Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[beastcharizard]

Even if we don't use a strategy, no lynch is still what we should do in my opinion.

[Titus]

Agreed. There is no breaking setup here.

Even my no action could hurt us if scum bussed me with the mafia kill.

[Titus]

I REALLY WANT TO SHOOT BEAST!

[Heartless]

If we no lynch we should guarantee that we are not in LYLO tomorrow. Titus doesn't shoot anyone and we go through with the Vettrock->BBT->Copper plan to see if we can gain any information. Busdriver will either redirect the Hider to scum, if not already on scum, or redirect Vettrock to someone who did nothing. Roleblock will just stop Vettrock or BBT.

At most we should have two kills tonight if they busdrive BBT to a scum person if BBT is even a Hider.

this plan is fucked if vettrock is scum

AHAHKJSLDAJFLK;DSAJFK;LDSA;LKFDSALKF;JD;LKSAJF;LKDSAJFDSA

OK

BEAST

if you operate from the assumption that >one of bbt/copper is scum<
it's better to lynch today because then there'll be the flip / undeniable certainty there if we lynch bbt first.
if copper, flips scum, then... scum flip. ok
if copper is town and shoots bbt, then... scum flip. also ok.

the only thing would be if you thought vettrock was scum and bbt/copper were town. in which case THE PLAN YOU PUT OUT THERE IS DOOMED ANYWAY BECAUSE WE CAN'T TRUST VETTROCK'S RESULT

what are you doing, beast?

[Heartless]

THE PLAN YOU PUT OUT THERE IS DOOMED ANYWAY BECAUSE WE CAN'T TRUST VETTROCK'S RESULT

Our universe is doomed!

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

[Heartless]

Sorry, Anti, couldn't resist.

[beastcharizard]

We don't have to do the plan. Also, I am trying to win the damn game. What are you doing?

Titus, this is the first time I am town reading you please don't fuck it up.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

i mean... seriously

hider is such an innocuous thing to crumb early on (just put "hide" "hidden" some permutation of that in a post)
and bbt didn't do it

I did.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

92 - Dodgy, I'm glad you picked up on this (Eyestott's buddying) because I was thinking the exact same thing. Certainly worth keeping an eye on. I have also thought of other potential motivations behind it but I'm going to keep them

hidden

for now.

[Heartless]

all the way on page 12?

/fart

nope

[killapenwin]

Not fully caught up yet but what kind of derp thinking is bbt hiding behind copper? What happens when scum target copper? Oh right, we lose hider and the vengeful killer, plus with the likelihood of a another kill that's 3 town deaths in 1 night.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Yeah, you know. Given I had hardly been playing up to that point.

[vettrock]

i mean... seriously

hider is such an innocuous thing to crumb early on (just put "hide" "hidden" some permutation of that in a post)
and bbt didn't do it

I have also thought of other potential motivations behind it but I'm going to keep them

hidden

for now.

Might be the first time I've ever crumbed,

BBT claimed a crumb.

The titus claim doesn't really change that one of copper, BBT or me has to be scum. It is changing a T for a K.
Assuming Titus is town:
If copper is scum we have:
IIPKHTT. The K is titus, and there is no serial killer.

If BBT is scum, we have:
IIPKKTT Titus and copper are the two K's, and there is no serial killer.


If Titus is lying, he is either the serial killer, or someone else is and he is scum:
If copper is scum, we have:
IIPHTTT and we have a serial killer.
If BBT is scum we have:
IIPKTTT and we have a serial killer.

From my view this means one of copper and BBT is scum. If we lynch copper's slot, and he shoots BBT, we have one dead scum. If copper is scum, we have one dead scum.


This is the best plan from my view.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

In fact, I would say 293 was my first serious contribution.

[beastcharizard]

Not fully caught up yet but what kind of derp thinking is bbt hiding behind copper? What happens when scum target copper? Oh right, we lose hider and the vengeful killer, plus with the likelihood of a another kill that's 3 town deaths in 1 night.

We would be no lynching today and then we would have 3 total deaths anyway. Not to mention that if Titus is actually a Vig then those would be the only 2 kills of the night meaning over all we kept 1 extra person alive.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Let's lynch Copper.

[beastcharizard]

Does hider die if they hide behind a Serial Killer?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Yeah, I do.

[Titus]

Beast why are you townreading me?

[vettrock]

I don't see any permutations where one of copper and BBT are not scum.

To answer Titus questions about me not tracking. I did think my hints were probably a little more subtle than they actually turned out to be, but there were at least some people that didn't see them. I did not expect to be called out, so that everyone one knew. I was generally lacking any good scum reads at the end of D1, so I assumed my chances would be better D2 assuming I was still alive.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Let's lynch Copper

[Titus]

Can I shoot if one of Cooper/BBT is scum?

[Aneninen]

Catching-up.

Titus, 1573 – check my later long post for answers! 1576 – that's true. I don't think Penguin is scum anyway.
1580 – shooting Dodgy was a terrible idea... although, as far as I remember, I also thought that he might be scum, because of his fight with Eyestott (who claimed on Day1). Sorry if my memories are wrong, that happened so long ago. Also, Copper was scumreading BBT (due to the "I'm not faking so he must be faking" logic) and later me (? – I'm unsure whether he really meant it. He was upset because he was my main suspect and I voted for him. I had posted a lot about Copper and his possible scum partners before you claimed. Now my former theory doesn't seem to be too probable.)

Beast, 1596 – your ideas are wrong. Vettrock's claim seems to be real, although someone still should point out where he claimed 1-shot. (If it turns out there have been no 1-shot claim, I'll be confident about this read.) We shouldn't talk about BBT's forthcoming Night Action at all (if his claim is real). That would only give ideas to the scums whether he's worth lynching/Nightkilling or not.

Heartless, 1599 –

"Should we mislynch today, Titus should not shoot tonight because if she misfires it's a possible scum win. This holds true regardless of if she's an SK or vig."

– this is true, unless someone does something blatantly scummy (or someone seems to be obv-scum after the mislynch, eg. a derphammer).

Heartless, Beast, etc. – have you read my 1606? It's likely that we don't have an SK at all!

Beast 1614, No Lynch is bad, in my opinion. We should thy to lynch a scum instead of waiting for them for shooting each other (which won't work if there's no SK) or for Titus guessing a scum correctly (and what if they simply Nightkill Titus?!) As for your 1620 and nearby: who's the bus-driver of your team then?

BBT, 1633 – ugh, was that a crumb? Because using a single word doesn't seem to be a claim for me. Your claim may or may not be real but it's clear that you have no idea how to crumb.
Everyone: do you have any experience about BBT having a town-PR in another game?

Vettrock, 1637 – you should read my 1606 too (if you haven't done so yet). What's your opinion?

Titus, 1646 –

"Can I shoot if one of Cooper/BBT is scum?"

I haven't done the math but I think you should. Maybe you could decide whom to shoot after the flip (so keep your choice in secret.)

Also, everyone, remember: until the Copper-slot is filled we shouldn't lynch anyone.

________

Summary.
I'm trying to re-read everything because it seems that my former theories were flawed.

Right now I know that there players mustn't get lynched Today:

KillaPenguin – he's town according to my reads and if BBT's claim is true, he's conf-town.
Titus – according to my 1606 that would be a terrible move. Also, his posts don't seem to be scummy.
Wicked – I can see nothing scummy here.

So, maybe I should re-start everything with this: either BBT or Copper is to be lynched. According to most of the possible scenarios, one of them is lying.
But what if Vettrock's scum? In theory, if we lynched Copper, he Vengekilled BBT and both flipped town, Titus could still Vig-kill Vettrock... but in this case we'd lose 2 townies, 1 scum and the scum kills another town and that's 6:2 for Tomorrow. Assuming there's no SK. Assuming it's not a T-setup. I think this plan is too risky and it contains too many "if"-s.

Also, Wicked and Mastin has posted nothing since Copper left and Titus arrived. I want to see some posts from them as well.

[beastcharizard]

Can I shoot if one of Cooper/BBT is scum?

I wouldn't see why not.

Also, you aren't screaming scum to me from my gut so you must be town. Even though i am paranoid I read you backwords.

[killapenwin]

Not fully caught up yet but what kind of derp thinking is bbt hiding behind copper? What happens when scum target copper? Oh right, we lose hider and the vengeful killer, plus with the likelihood of a another kill that's 3 town deaths in 1 night.

We would be no lynching today and then we would have 3 total deaths anyway. Not to mention that if Titus is actually a Vig then those would be the only 2 kills of the night meaning over all we kept 1 extra person alive.

That is still on the back of quite a lot of assumptions, I'd rather not forfeit towns only sure way of killing scum.