Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Heartless]

:\

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Can someone explain to me what Titus' claim means for set-up spec?

[Aneninen]

Maybe, Heartless, maybe not. Read what I posted in my "off".

Titus. I'll write a summary as soon as I have time (I'm cleaning up the flat meanwhile) and if you accept it from me. (My slot is mostly townread. Other townread slots are KillaPenguin, Wicked and maybe Vettrock – the latter one is under constant discussion.)

________

post-edit.

...WHAAAAAAAAT?????!!!!!

UNVOTE:

I need to reconsider everything.
No, BBT. I can't explain it. But I need to go on with the cleaning-up.

[Heartless]

ok, setup

7 letters, there's almost certainly an sk here so probably odd number of t's

flips: tracker, jk
claims: 1-shot tracker, hider, vengeful

flips: IPXXXXX
claims: IIPHKXX

not a lot of t's in the claimed scenario

someone better than me at math, what's the probability of 2 or fewer t's?

Updated:

Flips: Tracker, Jailkeeper
Claims: 1-shot tracker, Hider, Vengeful, Vigilante

Flips: IPXXXXX
Claims: IIPHKKT

Well it seems we have a slight problem here.

VOTE: Titus

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Can someone explain better than Heartless just did?

[Heartless]

Can someone explain to me what Titus' claim means for set-up spec?

There's a few problems:

*

With the claimed setup, there should be three kills at play.

*

Optimal play for Tean night 1 as a vigilante would have been to shoot copper, as already discussed.

*

The number of claimed T's has an approximately 5% chance of occurring.

The "missing" kill on Night 1 could be explained by overlapping kills or a failed kill, but the other probabilistic evidence is stacked against that.

[Heartless]

Hold on, I just saw something. UNVOTE:

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 2.8

killapenwin (0) -
BlueBloodedToffee (0) -
Heartless (1) - beastcharizard
copper223 (3) - mastin2, vettrock, BlueBloodedToffee
vettrock (0) -
Aneninen (0) -
Wickedestjr (0) -
beastcharizard (2) - killapenwin, Wickedestjr
Titus (0) -
mastin2 (0) -

Not Voting: Titus, copper223, Aneninen, Heartless

With 10 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

Deadline is suspended pending resolution of the copper replacement.

[Titus]

I am doing math now.

[Heartless]

Oh, I'm stupid.

Titus is clear.

[Heartless]

is she...?

no, i think you had it right tth
._.

[beastcharizard]

How is Titus clear?

[Heartless]

Claims: IIPHKKT

ok

well, first off:


there's fake pr claims

...

damn, now

i'm

fucking my own mind w/ math

[beastcharizard]

The "missing" kill on Night 1 could be explained by overlapping kills or a failed kill, but the other probabilistic evidence is stacked against that.

You also have the bus driver in the game which could also explain it or the roleblock.

[Titus]

We have known

T and P. I am K. Vengeful is another K. Hider is H. Oneshot tracker is T.

We have (if all PRs are telling the truth), IIPKKH.

That leaves 1 T left. Which leaves an sk.

To roll at least many PRs means only one could come back vt. There are one hundred twenty eight different PR to VT combos alone.

But there are 7 different methods to get this number of PRs.

So the odds a PR is not lying are

7/128.

[Titus]

Can y'all put the claims in an easy place fot me?

[beastcharizard]

Yeah hold on.

[Heartless]

How is Titus clear?

It's due to the number of T's. An even number of T's translates to a single scum faction. An odd number of T's translates to two scum "factions", in which we would see three kills per night assuming Titus is telling the truth.

At first I thought, "If Titus was a faker, that would mean there are an even number of T's, which produces a paradox. There are no SKs at two T's and the mafia can't just pull two kills out of their ass. Therefore Titus must be town." Then I remembered that there were a bunch of other claims at play. :S

This will take some time to parse.

[beastcharizard]

Cooper: Vengeful
BBT: Hide
Vettrock: 1-shot Tracker
Beast: VT
Mastin: VT
Heartless: VT
Anen: VT
Killa: VT
Wicked: VT
Titus: Vigilante

[beastcharizard]

So in theory there isn't a SK here. which means 1 PR is still lying.

[beastcharizard]

I think I found a vig crumb from Tean as well.

[Heartless]

Flips: Tracker, Jailkeeper
Claims: 1-shot tracker, Hider, Vengeful, Vigilante

flips
dave: vt
eyestott: tracker
dodgy: jailkeeper

claims
vettrock: 1-shot tracker
bbt: hider
copper's slot: vengeful
titus: vig
beast: vt
mastin: vt
heartless: vt
anen: vt
wicked: vt
killa: vt

[beastcharizard]

A haiku with love:

I don't like penguins.
Go back to Antarctica.

Vote: killapenwin

The poem spells out Vig if you rearrange the letters.

[Titus]

So basically, we have proven that two PRs must be lying in order for me to be scum. Me plus someone else.

[Titus]

Who did BBThide behind N1?