Open 581: Making Friends and Enemies! (Game over)

[Malakittens]

;-;

RL is kicking my ass. There's supposed to be a huge snowstorm which will keep me home tuesday or so I hope!

[Grib]

I kinda want to post something at least a little bit productive before I go to bed, so I'm just looking at things since my prod dodge.

Whatisswag is still town, etc.

w/r/t Mala, eh. I want to see her actually play the game before I feel comfortable slotting her. I will say her interaction with Swag is kinda ???.

Grib would be my next choice in scum. He was pushing hard for Elle's lynch yesterday and now he's taking a back seat on things. It makes me wonder what changed. Did he find Elle to be ugly change and then stop? On the other hand, the town Von I play with tends to be more reserved. I am not as confident in Grib scum but I would not cry if he got lynched.

Or

, I decided I was getting tunnel vision on something that I found to be more irritating than scummy and backed off. It's not the first time.

I suck at articulating reads, especially when I sort of get disconnected from the flow of a game. I think Whatisswag, Green Crayons, Heartless, and elle are town. I was leaning town on awesomeusername [Malakittens] and Riddleton [Titus]. I had a townread on Lone Ranger based on her elle pushed but then that sort of dissolved into a big fat ??? when they both 180'd each other. So,

I will not lynch
Whatisswag

I don't want to lynch
Green Crayons, Heartless, elleheathen

I wouldn't mind lynching
Malakittens, Titus, davesaz, Kaboose, Lone Ranger

I want to lynch
CptPicard

The ILF slot smells and everyone's sort of been clashing egos and ignoring it. I don't want to divert 100% of everyone's attention to it, just. Friendly reminder.

I'm gonna go pass out now.

[Armageddon]

Vote count Day 2.5

Players alive: 11

Players needed to lynch: 6

CptPicard

- 1 - Grib - (L-5)

elleheathen

- 1 - davesaz - (L-5)

Green Crayons

- 2 - Lone Ranger, Heartless - (L-4)

Kaboose

- 1 - Whatisswag - (L-5)

Lone Ranger

- 3 - elleheathen, Titus, Green Crayons - (L-3)

Whatisswag

- 1 - Kaboose - (L-5)

Players not voting: CptPicard, MalaKittens

Mod notes:
Still looking for a replacement for CptPicard.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2015-02-01 23:22:00)

[Whatisswag]

Walls are boring. GC's posts just aren't town. Flip GC and figure it out from there.

Wow this coming from you.

[Whatisswag]

It is really suspicious how Green's playstyle in this game is changing throughout the whole game.
I think currently we have some choices:
1) lynch Green
Well I want this
2) lynch LR
Well, I kind of dont support this.
3) lynch mala
Ok.

[Titus]

I agree in theory. I disagree here, though. Sorry, Titus.


Is there another aspect of his D1 play that you think points to him being scum?

Yes. I do not think he's scumhunting at all D1. That plus mason fishing plus his vehavior day 2.

[Titus]

@Grib, What's up with ILF?

Why was Elle's behavior more irritating than scummy.

[Grib]

@Grib, What's up with ILF?

Why was Elle's behavior more irritating than scummy.

She just disappeared. Same with her replacement. For the latter, I could see it being a newbie who replaced into a scumslot and vanished.

The whole giving up/lurking/sheeping combo.

[Kaboose]

I'm getting caught up now.

[Kaboose]

It is if he was boned. Might as well try to spin out of it. A 1 for 1 trade for scum is a hell of a lot better than 0 for 1.

But swag was not in the position of a scum up against a wall.

Swag wasn't even being pressured by anyone but me I don't think. I almost think his claim came from boredom more than anything else.

I seriously dont understand why people are not voting Kaboose.

Case 1: I am mason, Kaboose is scum.

Case 2: I am scum, Kaboose is vt (or he would have claimed long ago).

Obviously it is better to try your chances at a possible vt instead of a possible mason.

I love how there isn't even the possibility of a case 3, he's VT I'm VT? Case 1 is the case you want us to believe but it has two lies in it. You're not a mason, and I'm not scum but let's go with that because obviously it's better to believe horseshit. I also love how case 2 has you subtly suggesting I should have claimed mason already or something? Was that what you wanted to achieve from your mason claim? To get me to claim mason?

Kaboose shows too much caution to be town. I am just the opposite of him.

I believe I've called you out for doing this already, but you're trying to convince people of our alignments by stating something is scummy to do, which happens to be the exact opposite of what you're doing. That doesn't prove anything other than show us that you think something is scummy, and that you're not doing it. How does me being cautious have any indication of my alignment? It doesn't.

I just get overwhelmed sometimes by this site and the way people express their tells that I get reading and just agree and don't think I need to add anything to it.

Hmm.

Find me a scum pair which is more possible than Kaboose and Green. And I will unvote.

I think you and Dave could be a scum team. Mostly because you found this be all end all town tell on him that we're all just supposed to nod and agree with. You've yet to tell us or give us any reason to believe you that dave is town. Like I'm pretty sure if I asked you "Why is dave town?" you would respond "Because Dave is town." That's about the full unabridged extent of your reason.

Spoiler:

You're ignoring the entire context of Ranger's D1 play with respect to her stated suspicions:

- Ranger replaces in, and immediately does into a hard elle push.

- Followed by declaring awesome/Mala scum based on one (valid) point (Post 419).

- But only "Think<s> of switching there," nothing more.

- Unvotes elle in Post 453, but doesn't go to her next suspicion awesome/Mala. Even though in Post 439 Ranger was "debating between Elle and Awesome as the better lynch today."

- Then finds Kaboose scum, "probably with Elle," even though Ranger had already unvoted elle and thus suggesting Ranger's elle suspicions weren't exactly up to par any more (Post 472). This is confirmed in Post 517 when Ranger states "Elle could be town. Her latest posts felt townish." Weird that Ranger goes from elle to Kaboose, rather than elle to awesome/Mala.

- All the more weird for the lack of an awesome vote because in Post 524 Ranger states "Awesome could be scum if you <elle> are town." Ranger was reading elle to be townish (Post 517), which would undercut her associative suspicions of Kaboose and bolster her disassociative suspicions of awesome - thereby leading to an awesome/Mala vote. Not a Kaboose vote.

- No mention of awesome again for remainder of D1.

- Does mention awesome's replacement, Mala, all the way in Post 728. Simply declares: "Malakittens is town. Now to wait for the other replacements (who hopefully will also make their alignments apparent)." Careful - reading Ranger's posts will give you pretty big whiplash as she changes the slot from her biggest scum read to "apparent" town.

- Ranger then proceeds to get dismissive-defensive about the reason and quickness of her Mala read (Post 733, Post 739, Post 741). Also, successfully makes the conversation about something else by attacking someone who had problems with her Mala read (me) (Post 741, Post 743, Post 744, Post 753).


CONCLUSION: If Mala is town, Ranger is a possible buddy. Laid out some suspicions that will look good should awesome/Mala get lynched - "look, I suspected that scum!" - but simply refuses to actually follow through on those suspicions w/r/t awesome, and then when Mala replaces in shifts the read 180 degrees for no real justification (also recall that Heartless noted that Mala was doing the exact same thing that Ranger found suspicious about awesome - fencesitting - and so Ranger's read shouldn't have changed) and attacks her attackers.

I had a similar post a long time ago about this that wasn't written nearly as well. My only problem was with your conclusion. Why do you analyze LR, but then state that we can find out LR through Mala? Why does it work that way?

I believe dave is town more than I think anyone else here is town or scum.

But WHY?! Can we not know your reason for this?!

I still think Swag should be lynched for the fake claim. LR had a weird unLR post with 1271 - and I'm not sure if it was just a prodge or what.

I'm really interested in more from Dave who hasn't been doing much lately(which makes two of us but there's a bit more prodging going on with that slot than mine. I want to know why Swag knows Dave is confTown. I really want to lynch Swag still, but LR or Mala aren't terrible choices as I really didn't like how LR had Mala town read after those 5 meh posts of nothing.

[Green Crayons]

@Kaboose:

I had a similar post a long time ago about this that wasn't written nearly as well. My only problem was with your conclusion. Why do you analyze LR, but then state that we can find out LR through Mala? Why does it work that way?

Answered here:

Also, I disagree that my case on Ranger being a buddy with Mala-scum shows why Ranger is scum independent of Mala's alignment. I don't know what the scum motivation would be behind Ranger's weird play directed toward the slot. (I'm all ears, though.) I don't really like making cases based on a hypothetical flip, but it appears to be the only thing that persuades swag, so that's why I laid it out today instead of after Mala flips.

Post 1198 is a case on why Ranger would be buddies with mala-scum, not a case on why Ranger is scum independently of others' alignment.

[davesaz]

Gosh, I've gotten really behind on this one.

The elle vote is quite stale and needs to be revisited.
UNVOTE:

[Lone Ranger]

titus could be scum.

[elleheathen]

What I wouldn't give for a vigshot right now.

[Lone Ranger]

Why are you voting me again? Because I haven't been posting a lot lately?

[Lone Ranger]

I've made my thoughts pretty clear about GC.

[elleheathen]

And everyone else?

[Lone Ranger]

I don't have strong opinions on everyone else. Heartless is town.

[Heartless]

Spoiler:

You either believe that I had an active, developing read on elle, or you don't. I can give you the reasons, but then if you still don't want to believe me (be it because of confirmation bias, or simple mistrust, or because of your alignment) you can say I am simply retrofitting justifications for my changed stance.

Oh, well then

I don't

. There, how do you like that?

(shrug) Then we skipped to where this was going.

Or, rather, where it already is, and you're seemingly upset that your read of me is what it is, and that it's not going to change just because I tell you some scraps of information. At this point, I'm going to convince you that I'm town by my play and catching scum. And that's about it. That's fine, that's where you and I are at. It doesn't make you stubborn and closeminded. It makes you human who is playing mafia.

We've been interacting for a while now with you getting steadily more suspicious about my play. At this point, continuing a dialog about me is not going to be more productive. I'm not going to pull out a piece of information - truthful, though it will be - that will make you go, "Aha! I see all my suspicions have been assuaged!"

That has never happened to me, on either end of the line of suspicions. Back and forths just go down the rabbit hole if you let the conversation go on for too long. I'm hard pressed to think of a time when that has happened to anyone: just being stopped in the middle of a suspicion-train because just the right piece of thought from the suspectee is divulged to the suspector.

So it's not that I think that you're stubborn or close-minded. I just don't think you're a unique mafia player.

But, hey. Sure. Why not. Maybe this is ~*~ the key ~*~ to seeing that you have been wrong all along. Here you go:

Spoiler: D1 elle read

1.

My first hints of doubt on my elle suspicions actually began before I started questioning her. In Post 491, I noticed that her reads list was quite similar to mine. I put a lot of stock in when other players see the game in the same way I do, so this wasn't a great way to start out into embracing elle suspicions. Regardless, as I noted in that post, elle's read list alone wasn't going to outweigh my suspicions of elle.

2.

My elle suspicions reached their apex in Post 484 and Post 485. There were three suspicions: (1) playing it safe; (2) attempting to manipulate others' reads on her; and (3) defensive interaction with Ranger.

A.

In Post 505 I asked elle to directly respond to my suspicion-observations of her posts. She responded (and then some) in Post 513. My Post 553 reads fairly accurately.

B.

I recall making Post 553 and thinking that my suspicions were still pretty solid, but I wasn't entirely satisfied with my first two suspicions (the top half of Post 553) w/r/t elle playing it safe and attempting to manipulate others' reads on her. I don't know what it was that was making me have some doubts, but looking back on it now I think elle's response is pretty town: It's basically a big (shrug) because what else was she supposed to say? That said, I don't know if that was the actual basis for my semi-doubt, or if I'm projecting onto past-GC.

3.

Simultaneously with the above interaction, based on elle's Post 494, there was an offshoot in Post 507 and Post 514.

A.

This was related to my suspicions relating to elle's interaction with Ranger, and I thought that elle was specifically referring to Ranger being town if elle flipped town. This was weird for me because although I had thought Ranger would be more likely to be scum if elle flipped scum, I would think that elle-town's flip of town would show folks that Ranger's case was bunk - and therefore more likely to come from scum.

B.

This particular line of suspicion got caught in my craw, and I followed up in Post 557 and Post 570. And this is where the cracks really began. elle's Post 571 suggested that I was misunderstanding the things she was conveying, and snarky intro aside in Post 573, I was aping her response to make sure I understood it. And then it clicked two minutes later after rereading her Post 494 a few more times with elle's explanation in mind, with my reluctant eureka moment captured in Post 574.

C.

Post 574 deserves special mention because that is when I decided that my own misunderstanding of the basic communication elle was putting out into the thread was also probably affecting my other problems with elle's play. I wasn't convinced elle was town at this point, but I was convinced that my suspicions were less than adequate. For that reason, I voted for a player I did have suspicions of, and those suspicions had already been addressed but not assuaged: dave, in Post 575.

4.

So Page 26 is when my read really started to turn around.

A.

First there is Post 647, where elle claimed VT. I don't think the VT claim inandof itself says much one way or another, but it was the real sense of resigned frustration that came across. At this point, I was thinking elle could just be good at faking it, but it was a good show.

B.

The clincher for me at that time, however, was Post 656 and Post 658. Those posts come from frustrated town who is tired of being badgered and therefore, while sticking to her suspicions as they develop, thumbs her nose at her suspectors. It's not an angle I would think scum would ever jump to in the circumstances, as it made her look contradictory and preemptively defensive and resigned (as in, "whatever, here, have another reason to lynch me, I don't care").

C.

Post 689 and Post 691 also looked like they came from town, sticking to their-not-actually-good-but-what-do-you-want-its-D1 justification for narrowing a pool of suspects. But this was a minor contribution to the shift in my read.

D.

Post 693, Post 695, and Post 696 - though related to Post 689 and Post 691 in substance - constituted a different reason for me to think elle is town. I'm still unclear what, exactly elle is referring to, and I'm not entirely sure it's something that we can dive into. But the matter-of-factly manner in which the information was conveyed, and how of course that aligned with elle's not great D1 theory, and in any event it's beside the point - all of that just reads town.

And that's the rise and fall of my elle suspicions. Do tell, does this make me town?

Perhaps not immediately, but it's information from the horse's mouth instead of nothing.

[Titus]

And do you have concerns about the utter lack of info LR is giving ud Heartless?

[Titus]

VLA until weekend

[elleheathen]

vla until deadline?

...

[Titus]

Sorry. A trial went that I did not expect. Shit happens. My vla is in all games.

[elleheathen]

Yeah, I saw that you posted elsewhere, too.

Was just one of those things where I really start getting comfy with you as town and then saw that and was like RLY? lol

[Titus]

Not much I can do. Nature of the job. I still plan to be on nightly. We will see if I can though.