Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[eyestott]

If a tracker cc's here, 93 times out of 100 we have a guaranteed scum lynch within the first two days and close to a 50% chance of lynching scum on our first day

Well, thats wrong. That assumes that the chance of a fake CC is the same as the chance of an actual tracker CCing.
In a scenario where I am the only tracker, I'm less likely to be CCed than in the scenario where I am one of two trackers.

[copper223]

@Eyes
You are not considering the case where you are the fake.

[eyestott]

@Eyes
You are not considering the case where you are the fake.

Well, duh. Of course I'm not.

[dodgy56]

Oh yeah. Id be unlikely to fakeclaiming an investigative when I'm in a game with someone from Fable.
I fakeclaimed a Flavor cop, to be precise, and I breadcrumbed it and everything.
P.edit: I wasn't responding to the part about us as a team. I was responding to the other part.

@Eyes
While we are waiting, do you still think Dodgy is likely scum?

Yes. I believe he is trying to bail ship on the wagon of a PR. If he actually thought I was scum, he would likely keep some pressure on, question me.

im a little curious about these 2 posts. If you believe the first post, it seems like you believe i was being honest when i said i felt you wouldnt pull that ploy again.

yet you believe that im scum because i bailed on your lynch based on a statement it seems like you feel like im being honest about?

can you explain your thinking across both of these posts?

[eyestott]

Well, the two arent mutually exclusive. Scum suspects can still have good ideas.

[Wickedestjr]

Read everything up to 629. I have a lot to comment on. Pages 18/19.

It's practically a scumtell for beast to produce content, especially in the earlygame. Like I said, I've gotten a fairly good grasp on beast, and I'm decently sure this is his towngame. You don't have to LIKE him for it, but you're not getting a lynch on him for it as long as I live, because he's town even if you don't want that behavior to be.

While I generally like meta as a tool for scum hunting, I DO think there are situations where one needs to be careful using it. This is one of those situations. Isn’t “not producing content” a REALLY easy tell to fake here? If this tell is true, then I think he would be aware of the difference in his effort level. I have trouble seeing beast scum exhibit (what sounds to be) an obvious scum tell, especially when I believe his claim that he is busy in real life.

Can you please link or give me the name of the last beast scum game you have witnessed?

@Wicked
It is too early to say, I think bandwagons are good for late game analysis and I'm willing to support my townreads if I also dislike their targets and reasses after the reactions come in.

If it was too early to say for eyestott, then why wasn’t it “too early to say” for dave? The dave wagon came BEFORE the eyestott bandwagon. I don’t understand anything you said in this post beyond “game analysis and”… I don’t like this response, feels like you are selective when it comes to playing the “can’t be scum, no opposition” card.

@wicked no you are not insane, I do not know why BBT is trying so hard to defend Tean and buddying up to him.

Thank you very much.

Wicked, 429

"That makes sense but doesn’t answer my question. I’m not asking you why you town read BBT, I’m curious why you felt obligated to attach that statement to your question. "

– I'm not townreading BBT, I'm unsure about him. As for that comment, I know that it's going to sound scummy but sometimes I make remarks for myself for later. Even if I use the pronoun "you".

Hmmm… ok, but why did you include that comment there instead of in… say… your reads list?

Okay, I've seen it, Mastin.
Having no read of my own, I believe in your BBT read now.

How strong is this read? Feels a little bit lazy.

Sure, except everyone is clearly town-reading the shit out of you (except Heartless) so, no, not that much of a risk actually because EVERYONE is buying it.

Exaggeration. I, for one, never said I was town reading mastin.

The reason for not putting dave at L-1 is fine, if true, but I’m not convinced that was eyestott’s real reason. eyestott said he decided to not put dave at L-1 ONLY because he had expressed self-voting intent, but eyestott expressed issue with dave in post 195 BEFORE dave expressed self vote intent in post 199. eyestott, if his self vote consideration was the only thing holding you back, why didn’t you vote him prior to its mention?

My one point in 195 was not grounds enough to vote dave.

Where can I find your other points?

[dodgy56]

Well, the two arent mutually exclusive. Scum suspects can still have good ideas.

ok ill put it another way? do you believe that it is implausible that i would make that conclusion as town?
if not then how is it scum indicative? Please explain how its more likely that this action comes from scum than from town.

[eyestott]

Well, the two arent mutually exclusive. Scum suspects can still have good ideas.

ok ill put it another way? do you believe that it is implausible that i would make that conclusion as town?
if not then how is it scum indicative? Please explain how its more likely that this action comes from scum than from town.

Its not implausible at all. Both alignments could say that, so its not really indicative. It wasnt a point for or against you.

[copper223]

@Wicked

If it was too early to say for eyestott, then why wasn’t it “too early to say” for dave? The dave wagon came BEFORE the eyestott bandwagon. I don’t understand anything you said in this post beyond “game analysis and”… I don’t like this response, feels like you are selective when it comes to playing the “can’t be scum, no opposition” card.

Because the Eyestott wagon had just started rolling while Dave's had already built momentum by the time I questioned the lack of resistance, it has nothing to do with the chronological order and everything to do with the time people had to react to it.

What don't you understand? If there are a lot of votes and wagons to analyze late game it is likelier a pattern that shows the votes of some players were planned rather than spontaneous will emerge (2 players never on the same wagon but always townreading each other for instance).

[Wickedestjr]

Pages 20/21.

I have trouble believing this. dodgy vs. eyestott felt pretty genuine to me and basing mastin scum read solely under the assumption that dodgy/eyestott are scum seems like a stretch right now. +Scum points

mmmmmmmmmmm not really

mastin read is based on
>the dave scumread is pretty nonsensical
>it's only supported by "if i said it, it wouldn't make sense". never stopped her from trying before
>mastin knows me and KNOWS that my scumgame is made up of prod dodges but seems to be applying that in the most superficial manner possible here

usually w/ mastin town, i see a sweet spot in the scum reads where i think "yeah, that sounds right" and that is NOTABLY absent in this game.

Adding other reasons for your suspicion doesn’t change the fact that the initial reason that your slot provided is a stretch. (I’m guessing that was Anti and not you, though).

you know, actually, i'm looking at the vote counts and i think tean is a scum anchor wagon. it's been static from the beginning and it's momentum is just PLOP sitting there.

and it's no good to begin with, either

killa/anen, mastin, copper
killa/anen, dodgy, dave
killa, anen, eyestott/dodgy

I don’t understand. What is this?

Clarification: I never said anything about self-hammering. I made a comment about self-voting, and I was talking in

past tense

(

had

been thinking about) referring to a time that the count was just 2-3 votes.

Not sure why you would lie about this, but something feels weird about it. Why would you self-vote at 2-3 votes but not at L-1? I don’t see the difference. Each is the equivalent of giving up.

It doesn't matter if Tean and

Dave

eyestott

voted 'at the same time', it's the reasoning behind those votes.

Your read on me is slipping towards scum because I disagree with you? Pur-lease.

Has he never had a townie disagree with him before?

It's funny that you post this right after your reasons for scum-reading me.

*Fixed. I still think Tean’s attack at eyestott felt weird. I’ll try explaining my thought process again in more detail. Looking at Tean’s vote for dave, there was no mention of him prior to the vote, a four vote bandwagon at the time, and Tean presented a new (yet obvious) point against dave when they joined. It’s weird that they voted him for that reads post but never mentioned him beforehand - it almost felt like they were waiting for some new ammunition to take advantage of, potentially to avoid getting attacked for opportunism. And this suspicion is supported by the fact that they attacked eyestott shortly after - they KNEW that they were late to join the wagon, they called ‘opportunism’ when eyestott cast the L-2 vote for dave. But they ALSO cast the L-2 vote for dave! This is also weird to me because I’d expect Tean, a player voting dave, to appreciate additional votes. Especially considering they wanted dave at L-2 and he was at L-3 when eyestott decided to vote. I don’t think eyestott’s vote justification was bad.

I wasn’t suspecting you for disagreeing with me. As I explained, I just felt that the last part of your Tean defense was a ridiculous stretch.

dodgy

, do you prefer playing as town or scum?

[dodgy56]

Well, the two arent mutually exclusive. Scum suspects can still have good ideas.

ok ill put it another way? do you believe that it is implausible that i would make that conclusion as town?
if not then how is it scum indicative? Please explain how its more likely that this action comes from scum than from town.

Its not implausible at all. Both alignments could say that, so its not really indicative. It wasnt a point for or against you.

yet you still think im scummy and post a scum motivation for it. the still thinking im scummy isnt my issue, its that you add an extra part that is totally unjustified. you even go so far as to call what i did "a good idea"

as i have said i think given your claim and my experience with you, that you are likely telling the truth in your claim. it is wifom and as such it doesnt clear all your other actions/statements. but that doesnt give you a pass

[dodgy56]

Pages 20/21.

dodgy

, do you prefer playing as town or scum?

i enjoy both. i certainly get more satisfaction out of playing as town as i like wrestling with a puzzle. I get more satisfaction from winning as town than scum but i enjoy the actual gameplay as scum more.

[Wickedestjr]

Ok, so I

was

going to devote my next post to two more pages, but then I got to 530. This gem deserves its own post;

Opinions on mastin? I don’t like how people are practically idolizing her and her actions. I think most of her actions are cryptic as fuck, and I'm not sure why some people are blindly following her

Starting to wonder if Tean and I are playing in the same mafia game. This entire quote is baloney.

The statement that “people are practically idolizing her” is a false exaggeration. I can't think of anybody that has come close to idolizing her. Tean, I would love to see examples that justify your statement.

The thought, “I think most of her actions are cryptic as f***” is a very strong opinion that is very surprising considering mastin has actually just started revealing more AND Tean had never mentioned mastin prior to this.

Finally, the “I’m not sure why some people are blindly following her” makes no sense. Tean joined the bandwagon that mastin started (surely they wouldn’t have issue with that following, they took part in it) AND mastin was the one that followed the eyestott scrutiny, not vice versa.

This whole post is absurd and feels like setting up to join a potential bandwagon that could form on mastin. I was going to finish responding to everything else before I voted, but this post just screams "I'm scum!" In combination with everything else I have pointed out regarding them, I will

Unvote. Vote: Tean Samargo

and encourage others to do the same.

[Tean Samargo]

Replying to this is going to be inconvenient. Computer is still down, so a proper post will be in order when I get to my school tomorrow. I'll be replying to you and copper and make some thoughts about current events tommorow, so look forward to that.
I just want to say you're sort of missrepping that post. Not too surprising since I didn't put much time and detail to it. (And no it's not another editing fail).
-Faust

[Wickedestjr]

@ ANYONE NOT VOTING EYESTOTT.

Please answer the question i ask here and explain to me how eyestott is thinking as town because i just dont see it.

-I can understand a player not wanting to put another player at L-1 early in the day.
-dave’s alignment was and still isn’t confirmed either way. Even with just a small amount of doubt, I can understand eyestott not wanting to risk the day ending early.
-I am convinced that, even if eyestott is scum, he would tell the truth about his views on voting strategy.

@All
Eyes is purposely not posting in this game at L-2 and I don't like it.

I’m okay with someone not posting for 26 hours.

Okay, so, I'm a tracker.

Did you breadcrumb this? If not, why not?

I’m calculating the probabilities to hopefully put an end to the math convo;

1^7 = (0.85 + 0.15)^7
= (0.85)^7 + 7(0.85)^6(0.15)^1 + 21(0.85)^5(0.15)^2 + 35(0.85)^4(0.15)^3 + 35(0.85)^3(0.15)^4 + 21(0.85)^2(0.15)^5 + 7(0.85)^1(0.15)^6 + (0.15)^7
= Zero I + One I + Two I + Three I + Four I + Five I + Six I + Seven I

Nada = Zero I = 32%
Tracker = One I = 40%
Tracker, 1-shot tracker = Two I = 21%
Tracker, tracker = Three I = 6.1%
Tracker, tracker, 1-shot tracker = Four I = 1.1%
Tracker, tracker, tracker, 1-shot tracker = Five-Seven I = negligible

So I agree with copper that any other multi shot tracker should claim right now. I’m willing to ignore the 6.1% case. I am not a multi-shot tracker.

@All
What do you think about Killa, that L-1 in the middle of the discussion about him and Aneninen being on Tean as a possible anchor wagon for scum is a problem for me.

The vote itself feels a little opportunistic, but I have no issue with the timing.

[Wickedestjr]

No, but I'm saying that, if I were scum, I'd likely pick tracker. It's easy to fake, given that in this game, it's just a yes/no of whether the person made an action.

:townposting:

But in the absence of one:

VOTE: Dodgy

I don’t like the speed of this vote considering you were just voting eyestott. Are you also in the club that thinks eyestott/dodgy was scum theatering?

429 - Wicked, what exactly don't you like about my scum!eye reasoning?

I see two points in your 393.
1: I see your point, but I don’t think it’s necessarily a scum tell, especially considering eyestott hasn’t exactly shown overwhelming confidence in his reads. I know that when I suspect somebody that also suspects me, I still want to convince them that they’re wrong even though I know they might not care. Doesn’t bother me that eyestott is exhibiting the same response.
2: I feel like this is a misrepresentation.

I'll sum it up again, just in case one of you has the misfortune of being tracker and is not claiming:

There is a 7% probability of there being 2 full trackers in this setup.

If a tracker cc's here, 93 times out of 100 we have a guaranteed scum lynch within the first two days and close to a 50% chance of lynching scum on our first day.

This play is superior to any other possible lynch you could come up with day 1, in comparison the average lynch rate based on reads is close to the probability of randomly lynching scum (some say even worse), which in this setup averages roughly 25% (half as much).

So if you are tracker it's necessary for you to claim here.

ok clearly i was misundestanding your reasoning, i thought you were suggesting that we couldnt have 2 full trackers. you are actually just suggesting that it is unlikely. That i can buy more.

Why are you still voting him then?

[copper223]

@Wicked
If there is no cc I believe Eyes for today, in this case his read on Dodgy and my personal impression they were both scummy in the exchange, Eyes because the theory arguments he made were bad and Dodgy because he was scumreading Eyes for every second sentence, make Dodgy a good lynch for today. I do not believe they are scum together nor did I, I did find them both scummy individually.

[davesaz]

@All
What do you think about Killa, that L-1 in the middle of the discussion about him and Aneninen being on Tean as a possible anchor wagon for scum is a problem for me.

I saw the term anchor wagon a couple of times and forgot to ask what the term means.

[copper223]

A place where scum park their votes while waiting to see on whom they should jump on.

[Heartless]

I am supremely confident there is at least one scum in Killa/Anen.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Heartless]

I still don't like this eyestott bandwagon. Is he at L-2 or L-1? Please don't lynch him. I'll try to encourage a better alternative.

the better alternative is tean?

...really...?

[Heartless]

For the record (talking about anchors) is your vote on me for reasons not related to RVS anymore? It would be funny if your own read implicates you.

i'm the second fiddle here. the vote is tth's. from what i've heard she still hasn't fully caught up w/ everything, but... you know... tick-tock tth 4 days.

[Heartless]

FML with these early claims, remove your votes from Eyes.

this post pings me

how was eyestott's claim premature and what's your quarrel w/ that, ESPECIALLY considering beast's Post 532

[copper223]

He was not at L-1 and nobody stated intent to hammer on him.

[Wickedestjr]

@Wicked

If it was too early to say for eyestott, then why wasn’t it “too early to say” for dave? The dave wagon came BEFORE the eyestott bandwagon. I don’t understand anything you said in this post beyond “game analysis and”… I don’t like this response, feels like you are selective when it comes to playing the “can’t be scum, no opposition” card.

Because the Eyestott wagon had just started rolling while Dave's had already built momentum by the time I questioned the lack of resistance, it has nothing to do with the chronological order and everything to do with the time people had to react to it.

Eyestott had four votes when you said this. He later got up to L-2, with no opposition other than me, and you still didn't say anything about it - you didn't unvote until his claim. I still think that the eyestott bandwagon had more support than the dave bandwagon. Do you disagree?

I just want to say you're sort of missrepping that post. Not too surprising since I didn't put much time and detail to it. (And no it's not another editing fail).
-Faust

I've read your post several times and I don't see how it could be interpreted/treated any differently. I feel like

you're

the one misrepping.

@Wicked
If there is no cc I believe Eyes for today, in this case his read on Dodgy and my personal impression they were both scummy in the exchange, Eyes because the theory arguments he made were bad and Dodgy because he was scumreading Eyes for every second sentence, make Dodgy a good lynch for today. I do not believe they are scum together nor did I, I did find them both scummy individually.

I have trouble believing this. Dodgy was scum reading Eyes

for

the theory arguments that he made. So why is it a problem that Dodgy scum read him for every second sentence of that exchange when the entire exchange centered about those theory arguments?

@Heartless

- did you even read my vote post? how could that possibly be a town post from Tean? Cmon...


Reads;
killapenwin - still town
BBT - neutral, slight scum lean
eyestott - town
Heartless - neutral, very slight town lean - I really like the recent posts, but I'm still bothered by the original eye/dodgy/mastin proposition
davesaz - neutral, slight scum lean - still bothered by his play from earlier, willing to reconsider after the meta argument for him, but I haven't checked that for myself yet
copper - neutral, slight scum lean - mostly based on the things I question him on in this post
vettrock -
Aneninen - null - gut says town, but slight issues prevent me from fully town reading
dodgy - neutral, leaning town (upgraded to 'town' if he can explain the post(s) I just questioned him on)
Wickedestjr - obvious scum, can we lynch this guy? (AHAHAHAHA /originaljoke)
beastcharizard - null - is it too much to ask that you contribute something in a game that relies on conversation and communication of thoughts?
Tean Samargo - scum
mastin2 - neutral, slight scum lean - her early posts felt in line with how I perceive her town meta, but, again, she's probably capable of everything she's done thus far, the slight scum lean is a result of her f-bomby reaction to small-negligible things which feels a little disingenuous, has she done this as town before?

*Any read that doesn't include the words "null", "neutral", or "lean" is a strong read. I still don't have a lot of strong reads. Happy to talk about this later, but I've spent hours catching up and I'm done for tonight.