Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[copper223]

Why did you choose Killa?

[Heartless]

if i wasn't for a massclaim before i am now. 3 claimed prs already we might as well get the lettering straight / see if all the claims can fit together or not and not give scum more time to formulate fakeclaims or ride on fakeclaims if one of the claimed prs is scum already

[Heartless]

popcorn, starting w/ beast

[BlueBloodedToffee]

1205 - Good post from Mastin.

But that still leaves me with a bit of a large pile: killa, copper, BBT, Tean, and vettock. If you can drop your scumread on me, we can sort this shit out. I actually think that we're fairly synergetic players. At least when we have the same alignment. So if you can trust me on me being town, we can work together to get something coherent together.

Your team is now Copper/Tean/Vettrock.

I could absolutely see that scum-team.

I'm back in this game. Killa is town, Mastin is town & so is Wicked (still outside chance of being SK). I'm actually liking Anen's recent posts, he can be town as well. I need more time for Heartless because I think I was town-reading them just because I like Anti & TTH, which obviously doesn't make them town.

I like Copper & Vettrock for scum. By PoE Tean would be scum and their recent play would absolutely support this given their dramatic change from D1 where they were a big town-read for me. BC for SK.

TL;DR - Copper & Vettrock are scum. Tean is probably scum (if not Tean, Heartless) and BC for SK.

PEdit - I chose Killa because I felt good they were town but not town enough that they would get killed and thus we would both die.

[copper223]

@BBT
Are you sure you are back in this game?

If both Vettrock, who is obv. town and 1-shot tracker by the way, and I are scum, we would currently be in another setup without the SK.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I really don't know anything about this set-up.

I don't care much for it either.

You & Vettrock are scum.

[Heartless]

ok, setup

7 letters, there's almost certainly an sk here so probably odd number of t's

flips: tracker, jk
claims: 1-shot tracker, hider, vengeful

flips: IPXXXXX
claims: IIPHKXX

not a lot of t's in the claimed scenario

someone better than me at math, what's the probability of 2 or fewer t's?

[copper223]

22.6%

[copper223]

But most of it is in the T=2, T =1 or 0 is only 6.25% and the setup doesn't support T=2.

[copper223]

VOTE: BBT

[copper223]

If Vettrock fake claimed good on him, he had it setup the moment Eyestott claimed, all his reads make sense based on someone that knows Eyestott is town and a tracker, for instance his scumread of me makes perfect sense.

BBT said he was going to go back into hiding after whining about nobody wanting to help him kill Aneninen, but other than that I don't see as much and he fucked up enough in the latter part of today that a 1 for 1 sack if he is lucky may be the best strategy available for him.

If someone else claims I'll think about it, otherwise either lynch me or lynch BBT.

[copper223]

It is true however that % marginally supports BBT over Vettrock, there's a 37% of a hider being part of the game and only a 21% chance of there being a second tracker.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Wow, what a shit vote.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I have also thought of other potential motivations behind it but I'm going to keep them

hidden

for now.

Might be the first time I've ever crumbed,

[copper223]

If that's the case, pot meet kettle, mr I am not willing to consider the setup and will just scumread "both" the other PR's.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Scum can't have a hider alive to have the chance of confirming another person as town.

Watch my wagon.

PEdit - I don't give a fuck about set-up.

Regardless of claims, you and Vettrock are fucking scummy.

[copper223]

Again pot meet kettle, if you are town you fucked up today and your claim now is shit because of it, you can't even read your PM properly if that's the case.

[copper223]

I'm tempted to just go off of % since this game my reads mean nothing, I will re-read both ISO before tomorrow, I want to her what Killapen wanted to say about Vettrock, it looked like he was also softing something.

UNVOTE:

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Yeah, my recent play was shit. I'm not denying that, it shouldn't (read: doesn't) negate the rest of my play which I don't think has been bad.

I read my PM. I forgot the conditions it come with.

[Heartless]

22.6%

what's the probability of 1 t?

[Heartless]

is it 5.47%?

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 2.5

killapenwin (0) -
BlueBloodedToffee (1) - Heartless
Heartless (1) - beastcharizard
copper223 (1) - mastin2
vettrock (0) -
Aneninen (0) -
Wickedestjr (0) -
beastcharizard (2) - killapenwin, Wickedestjr
Tean Samargo (0) -
mastin2 (2) - vettrock, BlueBloodedToffee

Not Voting: Tean Samargo, Aneninen, copper223

With 10 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is Tuesday, February 3rd at 10:30 pm PST which is in (expired on 2015-02-03 22:30:00)

[copper223]

is it 5.47%?

Correct.

[Heartless]

uhhhhhhh, yeah let's do that massclaim

[killapenwin]

Err ok more claims.. it is late so I am not going to crunch the numbers or go into too much detail right now but as it stands: Vettrock has been outted as a 1-shot tracker but has not tracked anyone so can not be confirmed. Copper we won't know you are vengeful till you are flipped. I suspect scum will want to target you two tonight so I am not planning to vote either of you today.

Wicked I read as town and Anen I generally get good vibes from so probably town, too.

BBT is a bit of a wild card for me, the defending of Tean early on still grates on me a little though his play generally has been townish. Similar to claiming vengeful, claiming hider would be an easy way for an SK to survive an extra day so who dies night 2 out of copper/bbt/vettrock could be interesting. I don't wish to risk killing a hider so I won't be voting bbt today either.

Heartless has had some good posts/points and there is evidence of scumhunting so I think they are town and not worth a vote today.

Mastin - the over the top defending of beastcharizard is questionable, the participation in the dave/eyestott wagons is questionable, their reads hardly ever backed with evidence is questionable, the over use and reliance of meta/self-meta and '

trust me

' in a game based on deception is again questionable. I'm not getting good vibes on Mastin and believe she may be scum.

Tean has been so inactive that I really doubt that the slot is town or a PR so I could lynch today without feeling too bad about it.

BeastCharizard I have posted my reasons before but I think he is scum, many people are either skating over the issue of his inactivity or outright ignoring it, there is momentum for a lynch on him today and I think the lack of traction on it is scum not wanting to bus him out.

If BC flips scum I would put him in a team with copper and mastin
If Tean flips scum I would put him with BBT,

so Tean/BC would be my targets of choice for todays lynch with the result and night kills influencing the day lynches tomorrow.