep your reads more open so that you are not clouded by confirmation bias. So I can understand a low key style and not wanting to spark fire and let scum hide day 1. If he had said something about his gut “needing flips” or he prefers solving by roles, I would continue having a scum read on him (because it would make no sense). But now I'm more comfortable with him, and he's given

Also that's how I speak normally, I just like words like that (I use please a lot actually).

Gw:
The reason why it's wrong is because (again) their interests betray their vote. Ak has admitted that he's not the best at day one, but instead of going about figuring out his read on baboon or doubting himself, he keeps it parked on baboon and never gives it a second thought. In other words his thinking and what he's saying doesn't match up.

As for a full reads list, other than Ak and Csareo I don't have any other scum reads. The only person I am comfortable completely ignoring for today's lynch is Four trouble: his aggression and behavior feel natural to me. Otherwise I am not a big fan of town reads, so I have anyone else as null.

[Nashville Dreams]

A townbeard is a term I made up. It is a player scum use to actively appear town. I rely on them heavily as scum so I am quick to point it out as town.

~Titus

[Anatole Kuragin]

Maybe I'm reading too much into Honey Bee's weird posting but I am liking Lissa for the hoodscum more than Baboon these days.

[fferyllt]

who is using bork?

[Nashville Dreams]

Can't really argue with the results there.

Other things on my radar:
I'm still worried about the AK 'item' thing; I see no one that has telegraphed being able to give an item, a whole bunch of people who I'm pretty sure can't, and if such a person exists I am wondering why they didn't target AK

Nashville still bugs me and probably will bug me as long as Titus keeps Titusing (the fucking town beard thing I interpreted as "we're town enabling scum to achieve their wincon by having bad reads" and, well, after last nights flip my reaction is a big fat fucking *wanking motion*)

5-off has coasted off that early towncred from the claim and done little else, and that's another place I wouldn't mind shining a light today.

ffery how likely do you think it is that the hood has a tacit scum observer in it and the posting members (5-off/lissa/bp) are all town?

-b

eavesdroppers are a thing. It's possible that there's a scum neighbor who chose not to be active after 5-off's post. It's possible there's a scum player with a traditional eavesdropping role (and 5-off's role pm might be suggesting that rather than the former).

I don't have a real sense of the likelihood. Kinda leaning toward maybe 50-50 that one of those two possibilities is actually in play.

This is sorta what I was thinking - hopefully 5-off didn't immediately go into the thread and say "guys there is scum here." Because why wouldn't the scum just lurk?

Suppose the scum in the hood is the hardest to lynch generally. Scum net themselves an ml to two and get towncred.

[Nashville Dreams]

who is using bork?

I was thinking my scumteam from yesterday. Given HB flipped scum, that needs revision.

[Anatole Kuragin]

I'm not convinced there's a lurking scum but I would like to hear more from 5-off about his claim in the hood before I really make my mind up there. In a game this sized I think 4 is the max we're going to have in a neighborhood but obviously that's just speculation.

[Nashville Dreams]

AK can you give back items you receive?

~Titus

[Anatole Kuragin]

I have a role line like anyone else that says If you are holding an item ______________________________

there is not another line and there is nothing about giving or receiving an item, just that action

[fferyllt]

agree that 5 seems high. but in her last normal mini nati had an ask town 3 player neighborhood. not totally ruling 5 out.

[fferyllt]

ask = all. damn phone