Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

eyestott (5) - dodgy56, BlueBloodedToffee, copper223, davesaz, Mastin2

Hey Dave, Copper was on two wagons too.

You seem to have missed that.

[copper223]

DAVE VOTE COUNT

davesaz (1) - Mastin page 3

davesaz (4) - Mastin Copper Wicked Dodgy page 7

davesaz claims VT page 7

davesaz (5) - Mastin Copper Wicked Dodgy Tean page 8

davesaz (4) - Mastin Wicked Dodgy Tean page 8 start Copper unvotes

davesaz (5) - Mastin Wicked Dodgy Tean Eyestott page 8 middle Eyes votes

davesaz (4) - Mastin Wicked Tean Eyestott page 8 right after Dodgy unvotes

After this the focus started shifting to the Dodgy/Eyestott debate.

[davesaz]

On 2 wagons:
Mastin2
BBT
killapenwin


Not on any of the wagons
Vettrock
Aneninen
beastcharizard

i think tean is scummier than most of these names. your approach isn't "lazy" it's "arbitrary and random"

Have you made a case for that?

I wonder if you read the whole post as well. The first paragraph is about

before today

. Yes, I've been lazy. I'd say there are some in the player list who have been even lazier. Just one more double standard to add to my list of reasons town is fucked up this game.

Pedit: @BBT, I specifically stated that I looked at peak wagon size in the official VC. The ones I quoted from are the only ones I looked at. There are probably other players who have been on more than one of the wagons at some point. However, you also are having problems reading the

whole content

of my post. I'm explicitly assuming that copper and eyestott are town with me, and therefore excluded from the list. If there is a fake claim (remember, I'm one of the few people who

doubted

both claims) then the whole analysis is meaningless.

[davesaz]

Oh, good, people doing actual work.

EBWOP: Last sentence of 852 c/analysis/premise. I haven't gotten started on analysis of the premise yet. This is me being honest again. Any questions?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

eyestott (5) - dodgy56, BlueBloodedToffee, copper223, davesaz, Mastin2

eyestott (5) - dodgy56, BlueBloodedToffee, davesaz, Mastin2, killapenwin

It was at it's peak.

You just chose the other VC. Was there any reason for this?

[davesaz]

First one I noticed that had the peak number.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

The first one is the one with Copper on.

[davesaz]

You're making a wild assumption that I scanned top down. When looking for peak wagon reverse order is most revealing. I can't remember who it was that argued this very point in a previous game.

[davesaz]

Now, suppose we stop looking for nit picky details (conf bias anyone) and instead try to find actual scum.

[Heartless]

Have you made a case for that?

i'm looking over tean right now and...... their stuff isn't really as good as i remember it being. i thought the start was ok but now they're just kind of floating around (i see something about how they think dodgy vs eyes is tvs, but then the votes on..........dave,? that read seems stale and hasn't been revisited recently. what's up with that?) they're not really....going anywhere or getting much done despite the fact they've posted a couple walls recently batting down wicked's attack and talking about eyesvdodge (relatively held back though)

things i say don't matter

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Meh.

You're analysis clearly didn't go very deep.

[Heartless]

You're analysis clearly didn't go very deep.

^^^^^^^^

this

and the

kicker

is that there's no core, fundamental reason for WHY scum would vote 2 wagons, or why they would be no wagoners, or why they would vote one wagon or whatever. we're just presented w/ this framework that has no reason for existing.

it's flinging shit against the wall and seeing what sticks.

[copper223]

DAVE VOTE COUNT

davesaz (1) - Mastin page 3

davesaz (4) - Mastin Copper Wicked Dodgy page 7

davesaz claims VT page 7

davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Copper, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, page 8

davesaz (4) - Mastin2, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, page 9 start Copper unvotes

L-2 davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, eyestott

page 9 middle Eyes votes

davesaz (4) - Mastin2, Wicked, Tean, eyestott page 9 right after Dodgy unvotes

L-2 davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott, Copper

page 12

After this the focus started shifting to the Dodgy/Eyestott debate.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Eyestott VOTE COUNT

eyestott (1) - Dodgy page 5 he then unvotes for Dave, no action until page 13 where he revotes

eyestott (2) - Dodgy, BBT page 16

eyestott (4) - Dodgy, BBT, Copper davesaz page 17

L-2 eyestott (5) - Dodgy, BBT, Copper, davesaz, Mastin

page 18

eyestott (4) - Dodgy, BBT, davesaz, Mastin page 20 Copper votes Mastin

L-2 eyestott (5) - Dodgy, BBT, Copper, davesaz, Killapenwen

page 21 Killa thinks he put eyestott at L-1

Eyestott claims Tracker page 22

Dodgy unvotes on page 23, BBT on page 24 to vote Aneninen and the wagon loses momentum.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Copper VOTE COUNT

Copper (1) - Heartless page 2 no action till page 25

Copper (2) - Heartless, Dodgy page 25

Copper (2) - Heartless, Dodgy page 27 Dodgy unvotes to vote Tean

Copper (2) - Heartless, BBT page 29

Copper (3) - Heartless, BBT, Killapenwen page 31

Copper (4) - Heartless, BBT, Killapenwen Dave

page 34

Copper (3) - BBT, Killapenwen, Dave, page 34 Heartless has voted and unvoted for quick bursts, here he votes Dave.

[copper223]

That was boring as fuck.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Makes you 'look' town though.

[copper223]

DAVE VOTE COUNT

davesaz (1) - Mastin page 3

davesaz (4) - Mastin Copper Wicked Dodgy page 7

davesaz claims VT page 7

davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Copper, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, page 8

davesaz (4) - Mastin2, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, page 9 start Copper unvotes

L-2 davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, eyestott

page 9 middle Eyes votes

davesaz (4) - Mastin2, Wicked, Tean, eyestott page 9 right after Dodgy unvotes

L-2 davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott, Copper

page 12

After this the focus started shifting to the Dodgy/Eyestott debate.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Eyestott VOTE COUNT

eyestott (1) - Dodgy page 5 he then unvotes for Dave, no action until page 13 where he revotes

eyestott (2) - Dodgy, BBT page 16

eyestott (4) - Dodgy, BBT, Copper davesaz page 17

L-2 eyestott (5) - Dodgy, BBT, Copper, davesaz, Mastin

page 18

eyestott (4) - Dodgy, BBT, davesaz, Mastin page 20 Copper votes Mastin

L-2 eyestott (5) - Dodgy, BBT, davesaz, Mastin Killapenwen

page 21 Killa thinks he put eyestott at L-1

Eyestott claims Tracker page 22

Dodgy unvotes on page 23, BBT on page 24 to vote Aneninen and the wagon loses momentum.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Copper VOTE COUNT

Copper (1) - Heartless page 2 no action till page 25

Copper (2) - Heartless, Dodgy page 25

Copper (2) - Heartless, Dodgy page 27 Dodgy unvotes to vote Tean

Copper (2) - Heartless, BBT page 29

Copper (3) - Heartless, BBT, Killapenwen page 31

Copper (4) - Heartless, BBT, Killapenwen Dave

page 34

Copper (3) - BBT, Killapenwen, Dave, page 34 Heartless has voted and unvoted for quick bursts, here he votes Dave.

[Heartless]

unofficial vc

killapenwin (1) - copper223
davesaz (4) -Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, Mastin2, Heartless
copper223 (3) - BlueBloodedToffee, killapenwin, davesaz
dodgy56 (2) - vettrock, eyestott
Wickedestjr (1) - beastcharizard
Tean Samargo (2) - Aneninen, dodgy56

Not Voting: eyestott

[davesaz]

@Heartless Thanks. I could have looked... but do you want to push the read? FWIW, I never had Tean as town and never got the point of anyone town reading them. I've waffled between scum and null -- I get a scum and then Tean posts something that moves it back to null.

Some gut reads: (full disclosure, I didn't bother to look at any old reads I might have posted.)

I can quite easily say that beast is the least likely of the non-voters to be scum. I have seen beast act just like this, and his name appeared on the list solely for voting pattern. Town side of null but very weak. I was kinda surprised he beetlejuiced so quickly which is promising.

BBT's most recent few posts are strongly reminiscent of the way he reacted to soft suspicion in a town game. It's nothing like the way he played as scum in an earlier game. I'm uncomfortable using meta, and not just for his sig. I see definite signs that both his scum and town games are situational, and the meta is likely very easy to get wrong. Aside from the defensive nature of focusing on the list of voters on more than one wagon, it seems town motivated to want to get the suspect list right. Lean town though I still want to confirm with some re-reads.

When I read Mastin, I want to throw meta out the window and say this is scum opportunism to the core. She even said she thrives in semi-open random setups, which looks like so much WIFOM unless you consider that she might say that just to throw off suspicion. Constantly mentioning the streak is another thing which is WIFOMy but potentially telling. Reactions like the "you really don't want to call me a liar" thing make for great townlike theater but if someone acts that way all the time it says nothing about alignment. In which case emphasis on

theater

. Lean scum. I'd go stronger with this, but I feel this is a player that you need your ducks lined up in order to attack, especially D1. I've had a bad experience with that but can't give details for the obvious reason. And hell yes, this approach (wanting ducks lined up) is survivalist. It's also consistent with how I play so bite me if you don't like it.

That's 3 of the 6 I pointed out, plus a bonus response on Tean. IOU quotes and analysis.
Stopping for now, to limit the wall size and because I'm being pressured by the family to go out and do stuff today.

Pedit @Heartless. Haven't heard the 'pop' yet, and time is running out. Mislynches are bad for town.

[Heartless]

When have I ever successfully manipulated my meta? Also, this type of game is solely my town style of game as it makes me a huge target for a lynch or Vig kill.

wicked's not getting lynched today

quit vote parking on a nonviable wagon plz

[davesaz]

Copper, I appreciate the information but we need analysis.

[copper223]

Case 1: all three major wagons today were town (this is by far the least likely case but the easiest to VCA, I'm starting here mainly for future flip reference)

davesaz

-

Mastin2

, Wickedestjr, Dodgy, Tean,

eyestott

davesaz

-

Mastin2

, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo,

eyestott

,

Copper

eyestott

-

Dodgy

, BBT,

Copper

,

davesaz

,

Mastin2

eyestott

-

Dodgy

, BBT,

davesaz

,

Mastin2

,

Killapenwen

Copper

- Heartless, BBT,

Killapenwen

,

davesaz

Dodgy was on the Copper wagon and stated he would lynch me, Mastin stated she would also lynch me if there was no alternative.

In this, very unlikely scenario, Dodgy and Mastin2 have a very high chance of being scum, Killa is also more likely scum than not.

[copper223]

Case 2: davesaz is scum

- In this case it is likely Mastin and Eyestott are town

Case 3: eyestott is scum

- In this case it is likely Dave, Dodgy and Mastin are town.

The VCA really doesn't support both Eyes and Dave being town, so if you lynch me I'm going to shoot dave.

[Heartless]

ok copper your turn

fill in the blank:
"the reason i'm not voting dave right now is ________"

[copper223]

I just finished my analysis and grabbed the iPad while moving to make myself a coffee

VOTE: dave

L-2

[Heartless]

psh, aplle fanboy

figures