Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[beastcharizard]

I care more about the last thing i said in that post.

[Titus]

VOTE: Beastcharizard

If scum shoot who BBT hides behind, I hit not scum, sk (assuming existance) hits town...

That's 4 dead townies before counting today's lynch.

6 alive with 3 scum... ummm no thanks.

[Heartless]

No lynching actually not be a bad idea.

[Heartless]

Mod: Would a hider know if he is roleblocked?

[Heartless]

An idea would be to have BBT hide behind Me or Heartless. I want to be cleared and I think Heartless is scum so they are both good plays. It also makes scum guess who to shoot if BBT is actually a Hider.

This is problematic because 1) there's no way to verify that BBT actually hid and 2) even if BBT is hiding there's the possibility of a roleblock or bus drive to interfere and give misleading results.

[Heartless]

Actually what if BBT hides behind Copper slot? If just BBT ends up dead then copper is scum. If just Copper is dead then BBT is lying. If both are dead then it is the same thing as what a lynch today would have done. If they are both alive then copper should be confirmed town. We would have to no lynch to make sure we aren't walking right into LYLO or MYLO though from my quick math. Titus could shoot anyone they wanted and Vettrock should someone random.

Opinions?

Just a second, let me get Anti, because that actually sounds like a good strategy.

[Aneninen]

Okay, let's start it over. Unfortunately, my 1468 and 1524 are to be ignored.

Still, we need a theory about the setup, so let's use Ockham's Razor and let's assume that the version which needs the least pieces os assumption is correct (until there are contradicting incoming data).

Facts.

(1) The possible setups are:

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)
TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT
T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer
0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

(2) Because of the Setup the Mafia team knew pregame whether there are 5–7 Ts, 3–4 Ts or 0–2 Ts. (Check out the scum-PRs.)

(3) The known flips are: I, P (and a T)
The known claims are: T, H, K, K
There were two Nightkills.

Possibilities

(1) TTTTTTT and TTTTTT are

impossible

because of the flips.

(2) TTTTT is also

impossible

. For that, there would be two Mafia and a SK. If all of them had been faking that would be only 3 claims and we have 4. We should rule out the possibility of a VT faking a PR.

(3) TTTT is

possible

but

only if

three claims are fake. Since there's no SK in this setup, Titus's claim must be real. So, TTTT is possible only if BBT, Copper and Vettrock are lying. The possibility of this Setup is 27.3%.
Though it contains too much assumptions, 3 fake-claims,

we can't ignore this case entirely because of its realtively high possibility

. (Note the following too: a triple fake-claim could be useful for the Mafia team since it's not too likely that the town would ever think

that

amount of fake-claims.)

(4) TTT (the probability of this Setup is also 27.3%) is

possible if

– (4.1) Titus is faking and he's SK

and

one of the other claims is fake too (there's exactly one Mafia amongst Copper, BBT and Vettrock)
– (4.2) Titus is telling the truth

and

one of the Nightkills failed/doubled (see below!)

and

two of the other claims are fake (two scums amongst Copper, BBT and Vettrock, either Mafia or SK)
– (4.3) Titus is faking and he's Mafia

and

one of the Nightkills failed/doubled

and

one of the other claims is fake too (there's exactly one Mafia amongst Copper, BBT and Vettrock, either Mafia or SK)
Summary: for TTT we must assume a missing kill, an SK and two fake claims. In theory, there are a lot of assumptions in these cases, but because of the high amount of the possibilities and because of the high probability of the setup itself,

we mustn't ignore this case

.

(5) TT (the probability of this Setup is 16.4%) is

possible if

Titus's claim is real

and

one of the other claims is fake (there's exactly one Mafia amongst Copper, BBT and Vettrock). Of course there's no SK in this Setup. Note that this Setup is not possible if Titus is faking because in that case there couldn't have been a second Nightkill.

This seems to be the most probable case

, it's probability (16.4%) is acceptable as well.

(6) T (the probability of this Setup is 5.5%) is

possible

if all the claims are real

and

one of the Nightkills failed/doubled.
Here we need only two assumptions, but because the probability of this setup is very low,

we shouldn't think that this is the case, although we mustn't ignore it completely

.

(7) 0T is

impossible

in practice. The chance would be 0.8% and we should assume a town-PR claiming VT.

There's something more for (5): it's very likely that

one

scum is faking a PR. It's not entirely impossible that

two

of them are faking (case (4), and two fake-claims seem to be beneficial as well). It'd be odd if every Mafia were faking (although it might be beneficial, but maybe risky as well?) and in this situation it would also be odd if none of them were faking (it had been clear for a while that a massclaim was coming; they should have divided themselves between the PR and the VT-pool).

The possible cases of a missing Nightkill:
– Doubling (two kills went for the same slot, maybe on EyeStott, since that seems to have been a "logical kill")
– Jailkeeping (unfortunately we have no information about the target)
– one of the shots went for BBT (assuming his claim is real)
– the Mafia targetted the SK who's Bulletproof (assuming there's an SK, in this case the Mafia knows who the SK is)

_______

Summary. Until we know more facts,

we should think that the setup is IPK??TT

; 3 Mafia, exactly one of the claims is fake (any of them but Titus!), no SK, because we need to make the least amount of assumptions for this version.
We mustn't lynch Titus Today, regardless of our reads on that slot.

Notice: it's taken some time for me to write this post so I haven't read the thread meanwhile.

[Heartless]

If scum shoot who BBT hides behind, I hit not scum, sk (assuming existance) hits town...

Well then don't shoot, Titus.
And if there's a separate SK, then it's in their best interest to not shoot. They're not immune from being endgamed.

To me, what beast's plan does is give town the last shot instead of scum while giving the same set of flips and information. At least, that's my first impression.

[Heartless]

uhhhhh...........

there's still the bus driver / roleblocker issue w/ directing the claimed hider. and it all falls to hell in a handbasket if bbt is really scum.

[Titus]

Why is 5 the most probable case when 4 has a higher statisicsl chance?

[Heartless]

bbt --> copper
vettrock --> bbt

how about that?

[beastcharizard]

If they have the busdriver then BBT is dead tonight anyway. With that we have Vettrock follow BBT to see where they go. The only way to stop the plan entirely is for scum to have both the bus driver and roleblocker left.

[beastcharizard]

Heartless can be town now. Which totally fucks up my reads.

[Heartless]

bbt --> copper
vettrock --> bbt

how about that?

that... actually doesn't solve anything

/fart

[beastcharizard]

It doesn't solve anything if they have the roleblock and the busdriver. While that is a chance it is a chance we have to take. Lets say it doesn't work out then at most tonight there will be two kills assuming SK/Vig don't kill. With the no lynch we still have a shot after tonight.

VOTE: No Lynch

[beastcharizard]

Also, Titus get your vote off me because it is a dumb vote. I am being incredibly towny here.

[Aneninen]

Why is 5 the most probable case when 4 has a higher statisicsl chance?

Ockham's Razor. I had to assume much less things for that Setup.

Heartless: shyt, I totally ignored the scum-PRs. Do you think that changes the possibilities?

[Heartless]

It doesn't solve anything if they have the roleblock and the busdriver. While that is a chance it is a chance we have to take. Lets say it doesn't work out then at most tonight there will be two kills assuming SK/Vig don't kill. With the no lynch we still have a shot after tonight.

there's a TON of assumptions here, and without knowing about the roleblock/bus drive, hider "results" are floating in a speculative bowl full of diarrhea

i don't see what no lynch gets us here... what was tth talking about..?

[Aneninen]

And yes, I'm reading the game soon as soon as I've finished the laundry.

[Heartless]

here's occam's razor for ya':

at least one of the pr claims are full of shit. it's bbt because the claim is flimsier than a portapotty.

[beastcharizard]

If we no lynch we should guarantee that we are not in LYLO tomorrow. Titus doesn't shoot anyone and we go through with the Vettrock->BBT->Copper plan to see if we can gain any information. Busdriver will either redirect the Hider to scum, if not already on scum, or redirect Vettrock to someone who did nothing. Roleblock will just stop Vettrock or BBT.

At most we should have two kills tonight if they busdrive BBT to a scum person if BBT is even a Hider.

[Heartless]

i mean... seriously

hider is such an innocuous thing to crumb early on (just put "hide" "hidden" some permutation of that in a post)
and bbt didn't do it

[Titus]

That sounds primed to mislynch BBT is bus acted already...

[Heartless]

If we no lynch we should guarantee that we are not in LYLO tomorrow. Titus doesn't shoot anyone and we go through with the Vettrock->BBT->Copper plan to see if we can gain any information. Busdriver will either redirect the Hider to scum, if not already on scum, or redirect Vettrock to someone who did nothing. Roleblock will just stop Vettrock or BBT.

At most we should have two kills tonight if they busdrive BBT to a scum person if BBT is even a Hider.

this plan is fucked if vettrock is scum

[Heartless]

the "breaking strategies" are all going to follow our reads anyway. what the fuck are people doing?