Mini 1622: (Hilariously) Unbalanced Mafia [-Over-]

[Mathdino]

no i mean the fact that nazarene asked for a fullclaim, which was detrimental, rather than a simple question of whether or not he visited someone last night. also the fact that he chose the easiest lynch target to do so, and in particular my top scumread when i'm the one with a guilty on naz.

easy diversion, essentially, and good way for scum to get a PR claim out of naz's lynch.

[guille2015]

guille, can you jail me tonight? It won't Roleblock me, just protect me.

I've been ordered elsewhere though. If Naz flips scum, my best option is to use my power to clear someone else. You're pretty much clear for everyone. I'm open for suggestion at this point, but currently planning on what we agreed.

[Nazarene]

Hi fellas!

Don't hammer just yet, I'll effort tomorrow. Aegor is still MIA (ill, or something?)
-Tier

[Nazarene]

Ugg, this isn't a town reaction to being at L-1.

Hi sorry busy days

[Nazarene]

no i mean the fact that nazarene asked for a fullclaim, which was detrimental, rather than a simple question of whether or not he visited someone last night. also the fact that he chose the easiest lynch target to do so, and in particular my top scumread when i'm the one with a guilty on naz.

easy diversion, essentially, and good way for scum to get a PR claim out of naz's lynch.

you know I actually don't push prohawk, right?

And I'd choose the person who was most likely to be pushed to claim the following day? hell no, I'd choose something like mollie or ika.
-tier

[Nazarene]

I lied, I'm doing shit today.

I'm starting to get itchy about dino.

Dino, I want to talk with you about your confbiasing. I have provided evidence of that and of fitting evidence to reads below.
Why do you do this?
What is your current read on me based on?
Why do you include ika in your scumreads?

Spoiler: thinks we are town

I dont know the mechanics of it. Its possible theres a gun framer or some shit.

UNVOTE:
Need to read thread, on phone

Spoiler: finds evidence for us being town

We think that Guille is town. I've heard much 'but he can be scum jailkeeper' but no reasons, really.

Dino, can you explain why he isn't, according to you?
Mollie, same question.

And I'm going to change my previous statement:

if

we're massclaiming, we claim second after prohawk.

Scum probably is within [dino;EF;hawk]

with a slight chance of [mollie;dgb].

EF is where I want to be voting unless dino is going to keep up his act.

VOTE: EF

Look, buddy, my role PM says town. You don't feel like scum suiciding (nor do I understamd why they would), but you ARE saying that you have definite information that I'm scum, which I'm just fucking not.

That's my perspective.

Since we're doing massclaim, prohawk goes before us.

And before you say I'm stalling,

I am an investigative role with a non-definitive guilty on prohawk. It might be definitive, however, depending on what he claims.

We're nothing else than an investigative role and that should probably tell you enough for you to reveal what you're doing.

No, but

I do believe I'm insane.

Insane people probably don't get guns.

Ika - Null (chewing the fat and thinking. Cause nothing springs out as to fall on either side of the spectrum imo)
Sonic Boom - Town/Null (purely gut on this one)

Explain in more detail both of these. Also explain how gut compels you to read the heads differently.

@guille:

Do you mind explaining your reads on ika and SonicBoom, given that you clearly have way more conviction than almost anyone else? The SB one is obvious given recent posts, but I would like to know your basis when you entered the game.

@Bulb:

Do you actually believe the claim? What reasons do you have for voting EF given that posts 448 ff. seem to suggest an associative tell between them; or should I take the vote as an accusation that EF is whiteknighting the SB slot? I am a bit confused about your thought process.

I am really not sure whether the cop claim is enough to ignore OMGUS nonsense, whatever this is, and this. Having played with MS, I have experienced slews of random posts, but the most recent ones are just scummy.

VOTE: SonicBoom

My other head is more apprehensive because of the claim, but I am simply not buying it.

-A

This Head is very disappointed with this deadline wagon. This Head hates all deadline wagons.

This Head is even more disappointed that obv-scum SB is not being lynched because he claimed a PR, which is setting a precedent that makes it easy for scum to get through Day 1 intact.

Nevertheless, the Heads want a lynch, but this Head at least will be on before deadline, so the Heads currently have no interest in changing our vote.

Vote voided.

-A

828 is fundamentally correct and at the worst we net a scum in SB, who should have been lynched anyway.

Again, are you aware that this game may have multiple cops?

Possible =/= likely. I would be more than willing to bet my Head and my other Head that if you flip cop, SB will flip scum. The point is that I am 60-40 against believing your claim and 100-0 against believing SB's. The fact that multiple cops may exist is irrelevant if I happen not to believe the claims in the first place. And my other Head is pretty sure you are scum. I would rather have SB's head in the noose. Especially given that we replaced a claimed cop with a claimed cop.

-A

VOTE: Sonic Boom

I do not know why this day has not ended yet.

-A

I could see myself voting EF over sonic boom but I'm definitely not townreading SB and I don't see him living both today and tomorrow.
So I'd rather get it over with.

Plus, aegor seems hell-bent on lynching SB.
-Tier

If you read these, it fits very well with them being an investigative and having issues believing SB and Voided. Very very well. Especially since Sonic pretty much claimed insane cop and Nazarene believe themselves to be insane.

Spoiler: thinks hawk is scum

Why am I scum Dino? Because I won't claim?

Please outline your case.

You want me to make another case after the first one's immense popularity?

1. Before I cased it and people caught on, never have you ever produced any original content this game. I mean hell, DGB produces more substance than you do.
2. You vote me as soon as I stop voting you for bullshit reasons that Sonic later tried to state as objectively true.
3. Your first post of content (a case on my use of 'un-cc'd') was a bullshit argument about semantics to try to lynch the person with most suspicion on you. This argument is continued here which is sensationalistic and literally logically fallacious.
4. Your entire interaction with mollie is weird as hell, I can expand on this if anyone likes but this is one of my lesser points.
5. Your entire D2 play (before you said thanksgiving was giving you issues, which is cool) consisted of voting me, interacting with Sonic, and a couple questions to istott.
6. Your D3 start was so goddamn opportunistic and allowed you to coast on the fact that I said votes should be between me and Naz while once again contributing jackshit when you weren't in any danger of being lynched for it.
7. Your atrocious statement that massclaim is anti town at this stage in the game. Which you back up with a statement that, lo and behold, uses balance to make an argument (the idea that fakeclaims must be airtight).
8. A point simply because I can, but 1443 is absolute balls and is basically putting yourself on the same pedestal as the NK'd guy.
[...]
[...]
999. Nazarene has a guilty on you.
1000. You won't claim.

Your not claiming is the last reason you're scum.

Spoiler: thinks we are scum

Im bewildered as to why Naz didnt just ask Hawk if he targeted anyone or even who he targeted. I was under the impression the specific role would change the interpretation of the results.

Its Fenixs turn btw.

Spoiler: finds evidence of in our ISO of why we are scum

Spoiler: Nazarene's Bulbazak References D2

Hi guys

I think it's probably a good idea to lynch sonicboom today. I'm not reading him as town for his claim (hell, it doesn't even match up with voided's cop role, not even talking about his townread copping :/) and he's playing the 'can't lynch me I claimed cop'-card. Which makes no sense.

Do you have anything to back your claim up, sonic?

To do list:
- read bulba's mathdino argument
- form opinion on ika/mollie/EF

-Tier

The bulba-dino fight looks like TvT to me (fitting smiley! TvT! ) so you guys should cut it out.

why?

2. The below is ProHawk's 605:

For my wall, I am going to start back to where things get interesting... around claim time.

Right after the claim -->

Bulb unvotes Sonic.
Nazarine votes Sonic.
Shos unvotes Sonic and calls Nazarine scum for voting Sonic.
DGB unvotes Sonic.
Eddie votes Sonic.
DGB joins the "Voting Sonic is ScumClaiming" clan.
Dino defends Sonic, the "un-cc'd cop".
DGB backs him up.
Dino votes Fenix for voting Sonic.
Guille talks about needing a counter-claim.

So here is what caught my eye (since I didn't explain myself properly the first time apparently). This is a closed game. We don't know what roles are. Speculation abounds, and likelihood/probability/percentages help with trying to figure stuff out. I get that. But when Dino said something about the cop being un-counter-claimed, that drew red flags up for me.

Because:

A) Why would a cop counter-claim even if he were in the game?
B) We don't know if there are multiple cops in the setup, which would also invalidate that insinuation (that another cop claim would be COUNTER to the original claim)
C) This game is listed as unbalanced/bastard/whatever, which would fly in the face of logic when trying to solve the game with claims and counter-claims. Red-Herring roles?

What this looks like to me, especially on a re-read of the whole situation:

Scum getting run up. The go-to-claim to fish for a potentially devastating role is cop. So he claims cop and runs with it. His buddies are trying to help the fishing along by

calling for a counter claim

. OR

In the event that Sonic actually is a Cop:

Scum are also capitalizing on the "lets find other cops and call for counter-claims"

Let it be known that all of

Dino, DGB, and Guille

want a counter claim to Sonic's claim.

I underlined the misreps for you. He came up with a conspiracy theory in which 3 people are asking for a CC, which is simply not true. This is misrepping. Not ONCE did I say that I was calling for a counterclaim today.

do you think prohawk is scum for it?

Blegh I'm going through your ISO and see PbPa yuck
What is your current read on prohawk and why is sonic boom scummier? (with a little explanation please)

Stop rolefishing DGB.

@Mollie: We have 2 on Ika so far. With you, it's 3. ProHawk, Sonic, and Guille will join, making it 6. I think we could get that last vote easily.

Also your "rolefishing" accusations are frivolous. We are one hour from deadline.

And you want to force a claim. I don't think I'm far off if a claim is your primary concern.

This line of reasoning is dumb. You should want a claim from the biggest wagon when you're close to deadline.

There is no way this playlist is as dumb as we are playing.

?

No, I'm saying that Dino-scum pushed a player for an easy non-reason and that his "case" contained absolutely zero analysis. All it did was look convincing, but upon closer inspection, there was no substance. At no point have I suggested that such a move is incompetent. In fact, it'd be the opposite. You're the one who's saying that Dino is not skilled enough to fake a case.

This Head

is suggesting that it is indicative of incompetence. This Head has not reached this conclusion by asserting that Dino is not skilled enough to make a case. This Head has used Dino's ISO as justification for that assertion. You are confusing the chain of reasoning.

This discussion will not be productive; we should stop.

I do not even know what you guys are talking about. :/

Eddie, give me a reads list while you're here.

Town

Bulba
Me
Our Jailkeeper (name escapes me right now)

Null
ika
DGB

Scum
Sonic

Working on my project for college. Gonna dive back into that cause I've been at it for about 8+ hours now and I need to go back because I keep getting ideas and remembering things. You give me colors my good man XD

ok, so...
Eddie isn't doing shit and hops on the most likely lynch
bulb asks for a readslist
eddie immediately gives a naked readslist.
yeah....

eddie what is wrong with u

Literally half the players are missing from his "reads" list.

What's wrong with Eddie is that he got a scum role PM.

This player gets figured out by day 3

What do you mean? Why don't you want to figure her out now?

Nazarene - He would be in my townreads, but he is voting me currently. Why would he vote an obvtown claimed cop?

lol

This Sonic Boom wagon is rubbish.

why?

I ctrl+F'd 'Bulbazak' in Nazarene's ISO and got the above posts. None of them give any indication that Bulba was investigated. In fact Naz mostly ignored Bulba for D2.
Definitely leaving hard toward Naz.

FFS, FTFMe

Spoiler: (vote)

VOTE: Nazarene

-Tier

[Nazarene]

I don't think you've actually read the post in which I claim. If you had have, you'd know that I probably get the opposite result and that I cannot get random results.

Well, I did, and that's why I was confused. I just checked the wiki. Insane is the opposite, all my [mafia]life I've been thinking its random result. So, I was confused because You said something that contradicted with my definition.

So basically, you can only check if someone travels or not. If this is true, then Prohawk is certainly scum.

You are abusing the claims, again.

If I flip Town (Which I am), would that guarantee that Eddie is scum?

The reason I haven't been all about Eddie is because of the potential of my power being messed with roleblockers or redirectors. What made me think of this was that Eddie claimed him not being block when I had already claimed him as my target. I doubt Scum would place themselves in a vs position this early. And your (Math) observations seem to be good.

I'm obviously in favor of resolving the Nazarene/Prohawk, but my reasoning is not only because I want to keep living, but more so that the Resolution is much more clearer than the Guille/Eddie.

This post is shit.

I think the chance of another investigation-meddling role or investigative results just being complete bullshit is much higher than a roleblocker, which completely doesn't fit with the theme.

Can you explain why you don't believe eddie is scum anymore, especially considering you thought he was scum, targeted him and he claimed a conflicting result on you? Why does that make him less of a target, instead of more?

I can think of a reason..

[Nazarene]

I think strongly prohawk is town.

He's doing a few of my 'scum never do this'-list which has never failed me as of yet.

My guilty is my strongest townread, how fucked up is that.

[Nazarene]

Dino why are you so oblivious to everything grr

[pirate mollie]

VOTE: nazarene

[Mathdino]

I lied, I'm doing shit today.

I'm starting to get itchy about dino.

Dino, I want to talk with you about your confbiasing. I have provided evidence of that and of fitting evidence to reads below.
Why do you do this?
What is your current read on me based on?
Why do you include ika in your scumreads?
-Tier

The biggest fallacy with this post is my behaviour was clearly dictated by the new evidence I was presented. I found evidence for you being town after you claimed PR, but then after you and ProHawk fullclaimed I looked at evidence that you investigated Bulbazak as you'd claimed, and thus, evidence you're scum.
1. Bad line of questioning, no idea how to answer that.
2. The fact that you weaseled an unnecessary claim out of ProHawk.
3. Because he's not hammering like I'd expect him to. I'm only including him if you flip scum.

[mastin2]

VOTE: nazarene

I think that's the hammer. But I have to leave (this mod is, unfortunately, all too human and has quite a number of obligations to attend to today, much to her annoyance), thus, lack the time to verify. Apologies.

I'll be back in a couple of hours with an update.

[mastin2]

It was in fact the hammer.

Nazarene - 5 (guille2015, Mathdino, DrippingGoofBall, eyestott, pirate mollie)

Mathdino - 2 (ProHawk, EddieFenix)
guille2015 - 1 (Nazarene)
DrippingGoofBall - 1 (ika)

With 9 alive, it was 5 to lynch.

(I'll work on the fancy-formatting of the VCs during the night.)
Flip incoming.

[mastin2]

Apathy.
Apathy.
Nazarene.
Apathy.
Nazarene.
Apathy.

Apathy.
Apathy.
Nazarene.
Apathy.
Mathdino.
Apathy.
Apathy.
Apathy.
ProHawk.
Apathy.
Nazarene.
Apathy.

...

Apathy.
Nazarene.
Apathy.
Nazarene.
Apathy.
Apathy.
Apa...

...Wait, how closely have we been tracking the votes?

Nazarene? Huh. Coulda sworn that just a while back, everyone was voting everyone and nobody had any sort of lead.
Oh, well. Guess the town's spoken.

Nazarene

,

mafia

Roleblocker

,

lynched Day Three

.
(Same as before. If you need me to post the PM, I will.)

<<< Night Three begins now. You have until Wednesday, December 17th, at 6:00 PST to get any and all night actions in, and that's in (expired on 2014-12-17 18:00:00). >>>

[mastin2]

Whoops. Meant to announce this earlier, but I forgot.

<<< I set deadline to be exactly 48 hours after the flip: 6 PM, which is in 40 minutes. This was the timeframe I wanted actions due by. However, I set that timeframe knowing I would be gone, thus my choices were either opening early or opening late. I've chosen the latter. I will be opening the game later tonight after I have returned, but any actions submitted after the deadline will not count. >>>

[mastin2]

Apologies for the delay. Stuff came up. And it's late. (Like, 4 AM late when I get up early tomorrow so I shouldn't even be up still yet here I am.)

I must admit, today has been far busier than I was anticipating, as was yesterday. So that leaves me with a choice: open the day up right here and now without all the fancy bells and whistles (I'll probably not even remember to do all the details like updating my sig or the thread's title before going to bed), or gambit on tomorrow being better.

Tomorrow being better is

probably

a safe gambit, but the last time I told myself that, it didn't end well. (It, uh...really didn't go so well for me. I prefer not to talk about it.)

So I've decided to make the sacrifice and forgo the flavor and customization and the details for right now just to get the game started. (I seem to recall making a prediction on D1. What did I say about me crashing and burning as the game went on? )

So with that said...

guille2015

,

town

jailkeeper

,

killed Night Three

.

Day Four.

<<< Deadline is whatever day January 3rd is on, at 4 PM PST. >>>

Also, modly announcement (related to the above long deadline): I will be V/LA from the 23rd until I believe the 30th. It's the dreaded vacation to my grandparents, so dreaded because the ONLY internet available there is...*shudder*
...

Dial up.

(And not newer dial-up. I'm talking mid-90s-like dial-up, so-slow-if-it-were-any-slower-it-wouldn't-work-at-all. And it can only be used at night, since it does tie up the phone.)

Set the modding bar expectation similarly low. I'll be checking in daily connection permitting, but I'm not going to be able to do much special.

[Mathdino]

lol i investigated guille

gj me

[eyestott]

Okay then.
Claims, please.

[Mathdino]

I think we can agree that Fenix is either ascetic or town.

soooo

VOTE: ika

Fenix, result?

[eyestott]

Yeah. Did you find a gun, mathdino?

[Mathdino]

Jailkeepers don't have guns, and I'm undeniably sane by now.

If scum have a gun framer they wouldn't have used it on the guy they were gonna kill anyway.

If guille said what he said he was gonna do, Fenix is cleared. Plus, Naz's flip basically confirms that guille was being roleblocked for the first 2 days, which matches up perfectly.

ProHawk is cleared to the extent to which you believe his claim.

I want to hear his case on mollie.

Fenix and I can probably find scum even if we no lynch repeatedly. This game is practically in the bag.

[eyestott]

Hey, matdino, do you think there could be a death miller or some kind of death reveal framer?

[eyestott]

Actually, everyone, answer that.

[eyestott]

Either that, or we've just done well.

[Piratecat]

Jailkeepers don't have guns, and I'm undeniably sane by now.

If scum have a gun framer they wouldn't have used it on the guy they were gonna kill anyway.

If guille said what he said he was gonna do, Fenix is cleared. Plus, Naz's flip basically confirms that guille was being roleblocked for the first 2 days, which matches up perfectly.

ProHawk is cleared to the extent to which you believe his claim.

I want to hear his case on mollie.

Fenix and I can probably find scum even if we no lynch repeatedly. This game is practically in the bag.

agree that fenix and prohawk are likely town. I think guille likely did what he said he wld do and nazarene claimed a guilty on prohawk soyeah. still liking dgb for town.

eyesore is definitely town. going by poe it HAS to be ika.

dino I will out if you want me to. I think you shld have me in your strong town pile I mean sonic claimed a cop guilty on me and nazarene all of d1 following my votes. when I called her out on it she was like "me, sheep

your

votes" but look at d1 I wld vote and then nazarene wld immediately vote the same person that I was. go look if you don't believe me.

VOTE: ika