Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Dave, who are your top 3 scum-reads and why?

[davesaz]

Here's that Tean thing I was looking up.

Spoiler: wall prevention

93 - penwin scum analysis

97 - vettrock not scum hunting

163 - BBT coasting

182, 189 - my reads list is filler (incorrect but at least it's something)

231 saying i'm active on site but not working here. eyestott opportunistic. penwin salty. dodgy inquisitive, wicked informative (I would use insightful)

530. penwin not hunting. things wouldn't end up well -> vengeful crumb?
asks penwin about people idolizing mastin
says that my 312 means that i wouldn't play optimally as either scum or town

589 clarifies that penwin didn't post "things wouldnt end up well", editing errors. I confirmed that nobody said those exact words. Penwin did say that Tean wasn't looking good.

705 explains the "idolizing mastin" thing, calls eyestott a white knight to mastin and a cheerleader for the wagon
says their vote on me is for reasons other than the cheerleading
Dodgy's vote was too eager to be towny

706 eye and dodgy are not likely to both be scum. if one is scum the other is likely town

708 bbt is town but not completely so

898 my focus is in the wrong place

922 acknowledges that i have pointed out discrepancies in how i'm treated vs others, but questions some of the links

967 again with calling some of the links filler

I think this is probably town. 231, 705, and 706 are quite accurate. 898 is an opinion that town should have. It may even be a little true, though I of course will continue to defend my defensiveness. 922 I see town conceding points a lot more often than scum, and keeping the doubts there and again in 967 isn't something that scum often do -- scum would either capitulate or press harder, the middle road response is much more townie.

I probably should have paid attention to the vote progression, but did not take notes on that.

[dodgy56]

pretty sure eyes is town at this point... in any case lynching a PR claim is a bad idea... plus we can work out if his claim is true or not pretty easily if we give ourselves time. of the other 2 main lynches, i think tean is scummier but dave provides more info.

[copper223]

@Dodgy
Why are you pretty sure Eyes is town?

[copper223]

@Heartless
Also Dave as scum derails the main opposing wagon?

[davesaz]

Dave, who are your top 3 scum-reads and why?

Mastin -- throwing out empty reads that get wagons started but not backing them up with anything.

Heartless -- I really can't see town being this stubborn. Yes, scum can wiggle their way out and it looks a little like what I'm doing. But when scum flail, they don't openly admit to half the things that people see as scummy. Scum try to deny the charge, not accept it with a "and so what". They'll reject this post too as yet another thing that scum would say to look town. You can lead a horse to water but you don't usually need to make them drink.

I thought Tean might be the next scum read, but my re-read said no they're leaning town.

I'm not a PR worshiper, especially not the roles that eyestott and copper claimed. Copper's behavior leads me to question earlier scum reads and say he's probable town, eyestott is still scummy if it weren't for the claim. That said, I'd much rather consolidate on someone else and let scum have the task of eliminating them.

Wicked is strong town. Of all the people voting me, he's actually saying something concrete about it. I have to swallow my pride and retract the "nobody said why I'm scummy" position.

Beast or vettrock as scum, perhaps? So little to go on...

[davesaz]

BBT - town. Not just for correctly reading me, but he's clearly trying to figure out who is scum if I'm not.

Anen - I honestly don't know. The RL stuff is totally screwing with my read.

dodgy, killapenwin -- you know those players who fade in and out of your sight? These are those players this game. I would have to iso them to refresh my memory of what they have done. Not like vettrock and beast who are barely there at all, dodgy and killapenwin are present and not accounted for.

[Heartless]

Anti, go lay down. You're being silly.

I really can't see town being this stubborn.

It seems you don't know Anti very well at all.

Also, where were you when I was suspecting mastin a while ago? If you're going to insist you "caught" her on page 2, it seems you have quite a bit more pride to swallow.

Heartless, let's play a game of logic questions. I'll ask and you can answer. If you want to ask as well I have no objection.
Anticipating the next post being "nice misdirection", it's not. This is going to help my read of you. It may help your read of me. Bonus points if we catch scum today. That happens to be what I really care about, it's a matter of getting people (you in particular) to admit it.

1. Is a mislynch ever the best move for town?

1. Excepting very special circumstances, such as a vengeful townie in LYLO, no.

-TTH

[dodgy56]

@Dodgy
Why are you pretty sure Eyes is town?

its mainly meta, but i dont see eyes fake claiming a PR given my past experience with him. he also adjusted his read based on one of my games just finished at our homesite. As scum he has no reason to do so (i mean you could claim it is to get some town-cred from me, but im the only one who would know anything about it.) Moreover at that point i was already believing his claim because i doubt scum eyes makes that fkae claim play so it doesnt acheive much. I find it much more likely he saw what happened in that game and realised that what he accusing me of being scum for is something i did as town, so its at best a null tell.

[davesaz]

I really can't see town being this stubborn.

It seems you don't know Anti very well at all.

Also, where were you when I was suspecting mastin a while ago? If you're going to insist you "caught" her on page 2, it seems you have quite a bit more pride to swallow.

If that suspicion had come with a vote on mastin instead of me, we would now have a wagon on an arguably more scummy player.

2. If a town player is in serious danger of a mislynch, and there is no other wagon or even popular scum read to work with, is defending to try to stop the mislynch reasonable? Note, this is not asking if it's

best

, just if it's reasonable.

Corollary: Suppose said town player's best scum read is the person who started the wagon with absolutely no evidence. Is the likely result of an OMGUS going to be a stampede to wagon that scum read, or will the about-to-be-mislynched townie's action now give people a real reason to vote him where there wasn't one before?

[Heartless]

2. If a town player is in serious danger of a mislynch, and there is no other wagon or even popular scum read to work with, is defending to try to stop the mislynch reasonable? Note, this is not asking if it's best, just if it's reasonable.

It certainly is not best, in my opinion, but I suppose it's at least understandable in theory. Stopping the mislynch would seem to entail securing an alternate one though, as it seems people on this site are very averse to no-lynches.

[Heartless]

Corollary: Suppose said town player's best scum read is the person who started the wagon with absolutely no evidence. Is the likely result of an OMGUS going to be a stampede to wagon that scum read, or will the about-to-be-mislynched townie's action now give people a real reason to vote him where there wasn't one before?

If the argument is so flimsy that it

can

be validly dismissed as mere "OMGUS," said argument probably wasn't strong enough to begin with. If the argument

is

strong enough, the townie can easily rebut accusations of OMGUS with specific and cogent reasoning.

[Wickedestjr]

TTH only has completed games with me as scum and this is not how I play it, so I did not alter my scum meta as far as she knows, I have played in what can superfically be classified as a scummy fashion by voting a lot of players and wagon hopping, did you see how many players I have been scumreading this game, basically everyone minus Beast, Tean and Vettrock, and those because of lack of content, and you because the way you have been analysing this game is pretty pro town so likely coming from a town as well, this is going to change right about now because I am on the same page as mastin with a team of

Ok, but TTH is one player (or half a player) in a game where the majority is seven. And you admitted to playing scummy, so I don't see why it matters that you played a different 'scummy'. Also, why couldn't you have waited until lylo to act scummy?

As for your wagon comment on Eyestott, your point is I did not see the same, or worse, wagon dynamics going on with Eyes,

I'm telling you I did not notice the same lack of resistance in his wagon that I got from Dave

, if your interpretation is correct, likely because when Dave was getting driven to L-2 nothing else was going on, during the Eyestott wagon period we had other reads floating about like Heartless saying he liked Aneninen and Killa as scum, the absence of a vote count also made it harder to see how quickly Eyes was driven to L-2 the first time, after I left the wagon my main concern moved to TTH's case on Mastin and if she was onto something, until Killa erroneously put Eyes to L-1 and I went back to check on the Eyes play and found he was actively lurking, that sums it up for me.

The bolded seems to contradict what you said before. In post 655, you said "I agree that by the end the Eyes bandwagon had more support."

@All
If Eyestott is scum you should revisit Wicked as well, from his play alone he looks pretty town but he is defending him pretty strongly.

It really frustrates me when people say this kind of thing. I've lost count of how many times I've heard this, because this happens time and time again. Everyone is attacking a player... I think that player is town... I say that I think that player is town... at least one player gives me flak for disagreeing (even though the player hasn't even flipped yet)... that player flips town... lynch wasted. This happened in my last two games;
Open 563, everyone wants to lynch The Bulge, I say he's town, he gets lynched day 2 and flips town.
Open 558, everyone wants to lynch tn, I am certain that he's town, people don't listen and I even see the "Trust me Wicked" from another townie. tn flipped town.
Please don't play this card. This happens to me often. Even if I was scum here, I wouldn't be foolish enough to strongly defend a partner - I've tried that before and it went horribly wrong (but wifom I guess). I am confident that eyestott is town.

[davesaz]

Corollary: Suppose said town player's best scum read is the person who started the wagon with absolutely no evidence. Is the likely result of an OMGUS going to be a stampede to wagon that scum read, or will the about-to-be-mislynched townie's action now give people a real reason to vote him where there wasn't one before?

If the argument is so flimsy that it

can

be validly dismissed as mere "OMGUS," said argument probably wasn't strong enough to begin with. If the argument

is

strong enough, the townie can easily rebut accusations of OMGUS with specific and cogent reasoning.

I can't make a believable case out of Mastin's first 10 posts, can you?
Double ISO her and me up to her 10th post and see if you can make her case on me.

I appreciate the dialogue. What scum are you going to vote?

[Aneninen]

Prod dodge.
Maybe tomorrow I'll have more time.

[dodgy56]

Corollary: Suppose said town player's best scum read is the person who started the wagon with absolutely no evidence. Is the likely result of an OMGUS going to be a stampede to wagon that scum read, or will the about-to-be-mislynched townie's action now give people a real reason to vote him where there wasn't one before?

If the argument is so flimsy that it

can

be validly dismissed as mere "OMGUS," said argument probably wasn't strong enough to begin with. If the argument

is

strong enough, the townie can easily rebut accusations of OMGUS with specific and cogent reasoning.

I can't make a believable case out of Mastin's first 10 posts, can you?
Double ISO her and me up to her 10th post and see if you can make her case on me.

I appreciate the dialogue. What scum are you going to vote?

mastin is an odd one for me.. she is pushing cases with certainty that i cant understand at all. such as the dave push early and "assuming eyes is scum". Can someone tell me if thats normal for mastin. IF we lynch dave and he flips town mastin looks significantly worse IMO.

[Heartless]

I can't make a believable case out of Mastin's first 10 posts, can you?
Double ISO her and me up to her 10th post and see if you can make her case on me.

Number of posts should be irrelevant. I can't make her case on you because I don't know what newbscum tells she refers to.

-TTH

[Heartless]

Here's that Tean thing I was looking up.

Spoiler: wall prevention

93 - penwin scum analysis

97 - vettrock not scum hunting

163 - BBT coasting

182, 189 - my reads list is filler (incorrect but at least it's something)

231 saying i'm active on site but not working here. eyestott opportunistic. penwin salty. dodgy inquisitive, wicked informative (I would use insightful)

530. penwin not hunting. things wouldn't end up well -> vengeful crumb?
asks penwin about people idolizing mastin
says that my 312 means that i wouldn't play optimally as either scum or town

589 clarifies that penwin didn't post "things wouldnt end up well", editing errors. I confirmed that nobody said those exact words. Penwin did say that Tean wasn't looking good.

705 explains the "idolizing mastin" thing, calls eyestott a white knight to mastin and a cheerleader for the wagon
says their vote on me is for reasons other than the cheerleading
Dodgy's vote was too eager to be towny

706 eye and dodgy are not likely to both be scum. if one is scum the other is likely town

708 bbt is town but not completely so

898 my focus is in the wrong place

922 acknowledges that i have pointed out discrepancies in how i'm treated vs others, but questions some of the links

967 again with calling some of the links filler

I think this is probably town. 231, 705, and 706 are quite accurate. 898 is an opinion that town should have. It may even be a little true, though I of course will continue to defend my defensiveness. 922 I see town conceding points a lot more often than scum, and keeping the doubts there and again in 967 isn't something that scum often do -- scum would either capitulate or press harder, the middle road response is much more townie.

I probably should have paid attention to the vote progression, but did not take notes on that.

This read confuses me. The things Tean call you out for are nearly identical to the things Anti called you out for. The only difference is that Anti was much more abrasive and used a few more f-bombs than Tean did, which is much more in line with differences in personality between Anti and Tean than anything. Not backing down is also more of a personality tell than an alignment tell. It tells me Anti is stubborn, which I could have told you before this game. Giving Anti a town role PM doesn't suddenly make him not obstinate, just as I imagine the contents of Tean's role PM doesn't change his personality.

-TTH

[dodgy56]

I can't make a believable case out of Mastin's first 10 posts, can you?
Double ISO her and me up to her 10th post and see if you can make her case on me.

Number of posts should be irrelevant. I can't make her case on you because I don't know what newbscum tells she refers to.

-TTH

quantity isnt relevant- its quality that matters. and i can that mastin is showing what she believes in her posts, but i dont see the explanation of how she got there. to me thats important.

[Heartless]

It's important insofar as it makes for a convincing argument. My problem with mastin's early game is how the vote changed given the conviction behind the dave vote, i.e. reading one way and voting another. The opacity of the reasoning only added to the problem because it didn't allow for a clear tracking of the read.

-TTH

[davesaz]

Re 1042: Not sure why the comparison to anti is relevant to reading tean. The posts of teans that i linked include material not related to me which has a large effect on the tean read. Phonepost

[davesaz]

Re 1044 neither read seems to have any basis in fact.

[Heartless]

Re 1042: Not sure why the comparison to anti is relevant to reading tean. The posts of teans that i linked include material not related to me which has a large effect on the tean read. Phonepost

You're townreading Tean and scumreading Anti even though they're both saying similar things. There's a fundamental conflict here.

-TTH

[killapenwin]

Ok, I am definitely not getting on this Dave wagon today, the case against him is weak and borne from him trying to defend himself since the beginning. I don't see this as credible reason to vote him much less lynch him.

Eyestott and Copper will be prime targets for scum tonight so if they are town they won't be around much longer anyway and there is no point giving scum less work to do.

I really don't like how BC has coasted almost the entire first day with nothing to show and I ask that the rest of you follow me in voting him.

vote:BeastCharizard

[Wickedestjr]

BTW,

if

Mastin turns up scum here.

I knew on page 2.

That's really interesting considering;
A. You've never voted mastin.
and
B.

Mastin -- null, need input.

Aneninen -- null, insufficient content

Dodgy -- null->town, curiosity seems genuine, trying to determine alignment in 167

Wickedestjr -- lean town gut

copper's 158 is mixed. The vote is sheep, I like the logic on killapenwin, agree that Vettrock needs to be watched, but don't get calling beast town with so little content. Seems a bit thrown together.