Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[killapenwin]

@Anen if you think beast might be SK why is your vote not on him?

[Aneninen]

I've been waiting for Mastin's answer so as to decide my best place for my vote. I'm going to post about it tomorrow, alongside with my vote and with my answer to Mastin; it's about 1am now and tonorrow I'm working in the morning.

[Tean Samargo]

1079 - Anen, what you're saying makes sense... but outta curiosity, why are you calling out a
vigilante? Do you think last night was due to a vigilante and scum? I'd like to hear what
you think.

1081 - I agree with BBT here. I don't like you saying "my reads this game have been embarassing"
at all. It's already evident that your reads have been wonky because you're jumpy. Starting with the
Dave wagon (and the eyestott wagon to an extent), you've been jumping ship from "scum" to "not
scum" which ultimately ends with you hammering Dave. This quote gives off the impression that you're
looking for pity from the other townies (as well as maintaining a townie vibe in general).

Your most recent vote on mastin also ruffles my feathers quite a bit. You'd like to question
mastin for starting the whole dave wagon, but you had a change of heart toward dave near the
deadline. What's your reasoning for bringing down the hammer on dave?

I don't think I fancy a beast lynch at this moment of time.

-Faustbyte

[copper223]

@Tean
There was no viable counterwagon, there were 16 hours on the clock so I did not know if I would be able to check again and Dave was at the very least a good information flip, so better than a NL.

At least I have had reads, you parked your vote on the mislynch and went mia, but I am happy more likely scum than not is pressuring me on Mastin.

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 2.3

killapenwin (1) - Heartless
BlueBloodedToffee (0) -
Heartless (0) -
copper223 (0) -
vettrock (2) - BlueBloodedToffee, mastin2
Aneninen (0) -
Wickedestjr (0) -
beastcharizard (2) - killapenwin, Wickedestjr
Tean Samargo (0) -
mastin2 (1) - copper223

Not Voting: vettrock, Aneninen, beastcharizard, Tean Samargo

With 10 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is Tuesday, February 3rd at 10:30 pm PST which is in (expired on 2015-02-03 22:30:00)

[Aneninen]

This

post

wall is about Mastin.

(1) She's provided plenty of content about how we should read him, has tried to be very convincing and charming to explain that she's town. –

This may be true but could be easily faked by scum-Mastin too.

(2) Her reads are changing very fast, and they're moving on a very wide scale. They're mostly based upon previous experience, intuition and in very rare cases on specific posts. I can believe that it's a possible gamestyle from her. But, a gamestyle like this is much more useful for a scum than for a townie.
Why do I say that? A gamestyle like this provides a perfect excuse for her if she pushes a mislynch wagon or ends up jumping on one.
This happened in the case of Davesaz too. I can believe that she was away IRL before the end of Day1, but she's experienced enough to use a thing like that for her own advantage.
On the other hand, if my setup speculation (see below!) is not only a worst-case setup but also the correct one and if she really adjusts her gameplay to the particular game she's in,

this behaviour is seriously anti-town

.

(3) She pushed the Davesaz-wagon really hard and as far as I can see, she provided only general things (like "davesaz is throwing just about every newbscum tell in the book" and "reaction testing) about him, instead of a well-built case.

This is a fact.

(4) She was on the Eyestott wagon too, therefore she was on both of the Day1 major wagons. Both Eyestott and Davesaz flipped town.

This is a fact.

(Side-note. A little bit of caveat is this one: it would have been better for the scums if a PR had been lynched on Day1. So, jumping back on the Davesaz-wagon instead of pushing the Eyestott wagon is a mild towntell. Although, it's possible that the scums were going for a sure mislynch instead of a No Lynch.)

(1) is not a real tell in itself. (2) is speculative, I must admit, but it's scummy. However, (3) and (4) are facts.

Why have I waited so long with my read? After all, what I'm saying is not based upon new information.
It was because of the Vettrock push. I never scumread Davesaz. Eyestott, on the other hand looked scummy before his claim (I think I posted somewhere that I'd vote for him), but Mastin's attitude towards Vettrock is a bit different. She started scumreading him on Day1 and it seems to be a non-changing read from her. Also, I too think Vettrock is scummy.

So,

I thought there was a chance that Mastin was town-PR; Gunsmith, RoleCop or another Tracker (1-shot included)

. That'swhy I asked in 1170 these: "Mastin! How sure are you about your Vettrock read? Plus, if you had to lynch anyone but Vettrock Today, whom would you choose and why?"

Her answers can't have come from an investigative PR. I mean, if she knew that Vettrock is scum, he wouldn't have mentioned other posssible names. (She wouldn't have given alternatives, especially for a player (me) who was not voting at that time.) Mentioning Tean could be a bit appeasing (I've never townread Tean), and calling BBT a possible scum is very strange. Not only because she was hard-townreading BBT before, but also because of the fact that I can see no change in BBT's gameplay and her read showed a very big change!

Therefore, Mastin must be scum.

VOTE: Mastin2

Another little caveat.
It

is

possible that Mastin2 is Gunsmith, examined Vettrock and got a positive investigation. That would fit her "90% sure" read, because in this case Vettrock can be Vigilante...
However, I strongly think that we have an SK and not a Vig. Because, in my opinion the Vig should have claimed his/her shot by now. I know that outing a PR would be bad for the town. But, it would help us reading the game – and if we knew that there's probably no SK, we would know that we're in a better situation then eg. I think. So, the gain would be bigger than the loss. (2 PRs are known, if Copper's claim is real, 3. So, most probably there are 3 mafias and an SK. That's what I mean by "worst-case setup". Therefore, we should avoid a mislynch at all costs and that'swhy I've wanted to get the possible surest read I could get.)

Also, some additional things.
I doubt that Mastin would bus in this phase of the game. (I won't explain this because it would help the scums more than the town.)
So, if Mastin is scum, Vettrock can't be scum with her. In this case, if they're SK and Mafia, I'm misreading Beast (because he can't be SK then).
Also, if Mastin is Mafia (and not SK), she does a damm good job by confusing the later partner-analysis. She super-townread (and townreads) plenty of players: Wicked, BBT, Heartless, me (!)... so, if Mastin flips Mafia, I would say that her most possible partner is Heartless, because that tonwread is based upon not only meta but also upon a kind of "we know each other too well" things. (And yes, I know that partner speculation s-cks until we have a scumflip.)

[copper223]

There are 10 of us alive, unless I see a vig claim after this post I will assume 6 are town, 3 are scum and 1 is an SK.

If we mislynch, tomorrow as a worst case we have a Lylo with 3 townies where the decider is the SK vote, this scenario is basically unwinnable for town, so I think we should massclaim today.

[copper223]

No that's a mistake, 2 scum and 1 SK, I still think we should consider mass claiming.

[copper223]

I also think the Dodgy kill may be related to the scum bus driver.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

How do you know we have 2 scum?

[copper223]

Because it's by far the most likely scenario given the claims and the kills.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

How are you working it out?

[copper223]

I don't think a unified faction kills both eyestott and dodgy, and if were in a PR rich environment it's more likely a vigilante would have claimed by now.

[copper223]

I also have an idea about how many missing PR's there may be based on how the players are acting and the number of missing PR's needed to enter a 3 scum game is not supported.

[copper223]

My best guess at the moment is Mastin2/Tean/Beast and Heartless.

[Heartless]

How are you working it out?

it's not a vig. obv kill for a vig would be copper. if you have a ~90% shot of someone being scum, you take that shot.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I thought there was a way he was working out the set-up.

I realise he is just going on his best guess now though.

[beastcharizard]

Heartless is scum. They remind me of a game I read. I will have to find a link to it later because the name escapes me. It was an open game though and they were the SK I believe. They def were not town.

you mean the one where we played like a vig until the 3 man lylo? c9++? that one?

dude, you don't even read the games you're in. i have a hard time believing you actually read that game.

Ok, let me tell you about that game then.

1. You were SK.
2. You were roleblocked the night the roleblocker, Monkeyman, was killed.
3. It was mainly TTH talking
4. Jingle was the host
5. Ask me anything else you think I wouldn't know if I hadn't read the game.

Lets go with the fact that you don't believe I read the game but yet I am calling you scum? Why would you not be voting me then? That would clearly be me making up reads for the sake of having reads which is scummy.

VOTE: Heartless

[Heartless]

3 is wrong and i've been doing most of the talking here soooooooo
your argument isn't consistent with itself.

also 1,2,and4 are things you could figure out in 2 seconds.

also beast, somewhere along the way, you got really lazy. remember that voidedmafia game we replaced into (mastin was there). you called us scum for.... exactly no reason and both our slots were town.

plz remove head from anus

[beastcharizard]

You are right abotu me calling you scum randomly that game. I feel like if I call you scum then you will prove me wrong. I really do feel a similar feel to that game Jingle modded. I swear I remember the initialls TTH like 10 times more than your name.

I thought you were TTH but I guess the aggressiveness should have let me know it was you.

Tell me who I should be focusing my attention on then.

[killapenwin]

work it out for yourself?

[Wickedestjr]

Working on a post now.

/prod dodge

[beastcharizard]

killa, why are you answering for Anti? He clearly dislikes my attack on him so I was asking who he thought I should focus on instead of him. I wasn't saying: "I want to sheep your reads so tell me them."

Are you still not content with what I am doing? What can I do to appease you?

[vettrock]

Because it's by far the most likely scenario given the claims and the kills.

In order for there to be two scum and one SK, there would have to be TTTTT. Given that we know that we have at least one I, and one P, that leaves no other power roles. Since copper is claiming vengeful, I'm not sure how he can come to this conclusion unless his claim is fake. Assuming his claim is valid, there has to be three scum and a serial killer: TTT. If there was a vig, that would mean for his claim to be true, it would have to be IPKK?TT. I think the TTT is more likely, so I don't think there is a vig.

I am leaning towards copper, mastin2 and BBT as the scum. Two of them also happen to be voting me, but I at least like to think it is not solely a OMGUS vote on my part. Mastin seems the most likely to me.
VOTE: Mastin2

[vettrock]

Because it's by far the most likely scenario given the claims and the kills.

In order for there to be two scum and one SK, there would have to be TTTTT. Given that we know that we have at least one I, and one P, that leaves no other power roles. Since copper is claiming vengeful, I'm not sure how he can come to this conclusion unless his claim is fake. Assuming his claim is valid, there has to be three scum and a serial killer: TTT. If there was a vig, that would mean for his claim to be true, it would have to be IPKK?TT. I think the TTT is more likely, so I don't think there is a vig.

I am leaning towards copper, mastin2 and BBT as the scum. Two of them also happen to be voting me, but I at least like to think it is not solely a OMGUS vote on my part. Mastin seems the most likely to me.
VOTE: Mastin2

Also, I'm leaning toward BC still as the serial killer, but I'm less certain of that.