Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Heartless]

That leaves dave (scum), Heartless, eyestott, and dodgy. And I think the scumteam's in there.

so your scumlist is the EXACT SAME as mine minus dave / switching us?

...

[eyestott]

@Eyes
If you're town you are in a prime position to ferret out scum so give it your best.

On the other hand I don't believe you wrote this sequentially as you'd like us to believe, because I've seen you online a few times and you have been active on the forum, so unless for reasons unknown you decided not zo review this thread in particular your post strikes me as manipulative on your part, not a good start.

Why am i in a prime position?
I had skimmed through this thread yesterday, didnt really read much, only foreknowledge I had was that people were voting me.

[eyestott]

case against Eyestott: initial posts which seemed like buddying to me, voted on both bandwagons early in the day (and i think both are likely town at this point, was one of the last voters on the dave bandwagon, Voted dave onyl once he wasnt at L-2 (yet was scum reading him at the time)

thats the basis for my scum read on Eyestott

Ive already established I do that as both alignments.
Ive already established that my KP vote was mainly RVS.
And this last point is not good.My wanting to not put dave at L-1 is perfectly valid, especially since scumdave could just hammer himself and prevent any more information for the day.

wait wait, this thinking is not at all town... you say here you dont want to put dave at L-1(ok this has been discussed, i can understand that) but you go further and state that its worse because

scum dave

could self hammer?

Firstly why on earth would he hammer himself as scum? Secondly why is scum hammering themself there a bad position for the town? a scum lynch d1 is great for the town. like what are you even thinking? how can you honestly believe what you said here as town?

If dave is town: could self hammer for not caring - bad.
If dave is scum: could self hammer very early giving us less information than if we had lynched him a week later. Its good that we lynch a scum, but we could have gotten a lot more information if we lynched him a week later. Besides, if he's scum, he's not likely to start being townread by the majority.
He would hammer himself as scum to end the day before any more information can be gained, such as how he interacts with the other players, accidental slips, etc.

[Heartless]

giving too much thought about their individual alignments or exposing himself by giving a read on the situation.

there's a glaring problem w/ the dave wagon.

it's that for a while
, it was AN UNCONTESTED wagon. people seem to have risen to the occasion as of late and pointed this out, but if you're going to say dave is scum, you have to work from the premise he was getting the EVERLOVING SHIT bussed out of him at the beginning or that he's an SK

that's indicative of newbscum and no one on that wagon (except maybe the hydra of people i've never heard of) fits the profile.

[copper223]

@TTH
Fair enough.

@Eyes
Because as town it's usually easier to see who is incorrectly pushing on you and who is trying to frame you when you're on the receiving end.

[eyestott]

case against Eyestott: initial posts which seemed like buddying to me, voted on both bandwagons early in the day (and i think both are likely town at this point, was one of the last voters on the dave bandwagon, Voted dave onyl once he wasnt at L-2 (yet was scum reading him at the time)

thats the basis for my scum read on Eyestott

Ive already established I do that as both alignments.
Ive already established that my KP vote was mainly RVS.
And this last point is not good.My wanting to not put dave at L-1 is perfectly valid, especially since scumdave could just hammer himself and prevent any more information for the day.

wait wait, this thinking is not at all town... you say here you dont want to put dave at L-1(ok this has been discussed, i can understand that) but you go further and state that its worse because

scum dave

could self hammer?

Firstly why on earth would he hammer himself as scum? Secondly why is scum hammering themself there a bad position for the town? a scum lynch d1 is great for the town. like what are you even thinking? how can you honestly believe what you said here as town?

giving too much thought about their individual alignments or exposing himself by giving a read on the situation.

there's a glaring problem w/ the dave wagon.

it's that for a while
, it was AN UNCONTESTED wagon. people seem to have risen to the occasion as of late and pointed this out, but if you're going to say dave is scum, you have to work from the premise he was getting the EVERLOVING SHIT bussed out of him at the beginning or that he's an SK

that's indicative of newbscum and no one on that wagon (except maybe the hydra of people i've never heard of) fits the profile.

To be fair, my wagon is (almost)uncontested too.

[Heartless]

I have trouble believing this. dodgy vs. eyestott felt pretty genuine to me and basing mastin scum read solely under the assumption that dodgy/eyestott are scum seems like a stretch right now. +Scum points

mmmmmmmmmmm not really

mastin read is based on
>the dave scumread is pretty nonsensical
>it's only supported by "if i said it, it wouldn't make sense". never stopped her from trying before
>mastin knows me and KNOWS that my scumgame is made up of prod dodges but seems to be applying that in the most superficial manner possible here

usually w/ mastin town, i see a sweet spot in the scum reads where i think "yeah, that sounds right" and that is NOTABLY absent in this game.


WHERE'S THE BEEF?

[Heartless]

you know, actually, i'm looking at the vote counts and i think tean is a scum anchor wagon. it's been static from the beginning and it's momentum is just PLOP sitting there.

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 1.6

killapenwin (0) -
BlueBloodedToffee (0) -
eyestott (5) - dodgy56, BlueBloodedToffee, copper223, davesaz, Mastin2
Heartless (0) -
davesaz (3) -Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott
copper223 (1) - Heartless
vettrock (0) -
Aneninen (0) -
dodgy56 (1) - vettrock
Wickedestjr (1) - beastcharizard
beastcharizard (0) -
Tean Samargo (2) - killapenwin, Aneninen
mastin2 (0) -

Not Voting:

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is Monday, January 19th at 2:00 pm PST which is in (expired on 2015-01-19 14:00:00)

[Heartless]

you know, actually, i'm looking at the vote counts and i think tean is a scum anchor wagon. it's been static from the beginning and it's momentum is just PLOP sitting there.

and it's no good to begin with, either

killa/anen, mastin, copper
killa/anen, dodgy, dave
killa, anen, eyestott/dodgy

[dodgy56]

case against Eyestott: initial posts which seemed like buddying to me, voted on both bandwagons early in the day (and i think both are likely town at this point, was one of the last voters on the dave bandwagon, Voted dave onyl once he wasnt at L-2 (yet was scum reading him at the time)

thats the basis for my scum read on Eyestott

Ive already established I do that as both alignments.
Ive already established that my KP vote was mainly RVS.
And this last point is not good.My wanting to not put dave at L-1 is perfectly valid, especially since scumdave could just hammer himself and prevent any more information for the day.

wait wait, this thinking is not at all town... you say here you dont want to put dave at L-1(ok this has been discussed, i can understand that) but you go further and state that its worse because

scum dave

could self hammer?

Firstly why on earth would he hammer himself as scum? Secondly why is scum hammering themself there a bad position for the town? a scum lynch d1 is great for the town. like what are you even thinking? how can you honestly believe what you said here as town?

If dave is town: could self hammer for not caring - bad.
If dave is scum: could self hammer very early giving us less information than if we had lynched him a week later. Its good that we lynch a scum, but we could have gotten a lot more information if we lynched him a week later. Besides, if he's scum, he's not likely to start being townread by the majority.
He would hammer himself as scum to end the day before any more information can be gained, such as how he interacts with the other players, accidental slips, etc.

i can understand the conclusion you draw if he is town. I understand the conclusion you draw if he is scum but he would only do that if there was no chance he was avoiding lynch or any other viable candidate is his buddy.
You could be a potential candidate for someone who could take the lynch lead from him.
But none of that is what i really take issue with.
what i take issue with, is why you chose to state teh

especially if he is scum

. If you are town lynching scum is never a downside. and you should be more worried about him hammering if he is town than if he is scum, yet you choose to mention the "if he is scum" in your quantifying statement.

Does anyone else find that off or is it just me?

[Heartless]

killa/anen, mastin, copper
killa/anen, dodgy, dave
killa, anen, eyestott/dodgy

I think the first one is probably your best effort, Anti. I'll get into a few things.

-TTH

[davesaz]

Clarification: I never said anything about self-hammering. I made a comment about self-voting, and I was talking in

past tense

(

had

been thinking about) referring to a time that the count was just 2-3 votes.

I don't see mastin as likely scum, despite her totally misreading me.

Out of time (meeting starting soon) but I wanted to get this posted to address the recent discussion.

[Heartless]

Heartless (TTH side), what's your read on:

- Dave
- Aneninen
- Eyes vs Dodgy

I'll get to all these, but I

would

like to talk with you about your mastin read.

I think mastin is scummy. The major red flag is that there's a chasm between the apparent confidence in the reads and the way the vote is being treated. From "go" we see that mastin suspects dave in Post 9. Even though she claims that it was a sort of "reaction test" later in Post 155, she still makes it clear she's still adamant that dave is scum. Even a rudimentary explanation deeper than " throwing just about every newbscum tell in the book." is never offered, and there's little more than bluster behind the read. What's really telling to me is how mastin behaves when the wagon starts to falter, though. With the rise of the eyestott counterwagon, she happily trades a dave vote for the counterwagon vote in Post 448. By the way, we're never treated as to why she thinks eyestott is scum either. The vote comes off more as a "Haha, BBT! Take that!" Bailing on the dave wagon like that for a counterwagon on eyestott makes very little sense given the confidence in the davesaz read

and

in the context of mastin's other reads. With the exception of eyestott, she was townreading the dave wagon, but the eyestott wagon contains strong-"scumread" dave and is championed by mild scumread dodgy (Post 442). According to the stated beliefs, the dave wagon would be

far

superior to the eyestott wagon and that's where her vote should remain as she tries to get traction for the wagon by giving any semblance of reasoning (which she's failed to do). This looks like... what did Anti call it? "Riding the hate." And it's not like mastin hasn't been on at all and just hasn't had time to write a case. She may be busy with things in life, but she's had plenty of time to go off on BBT and Anti. I think she has time to post a sentence or two about how dave is so obviously scum and what exact newbscum tells he's dropping.

In short, the jump from the dave wagon to the eyestott wagon makes no sense from the perspective of town with as strong of a scumread as mastin apparently had and it doesn't follow from anything mastin's said or fit in with mastin's other reads.

If anyone has an alternative hypothesis for the reasoning behind the vote change, please let me hear it. Copper, I'm especially talking to you.

-TTH

[davesaz]

Ok I have caught up to, @wicked no you are not insane, I do not know why BBT is trying so hard to defend Tean and buddying up to him.

@Aneninen sorry I am not 100% sure how to link multiple posts I think it has to do with the "Q+ button but I think that only allows you to do posts from a single page, whereas my comments covered Tean's posts over the whole thread. If you have Tean's ISO in 1 tab and my post in another it is not to difficult to cross-reference.

I am kind of feeling this Eyestott wagon and mostly because I don't like his indecisive style of play, it seems too noncommittal. It is almost as if he is justifying an excuse at the point of voting so that he can defend himself when things don't look too good for him if he makes a mistake for example. If you are making a point against someone you should be trying to convince others they are scum typically in a format like this:

Person .... is scum because ......(read/reason).. and ideally ->see this post ..(evidence/post)...

or at least in some format similar to that. When I read Eyestott's posts he just seems to be indifferent. I find a person who does that to be difficult to read, a player is either scum or not you may have conflicting points but at some point you are going to have to decide.

I played my last game against scumEyestott and he did the same that game, which is partly why I think the wagon on him is a better choice than the others proposed so far. I'll hold off voting for him right now as I would like to hear more from a few players mastin/vettrock/heartless first.

Meeting turned out to be a quick one, so I get to post more.

This post looks so town up till the last sentence. If you're confident in the read, why wait for other players? The wagon was only L-3 or so at this point, if I counted right.

[copper223]

@TTH
Nice to know you are most likely town this time, when I first read 486... but if Mastin is scum your scumread on me makes perfect sense. I will look into it, first reaction is you are making a lot of sense.

[Aneninen]

Although Tean is my strongest scumread, that's also a viable idea. (See my 219 about him and also the Dodgy/EyeStott conversation.) If Eyestott flips scum, Tean is most probably town, or at least, if both of them were scum, it would have been very dumb from them to jump on the Davesaz wagon with those posts. Also, if Eyestott is scum, that may clear Dodgy too, maybe.
Everyone, discuss these!

No where do you say what happens if i'm town.
Yeah, so you're determined to read eyestott!scum no matter what happens. Got it.¹
So, pretty much everyone is scumreading me. Dont i like, have the right to an attorney or something? Wicked, as pretty much the only person not thinking i'm super scummy, please help. I promise I'm town.²

(1) Had you read my previous posts you would know the answer for this. In short: My strongest scumread is Tean, whom I'm voting for. If you flip town, I'm pretty sure that he's scum. (Your town-flip wouldn't be an alignment tell on Dodgy, on the other hand.)
(2) That seems to be a kind of whining. If you were townread by most of us, you wouldn't be wagoned. And to tell the truth, you're doing your best so that I may vote for you.

wait wait, this thinking is not at all town... you say here you dont want to put dave at L-1(ok this has been discussed, i can understand that) but you go further and state that its worse because

scum dave

could self hammer?
Firstly why on earth would he hammer himself as scum? Secondly why is scum hammering themself there a bad position for the town? a scum lynch d1 is great for the town. like what are you even thinking? how can you honestly believe what you said here as town?

^
This.
I posted a similar answer for that part of your 463, but Dodgy already summarized my thoughts here. Eyestott's 477 was an answer I didn't like. Eg.

"Besides, if he's scum, he's not likely to start being townread by the majority."

– scums can turn the tide many times, especially on Day1. (Slips included, unfortunately.)
(Sure, there

are

situations when it's beneficial for the scum to self-hammer but this, and in general, Day1s are not amongst those.)


Tean, 471 – nullcontent, it doesn't change my reads. (I've checked your overall activity too but that has been uninformative.)

Eyestott, 480 – your wagon is

not

uncontested. The Davesaz wagon is still there.

you know, actually, i'm looking at the vote counts and i think tean is a scum anchor wagon. it's been static from the beginning and it's momentum is just PLOP sitting there.

What sort of pigeon poop was that?!
I think both Penguin and me provided our reasons for being on that wagon.

[davesaz]

In short, the jump from the dave wagon to the eyestott wagon makes no sense from the perspective of town with as strong of a scumread as mastin apparently had and it doesn't follow from anything mastin's said or fit in with mastin's other reads.

If anyone has an alternative hypothesis for the reasoning behind the vote change, please let me hear it. Copper, I'm especially talking to you.

I'd like to ask a separate question which might also be useful in working out mastin. Does anyone have experience with her having the type of (apparently) emotional reaction to Anti's sudden push on her? I'm predisposed to read that type of reaction as somewhat town unless there is meta indicating it's out of character for a player, and I don't have direct meta to work with. The emotional->town doesn't mesh at all with TTH's analysis of mastin's actions vs. stated reads and the logic speaks louder.

I said just a few posts ago that I didn't see mastin as scum, EBWO(VD)P certainly didn't see her as especially town either.

(VD) = very delayed.

[Heartless]

I'm not inclined to think temperament is influenced by the color of the card you draw. If you're choleric or in a bad mood, holding a red card isn't going to make you suddenly not in a bad mood.

-TTH

[davesaz]

Besides, if he's scum, he's not likely to start being townread by the majority.

This is quite subtle, but it's also clearly misinformation.
Scum are often townread by the majority. If they weren't, then they'd never win!
Not to mention the surrounding material is so full of WIFOM that the supply of glasses is running low.

[davesaz]

I'm not inclined to think temperament is influenced by the color of the card you draw. If you're choleric or in a bad mood, holding a red card isn't going to make you suddenly not in a bad mood.

-TTH

True, but not really what I was asking. Does mastin have a history of outbursts, and if she does is it helpful for alignment?
I know, it's a bit lazy of me to ask this vs. looking it up myself. Just hoping someone will know offhand...

BTW this post can also be used in my defense. Just because I got a little worked up over being scum read off the bat in nearly every game (and over nothing) doesn't imply I got red this time...

[copper223]

VOTE: Mastin

[copper223]

@Dave
you are so scummy...

[davesaz]

Explain please.

[copper223]

You asking TTH if Mastin's outburst is town, when you clearly did the same thing and hinted that it was faked "for strategical reasons" and then self consciously adding that you shouldn't be read as town for it...