micro 429: m9++. epilogue.

[davesaz]

Regarding Willow, I posted scenarios for Willow as scum and for him as joking town. I think the scum one is plausible but not certain.

[TierShift]

okay shit I just made the shift in tone up as an excuse to vote sordos but there actually is one

[mykonian]

oooh, there's a wagon?

vote: Vyse

[TierShift]

wait dave I don't understand you
Who are the 4 people you constantly talk about and why do you group them together?

[TierShift]

myko can you actually post something useful please

[TierShift]

I 100% agree with everything vyse has said on the previous page

VOTE: fuduzn

Vyse, one thing. Why did you vote brantz for not contributing when on page 2/3 while you actually had a mild scumread on sordros?

[TierShift]

Wow. This forum is pretty active. But Dave does have a point. I think Tier lied somewhere when changing his read on me. I'll dig for the quotes later today.

okay this might be scum

[davesaz]

wait dave I don't understand you
Who are the 4 people you constantly talk about and why do you group them together?

When I saw this question I wondered if maybe some of my posts are not going through.
93

[TierShift]

I'll be blunt here, because it's bugging the shit out of me.

I can't see

ANYTHING

that I've done as the

SLIGHTEST

bit scummy. It is textbook town.

WTF is wrong with all of you?

lol are you high

[TierShift]

I saw that post, but it doesn't explain why you chose those 4.

[davesaz]

oooh, there's a wagon?

vote: vyse

Are you trying to look scummy on purpose? I'm sure we can find some rope that fits, if you insist.

[TierShift]

What I'm seeing looks more like weak play than scuminess, and some people were awfully quick to vote for him.

No.

There's weak play, there's weak town play, and there's weak scum play. This is the last. Everybody can look at dave and see a weak player. Then's the question wether he's scum knowing that or he's town. His posting is seriously scum motivated. His votes, his pushing of tier "because he lied" etc.

Don't pull this shit defense.

idgi.
Why is his voting pattern scum motivated?

[TierShift]

fuduzn, could I get some reads from you?

[davesaz]

I saw that post, but it doesn't explain why you chose those 4.

I expect to find one scum in {sordos & his wagon (minus myself)} and one scum in {everyone else}. Right now it's just a working hypothesis.

The reason for the split is simple. The 3 on the wagon {Willow, myko, Tier} could be opportunistic (sor town) or incredibly lucky (sor scum). The other scum being off the wagon is based on a pretty simple idea too, staying the heck away from the fireworks so they can be opportunistic based on the fallout.

Might my split hypothesis be wrong? Of course, we're still relatively early in D1. But it makes a really convenient way to analyze and the number of players being small is really conducive to using that kind of logic to organize the hunt.

[Whomping Willow]

Walls

[TierShift]

I think that assumption/hypothesis is flawed. If I were scum, I'd be okay with being on my buddy's wagon.
Furthermore, an RVS wagon doesn't necessarily contain scum.

I think your own wagon is a much stronger candidate for such a point, except I expect both scum to be in there.

[TierShift]

cyrus stinks
sordros stinks
myko sthinks to a lesser extent
fu stinks to a lesser extent
vyse is town
dave probably town

[TierShift]

willow undecided. What's your current view on dave, willow?

[Cyrus]

Why do I stink, Tier?

[Cyrus]

And if I and Sordros stink more than FuDunz, why are you voting him instead of one of us?

[TierShift]

All you've done has been super easy, just parroting other people's stances.

I might consider voting someone else soon. I'm not aprticularly hasty to do so.

[Cyrus]

Fair enough. I am pretty bad at getting reads early on.

Although I do think my push on Dave is at least a little original.

Why do you think he's probably town?

[BRantz]

@Cyrus: How is myko even possibly a town read right now for you? What parts of your case against dave do you feel are original? All I can see is you repeating that he is bowing to pressure, and that you agree with myko about things he has done that are scummy.

@Tier: Why skip me in your reads? Am I that unmemorable?

I like daves more recent posts now that he seems to have calmed down a little bit. I agree with tier that your hypothesis is flawed though. If, as you acknowledge, the hypothesis is wrong, doesn't that make all the analysis around it useless? Wouldn't it just be better to analyze players based on their play and interactions than create "if this then this" boxes to fit people into?

I really want to see some actual content out of Willow, myko, and FuD.

[Cyrus]

@BRantz: I do believe I was the only one who made the claim that Dave blamed TierShift for his vote. Yes, bowing to pressure is part of that but his comment about TierShift baiting him into voting Sordros stuck with me and I don't think I saw anyone else make that argument.

Myko is mostly a gut townread.

[Cyrus]

A strong gut townread, that is.

What's your read on him, BRantz?