Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[copper223]

@Vettrock
Gaiden always lurks, if he would start posting he would be instalynched, he lurked there most likely because his meta only lets him play like that, it was a valid strategy for him.

@Killa
Your point on Beast is good, maybe he is abusing his meta here, idk.

[Jackal711]

Prodding

Tean Samargo

and

beastcharizard

[BlueBloodedToffee]

You concede the point Copper?

Copper is likely scum.

I still want to lynch Anen as well.

But nobody is listening.

So I'll crawl back into my hole until people want to listen.

[beastcharizard]

First school, then I will blow all of your minds because I am not out of the loop like it has seemed.

[Wickedestjr]

Damned right I'd have unvoted had I been around. If I gave the description I am giving right here, right now, about dave, unvoted him, and you were on the wagon...wouldn't you? It's the reason I owe dave an apology.

You bring up some good points, but I personally saw nothing strong enough to make me ignore

everything else

and unvote him

so close to deadline

. Oh, one more question: have you ever apologized to a player you’ve mislynched or tried to mislynch before?


I'll try to figure out this game during the weekend...

[copper223]

@BBT
I admit I may be wrong as this would be no great surprise this game.

Starting with the main lynch drivers from yesterday seemed fairly obvious to me, but like everyone else I have my own set of biases and both Heartless TTH side and Mastin read town to me, the latter less so.

Aneninen gave a 90% confidence townread on the designated mislynch from yesterday, if he boldly WKed Dave good for him but that gives him quite a few town points in my book.

[mastin2]

So you are saying you would have dropped off and caused a NoLynch?

If necessary?

Yes.

But I'd have tried to speedwagon you instead. If you didn't get lynched and the day ended in a no-lynch, oh well. But I would never in a million years have willingly supported the dave lynch after seeing his play the last day. Only problem was, I was working during deadline. (Well, working plus square dancing. I get up at 6:00 AM PST. I get home at 10:00 PM PST. I literally don't have a Sunday day. It's there every week except occasionally the second of the month where I have work ALL day, except a break from 2-5 that I usually use to take a long nap but occasionally spend mafiaing. It's an inconvenience, but I DO have weekend V/LA marked in my sig for good reason.)

Dave wasn't town in hindsight; dave was town at the time. I read chronologically so I didn't know what he flipped until I got to the mod post. But I 'knew' what he flipped because I could tell with everything he was doing. It's all irrelevant, though. What I was saying wasn't meant as a message to other players. I was speaking specifically to dave, to tell him how awesome he was in that last day and give him some advice (which he may or may not feel like taking out of bitterness/spite, but is good advice all the same), not to you.

[mastin2]

Oh, one more question: have you ever apologized to a player you’ve mislynched or tried to mislynch before?

All the time. As town, it's an obligation of mine to apologize. If I take place in the lynching of town, I have failed.

...Now, different story as scum. I'll apologize, but I keep it entirely in the mafia QT/PT when doing so. "Sorry I lynched you, but, yaknow, scum, kinda had to and all that", type of stuff.

[vettrock]

Oh, one more question: have you ever apologized to a player you’ve mislynched or tried to mislynch before?

All the time. As town, it's an obligation of mine to apologize. If I take place in the lynching of town, I have failed.

This is an answer to a question asked which would be a normal town response.

...Now, different story as scum. I'll apologize, but I keep it entirely in the mafia QT/PT when doing so. "Sorry I lynched you, but, yaknow, scum, kinda had to and all that", type of stuff.

This addition however seems to show a little too much awareness of her own meta, and an attempt to say, "See, I'm not scum, I did that thing I don't do as scum."

[Heartless]

On my docket today, I have: look at the game again through the lens of the flips and update the town reads. Since the first experiment was a bust, we need a new hypothesis.

[killapenwin]

First school, then I will blow all of your minds because I am not out of the loop like it has seemed.

Still waiting. Do something other than prodging.

[Aneninen]

Later this evening I come.

[vettrock]

@Vettrock
Gaiden always lurks, if he would start posting he would be instalynched, he lurked there most likely because his meta only lets him play like that, it was a valid strategy for him.

@Killa
Your point on Beast is good, maybe he is abusing his meta here, idk.

So if Gaiden always lurks, that would seem to disprove that you have never seen a hard core lurker flip scum, assuming you read the game I posted.

[copper223]

@Vettrock
I only played with Gaiden town and I was scum, he seemed like an easy push so I started to position myself for the mislynch but everyone else was,townreading him, so I asked them: what's up, and they explained he always plays like this and that's why I know his meta, I did not read your game but in this special case I believe it's possible, because contrary to how a normal player would be playing against his wincon for him it would make sense, I can see beast abusing his meta as well if he lurks a lot as town, but those are the exceptions.

[Aneninen]

Okay,

BBT, the answers, although some of them might be irrelevant now:

Spoiler:

583

"The 'looking for confirmation' from Mastin for your read on me is weird as well. Not sure what I make of that yet."

– At that time I had no strong read on you. Mastin shouted all the time that you're town. In short, my thoughts were the following: if Mastin's town it's still better to believe her about you

right then

, until I get a surer read on you. If she's scum, it's very unlikely that she would protect you so vehemently if you were her scumbuddy. Right now I don't think you're scum.

"460 - Another scummy post from Anen. Like, he is being careful here to make sure he can't be accounted for anything he says."

– this refers to an interaction between Copper and me. Copper said that I was trying to trick him, I responded that it would be pointless to trick

directly him

, since he's not the only player I met before in different games. Then he replied it was partly a reaction test or whatever. I simply don't understand why you interpreted my post in the way you did.
As for my readlist, which was "magical" in your opinion. Someone had asked for a list before and that was the best I could do that time. Even I admitted that it hadn't been too much. Frankly, what should I have done? Making up things out of nothing? Lying that I have good reads on most of the players?

714 –

"Anen, you 'examine' the wagon but don't actually analyse anything. You examine the wagon and then state you will 'examine dodgy later', well, wouldn't the time be now? You know, when you're examining the wagon?"

– refers to my 669. I wanted to analyse the players on the Eyestott-wagon. I thought that Eyestott's claim was real (and it turned out to be real later). The scummiest-looking players were Mastin, Copper and Dodgy. Dodgy is dead. Copper would be a bad lynch Today, I've already explained it, why. There were Davesaz (dead), KillaPenguin and you. I don't want to lynch Penguin. Nor you. So, the one who remains is Mastin. I'll ISO her later (and I'm

pretty sure

that you'll remind me every now and then that I promised an ISO about her so, that will happen sooner or later. But I want to catch-up with the game first.)

That's all I've found in your ISO.

Catching-up with everything else.

Spoiler:

Heartless, 1107 – explaining and explaining about their hydra. As SK they were more "team-like". My intuition would say they're simply fluffing which is scummy but my experience contradicts this. The only thing I'm quite sure that they're not the SK.

Copper, 1109 – That's silly. It's sure that "leading townies" should be questioned after a mislynch but, I don't think it's enough reason for a vote

in itself

. I've seen plenty of townies totally misreading players (and I've done that too a couple of times before).

Mastin, 1110 – Hmmm... I remember Antihero fighting with me in another game. We had a vehement argument there and both of us were town. Do you mean something like that?

Wicked, 1111 –

"I already explained yesterday that I was giving beast and vettrock a free pass because I knew their lynches would yield close to nothing."

– Where? Can you link it?

Mastin, 1112 – this is a kind of newbscum reasoning. (I mean, it feels like an over-explaining.) Those, who have played a lot with her: is it typical of Mastin as scum?

Vettrock, 1119 – the first part

makes no sense

more precisely, what you're saying is right but I don't see that it explains anything. As for the second part: those names – Heartless, BBT and Beast – weren't on both wagons. By the way, your list about the Eyestott-wagon was incomplete. (I wonder what you're going to post about Mastin later.)
Also, the later posts from Vettrock are very different from his townplay I saw before. Somehow they

seem

to be contentful but they ...aren't.

Beast, 1128 – THAT post helped a lot (Frankly, what if he's SK?)

Mastin, 1131 – Uhhh...

"But I'd have tried to speedwagon you

(Vettrock)

instead."

– where? You mentioned 30% in 678. "Would vote Vettrock" a post later. Okay, you said

"Will lynch bettock in a heartbeat."

in 781 but you hadn't you been talking about lynching Copper seven posts before or so? In itself, I would believe the rest of that post about Davesaz but it feels like "pushing Vettrock without pushing him

too

hard". And the mirror of this behaviour might be in 1133 from Vettrock...

Summary. We really shouldn't perform a mislynch Today. So, instead of a town/scum list I examine the "lynchability". (The names in each groups are from the "worst-lynch" to the "best-lynch" order.)

These players would be terrible lynches in my opinion: KillaPenguin, BBT, Copper. The first two players are town according to my reads, and lynching Copper would be too risky.

These are the may-or-may-not cathegory: Wicked, Beast, Heartless, Tean. Wicked gives me town-vibes, but sometimes I can't focus on his long posts, and it's not a good sign. (I remember doing that as scum – although, I do the same as town...) Beast is a lurksack, I wouldn't lynch him Today but the more he lurks, the more scummy he is. Heartless is eh, I explained it above that he can't be the SK but that's all I'm sure about. I was scumreading Tean, but right now he should start posting again or should be replaced. In the latter case we must see his replacement's concent later.

These seem to be the best ideas: Mastin, Vettrock – check the spoiler They may be scum together too.
But, before I vote I want to ISO both of them. (But that's happening later and I know that tomorrow I'll have a busy day.) If it turns out that I'm misreading these two, the list above should be examined thoroughly.

[vettrock]

Phoneposting:
To explain the misding names on thw agons, I looked at the vote count posts from the mid and built my list that way. Who am I missing?

[Aneninen]

These names were on the Eyestott wagon (in the order of appearance)
Dodgy, BBT, Copper, Davesaz, Mastin, Killapenguin (before Penguin, Copper left the wagon)
Then Davesaz remained, who left and Copper was on the wagon next.

[copper223]

davesaz

- Mastin2, Wickedestjr,

Dodgy

, Tean Samargo,

eyestott

davesaz

- Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo,

eyestott

,

Copper

davesaz

- Tean Samargo, Mastin2, Heartless, beastcharizard, Wickedestjr, Vettrock,

Copper

eyestott

-

Dodgy

, BBT,

Copper

,

davesaz

, Mastin2

eyestott

-

Dodgy

, BBT,

davesaz

, Mastin2, Killapenwen

Maybe this is just town self imploding and it's Tean/Beast and either Vettrock or Aneninen doing nothing.

[beastcharizard]

My idea was to be an easy mislynch. On day 1 scum always look for a mislynch they can push. I figured I would try to bait them into pushing me. Then if they were remotely successful I would come out the gate swingy and show that I am actually town and that the push is scum motivated and only being done because it looked easy.

[mastin2]

This addition however seems to show a little too much awareness of her own meta.

Well,

duh

. NO player on MS.net is more aware of their own meta than me. None. Trust me, I've seen a lot of players who

think

they know their own meta, but they don't.

Frankly, the thing that makes me dangerous as scum IS that I, legitimately, do. In fact...I know my meta so well that I have a metametagame. I have a perfect understanding of my circumstances, "situational awareness" as I call it, which makes me able to adapt on the fly to be whatever I need to be. I do this as both town and scum, but it's most notable in my scumgame because it's most effective therein.

...Now

all that said

, you'd think the obvious conclusion from this would be that metaing me is worthless, that I cannot be read off of past game experience. And to some extent, you'd be right. Try metaing me from a small sample size of less than ten, you're guaranteed to fail. But believe it or not, you

can

get a grasp of how my mind operates. Just because I'm aware of my actions as town/scum doesn't mean I can change them--and even IF I can, just because I can doesn't mean I will. (Because breaking my natural habits as scum takes a tremendous amount of effort.)

I can put it this way...it's partially me being me, and partially me probably having played more games on ms.net than any other player (the most conservative estimate would place it at low-140s. A higher estimate would be 175-200 by this point), but with experience came wisdom and knowledge, which I've put to good use, but with said experience also came habits that players sharing extensive experience with me (a-la Antihero) can pick up on.

In short, try to meta me this game, guarantee you'll fail.
Try to meta me ten games with me from now, and you won't even NEED to do the meta; the knowledge needed to read me will already have instinctively seeped in. (Well, it does for MOST players, anyway. The more logical the player, the harder this seems to be. They don't seem to "get" the concept of situational awareness meaning my towngames are vastly different from one another and my scumgames are vastly different from one another off of the different contexts.)

[killapenwin]

My idea was to be an easy mislynch. On day 1 scum always look for a mislynch they can push. I figured I would try to bait them into pushing me. Then if they were remotely successful I would come out the gate swingy and show that I am actually town and that the push is scum motivated and only being done because it looked easy.

This is just awful strategy: look scummy as hell, provide no reads, then OMGUS the person voting you? Just awful.

[killapenwin]

If I see Mastin say trust me one more time...

[mastin2]

By the way, call it gut if you must, but REALLY strongly thinking Aneninen is town right now. Don't expect an explanation for this one, though; I'm not sure the words would ever be right.

Mastin, 1110 – Hmmm... I remember Antihero fighting with me in another game. We had a vehement argument there and both of us were town. Do you mean something like that?

Actually, the opposite. Anti and I jive really, really well. We get synergy going quite well once we stop being paranoid about the other being scum. Now, that doesn't

always

give us accuracy, but it does far more often than not.

(I mean, it feels like an over-explaining.) Those, who have played a lot with her: is it typical of Mastin as scum?

Overexplaining? Yep. That's a scumtell of mine, alright. Not a very strong one, though. Depends on the timing. In the RVS?

Lynch me with fire

. (Well, not necessarily RVS, but general earlygame.) In newbies and most opens? Probably not. (Because I like to impress newbs and put on a show, which I normally don't do for players who know me. With players who know me, far more often than not, I'll just lazily go about, and occasionally spring a long-winded ramble, kinda like this. Said rambles are generally a towntell, though, because while overexplaining a read is a scumtell, going on massive tangents is a towntell. Albeit not too strong of one, but stronger a towntell than the scumtell. If I had to give percentages, overall, overexplaining would be 57.5% scum, whereas rambling would be 62.5% town, with 50% being the nullline.)

Uhhh...

"But I'd have tried to speedwagon you

(Vettrock)

instead."

– where? You mentioned 30% in 678. "Would vote Vettrock" a post later. Okay, you said

"Will lynch bettock in a heartbeat."

in 781 but you hadn't you been talking about lynching Copper seven posts before or so? In itself, I would believe the rest of that post about Davesaz but it feels like "pushing Vettrock without pushing him

too

hard". And the mirror of this behaviour might be in 1133 from Vettrock...

Everything you're listing IS me pushing vettock? Like, I discussed lynching copper, but mostly in the academic sense that if I did so, I'd do so consciously believing I wasn't lynching scum and that his vengeshot would be an okay compensation. Yet when it comes to dave, had I been around, the bit about having a vengeshot wouldn't apply--thus, I'd be unwilling to allow it to go through. Especially given readstrength--copper was probtown, but dave at the end of yesterday was basically at conftown levels of townning it up. I really, really wish deadline was a day later so I'd have been around to tell you this stuff then rather than in hindsight, but you have my word.
Absolute WORD.
100% guaranteed town-scum-I-don't-care-I'd-never-violate-this-vow-EVER, that everything I'm saying I'd say at the time, too, and it's not his flip that is allowing me to say it.

So damn right that given the choice between a no-lynch, a townlynch, or a vettrock lynch, I'm going after vettock.

Mastin, Vettrock – check the spoiler They may be scum together too.

Helpful hint.

If you think I'm scum with someone and I'm voting said someone (and/or they're voting me)...
100% of the time.
LYNCH THE SAID SOMEONE

FIRST

.

You'll never regret it.

[mastin2]

Maybe this is just town self imploding and it's Tean/Beast and either Vettrock or Aneninen doing nothing.

At this stage, I GUARANTEE you vettock is scum.

Tean's an

extremely

likely candidate for being scum as well.

Ditto for a third; haven't compiled all my notes, yet.

[mastin2]

Heartless
copper223
Aneninen
Wickedestjr
beastcharizard
BlueBloodedToffee
killapenwin
Tean samargo
vettock

Town to scum. Doesn't necessarily mean that vettock-tean-killa's the scumteam, but should give you a fair approximation of things right now.