Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[copper223]

It's a binomial distribution with p= 0.15 and for there to be at least two full trackers you have to get 3 or more successes out of 7, the probability of that happening is roughly 7%.

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

[copper223]

Are you now claiming 1-shot?

[copper223]

ok so i clearly missed the post where eyestott claimed tracker...

UNVOTE:

for the record he fake claimed a cop as scum in my last game with him. however he knows i know that so i doubt he would pull that here if he were scum,
im inclined to believe his claim

You replied to the post so how did you miss it?

[eyestott]

Ah, I didn't realise that TT was a full and a 1 shot.
I did 1- Pr(0 Ts) - Pr(1 T)
Where I should have also removed Pr(2Ts)

[eyestott]

Still, 7 percent.
That's actually not enough to base a dipole on.
If both are town, that's two mislynched.

[copper223]

You being afraid of a cc is scum indicative.

[copper223]

But in the absence of one:

VOTE: Dodgy

[eyestott]

No, it's not.
If I'm town, and a town tracker CCs me, it creates a fake dipole, and we get two PR lynches.
7% is a significant chance.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

425 - Heartless, I find it pretty unlikely that both dodgy and eyestott are scum.

429 - Wicked, what exactly don't you like about my scum!eye reasoning?

432 - Jesus Christ, this fucking reads-list. Where do I start?

Town-reading me to appease won't work. Nice try though. How am I strong town if you think everything I post I could post as scum?

Reasoning for Town!Killa?

Reasoning for Town!Vettrock?

Reasoning for Town!Anen?

Do you think it's likely that both eye/dodgy are scum? Also, I think Dave could be town and I've not picked anything scummy up from Heartless either sooo.....

434 - FUCK META. FFS, I fucking hate this shit. Too fucking easy for scum, 'He's town because meta' is not a fucking reason. FUCK. Please be scum BC, for the love of fucking God, please be scum.

439 - Mastin, you JUST had dodgy in your scum pile...but he's giving you town-vibes. Have I missed something?

440 - Killa, can you quote some of those posts from eye that you don't like? Because, it's somewhat convenient that you like this wagon at this time.

You also say he's difficult to read...but you're scum-reading him...so he can't be

that

difficult?

446 - Anen, again, this is an opportunistic time to be jumping on the eye wagon. Can you give your reasoning for eye!scum? 'Eyestott may be okay' does not quite qualify you to join the wagon.

The explanation for his attached comment is just so scummy. Why is Anen getting no attention at all?

The 'looking for confirmation' from Mastin for your read on me is weird as well. Not sure what I make of that yet.

I am supremely confident there is

at least

one scum in Killa/Anen.

UNVOTE:

[BlueBloodedToffee]

458 - Mastin, I don't give a fuck what the majority thinks. The only thing I KNOW is that I'm town, and I'll go for who

I

think is scum over anybody, and everybody, else's opinions.

460 - Another scummy post from Anen. Like, he is being careful here to make sure he can't be accounted for anything he says.

VOTE: Anen

463 - You most definitely was trying to change dodgy's view of you and you most definitely was scum-reading him at that time as well. That explanation doesn't cut it.

At this point, I feel one of Copper/Eye is scum (not scum together) and Anen is independently scum.

[killapenwin]

@BlueBloodedToffee

Well, I would say that Killa’s defensiveness means that he’s more concerned about maintaining his image. I don’t like a lot of his posts. I don’t consider him to be hunting scum. His “reads” seem more influenced by salt, seeing as how me and eyestott are easily listed as scum (and what a coincidence! We both voted for him).

Oh, and my favorite part was when he blatantly threatened that "things wouldn't end up well" if I continued voting for him.

@copper

Do you mean that last discussion or their interaction in general?

@penwin

Opinions on mastin? I don’t like how people are practically idolizing her and her actions. I think most of her actions are cryptic as fuck, and I'm not sure why some people are blindly following her

@Dav

@dav
The point of my case against you dav is that you have been floating around the forum posting nearly daily and yet your strongest read is simply a 'mixed' read. While I'm not asking for a super strong 'that man is scum' read, I find it suspicious that you don't even have a weak scum read. It is as if you weren't really looking for scum until that point. That in my opinion is pretty dang scummy.

This is partly accurate and partly completely wrong. Your observation on activity is quite accurate. I have been active, in this thread or elsewhere, pretty much constantly when I have free time. There were a couple of times I would have wanted to post more in-depth (Thursday morning and Saturday morning) but could not because of RL obligations.

The completely wrong part is the interpretation of why my reads are useless, and even more so the analysis of what that means for alignment. If I were scum, I could toss out accusations willy nilly and pick one that sticks. It would even be beneficial for my team to toss weak scum reads in the direction of my teammates, and buddy the heck out of a couple of town to cast suspicion on them. I'm not taking the easy route -- that should tell you something.

By your own admission, you weren't thinking rationally at that time. In that state, I'm not sure that you'd be making the optimal scum plays regardless in that state.

-Faustbyte

Explain that scummy bum chum quote you directed towards BBT. I just ISO'd myself and never said that.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

482 - Yay, I like this.

484 - I like this even more. Heartless is town.

496 - Lol. I like Copper for scum.

Anen/eye/Copper?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

504 - Heartless, what do you think of my reasoning for eye!scum?

505 - Heartless, did you come to a conclusion?

509 - Another 'can't remember' moment from Mastin. A convenient way of avoiding having to explain anything.

515 - Anen, is your reasoning for not voting eyestott because you don't have very good reasoning to get on the wagon?

This reads-list is magical. Like, the ONLY people it looks like you wouldn't lynch from this list is Killa and Dave.

521 - Nah, not good enough. You said, and I quote;

So, are you voting for the same person as Dodgy right now? Hmmm... (However, I don't think you're scum. When I met you first your gameplay was similar.)

Either way, you still haven't addressed why you floated the idea that I was scum. Like, if you didn't think I was scum (which you said you didn't) then why even put the point I quoted in your post?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I could get behind an eyesott lynch. I don't like their logic at all.

Jesus Christ. I fucking hate it when my scum-reads start contemplating voting my other scum-reads.

Okay, so, I'm a tracker.
If youre going to lynch me, do it now.

I legitimately believe all of the points ive made, and would have made those points regardless of alignment.

This needs to be lynched. Just maybe not toDay. Anen or Copper is toDay's lynch.

FML with these early claims, remove your votes from Eyes.

What? Why would you townread me for that?

This looks like distancing.

Yes, the part where BBT says if you are scum so am I? So are you claiming scum with me? I don't really mind a 1v1.

I'm sure you don't. You're both scum, and either of your flips clears the other one, right? /sarcasm.

Good, I don't need a townread to not lynch you D1, just common sense.

If you are scum you already screwed the pooch and you have at most 2 days left to survive, there is no KP reduction this game so I have no interest in lynching someone that is already a dead man walking if he is scum (there is no prize for winning the game faster), I do have a vested interest in not lynching a possibly town PR when there is very little need to.

FoS BBT for that BS.

FoS is pretty late. Why didn't you say that the moment I posted it?

Also, this post is awkward as fuck.

And, I'm finally caught up.

Want to lynch Anen or Copper toDay.

Will compromise on Mastin or eyestott.

[Tean Samargo]

Well, I would say that Killa’s defensiveness means that he’s more concerned about maintaining his image. I don’t like a lot of his posts. I don’t consider him to be hunting scum. His “reads” seem more influenced by salt, seeing as how me and eyestott are easily listed as scum (and what a coincidence! We both voted for him). Oh, and my favorite part was when he blatantly threatened that

"things wouldn't end up well"

if I continued voting for him.

Editing errors. Note he didn't actually say this. I blame phone and notes.
-Fausty

[copper223]

the chance of there being another full tracker in this setup is so small it is not worth considering, if someone can cc him he is scum.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'm not talking about what eyestott posted.

I'm talking about what I posted.

[copper223]

@BBT

Will compromise on Mastin or eyestott.

Let's be clear here, as of now you would be willing to compromise on Eyestott as the lynch?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Yes, I would.

Right now. With him having claimed tracker and everything.

Would still lynch him.

[copper223]

@BBT
Good, this means you are likely town, I am censoring the rest of my observations.

@All

the chance of there being another full tracker in this setup is so small it is not worth considering, if someone can cc him he is scum.

waiting for everyone to post.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I know I'm town.

I also know you're scum.

[dodgy56]

ok so i clearly missed the post where eyestott claimed tracker...

UNVOTE:

for the record he fake claimed a cop as scum in my last game with him. however he knows i know that so i doubt he would pull that here if he were scum,
im inclined to believe his claim

You replied to the post so how did you miss it?

um where did i reply to that post?

i replied to posts around that but i dont recall ever replying to that specific post. do you really think i would have continued my argument with eyestott in the manner i did if i had seen it? Look at what happened between when he claimed and me saying i realised he had claimed, then look at what happened after. i think its fairly obvious i hadnt seen it.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I do too.

But, can you vote him please?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Umm, I forgot I had switched my vote to Anen.

Ahem...Vote Anen please?

[dodgy56]

I do too.

But, can you vote him please?

i know its WIFOM but i dont think he would pull that play with me here after our last game together (which finished maybe 2 weeks ago)

plus if he did then chances are we will catch him soon enough. so whilst i see where you are coming from and i have issues from before and this doesnt clear him of those issues, he isnt the right vote today.
im sure you can understand this.