Mini 1599: Greatest Idea Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #650 (ISO) » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:50 am

Post by Marky Mark »

Reminiscence wrote:Plan:
lynch one of me/DLA today.
If we mislynch, aun watch aronis while aronis roll a dice between roleblocking Marky Mark and the one who didn't get lynched.

As misguided as this plan is, the fact that Rem is so willing to lay down his life seems town - scum tend to try and avoid dying at any cost.

aun wrote:@Marky Mark: My point was that I think you unlikely to be in group scum. But yeah, you're number 2 on my list right now by PoE even though your play has been pretty good. You leaving options open was actually one of the things that was bothering me, so I guess if my play looks like that, too, it's certainly something town could do. I see your point about no-lynching though. I mostly want a lynch today because I expect to die tonight so I won't be able to have much of an impact on the rest of the game.


If you are indeed town and are killed, surely your views will have more impact as they will be coming from a conftown as opposed to a potential scum? Ironically, my townread of you has decreased somewhat over the course of today so you being killed (or not) in the event we no lynch would help me tie down my reads. I've read through the middle bit of the quoted paragraph and it seems a thinly veiled way of saying "if you overlook the scummy thing that I've done, I'll overlook you doing a similar thing earlier", although I could be reading too much into this.

As to no-lynching in general, I am starting to grow increasingly suspicious of those who are strongly against it. Our next lynch could win or lose us the game and frankly I want to be sure we have all the information on the table when we make it, because right now I am really starting to second guess myself. The argument in particular about there being less townies around to influence the discussion is rubbish - it is far outweighed by the fact there are less mislynch targets around. I am genuinely worried the scum are trying to encourage us to throw the game away by rushing into a desicion.
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Post Post #651 (ISO) » Fri Sep 19, 2014 11:06 am

Post by reinoe »

If we're not lynching Rem, then I'd like to lynch one of the players who discarded vanilla townie.

That's DarklightA or Aronis. Since I have a "leans scum" read on Aronis, can we lynch himplz?
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

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Post Post #652 (ISO) » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:04 pm

Post by Aronis »

Prod dodge.

I feel like we should just lynch now. Nothing's happening.
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Post Post #653 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 5:40 am

Post by awesomeusername »

@reinoe: You've been repeatedly ignoring my questions about DarkLight. Why are you town reading him? Is there something I should know before lynching him? I'm putting this at the top of my post so you can't miss it.

Anyway, I thought about the no-lynch thing overnight. Maybe you're right, maybe we're rushing into this too fast. But here's what's been bothering me about the no-lynch push:

1) The two of you who are pushing for no-lynch are at the bottom of my reads list. If DarkLight is scum, a no-lynch would be very much to his advantage and definitely something he would push for; he'd have to. He did start this push before he became the main suspect, though, so perhaps this is invalid.

2) There are players right now who I am unwilling to lynch today because they cannot be the strongman. So I'm quite possibly not getting any information out of tonight, but scum has the chance to either WIFOM us like crazy or remove a townie they think is getting too close to the truth. Or both. I guess my watch could give me information, but I've been really bad at using it in the past.

3) I want to have a say in the MYLO/LYLO decision, because I'm the only person I trust completely right now. About a page ago, I was the top townread and the only useful PR, so I would've been the obvious kill (so I guess this discussion has been good in that respect :P ). Even if I do die, don't take my word as infallible since scum could just be killing me because of my role or WIFOMing. I guess I'm probably overestimating my own importance, anyway.

…I don't know what to do. On the one hand, I can't deny that it would be nice to have one more shot at my watch and have one suspect fewer, but on the other hand, I'll likely die and I think my reads are right. Like, I too keep second-guessing myself, because DarkLight isn't actually very scummy at all, but every time I can't figure out who else could possibly be scum. Most everyone who I think is town is ready to lynch, but we need the town to be fully ready before we lynch. My own biases aside, I can't tell whether lynching or no-lynching is better for the collective town.

Regardless, it looks like we're going to no-lynch, so we should plan accordingly. I actually think it's better not to plan anything at all for tonight so as not to give scum a roadmap, but if you want to try to direct the kill using my watch that might be worth considering.
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Post Post #654 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 5:55 am

Post by awesomeusername »

4) Apathy's also an issue. reinoe, Rem, and Aronis seem kinda out of it right now due to apathy, and no-lynching would only prolong the game and make things worse. It would be easier for scum to persuade them.

That said, I'm actually starting to lean towards no-lynching now that I'm an actual suspect, and you're making me second-guess myself. This way scum must either kill me, removing a suspect, which is good, or let me use my watch, which is also good. I'm frustrated Rem chose VT though, since if he was doctor we could confirm me as watcher tonight.
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Post Post #655 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:43 am

Post by reinoe »

@mod

For future reference, could I have governored "No Lynch"?
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

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Post Post #656 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:44 am

Post by reinoe »

awesomeusername wrote:@reinoe: You've been repeatedly ignoring my questions about DarkLight. Why are you town reading him? Is there something I should know before lynching him? I'm putting this at the top of my post so you can't miss it.

I'm null-reading him but I'd be willing to lynch because of the "vanilla townie" discard.
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

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Post Post #657 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:49 am

Post by Reminiscence »

awesomeusername wrote:4) Apathy's also an issue. reinoe, Rem, and Aronis seem kinda out of it right now due to apathy

More of being busy, actually.

awesomeusername wrote:That said, I'm actually starting to lean towards no-lynching now that I'm an actual suspect

And those who are suspecting you are your scumreads (or bottom of your readlist), aren't they?
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Post Post #658 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:55 am

Post by Reminiscence »

awesomeusername wrote:@Rem: What reasons do you have for believing there's only one scum left?

Most of it is gut, but not entirely.
We only had one kill since the vig was dead, so it is most likely to have either 1)1 werewolf left or 2)1+ groupscum left.
However, based on us having a hard time to discren scum from this group, it makes me inclined to believe that we only have 1 scum left.
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Post Post #659 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 8:40 am

Post by Marky Mark »

awesomeusername wrote:This way scum must either kill me, removing a suspect, which is good, or let me use my watch, which is also good.

This basically hits the nail on the head. At the start of the day, I was mildly inclined towards a no-lynch but equally I was thinking "aun is obvtown so they will just kill him and we won't have learnt anything new". Fast forward to now, and I am less confident in my townread of you which in my eyes is a very good reason to go through with the no lynch. As to the wall against no-lynching, as I have said before the fact you have gone to such lengths to argue against what is generally accepted as optimal play is making me paranoid that you have something to hide.

Deadline wise, we have a day and a bit left. I am kinda worried about being rushed into a bad decision if we decide to lynch, particularly given stuff like and , showing some players are overly eager to rush into a lynch without thinking things through. If we do have to lynch, I feel Darklight would be our best bet, but I don't want to potentially throw away all our hard work by rushing into a decision when there was no need to.
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Post Post #660 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:02 am

Post by reinoe »

Why is there such a strong presumption that there's two scum? What is it based on?

What are we doing tomorrow after the no lynch today and serve up a townie on a silver platter? Do we no-lynch again and again and again? This no-lynch is looking dumber as deadline approaches. I'm suspicious of everyone suggesting it.

VOTE: DarklightA
Scum typically need to fabricate reasons for scumreads...

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Post Post #661 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:05 am

Post by Reminiscence »

Does It mean anything by me not hammering here?
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Post Post #662 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:06 am

Post by Reminiscence »

reinoe wrote:Why is there such a strong presumption that there's two scum? What is it based on?

What are we doing tomorrow after the no lynch today and serve up a townie on a silver platter? Do we no-lynch again and again and again? This no-lynch is looking dumber as deadline approaches. I'm suspicious of everyone suggesting it.

VOTE: DarklightA

I think that presumption is based on the precaution.
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Post Post #663 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:07 am

Post by Zaicon »

reinoe wrote:
@mod

For future reference, could I have governored "No Lynch"?

No.
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Post Post #664 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:31 am

Post by DarkLightA »

reinoe wrote:What are we doing tomorrow after the no lynch today and serve up a townie on a silver platter? Do we no-lynch again and again and again? This no-lynch is looking dumber as deadline approaches. I'm suspicious of everyone suggesting it.

:facepalm:
No, we don't no-lynch again and again and again.

We're even-numbered, which is sub-optimal in case we're in MyLo. Becoming odd-numbered will eliminate a potential suspect, and make it easier for town to lynch correctly.

The push to lynch me worries me, because there must be at least one town player on my wagon. This/these players are thereby putting town at a disadvantage by wanting to lynch today rather than no-lynching.

@Rem: You are confirmed to not be on a team of two scum. This puts my mind to ease a bit, as it means that if you're scum we're not in MyLo and therefore no lynching isn't a #1 priority. I'd still like to do it though as I think we're shooting ourselves in the foot by not doing so.
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Post Post #665 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:32 am

Post by awesomeusername »

UNVOTE:

Augh, so torn. I'll make a decision within 8 hours, I promise.
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Post Post #666 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:44 am

Post by awesomeusername »

@Marky Mark: What could possibly change your mind tonight about DarkLight? From your point of view, Rem and I are the only other choices for strongman, and you're townreading both of us, especially Rem. The only things I can think of that could change your mind would be me watching someone else (namely Rem) make the kill or DarkLight dying. Scum killing DarkLight would be pretty stupid. And if I'm scum, my watch doesn't mean anything to you. So literally the only thing that could happen tonight that would make you not want to lynch DarkLight would be me watching Rem kill somebody, right? Did I leave anything out?

@Rem: I encourage you to also decide whether you want to lynch today or not.

Also it is now confirmed to me that there is scum in {DarkLightA, Marky Mark}.
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Post Post #667 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:46 am

Post by awesomeusername »

The only way we lose here is if Marky Mark is group scum.

*crosses fingers*

VOTE: DarkLightA
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Post Post #668 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:20 am

Post by Marky Mark »

reinoe wrote:What are we doing tomorrow after the no lynch today and serve up a townie on a silver platter? Do we no-lynch again and again and again? This no-lynch is looking dumber as deadline approaches. I'm suspicious of everyone suggesting it.

So this is really scummy, the logic is completely flawed. You are pushing for a lynch over a nl for the wrong reasons, and the fact you were pretty easy about lynching either aronis or darklight suggests to me you are just trying to push a lynch through at all costs.

@aun, well the fact that you could be the strongman. Play wise, you and darklight have both been towny (although you morso than him) but could both potentially be the strongman by poe. I'd rather not flip a coin and guess if there is no need to, especially as it could spell game over should we get it wrong.
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Post Post #669 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:49 am

Post by awesomeusername »

DarkLight is confscum to me now, cool. Not voting for anyone else until he's dead (also checking and double-checking my logic furiously).

@Marky Mark: I realize that I'm a suspect, too. I don't think there's anything more I can do to look town since looking town from here is optimal scum play. I'm just trying to do what's best. All day I've been trying to think of a way to confirm myself as watcher tonight by correctly saying who Aronis roleblocked, but any such plan can be foiled by scum killing Aronis, unless he can block himself.

@Mod: Is a roleblocker allowed to target himself? If so, is he considered to have targeted himself to tracker/watcher roles?


I guess you might be more inclined to trust me if I wait until tomorrow to pus the lynch through but I'm very concerned that this chance won't come again. Does that make sense? What do you think town-me should do? Also, answer my question in 666.
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Post Post #670 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:49 am

Post by awesomeusername »

Wait wait wait.

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #671 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:56 am

Post by awesomeusername »

Marky Mark or Rem could still be single scum. I know that if there's group scum DarkLight is scum but we don't know there's group scum. Here's all the options, from a neutral point of view:

  • DarkLightA + someone else
  • awesomeusername + someone else
  • DarkLightA
  • awesomeusername
  • Marky Mark
  • Reminiscence


If Marky Mark's scum by himself, and the DarkLight lynch goes through with say Rem hammering, he could easily make me the lynch tomorrow and game over. So if DarkLight's not scum we may be hosed. I need to think more.
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Post Post #672 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:09 am

Post by DarkLightA »

awesomeusername wrote:Also it is now confirmed to me that there is scum in {DarkLightA, Marky Mark}.

Where are you getting this from?
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Post Post #673 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:30 am

Post by Marky Mark »

@aun with regard to 666, if you don't get NK'ed then we can use a combination of your watch and aronis's roleblock to work out if you have been telling the truth about your role. Also, regardless of who is NK'ed they will then be conftown, which gives us more info on whether darklight or yourself is the strongman (or rem, although that seems unlikely). With response to what town-you should do, I agree there is nothing more that you can do but surely you can see how a no-lynch helps the rest of us to sort you one way or another. Perhaps I'm just being paranoid :(
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Post Post #674 (ISO) » Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:43 am

Post by Marky Mark »

awesomeusername wrote:
  • DarkLightA + someone else
  • awesomeusername + someone else

  • DarkLightA
  • awesomeusername
  • Marky Mark
  • Reminiscence


This is the scenario that worries me, because while not the most likely case in my mind, it would spell instant loss for the town. A no-lynch isn't guarenteed to confirm or deny it, but there is a decent chance we will be better informed on its likelihood than we are at present.
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