Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Heartless]

also calling bullshit on you forgetting it's an open setup
you've talked about who you thought was SK a couple times

[Heartless]

I've formulated an updated hypothesis and I have quite solid town reads on vettrock, Aneninen, and Wickedestjr, all of which are very unlikely to change in the near future.

The remaining playerlist is: killapenwin, BlueBloodedToffee, copper223, beastcharizard, Tean Samargo, and mastin2

tth and i are on the same page re: town reads she has there. i would add mastin.

the tean slot is prob the biggest question mark for me right now

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I don't particularly care whether you believe me or not.

I'm telling you I keep forgetting it's an open set up.

I'm waffling on Scum!Copper...so what?

[mastin2]

So you're probably scum with copper.

[Aneninen]

Plenty of other things.

(1) Vettrock. In the Newbie I met him long ago, he was a Tracker. He crumbed his PR on Day1 and he didn't post a crumb like that here. (I mean, A crumb, Not Essentially that easy to spot, Nor with such an Inconsistent text = ANENI) Despite of this, I think his claim is real, because it seemed to have noticed not only by Copper but also by Heartless. The only scenario he'd be scum in would be possible if both Heartless and Copper were scum with him. But, in this case, Heartless needn't have posted about Vettrock's claim at all, so, this is not too likely. In theory, Vettrock could have fake-hinted a Tracker, but in this case, Copper would have waited with outing him until his wagon would be bigger.

(2) Mastin. I don't know what to think. On one hand she's answered nothing to my case that could change my read on her. On the other hand, she's spent so much time and effort on me that it wouldn't make sense at all if she were scum. I mean, if she were scum and if she had spent the same amount of resources on building up a mislynch wagon, OMGUS-ing me or whatever (instead of on a player who's not even the most influent one in this game), she would have achieved more. Of course that would have only confirmed my scumread on her – but, she could have acquired a much bigger impact on everyone elses' reads. She still can be SK (she doesn't seem to fit my scumteam idea, see below) but I'm less confident about my reads on her than I used to be.

(3) There's something I should tell. I spotted something long ago that, I think, was a PR-hint and it wasn't Vettrock – it was someone else. I'm not telling anything more about this right now and I think it's obvious, why. If I'm right about that, (1) either there are 6 PRs in the game (2) or one of the claims is fake. If the latter one is true (and it's more likely – simply maths), the fake one must be Copper.

(4) BBT. I really hate his recent posts. In 1256 he posted a naked vote for Copper. In theory, I should be glad that he was voting for my scumread – in practice, that was terrible. I thought it was obvious that I wanted to

discuss

my Copper-read before wagoning him. My first thought was that I'm wrong about Copper and BBT is a scum who wants to get rid of a town-PR without standing up and providing a case against him. But, then a couple of things happened.
His 1259: a scumread on Mastin and Heartless, but he was still voting for Copper!
Copper's 1266 was very weird:

"100%, if you end up being town you also will get a ban request from me."

– it's either over-reacting or a "fake interaction. But, if it was an over-reaction, why didn't he give a same reaction on my case? It was me, after all, who launched the case against him (even if I'm not voting right now). He answered that I'm misrepresenting him (which is not true) and I should be lynched – but I wasn't amongst his scumreads later! So, why didn't he want to ban me because of my case?
But then, in 1273, BBT votes for Mastin! What if he's just jumped off the Copper-wagon before it gets too big? And Copper joins the Mastin-wagon three posts later. (He was voting for BBT before... but the BBT-wagon wasn't moving at all at that time.)
So, it seems that I've been wrong BBT and he must be scum – and it's also possible that both him and Copper are scums!
Also, Heartless examined BBT's reads on Copper and that too confirms this read. (I must have missed it because I was focusing mostly on Vettrock and Mastin.) Especially the "it's an awesome scum fake-claim... it's a very bad fake claim" part is scummy.

So.
Could we sort out the Copper-question? He's still my strongest scumread – but, if we decide not to lynch him, we should lynch BBT, I think.

Something else.
Meanwhile, we shouldn't ingore Beast. Even if I don't understand why his flip would be informative about Copper and Mastin, KillerPenguin posted an interesting summary about him in 1282.

[Heartless]

I don't particularly care whether you believe me or not.

I'm telling you I keep forgetting it's an open set up.

I'm waffling on Scum!Copper...so what?

and i'm telling YOU: bull. fucking. shit.

the waffling is unbelievable because the thought process is unbelievable.

the logic chain:
fakeclaiming ---> real claiming but scum
doesn't have anything legit to fill in the "--->"

the rest of your pushes are anemic and have no teeth. the anen read has PLOP sat there like a dried up dog turd but you're perfectly content taking potshots at him while bitching and moaning that no one is listening to you EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE ARE TELLING YOU WHY THEY'RE TOWNREADING HIM.

[copper223]

Back.

I'm responding to Copper now.

First of all, don't take it as a personal offence, but I simply don't believe you. I think your claim is fake, therefore you're scum.
– Massclaiming would help the scums more than the town. The scums would know all the PRs and they could choose the most dangerous PR to Nightkill, turn by turn. This would be especially bad in this particular game because (1) most probably there's an SK and (2) two PRs are already dead. The only advantage for the town would be that we'd be able to confirm some players. (However, see something else about this topic below!) BUT, this would come with two serious disadvantages: (1) some scums could perform a safe-looking fake-claim (and it would be hard to decide which claims are real and which are fake) and (2) if the scums are charismatic enough, they would be able to convince the town to lynch the

real

PR.

I don't take it personally if you are scum or if you are town and did your research (incorrectly), that comment to BBT was just because he openly stated he was basically randomly voting. I am telling you all that doesn't matter if we lynch incorrectly, the most dangerous PR in this setup is a tracker and we are still screwed if he comes out tomorrow with a check because there are an equal number of informed scum that can destroy most claims while the townies look skeptically on. Yes exactly, knowing my role and most likely Vettrock's,

any

other claim is likely fake, so there are no safe fakeclaims, anyone that claimed anything else other than VT I would have lynched. You make the point yourself but ignore it here.

– I'm not misrepresenting you at all. It's possible that I'm misinterpreting you and my scumread on you is wrong. So, instead of voting for you I asked everyone to discuss my reads. I've already expained: if your claim is real and I'm wrong, lynching you can be equal with performing

two

mislynchs.

That is not presenting a case, that is twisting what was said to make it look scummy, I don't like it, I don't understand what you are doing because I have you as more likely town than not but this doesn't align at all.

– You wrote that I had been responsible for outing Vettrock. Isn't that a misrepresenting from you? It's pretty obvious that I hadn't noticed Vettrock's hints before he claimed. You could have posted something like "I think I saw a PR-hint from someone" instead of outing Vettrock.
(As for Vettrock, I still need to examine whether his claim is real or not. My intuition says it

is

, but I want to be surer.)

I am not pushing a lynch on you, so if that is misrepping it's vastly less important, I think it's questionable but whatever, to me it was worth outing him so I did, I had no reason to do so as scum unless we are buddies.

– Also, there's something else. If your claim is real and you assume that the setup contains 4 PRs (it's five times more probable than the 6PRs version and because having an SK in the setup is very likely), your gameplay as a townie is very bad. Let me explain: if you're really a Vengeful and if you've spotted Vettrock's hints (and if his claim is real too), it's 80% that there are NO other PRs at all. What does that mean? Most probably NO townie would claim anything. (About all these claims I'll write something else in my next post, because there's something else that suggests me that Copper is faking.)

Clap clap, so lynch the first guy that claims a PR is the strategy, if nobody claims we have 2 confirmed PR's, if somebody claims another role I will try to lynch them, if someone cc's me I will also try to lynch them and if I lose I will shoot them when I die, that is far better than your strategy of lynching the vengeful.

[copper223]

Once again, I want a massclaim.

[vettrock]

Once again, I want a massclaim.

While I was against this before because I was fine with the hint rather that the outright claim for myself. I think the likelyhood of 6PRs is small. If there is another power role out there, it means copper is scum. If there is no powerrole, I would be forced to believe copper is telling the truth. If scum fake claims, we can lynch copper, and he will shoot the fake claimer. If the other claim was true, copper was scum and is lynched, and the other claim is conf-town Either way, we get one scum for one town. If no one claims, I think we have to believe copper.

[copper223]

Popcorn style I propose Mastin as the first.

[Wickedestjr]

I've fallen behind in RL and in this game. Will try my best to catch up, but the next few days are going to be very busy for me - it sucks.

I still like mass claim (have any counter arguments been made?). I like the idea of popcorn claiming.

I'd propose beast, Tean, or mastin as first. Don't really care which. But I noticed that Tean is getting replaced and it might be beneficial to have their replacement claim immediately - it would be hard for them to fake anything before reading the thread.

[beastcharizard]

Why not me?

p-edit:

Good plan, I propose me first too.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

How do we know Copper is scum if there is another PR?

I like how quickly Anen reversed his read on me.

[Aneninen]

This will be a short answer because I need to leave soon.

Copper.
As for BBT, I see your point.
As for the massclaim. I've never suggested "auto-lynching" you, I've suggested a discussion about you, and I've done so because of your claim.
I still have a big problem with the massclaim. I haven't posted and don't post about it because if I did so, it would only help the scums. Since most of the players seem to agree with the massclaim, I'll explain my issues after it has happened. Let's hope that they haven't made a plan for this situation.

BBT. It's quite obvious that if a player does something scummy, the reads on him/her changes quickly. And it's not only me, whose reads has been changed. New pieces of information = changing reads.

[copper223]

Massclaim first, discuss the setup later.

[mastin2]

I'm against massclaim; it'd take every read I trust unanimously overriding me (and/or it being well underway with most players already claimed) before I'd support.
Late, so no explanation, but might give one tomorrow.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'm going to try and devote some time to this game tonight and sort my reads out.

I apologize for my shit play of late.

/phoneposting

[killapenwin]

@vettrock I see you have been revealed as 1-shot tracker, but I don't think I saw who you investigated, who did you track and why?

[copper223]

@Beast
You are scummy enough I am fine with you claiming second/third, I like Wicked's suggestion to reaction test the replacement and have him claim first.

@Killa
What is the purpose of that question, you don't believe he is 1-shot?

@Mastin
you are so scummy I don't even know, no way that you get to claim later on, it's either straight away or lynch as far as I am concerned.

[killapenwin]

Copper, I have my reasons and would like for vet to answer

[vettrock]

Copper, I have my reasons and would like for vet to answer

I did not track last night, I thought I would be better tonight when there is less to pick from. Likely not the best choice In hindsight.

[copper223]

@Killa
That was the answer I was expexcting, so why did you want to know?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'm ready to shake this game up. Be ready for it at the end of this post.

1169 - Given your current read on me Anen, it's very interesting that you called me 'obv-town' in this post solely because I noticed the same thing you did.

1172 - Mastin, I fucking hate how you're so sure Anen is town yet you can't give a single fucking reason for it.

1178 - This is weak reasoning from Copper for his Dave hammer. Like, there is nothing wrong with the thought process, it just doesn't feel genuine to me. He's implying that if it hadn't been for him that we would have NL'ed. Clearly, somebody else would have hammered when the time come.

1180 - Whilst I feel most of your post regarding Mastin is about her playstyle, I actually find that I agree with a lot of what you're saying. I'm also sick of reading Mastin's self meta; given how proud she is of her scum play, I would imagine she manipulates her meta quite a lot. So, using meta to defend herself/pursue reads is just weak as fuck.

I also had a thought about this; it would be quite clever for Scum!Mastin to leave Anti alive solely for the reason of 'Hey Anti, you know I'm not scum because I totally would have killed you by now.' Especially if she thought Anti might bring up the point himself as a reason for Town!Mastin (as it turns out, he didn't, and Mastin had to bring it up herself).

1194 - What a horrible post from BC. Seriously, can we lynch this guy?

Heartless, are you town-reading BC?

Couple more thoughts; if Anen is town both Heartless & Mastin are probably scum. If Anen is scum, Heartless could be scum and Mastin is most likely town.

Also, I claim Town Hider.

[copper223]

@BBT
Who do you claim to have hidden behind yesterday?

@All
Currently one of the claims is 100% a lie, because we would not be in an SK setup.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I have just read my role PM and was reminded of something.

If I hide behind someone and I don't die...they are confirmed town. I'm such a fucking idiot.

I hid behind Killa last night. Killa is conf town.