Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Heartless]

But in the absence of one:

VOTE: Dodgy

i thought you were schooling me about how the eyestott/dodgy thing was SO DAMN GENUINE a while back

[copper223]

That was not me, I told you Aneninen was town.

[Heartless]

@All
What do you think about Killa, that L-1 in the middle of the discussion about him and Aneninen being on Tean as a possible anchor wagon for scum is a problem for me.

I saw the term anchor wagon a couple of times and forgot to ask what the term means.

A place where scum park their votes

while waiting to see on whom they should jump on

.

when i use the term "anchor" i'm talking about a place where scum park their votes BECAUSE THEY'RE COUNTING ON THE WAGON THEY'RE VOTING TO FAIL. it's good for scum because it avoids the immediate scrutiny that comes with being on the lynch wagon, so they intentionally choose a LOSER.

which....... describes tean since the reasoning behind that wagon is somewhere between jack and shit

[Heartless]

That was not me, I told you Aneninen was town.

who was the one telling me all about how eyestott and dodgy weren't scum together when i mentioned i thought it was scum theater?

i could've sworn it was you...

[Heartless]

He was not at L-1 and nobody stated intent to hammer on him.

that's not a hard and fast rule. common sense can allow someone to claim earlier. with a few days to deadline, eyestott's timing doesn't bother me.

[copper223]

Eyestott had four votes when you said this. He later got up to L-2, with no opposition other than me, and you still didn't say anything about it - you didn't unvote until his claim. I still think that the eyestott bandwagon had more support than the dave bandwagon. Do you disagree?

I did not like the active lurking Eyes was doing by being active on the forum and not posting in the thread and that was my main focus, I was however not on the wagon when he claimed as I voted Mastin before because I liked the case TTH made on her (and I have an open post to her about it), so that is incorrect. I agree that by the end the Eyes bandwagon had more support.

I have trouble believing this. Dodgy was scum reading Eyes for the theory arguments that he made. So why is it a problem that Dodgy scum read him for every second sentence of that exchange when the entire exchange centered about those theory arguments?

I already explained at the time, there is a difference between questioning someone because you disagree with what they are saying and are trying to find out why they are saying these things and just calling someone out for being scummy at every possible opportunity (the latter is overselling the scumread and it's something that scum with good arguments sometimes do to clueless townies).

[copper223]

who was the one telling me all about how eyestott and dodgy weren't scum together when i mentioned i thought it was scum theater?

i could've sworn it was you...

I never thought they were scum together, I don't think I made it a special point of telling people about it, I remember BBT and Aneninen asking me if I thought they were a team and I said I had individual scumreads on them.

He was not at L-1 and nobody stated intent to hammer on him.

that's not a hard and fast rule. common sense can allow someone to claim earlier. with a few days to deadline, eyestott's timing doesn't bother me.

It should be, what common sense is that, if you don't have to reaveal you are a PR you shouldn't, I guess if we had 1 day to decide on a lynch I could see your point but it is not the case here, that's more a debate about correct play rather than something alignment indicative though.

[copper223]

I got a town lean from Mastin's rant by the way, I was having similar (arrogant ) thoughts when reading BBT's posts about Aneninen, Eyes and I being scum, kind of like how dare you call me scum for playing like this, it is insulting you would even think it, and I get the same vibes from Mastin to TTH.

[vettrock]

I believe eyestott claim at this point. The chance of another full tracker is small enough that if another one was out there, the tiny chance of outing of two PR would be worth much more likely D1 scum lynch. Since no one has challenged it I'm going to assume it is valid. That puts him pretty firmly in town for now.

I've played with Aneinem before. (his first game on site) I think his posting style is the similar, (but improved readability). He is leaning town for now.

I've played with BBT before as well. He was town last time. I'm leaning town a bit with him as well, but only slightly.

Beastcharizard. Played briefly in a game I replaced into in the late stages. Doesn't have enough content for me to make a judgement.

Understand I haven't produced much as well. My other game on site is pretty much over, so I'll be concentrating on this on fully now.


Mastin seems way to0 confident. A quick look at some of her other games where she was town, it is consistent. Didn't see any scum games. Null not because there isn't content, but I'm not sure what to make of it.

copper-my read of his scum hunting is that it looks town. Asking another full tracker to claim at first seemed a bit scummy, but now that I've seen the math, I agree that it would be the best path.

Dave- I was getting early scum vibes in his defense as the wagon built against him. I think is still a decent lynch posibility. lean scum.

Dodgy- My vote on him was just an RVS, but I seem him as lean scum at this point, so I guess it isn't an RVS anymore. Nothing strong.

Tean - Leaning town

Heartless - Leaning scum.

KillP-Null. Not sure what to make of him yet.

I'm not all that confident in my reads yet. I have a hard time picking out things on D1. This is also my first non-Micro/Non-Newbie game (with the exception of a Large that I replaced into on D6) I wouldn't have thought that the additional players would make that much difference, but it is definitely more difficult to track and remember things with a Mini game. Hopefully, I can flesh these out better with some post and examples as time goes on. Its also a lot more difficult to follow when you have to read pages at a time rather than following as you go.

[Heartless]

VET'S reads list is nothing short of heinous and scummy as shit

[Heartless]

I'm not all that confident in my reads yet. I have a hard time picking out things on D1.

'mkay well let's start w/ the obvious stuff:

I believe eyestott claim at this point. The chance of another full tracker is small enough that if another one was out there, the tiny chance of outing of two PR would be worth much more likely D1 scum lynch. Since no one has challenged it I'm going to assume it is valid. That puts him pretty firmly in town for now.

forget the counterclaim

the chances of there being zero I's (which you wouldn't know w/o a massclaim) is 32%. that's not nothing. in fact, that's almost a third.

if you want to say eyestott is town b/c of wagon dynamics / the case on him/ what have you, or whatever tth was talking about, that's one thing. to say he's town based JUST on a claim that could go 68/32 shows a level of skepticism that's shockingly low.

[davesaz]

I thought it was rather suspicious that eyestott had percentages ready at hand. Also bothers me that all the stats posted so far before Heartless are on how unlikely the 2nd tracker is, while avoiding the issue of how likely it is to be fake and there be no I's.

[Heartless]

/ugh

hate to pooh-pooh a tth scumread b/c that usually doesn't end well, but i don't think mastin's scum here exactly BECAUSE of the rxns to the attacks. it feels like tth hit a nerve for mastin that's reminiscent of what happened in ikaruga re:talah.
tth just..... just trust me on this one (i know you don't want to)

given all the townreads ur working from tth
,i think the vote should go on:
copper/vettrock/killa/anen

^^^^^^^any of those

[Heartless]

another project for you tth: think about the wicked read considering how ass-backwards the reads list is
b/c idgi

[copper223]

I thought it was rather suspicious that eyestott had percentages ready at hand. Also bothers me that all the stats posted so far before Heartless are on how unlikely the 2nd tracker is, while avoiding the issue of how likely it is to be fake and there be no I's.

1. Eyes did not have percentages at hand, in fact he said he went and did the math.
2. Really, and the explaination that the second probability (0 I's) only becomes relevant once we know nobody is going to cc while the first one (3 I's or more) was much more relevant at the time since the debate was about whether a second tracker should claim or not, seems very outlandish to you?

[davesaz]

OK, TBH I didn't go back and re-read. I got the impression that the focus on numbers happened pretty fast, but maybe "ready at hand" is too strong.

I place a higher importance on the probability that it's fake vs. real. Focusing on the probability of a 2nd tracker is akin to talking yourself into not expecting a CC to be possible, which leads to fallacious bias toward confirming the claim. It's a roughly 2/3 true 1/3 false regardless of another tracker claim.

[eyestott]

Catch up soon.

[eyestott]

Where can I find your other points?

They should be a few posts away from 195.

Well, the two arent mutually exclusive. Scum suspects can still have good ideas.

ok ill put it another way? do you believe that it is implausible that i would make that conclusion as town?
if not then how is it scum indicative? Please explain how its more likely that this action comes from scum than from town.

Its not implausible at all. Both alignments could say that, so its not really indicative. It wasnt a point for or against you.

yet you still think im scummy and post a scum motivation for it. the still thinking im scummy isnt my issue, its that you add an extra part that is totally unjustified. you even go so far as to call what i did "a good idea"

as i have said i think given your claim and my experience with you, that you are likely telling the truth in your claim. it is wifom and as such it doesnt clear all your other actions/statements. but that doesnt give you a pass

Okay, please clarify. Im not really in a mindset to post dive, but if you explain the context of your concerns, that would be good.

Did you breadcrumb this? If not, why not?

I laughed at this. Dodgy should be able to explain why, but just in case:
So, I was scum, and i fakecrumbed flavour cop from the start of the game to partway through D2. This was on Playdip. In the AAR, i entered into heavy discussion with other people, some of which said they find breadcrumbing to be a scum tell. Anyways, i decided not to breadcrumb for this game, because of past experiences with breadcrumbing.

Eyestott had four votes when you said this. He later got up to L-2, with no opposition other than me, and you still didn't say anything about it - you didn't unvote until his claim. I still think that the eyestott bandwagon had more support than the dave bandwagon. Do you disagree?

I did not like the active lurking Eyes was doing by being active on the forum and not posting in the thread and that was my main focus, I was however not on the wagon when he claimed as I voted Mastin before because I liked the case TTH made on her (and I have an open post to her about it), so that is incorrect. I agree that by the end the Eyes bandwagon had more support.

I tend to post less when i'm heavily suspected. I know its not healthy, but being the top scumread is actually pretty demotivational for me.

It should be, what common sense is that, if you don't have to reaveal you are a PR you shouldn't, I guess if we had 1 day to decide on a lynch I could see your point but it is not the case here, that's more a debate about correct play rather than something alignment indicative though.

Yeah, no. Everyone except Wicked was scumreading me. If i hadnt claimed, I am sure i would have been lynched.

I thought it was rather suspicious that eyestott had percentages ready at hand. Also bothers me that all the stats posted so far before Heartless are on how unlikely the 2nd tracker is, while avoiding the issue of how likely it is to be fake and there be no I's.

Yeah, I literally learned how to do that exact thing a few months ago.
Its certainly possible there were no Is (I know there are) but whether I'm telling the truth will show through my results.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

VC please Mod

[Aneninen]

Wicked, 630 – (sigh) Yes, I wanted to be lazy about BBT. Need I explain it again? His early-posts were very different from the BBT I saw, therefore I thought he's scum. His later posts were similar to his gameplay I met before, they seemed to have come from a townie. So, I was at a loss.
Meanwhile, Mastin started to defend him. Even if I don't know whether Mastin town is (see my readlist), I decided to believe her about Mastin for now. Why? If Mastin's town, she may be right about BBT. If she's scum, there may be no point for her hard-protecting her scumbuddy, so in this case, BBT must be town.
Later, as you can see, BBT jumped on me – and

that's

the BBT I know well. I remember having a long fight with him in a game where both of us were town. I was spending a lot of time with that game because of that, only to achieve – nothing. So I wanted to make the things short (see my 601). As I suspected, he went along. Because of having some time before going to bed, I re-checked his posts to realize that there were not too many things about me. So I answered his two major questions (619, 622). I wish he stopped and realized that he were/is after the wrong player again, but I don't think it would happen.
Post-edit. Having browsed the game for a short while I realized that BBT was doing the same push against Mastin and Eyestott, for example. Maybe I'm simply over-reacting him now.


________

So, let's examine that Eyestott-wagon.

Dodgy – long fight with him, the starter of the wagon. As I've said before I'll examine him later, there are quite a few things about his recent posts which I don't like.
BBT – those posts linked by him were indeed weird. I'm not sure whether scummy enough for a vote. But, BBT's play and the fact that he still hasn't dropped the Eyestott-case fully, suggests me that he's not likely scum on that wagon.
Copper – Basicly that's a naked vote, referring to my previous "there was scum on the Davesaz-wagon". (As far as I can understand.) He picked Eyestott but he had never posted a lot about him. I don't like this at all. However, he jumped off later, before the claim.
Davesaz – maybe it's only a player-in-a-survival-mode vote but it doesn't change my reads on Davesaz.
Mastin – changing from Davesaz, because of BBT's push (? – unsure). Either she's seriously misreading everything or she's a scum who wants to force as many players to claim as she can.
Penguin – I posted about this topic before.

So, either Eyestott's claim is fake, in this case this analysis is pigeon poop because it doesn't tell us anything about other scums.
If the claim is real, yet again, there must be at least one scum amongst those players.

Mastin, Copper and Dodgy were on both the Davesaz and the Eyestott wagon. I'm going to examine these three players next (as I have time for it), because I don't think BBT, Davesaz or Penguin are scum.

[dodgy56]

Why are you still voting him then?

i havent decided who is scummiest yet? i suppose i could have unvoted but yeah.. I dont know that i necessarily read copper as town but hearing that explanation dragged me back to neutral on him.
im still tossing up about voting anen and Vettrock's post about reads was full of fluff and didnt say much. is town-reading tean which i find a little but interesting- i can understand being neutral but i honestly dont know what tean has done to be a town-read (or if it was something someone else did to make vettrock town read tean)

iim about to do a re-read of tean so ill see how my read of vett town-reading tean changes once i work out where i stand on tean

[copper223]

@Dave

OK, TBH I didn't go back and re-read. I got the impression that the focus on numbers happened pretty fast, but maybe "ready at hand" is too strong.

I place a higher importance on the probability that it's fake vs. real. Focusing on the probability of a 2nd tracker is akin to talking yourself into not expecting a CC to be possible, which leads to fallacious bias toward confirming the claim. It's a roughly 2/3 true 1/3 false regardless of another tracker claim.

If another tracker claimed, since if scum does you have to assume bad play and why would you, it definitely would not be 2/3 1/3, where does this come from?

[dodgy56]

so when i look at tean i see not much that has meaning- i dont believe that his claim about his computer is fake and being used as an excuse to lurk. i think that is honest but in no way indicative of allignment.

vote on Killapenwin, still not a fan.
moves on the dave wagon as the killa wagon dies off- one of teh later votes on dave if i recall correctly- yeah this isnt helping after the killa Bandwagon.
have to say i agree with heartless here

@All
What do you think about Killa, that L-1 in the middle of the discussion about him and Aneninen being on Tean as a possible anchor wagon for scum is a problem for me.

I saw the term anchor wagon a couple of times and forgot to ask what the term means.

A place where scum park their votes

while waiting to see on whom they should jump on

.

when i use the term "anchor" i'm talking about a place where scum park their votes BECAUSE THEY'RE COUNTING ON THE WAGON THEY'RE VOTING TO FAIL. it's good for scum because it avoids the immediate scrutiny that comes with being on the lynch wagon, so they intentionally choose a LOSER.

which....... describes tean since the reasoning behind that wagon is somewhere between jack and shit

pushing BBT- early on for not enough activity- i can understand that, i think i accused him of the same- but its a little bit hypocritical. I think he still FOS BBT but im not 100% sure
@tean: whats your read on BBT atm?



@ wicked i also agree with your points about post 530 here

Ok, so I

was

going to devote my next post to two more pages, but then I got to 530. This gem deserves its own post;

Opinions on mastin? I don’t like how people are practically idolizing her and her actions. I think most of her actions are cryptic as fuck, and I'm not sure why some people are blindly following her

Starting to wonder if Tean and I are playing in the same mafia game. This entire quote is baloney.

The statement that “people are practically idolizing her” is a false exaggeration. I can't think of anybody that has come close to idolizing her. Tean, I would love to see examples that justify your statement.

The thought, “I think most of her actions are cryptic as f***” is a very strong opinion that is very surprising considering mastin has actually just started revealing more AND Tean had never mentioned mastin prior to this.

Finally, the “I’m not sure why some people are blindly following her” makes no sense. Tean joined the bandwagon that mastin started (surely they wouldn’t have issue with that following, they took part in it) AND mastin was the one that followed the eyestott scrutiny, not vice versa.

This whole post is absurd and feels like setting up to join a potential bandwagon that could form on mastin. I was going to finish responding to everything else before I voted, but this post just screams "I'm scum!" In combination with everything else I have pointed out regarding them, I will

Unvote. Vote: Tean Samargo

and encourage others to do the same.

yeah im happy to
UNVOTE: VOTE: Tean

and i wouldnt be surprised if Vettrock is a buddy to tean

[mastin2]

Okay, so, I'm a tracker.

Gonna be blunt: don't buy it. Not for a minute.

That having been said...

unvote,
VOTE: davesaz.

Because while I'm about 80% sure eyestott's lying through his teeth and is actually scum, I have this annoying little policy of not lynching PR claims, however untruthful I think them to be, on D1, particularly given the chance (albeit remote) of the 20%.

[mastin2]

Town-reading me to appease won't work.

Fuck off. I don't do appeasement. You're town because you're fucking town. Not because I fucking want to defend you. (Believe me, with YOUR attitude I'd be all too happy to have reason not to. Problem is, I don't because you

are

town.)

How am I strong town if you think everything I post I could post as scum?

While almost nothing you've posted I don't think is fakeable as scum, as in could theoretically come from a scum-you, that does NOT mean I see it as null, because just because it CAN doesn't mean I think it WOULD. In short, while it's nothing that is impossible to fake, it is still rather town overall, particularly since I don't think it'd make sense to play this way as scum. Also, given earlier posting which

was

stuff I don't see scum faking, town.

Reasoning for Town!Killa? Reasoning for Town!Vettrock? Reasoning for Town!Anen?

Null and void for killa/Vettrock given that I'm reevaluating them. Anen's in the same boat as you, though. I like what Anen is saying.

Do you think it's likely that both eye/dodgy are scum?

I doubt it.

439 - Mastin, you JUST had dodgy in your scum pile...but he's giving you town-vibes. Have I missed something?

Scum pile != scumread. dodgy was in the pile, but not really as a scumread, just as POE compared to the others.