Mini 1630: Edgar Allan Poe uPick GAME OVER!

[copper223]

@Lynx
While normally I hate backseat gaming (and that's also true for Boo) you have set up the rest of D1 so it's now basically pointless to scumhunt, unfortunately TTH is on V/LA and I don't know how to read stahr yet (his posts in isolation seem null/town to me), so it's time to share why you have done so.

[Bookitty]

Why we should lynch Lynx:

He has a power he is certain will be useful to us. He can only use it after he's lynched. I'm sure he's town. If he says that's what should happen for the good of town, then I think we should do it. He does NOT have that power if he's nightkilled. (I wish that wasn't already revealed in the thread, but it has been, so the choices are limited.) Scum would have a real motivation for not wanting to lynch him since they can take him out with the nightkill. I think Lynx is town and I think we should trust his judgment.

If we lynch him, we get the benefit of his power. If we don't, I guess he'll be nightkilled and we lose both him and his power. While that might save Policy Lynch, I'm really hopeful PL will survive anyway due to the nature of his claimed role.

My town reads, with reasons:

Lynx. I don't buy the jester theory. Everything he's done fits the scenario he's described.
Purloined Letter, now Tiershift. I explained this in Post 164.
Faster than Light. I was SO suspicious about the VT sample role PM, but the explanation fit my own experience and I buy it.
Policy Lynch. I have liked pretty much everything said by Orci and Ceph. That's more than enough for a townread on the hydra.
Copper. I've played with Copper a bit of late and I feel I have a pretty good handle on his playstyle, which I <3. I am pretty sure he's town here.
Brantz. The weakest of my townreads, based almost entirely on Post 193. These reads are very close to mine.

[copper223]

Since by the time TTH comes back this is likely going to be a moot point I'll go ahead with it, as Brantz & co asked me about it.

I disagree with Boo's logic in 164, epsecially if Lynx is on the right track that the optimal play for town is to lynch him, starting as a tree stump for Purloined is no biggie, I have no clue about the rest of the setup so I'm definitely not prepared to clear them on this alone.

The fact they did not come out with it immediately is also no reason to call them town in my book, why hide it as town when you know it's coming out, I'd look for a way to solidly claim like Policy did and explain the way I want to play it. Furthermore that statement they made about Lynx being scummy but finding the people jumping onto it scummier really doesn't sit well with me, Lynx was being scummy on purpose, so naturally at RVS stage most players, regardless of alignment, are going to see that and may cast their vote there, either as a bait if they think he is doing it on purpose to catch scum on his wagon or because they think that akward comment makes him more likely to be mafia than average, it was one of the reasons for my early scumread on Tool (TSO's readlist changed that), so them saying it's particularly scum indicative people went on Lynx to me reveals a possible bias in their logic, because they may know that Lynx is town so of course with that information those people are actually objectively scummier.

I did not mention this because I'd expect TTH to jump up the chair for people trying to clear Purloined based on their role, this is also the reason why, although Brantz's readlist looked pretty solid to me in general, I don't have him as town yet, after saying he has Policy as almost sure town he actually put Purloined as his first town in his list.

Another fact that is making me unconfortable is the level of sheeping in those lists, I can see some of it coming from role claims, but almost everyone has me as null for instance, which is a strange read to have considering my amount of posting, and it all started with TSO saying I'm null cause he did not want to read me yet (probably because of inherent OMGUS bias), which is an individual read that should not affect anyone else, so I think it is possible you all have one infiltrator in your town circle and one scum sheeping those readlists, which is making me think about FTL again, because while I can sympatize with the logic about the PM, if you're a decent scumplayer, and as a hydra you have two heads to think about it, you can catch that and use it to your advantage.

[Bookitty]

I would think starting as a tree stump as scum would be horribly debilitating. But, if I were in that position (a scum tree-stump) I would point out that I was a tree-stump the first chance I could and then try to guide town along various primrose paths to protect my buddies and to push lynches against town. Since my vote wouldn't count, I would make my voice heard and influential.

I know Tiershift can be very persuasive and neither he nor Fakespeare (who I don't know anything about) has taken that tack. Since we can't vote him and he can't vote us anyway, I'm very content to put him in the town column for now.

It is not just the role. It's how the role is being played.

[copper223]

I would think starting as a tree stump as scum would be horribly debilitating.

How balanced it is depends on what happens when they can revert back and what other roles we are dealing with, it is also something that may lead town to incorrectly automatically read them as town which would be excellent for the scumteam.

I see the scum motivation for claiming early and persuading people, depending on execution it's a possible good play because town also has an incentive to do it as well, the fact they chose not to doesn't mean they are town.

[Bookitty]

I see the scum motivation for claiming early and persuading people, depending on execution it's a possible good play because town also has an incentive to do it as well, the fact they chose not to doesn't mean they are town.

This could be right. Since we can't do anything about that slot now in any case, though, I'm not going to worry about it right now.

@CaskofAmontillado: What is your read on copper, please?

[TierShift]

I know Tiershift can be very persuasive

Have we played before and am I just forgetting?
If so, sorry.

Gonna make a larger post soon, consider this prodge.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 1.7

Part II.

HIGH on a mountain of enamell'd head—
Such as the drowsy shepherd on his bed
Of giant pasturage lying at his ease,
Raising his heavy eyelid, starts and sees
With many a mutter'd "hope to be forgiven"
What time the moon is quadrated in Heaven—
Of rosy head, that towering far away
Into the sunlit ether, caught the ray
Of sunken suns at eve—at noon of night,
While the moon danc'd with the fair stranger light—
Uprear'd upon such height arose a pile
Of gorgeous columns on th' unburthen'd air,
Flashing from Parian marble that twin smile
Far down upon the wave that sparkled there,
And nursled the young mountain in its lair.
*Of molten stars their pavement, such as fall
Thro' the ebon air, besilvering the pall
Of their own dissolution, while they die—
Adorning then the dwellings of the sky.
A dome, by linked light from Heaven let down,
Sat gently on these columns as a crown—
A window of one circular diamond, there,
Look'd out above into the purple air,

copper223

(2): CaskOfAmontillado,

TierShift

, Kthxbye

Kthxbye

(2): Faster Than Light, BRantz

Catastrophe

(1): Policy Lynch

CaskOfAmontillado

(1): copper223

Not Voting

(6): Krystal Bald, LynxKuroneko, Catastrophe, Ghatokaca, Bookitty, Medea the Alien

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline: January 16, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-01-15 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

TierShift has replaced PurloinedLetter
- [/area]

[Policy Vote]

Dunno how to feel about Cask testing the waters on a lynch on me.

-V

I'm trying to run an experiment with this game.

A theory I've been thinking about and in fact discussing it with people at another site:

Long D1's are actually detrimental to town because of the mass of analysis that is poured into the game D1 with low information and flips creates long and boring back and forths.

Later on, when the information is available through flips, people are likelier to be burnt out, not analyze and read as thoroughly, and "wing it." Personally I've winged decisions more closer to endgame if I've been burnt out from stress (Tales of You) than if I've held back on that energy. Think long distance race with burst of energy at the end which you would only have if you are preserving it.

Extrapolating it to games in general, my theory is that town have better win rates when D1 and potentially D2 have been low volume days. This leads to more active future days. Analysis late-game will always be higher quality than early game analysis because of more information. By limiting the size of D1 and early days, we increase the potential for town winning.

My first thoughts upon seeing this playerlist with the multitude of hydras was that it would be a spam D1. I'm pleasantly surprised that we are halfway to deadline with only ten pages so keep up the good work.

I'll be posting a list of my early reads and substantial contribution by the next few days.

this guy is town

I did not like these posts very much. Despite the fact that COA is my best scumread right now, I would be open to listening to them discuss why I should lynch this instead.

I have nothing to comment on wrt Lynx until he claims, really. I guess I could do a quick no-to-minimal reasons read list

-Ceph

[Policy Vote]

Faster than Light. I was SO suspicious about the VT sample role PM, but the explanation fit my own experience and I buy it.

Couldn't they have manufactured this pretty easily after getting the sample PM?

Also, unrelated, people policy town reading tiershift for role related reasons are silly

[Policy Vote]

-Still Ceph, obviously

[Policy Vote]

copper voters, are you still voting him for a reason? Hell, were you ever voting him for a reason?

-Ceph

[Bookitty]

Have we played before and am I just forgetting?
If so, sorry.

I do not think so, but I have read a game you were in with one of my RL friends. That's what I'm basing my opinion on. I haven't done real meta on you (yet) because I am thinking you are town by play so far.

[Policy Vote]

Town
LynxKuroneko
Bookitty?: I find myself nodding my head whenever Boo posts anything
copper?: town thought processes, I know he can fake those, but also a vague meta-gut-townread

Big goopy middle section
Krystal: I basically don't read your posts, sorry, but it looks like you're kind of trying
Catastrophe: I was scumreading this in places but orc has convinced me I had little basis
Brantz: No clue why posting a readlist everyone agrees with is particularly town
Medea the Alien: down here as essentially a penalty for being cabd
Kthxbye: I forget why

Untown (I honestly don't really remember why I was scumreading anyone right now)
Faster Than Light
CaskOfAmontillado


Off the top of my head, haven't really stood out to me at all (essentially "sirs not appearing in this readslist")
Ghatokaca
TierShift

-Ceph

[Bookitty]

1. Couldn't they have manufactured this pretty easily after getting the sample PM?

2. Also, unrelated, people policy town reading tiershift for role related reasons are silly

1. Maybe, but the reasoning behind asking for a VT role PM made sense to me at the time and converted a "OMG you are scum, aren't you?" to a "Okay, that explains it" for me. I had figured out I was town because "hey, no buddies!" but I also found it confusing at first.

2. Since we can't vote him anyway, I don't really care how people are reading him. I have him as town for now and, if things change, I guess that could change too.

Not lynching Lynx probably saves your life, which I am in favour of. Since I think Lynx is town, though, I'm inclined to want to let him use his role in the way he wants. So I'm a little torn.

[LynxKuroneko]

BooKitty can vote for me.

[BRantz]

My town reads:

Policy Lynch: The claim in his first post, plus most of his posting since (especially 126). Though I am sad that they have basically "checked out" on the game at the moment.
Tiershift: I can't see a treestump being scum, but especially given the way he revealed his role, feel like he has to be town.
LynxKuroneko: I don't know what I can add here that hasn't been said already. I will say that I do think he is probably underestimating his living power, but if his dead power is as strong as he seems to think then there is no reason we shouldn't help him help us.
Bookitty: I have just really liked her posting. She has been promoting discussion on relevant topics, which I find to be very town.

[Catastrophe]

I'm trying to run an experiment with this game.

A theory I've been thinking about and in fact discussing it with people at another site:

Long D1's are actually detrimental to town because of the mass of analysis that is poured into the game D1 with low information and flips creates long and boring back and forths.

Later on, when the information is available through flips, people are likelier to be burnt out, not analyze and read as thoroughly, and "wing it." Personally I've winged decisions more closer to endgame if I've been burnt out from stress (Tales of You) than if I've held back on that energy. Think long distance race with burst of energy at the end which you would only have if you are preserving it.

Extrapolating it to games in general, my theory is that town have better win rates when D1 and potentially D2 have been low volume days. This leads to more active future days. Analysis late-game will always be higher quality than early game analysis because of more information. By limiting the size of D1 and early days, we increase the potential for town winning.

My first thoughts upon seeing this playerlist with the multitude of hydras was that it would be a spam D1. I'm pleasantly surprised that we are halfway to deadline with only ten pages so keep up the good work.

I'll be posting a list of my early reads and substantial contribution by the next few days.

The only part of this post I find particularly interesting is the last line.

I'm trying to run an experiment with this game.

A theory I've been thinking about and in fact discussing it with people at another site:

Long D1's are actually detrimental to town because of the mass of analysis that is poured into the game D1 with low information and flips creates long and boring back and forths.

Later on, when the information is available through flips, people are likelier to be burnt out, not analyze and read as thoroughly, and "wing it." Personally I've winged decisions more closer to endgame if I've been burnt out from stress (Tales of You) than if I've held back on that energy. Think long distance race with burst of energy at the end which you would only have if you are preserving it.

Extrapolating it to games in general, my theory is that town have better win rates when D1 and potentially D2 have been low volume days. This leads to more active future days. Analysis late-game will always be higher quality than early game analysis because of more information. By limiting the size of D1 and early days, we increase the potential for town winning.

My first thoughts upon seeing this playerlist with the multitude of hydras was that it would be a spam D1. I'm pleasantly surprised that we are halfway to deadline with only ten pages so keep up the good work.

I'll be posting a list of my early reads and substantial contribution by the next few days.

this guy is town

I do not understand how you managed to come to this conclusion since the post is exposition about other people posting and a promise to do better soon.

Tiershift: I can't see a treestump being scum, but especially given the way he revealed his role, feel like he has to be town.

Can you go into more detail here? It's not clear enough to me.

-TSO

[Catastrophe]

The only reason I am townreading Faster than Light is their post about whether Morbid is the town. That's it. Their play is really not town.

[CaskOfAmontillado]

Mobile, but I'll have a keyboard later. Note to self: you wanted to talk about ceph, lynx, FTL, boo. Little bit of setup spec, probably vote.
-sthar8

[TierShift]

Okay, just to be clear.

I am not a treestump. I'm just voteless for the time being.

[BRantz]

Okay, just before this clogs up the thread:
We are unvotable/voteless for X number of days. You will not know what number X is, as we have another ability that is influenced by X and that ability should not be claimed. X might or might not be influenceable.

@Cata: The way this was claimed feels very town to me. I feel like scum would tell us exactly the number of days they would be voteless to gain towncred, but without doing so Tier has given us even more information on their role.

@Tier: Okay, thanks for clearing that up!

[Bookitty]

I really don't like that Ghato has basically said he is going to continue being a non contributor until he feels like it.

What I don't like here, specifically, is Ghato's theory discussion in lieu of content contribution. If you're going to make a long post anyway, why not give town something to work with instead of opinion that has little or nothing to do with this specific game?

[CaskOfAmontillado]

I will be giving this game my attention now.

-TTH

[CaskOfAmontillado]

I'm now on page 7 and I think there's an excellent chance of Bookitty being scum.

-TTH