Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Wickedestjr]

Between davesaz and Tean Samargo, I think dave is significantly scummier - he’s active when under pressure and coasting when not. Consider also his weak scum hunting, various strange posts and seemingly attempted town tells throughout the thread and you’ve got a player that in no way resembles town. His lynch is also superior to Tean’s in that he is already known not to be a town power role. We could get him today and Tean wouldn’t have to claim before the night. Tean is still suspicious, but I think dave is the best choice now.

Quote it and explain why it's scummy. Not a single player has been able to do that the entire game.

I mean, c'mon people, not everyone can be mensa strength, but at least some of you must have a little intelligence.

I've explained why I think you're scummy in the post that you've quoted here...

-You're active when under pressure and coasting when not.

- I shouldn't have to give you evidence of that, because it’s obvious. And it's scummy because it means your activity is dictated by the attention you are receiving rather than by a desire to catch scum.

-Weak scumhunting

- I’ve already given examples of this. Heartless was nice enough to quote again, but I will not be. This is scummy because it indicates a lack of motivation (or no motivation at all).

-Various strange posts

- I’ve also already given examples of these. When I use the word ‘strange’ that means ‘scummy’, ftr.

-Seemingly attempted town tells

- When things come across as an effort to appear town rather than a genuine town reaction, that is very scummy. I’ve also given examples of this too.

TL;DR - I’m not quoting myself. My RL work load is piling up right now and I don’t feel like it is worth my time to repeat things I’ve already said to a player that I suspect and believe will ignore/deny what I say anyway.

[Heartless]

Missed another honesty quote. "I'm being pressured by the family to go out and do stuff today"
I have a life. I don't fade when I'm not the topic of discussion, I fade when I'm busier than a one-armed paper hanger.
You didn't see me whacking your hydra when you were V/LA.

i'm looking at your iso right now, i see NO DECLARATION OF V/LA.

this post that you're quoting also happened AFTER i said you faded into the background, so how's that for "honesty"?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I waited to see if there was going to be a shift after I softed to Mastin and she tried to move it off of me, but since there wasn't and I agree that deadline lynches are bad for town this became the next best play, I would not have claimed any other power role but if we are going to use mine we might as well get the most out of it.

I also am still unsure if Mastin is town for it or she was happy killing me off during the night so I wanted to share this, personally I am leaning town.

I can't find this soft you claim to have wafted in Mastin's direction.
In the meantime, vengeful is just about the best scum fake claim there is.
VOTE: copper223

I'll be honest, my approach has been somewhat lazy. I got seriously pissed off by the early wagon, and really demoralized by a bunch of scummy stuff being ignored by the same people who were sheeping Mastin on the so-called "newbscum tells" that have not really been explained. Mea culpa.

Unfortunately, this game is really lacking in strong analysis. Too much taking the easy route by too many people. Not saying it's all bad, but the noise ratio is much higher than optimum.

Peak wagons, at the point of vote counts.
I did not look if the wagons got more/different votes between VC. The point of this is to get an idea of where to look, since re-reading the whole thread and analyzing 10 players would take quite a lot of time. Looking at the copper wagon after the VC was easy and obvious, so I did track it down to the actual max point.

davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott, copper223

eyestott (5) - dodgy56, BlueBloodedToffee, davesaz, Mastin2, killapenwin

copper223 (4) - BlueBloodedToffee, killapenwin, Heartless, davesaz

Umm, copper only had 3 (or less) votes at time of claim. After I get castigated for claiming VT at L-2?

Really??

On 2 wagons:
Mastin2
BBT
killapenwin


Not on any of the wagons
Vettrock
Aneninen
beastcharizard

Suppose all of these wagons are exclusively town driven. While I can't say why scum would not have been on any of the wagons, a scum team of Vettrock, Aneninen, and beastcharizard is pretty damn appealing. Vettrock has been very noncommital the whole D1 but waves it off as being a bad D1 player. beastcharizard is active lurking and I remember seeing comments that producing content is his scum meta. But meta can be manipulated. And Aneninen has had all those catchup walls.

Let's say that one scum is in the group not on any wagons, and one is in the group who have been on two wagons. Even that narrows down a re-read to just 6 players.

Can I get a little help here? We need to pick someone if we're going to squeeze in a lynch before deadline.

Heartless, who would you be willing to lynch if not Dave?

[Heartless]

we're at the point of diminishing returns and apparently dave's strategy is to just keeping digging that hole until he escapes to china.

it's obvious he have no interest in elaborating on the actual analysis itself and will just throw out stuff about towntells and superficial shit about how i'm picking on him when he's given nothing to even pick on.

you can have the last word here. can't wait to see that scum flip.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Those quotes are because I'm in the middle of re-reading so just ignore them.

[Heartless]

Heartless, who would you be willing to lynch if not Dave?

no compromise

not even in the face of armageddon

i've got my hands around scum's throat, i'm not letting go

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I waited to see if there was going to be a shift after I softed to Mastin and she tried to move it off of me, but since there wasn't and I agree that deadline lynches are bad for town this became the next best play, I would not have claimed any other power role but if we are going to use mine we might as well get the most out of it.

I also am still unsure if Mastin is town for it or she was happy killing me off during the night so I wanted to share this, personally I am leaning town.

I can't find this soft you claim to have wafted in Mastin's direction.
In the meantime, vengeful is just about the best scum fake claim there is.
VOTE: copper223

I'll be honest, my approach has been somewhat lazy. I got seriously pissed off by the early wagon, and really demoralized by a bunch of scummy stuff being ignored by the same people who were sheeping Mastin on the so-called "newbscum tells" that have not really been explained. Mea culpa.

Unfortunately, this game is really lacking in strong analysis. Too much taking the easy route by too many people. Not saying it's all bad, but the noise ratio is much higher than optimum.

Peak wagons, at the point of vote counts.
I did not look if the wagons got more/different votes between VC. The point of this is to get an idea of where to look, since re-reading the whole thread and analyzing 10 players would take quite a lot of time. Looking at the copper wagon after the VC was easy and obvious, so I did track it down to the actual max point.

davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott, copper223

eyestott (5) - dodgy56, BlueBloodedToffee, davesaz, Mastin2, killapenwin

copper223 (4) - BlueBloodedToffee, killapenwin, Heartless, davesaz

Umm, copper only had 3 (or less) votes at time of claim. After I get castigated for claiming VT at L-2?

Really??

On 2 wagons:
Mastin2
BBT
killapenwin


Not on any of the wagons
Vettrock
Aneninen
beastcharizard

Suppose all of these wagons are exclusively town driven. While I can't say why scum would not have been on any of the wagons, a scum team of Vettrock, Aneninen, and beastcharizard is pretty damn appealing. Vettrock has been very noncommital the whole D1 but waves it off as being a bad D1 player. beastcharizard is active lurking and I remember seeing comments that producing content is his scum meta. But meta can be manipulated. And Aneninen has had all those catchup walls.

Let's say that one scum is in the group not on any wagons, and one is in the group who have been on two wagons. Even that narrows down a re-read to just 6 players.

Can I get a little help here? We need to pick someone if we're going to squeeze in a lynch before deadline.

VOTE: Heartless

Re-starting a mislynch on the towniest player in the game.

Intent to self-hammer

at deadline

if scum go for the no-lynch.

@Mod: Advance warning, I do not consider this against town wincon. Town needs the flip more than it needs me alive

I can always go for the hero shot or egg in the face if you get me lynched, or it won't be on me if we end up on Dave and it's a mislynch, the important part for me is I won't support lynching someone when I don't believe he is scum just because it's the easy way out.

I don't think you have.

Can you at least consider other options?

[davesaz]

Missed another honesty quote. "I'm being pressured by the family to go out and do stuff today"
I have a life. I don't fade when I'm not the topic of discussion, I fade when I'm busier than a one-armed paper hanger.
You didn't see me whacking your hydra when you were V/LA.

i'm looking at your iso right now, i see NO DECLARATION OF V/LA.

this post that you're quoting also happened AFTER i said you faded into the background, so how's that for "honesty"?

Never implied I did. Why would I V/LA when I'm not actually gone? I said I was busy, not gone. I can't post my calendar to show the conference calls, trips to the orthodontist, and scout meetings.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Apologies again for the quotes.

I'm a fucking idiot sometimes.

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 1.10

killapenwin (0) -
BlueBloodedToffee (0) -
eyestott (0) -
Heartless (1) - davesaz
davesaz (5) - Tean Samargo, Mastin2, Heartless, beastcharizard, Wickedestjr
copper223 (3) - BlueBloodedToffee, eyestott
vettrock (0) -
Aneninen (0) -
dodgy56 (0) -
Wickedestjr (0) -
beastcharizard (0) -
Tean Samargo (3) - Aneninen, dodgy56, copper223
mastin2 (0) -

Not Voting: vettrock, killapenwin

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is Monday, January 19th at 2:00 pm PST which is in (expired on 2015-01-19 14:00:00)

[copper223]

davesaz - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Dodgy, Tean, eyestott

davesaz - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott, Copper

davesaz - Tean Samargo, Mastin2, Heartless, beastcharizard, Wickedestjr

=> 8 individual players willing to sit on a L-2 davesaz lynch, is scum bussing or inactive? This looks like a town mislynch to me.

[killapenwin]

My list as promised:
1) killapenwin myself, not going to vote on.
2) BlueBloodedToffee: his willingness to protect/buddy Tean based on meta, has clouded my judgement on his reads especially given his tagline on meta. I do however think his level of engagement in the thread is good and that he actively scumhunting, overall lean town, so he is not going to be voted on by me today.
3) eyestott: I doubt his tracker claim and find his 'weak' middle of the road reads annoying and think it is just camouflage to look town without ruffling too many feathers. His alignment could also be useful in uncovering scum given the level of interaction he has had with other players. I would vote him but I doubt he would be lynched today.
4) Heartless: I have seen good things from them, they are quizzing players developing read and scumhunting, I don't agree with all that they say but I do with most, my read on them is town so no vote.
5) davesaz: Mastin's early attack on him has had him on the defensive since the start of the game, she even admitted to it being a RVS vote and read test. As a result he has been battling half the players from the off without ever really being able move past this early tainted image. I haven't seen a compelling case made against him for why he is scum so for this reason he is probably not getting my vote today unless everyone voting him gives a credible reason for doing so.
6) copper223: In honesty he has been able to hold his own pretty well, he has given reasons for his actions and is giving his reads but there are parts of his arguments that just don't sit right with me. There is a question mark hanging over his slot for me, it would be a tough choice to make but if it came down to either a no lynch or hammer at deadline, I'd hammer. I won't be pushing for it though as I think there are better targets and if he really is vengeful, I doubt he will be around long.
7)vettrock has just been utterly useless and provided next to nothing in terms of reads, will back eyestott without reason but not shed light on any other player? All I have seen is excuses and no real attempt to engage actively with topics going on in the thread or to even generate his own reads. He claims he is a late game player but given the quality of his play so far I'm not so sure I would want to afford him the opportunity. I'd vote/hammer today.
8) Aneninen I think he last said he was having irl issues and wanted a replacement? But anyway my read on him is leaning town so I won't be voting him today.
9) dodgy56: something felt off with his interaction with eyestott, (I think it was him) I haven't examined him in great detail but if I see that there are quite a few votes going his way then I would look back at his interactions, nothing is jumping out at me about him at the moment so I'm not ruling a vote out.
10) Wickedestjr has being looking like town to me and his post analysis is pretty good so he won't be getting my vote.
11) beastcharizard is on the same level as vettrock for me, doing absolutely nothing of value for town and I find his lack of contribution is stifling town. Either get active or get out, I'd vote/hammer him today.
12) Tean Samargo: I haven't really changed my mind much on him, he seems to have just kept himself under the radar without drawing too much attention to himself, I get the impression he has just been fishing for some easy wagons. His later posts have been a bit better and I did agree with his Mastin post (that people just took her word on the dave wagon with no evidence) I don't think he has been too useful to town so far and would be comfortable to vote/hammer today.
13) mastin2: Hard to say really, I think she is town but I have a hard time believing in her reads mostly because they seem to be based on intuition rather than actual reasoning e.g. her using meta to determine alignment for a few players. If she backed up her reads with posts then I would be happier about her being town but a lot of it seems to be 'just trust me', which in a game of this nature is not something I do freely. I could vote but would need something substantial to go on.

To summarise:
I would vote/hammer today: Eyestott, copper, vettrock, beastcharizard, Tean
Others I would vote if a strong enough case was made: Dave, dodgy, Mastin.
Players I am not voting today: Myself, BBT, Heartless, Aneninen, wicked.

[copper223]

The players left out are Aneninen, BBT, Killa and Vettrock, only Vettrock is potential scum for me.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

878 - Heartless, do you really see scum starting a vanity wagon at this stage of the game with himself as the leading wagon?

906 - Rereading this makes me think you could be town.

I have been thinking that I really want to lynch inside of you and eyestott. You've both been scummy enough to warrant a lynch and I feel that either flip provides a ton more information than a Dave flip does (plus I think he is town anyway). The problem is, it's obviously dangerous should you both be telling the truth (I don't know how you are all working out %'s etc, set-up spec is not a strong point of mine and I haven't looked at this set-up in detail because it looks quite high in variance). I think I'm a lot more comfortable lynching eye than you now though.

925 - Reasoning for wanting to vote Dave, Vettrock?

927 - I agree with Copper that eye's conclusion in this post is ridiculous. You also state you're 'consolidating', this feels like you're overly justifying your vote and I don't like it.

930 - VC: What do we think about this? Are wagons stalling because scum are spread out?

davesaz (3) - Tean Samargo, Mastin2, Heartless,
copper223 (3) - BlueBloodedToffee, killapenwin,

eyestott

Tean Samargo (3) -

Aneninen

, dodgy56, wicked
Wickedestjr (1) -

beastcharizard

eyestott

(1) - copper223
Heartless (1) - davesaz

Not voting (1) -

vettrock

These would be my top 4 choices.

945 - You beetlejuice a lot. Notably, Dave has been accused of doing this and people call him scum for it. You, however, have received very little attention for it.

[Heartless]

vettrock would be more of a PL than anything else at this point

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Not really.

BC would be a PL. Not Vettrock.

[copper223]

davesaz - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Dodgy,

Tean Samargo, eyestott

davesaz - Mastin2, Wickedestjr,

Tean Samargo, eyestott

, Copper

davesaz -

Tean Samargo

, Mastin2, Heartless, beastcharizard, Wickedestjr

This is what jumps up to me, I have seen Mastin and Wicked trying to drive the Dave lynch home for a while now, and Heartless is fast becoming the third champion, but where is the push from Tean when he has always been willing to lynch the guy?

Paraphrasing TTH, Tean's real estate is not that dedicated to Dave to justify the kind of omnipresent scumread on him that the votes imply, so his position in particular looks pretty opportunistic to me, when you add there is some sort of concert going on with Eyestott this becomes easily my second choice if you don't want to lynch Eyestott.

I don't know why Vettrock said Eyestott is for sure town to him so he is my best bet for the last one, it would still be a lynch with a lot of downside if we get it wrong because the information this flip would provide if he is town is minimal.

[davesaz]

20 minutes reading Tean Samargo and following threads from that, not quite done with it.
20 minutes doing some dishes
Since I'm not done with that read, I'll start a side project.

Heartless, let's play a game of logic questions. I'll ask and you can answer. If you want to ask as well I have no objection.
Anticipating the next post being "nice misdirection", it's not. This is going to help my read of you. It may help your read of me. Bonus points if we catch scum today. That happens to be what I really care about, it's a matter of getting people (you in particular) to admit it.

1. Is a mislynch ever the best move for town?

[Heartless]

davesaz - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Dodgy, Tean, eyestott

davesaz - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott, Copper

davesaz - Tean Samargo, Mastin2, Heartless, beastcharizard, Wickedestjr

=> 8 individual players willing to sit on a L-2 davesaz lynch, is scum bussing or inactive? This looks like a town mislynch to me.

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?

8 PLAYERS IS JUST 1 ABOVE THE 7 NEEDED FOR A MAJORITY LYNCH ANYWAY.
USING THIS LOGIC, ANYONE AND EVERYONE REACHING LYNCH WOULD BE TOWN UNLESS THERE'S BUSSING SCUM OR INACTIVES

THAT'S HOW THINGS ARE ANYWAY WHAT DOES THIS PROVE?

FOR BEING AN "L-2" WAGON, I SURE AM HITTING A GODDAMN BRICK WALL RIGHT NOW

[Heartless]

i'm right back in raging shithead mode.
i told myself
i told tth

i wouldn't do this.

but PEOPLE ARE DRIVING ME SO CRAZY WHAT IS WRONG WITH ME

[BlueBloodedToffee]

1010 - I like this. Can we divert the wagon away from Dave please? The fact Copper is willing to reevaluate that read at this point points towards him being town quite strongly.

1011 - Whilst I like this post, the amount of people you would be willing to lynch is a little concerning.

1012 - Can see Anen and Vettrock being scum.

PEdit - Anti, you need to reevaluate that read.

[Heartless]

i'm sorry everybody. you shouldn't have to put up with me and my crazy. it's not ya'll's fault, it's mine.

[Heartless]

i have to give the stomach ulcers a rest for a sec. i know we don't have much time i'll be back soon.

[copper223]

@Heartless
There is a huge difference between managing to push one wagon to 7 once, which generally happens by compromise at the deadline (usually with the help of scum) where some votes on beauty wagons shift around to make it happe , and getting a player 3 times in a day with mixed wagons to 5.

[davesaz]

@Heartless (anti) Please take the olive branch and work with me here.