Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I wish I could somehow prove I'm town so we could lynch Copper.

[Titus]

Well then why not volunteer to be shot if Cooper flips town?

[beastcharizard]

Not fully caught up yet but what kind of derp thinking is bbt hiding behind copper? What happens when scum target copper? Oh right, we lose hider and the vengeful killer, plus with the likelihood of a another kill that's 3 town deaths in 1 night.

We would be no lynching today and then we would have 3 total deaths anyway. Not to mention that if Titus is actually a Vig then those would be the only 2 kills of the night meaning over all we kept 1 extra person alive.

That is still on the back of quite a lot of assumptions, I'd rather not forfeit towns only sure way of killing scum.

If we are going to do any plan I think we should no lynch. Otherwise we should lynch someone.

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 2.9

killapenwin (0) -
BlueBloodedToffee (1) - Heartless
Heartless (0) -
copper223 (3) - mastin2, vettrock, BlueBloodedToffee
vettrock (0) -
Aneninen (0) -
Wickedestjr (0) -
beastcharizard (3) - killapenwin, Wickedestjr, Titus
Titus (0) -
mastin2 (0) -

No Lynch (1) - beastcharizard

Not Voting: copper223, Aneninen

With 10 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

Deadline is suspended pending resolution of the copper replacement.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Well then why not volunteer to be shot if Cooper flips town?

Because I'm town and that would be dumb?

[mastin2]

Mastin, Wicked and Vettrock; look at this VC and tell me what you think.

Well it assumes you're town and you put Heartless in red when they're conftown as far as I'm concerned, but otherwise, legit.

Now it doesn't exactly tell you much other than that Anen is more town than Anen already was, at least by itself, but it DOES make for fair speculation that dave's wagon formed to counteract the copper wagon.

(Ergo, copper's scum.)

[mastin2]

Should I end the day?

That he didn't = scum hoping beyond hope not to get lynched, rather than town who knows that they can shoot. (And depending on the mod, may have access to twilight-talk after the lynch. Not exactly sure on that one, but some mods have it.)

[mastin2]

i seriously hope it isn't mastin b/c tth is going to kill me...

Not me. Swear, I'm not scum.

(...Not that saying that means much, but it's true; I'm not. )

[mastin2]

as sk we shot at ppl we scum read.

Just for the record, as a serial killer, my policy is to play 100% as if a town vig. (The way I figure it, SK is just town. I kinda consider drawing SK to be a massive "screw you!" from the mod, so I give a screw-you right back by being as pro-town as possible. Also applies to third party like lynchers and whatnot, but I digress.)
...And my current policy as a town vig is to never, ever, EVER shoot because vigging

sucks

.
As there was a second kill last night and no vig claim, that means it's a serial killer...who DID kill. Which I would not.

There's also the bundle-load of play-based reasons I'm not groupscum, too, among them being that I'd have shot Heartless 100%, and if not Heartless, would have shot...oh, I dunno, who was I strongly townreading at the time, copper? Probably copper, then. Who I

wouldn't

shoot is mislynch-bait dodgy, or personal-scumread eyestott.

Dig up a single game of mine where I was scum.
And I nightkilled a player I was scumreading.

I'll be impressed, 'cause I sure as hell can't remember any.

[mastin2]

Town Vig. Shot dodgy.

Right-o. Serial killer.

[mastin2]

So in theory there isn't a SK here. which means 1 PR is still lying.

Possible.

Titus is either a vig or a serial killer; there's no doubt in that. In either case, though, she's not groupscum, so shouldn't be a focus I don't think.

[mastin2]

So who did Dodgy jail?

I dunno, we could always ask eyestott and hope that he tracked dodgy!

(Titus, sometimes you can be a real derp. )

[Titus]

I am asking if ppl saw crumbs. Me blind 2 crumbs. U should lrn that.

[mastin2]

Let's lynch Copper

You'll note my vote hasn't moved.

Also, justsayin', while I do agree there's probably some sort of breaking strategy somewhere...the game's gonna be so much simpler if you rely on at least some basic scumhunting skills and not pure number crunching.

...In which case?

...Lynch copper. Every other player I can feasibly (albeit in many cases to varying degrees of probabilities) see as town right now.
In no scenario do I see copper as town.
And even if he is, then him shooting BBT is as mentioned a surefire win, fairly certain.

[Heartless]

I am asking if ppl saw crumbs. Me blind 2 crumbs. U should lrn that.

titus = mollie alt?

/mind blown

[Titus]

I am flattered tth.

[vettrock]

I am asking if ppl saw crumbs. Me blind 2 crumbs. U should lrn that.

I couldn't find any crumbs from dodgy, other than one that could have been mistaken for a cop crumb. Nothing about who he would have jailkept.

[Wickedestjr]

Unvote.

I voted copper, but I guess I forgot to put it on its own line again. Given that a lot has happened today, I need to (fully) catch up and think about everything.

Yes you did, in post 1414. I missed it. Fortunately it doesn't change anything, even with that vote counted copper was never hammered.

Day 2 continues. Deadline still frozen until I find a replacement for copper.

[Aneninen]

Meanwhile,

if I have time today, I'll start re-considering all of my previous reads. There've been so many things here recently that it's hard for me to remember the things happened before.

[killapenwin]

[/b]@mod:
Q1) would replacements be informed of previous night actions/results?
Q2) If coppers slot is lynched before a replacement, (assuming he is vengeful) would their target still be bbt? [/b]

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Can someone tell me why we're not lynching Copper?

[vettrock]

Can someone tell me why we're not lynching Copper?

Like I have said before, one of copper and BBT is scum. The Titus claim doesn't change that unless there was a double kill between the SK and vig, or vig and scum, or SK and scum. I'll look at how the double kill possability changes things later, and let everyone know.

[Aneninen]

We're not lynching the Copper-slot until it gets filled.

But, I'm summarizing my case against Copper (you can find more information about every points in my previous posts).

Whoever replaces Copper, read this post to understand why I'm scumreading your slot! So, this post is for you in advance.

You must also know this:

because of the claims, the flips and the Nightkills, it's very likely that one of the PR-claims is fake.

It's also possible that two claims are fake. It's highly unlikely, although not impossible that all of the claims are real or three of the claims are fake. Titus's claim is real unless there are exactly two fake claims (in which case it may be fake).


(1) On Day1, after EyeStott's claim he wanted to get a counterclaim from the town. He outed Vettrock on Day2. (He said that he had seen Vettrock's hints but a scum can spot those hints too.) He was the one who had wanted a mass-claim all the time. –

Copper was rolefishing.

(2) On early Day2 he backed his desire for a massclaim with a Setup speculation but he contradicted himself in many cases. (Eg. he admitted after we'd pointed out certain errors in his posts that he hadn't read the town-PR generating mechanism on the Wiki but he made assumptions which showed that he

had read

the Wiki thoroughly.) –

He was lying and he was using "Information instead of Analysis".

(3) He also kept saying that I was misrepresenting him. Eg. he posted that I wanted to auto-lynch him, but I had been posting a zillions of times that we should discuss about him before voting for him and I eventually voted for Copper much later. He said that it had been me who had forced Vettrock to claim. In reality, I asked a question about his setup speculation (he included a PR which had never mentioned before!) and he was the one who outed Vettrock. –

He was misrepresenting me.

There were other things as well, but these are the cornerstones of my case.

The main problem with lynching the Copper-slot is the risk.

If my reads are wrong and he (you) Venge-kills a townie, the game is likely lost. (You can read more about this topic in many of the recent posts.)

[Aneninen]

I'll post a summary about everyone else too, but obviously, Copper's slot had the priority.

[vettrock]

We're not lynching the Copper-slot until it gets filled.

But, I'm summarizing my case against Copper (you can find more information about every points in my previous posts).

Whoever replaces Copper, read this post to understand why I'm scumreading your slot! So, this post is for you in advance.

You must also know this:

because of the claims, the flips and the Nightkills, it's very likely that one of the PR-claims is fake.

It's also possible that two claims are fake. It's highly unlikely, although not impossible that all of the claims are real or three of the claims are fake. Titus's claim is real unless there are exactly two fake claims (in which case it may be fake).


(1) On Day1, after EyeStott's claim he wanted to get a counterclaim from the town. He outed Vettrock on Day2. (He said that he had seen Vettrock's hints but a scum can spot those hints too.) He was the one who had wanted a mass-claim all the time. –

Copper was rolefishing.

(2) On early Day2 he backed his desire for a massclaim with a Setup speculation but he contradicted himself in many cases. (Eg. he admitted after we'd pointed out certain errors in his posts that he hadn't read the town-PR generating mechanism on the Wiki but he made assumptions which showed that he

had read

the Wiki thoroughly.) –

He was lying and he was using "Information instead of Analysis".

(3) He also kept saying that I was misrepresenting him. Eg. he posted that I wanted to auto-lynch him, but I had been posting a zillions of times that we should discuss about him before voting for him and I eventually voted for Copper much later. He said that it had been me who had forced Vettrock to claim. In reality, I asked a question about his setup speculation (he included a PR which had never mentioned before!) and he was the one who outed Vettrock. –

He was misrepresenting me.

There were other things as well, but these are the cornerstones of my case.

The main problem with lynching the Copper-slot is the risk.

If my reads are wrong and he (you) Venge-kills a townie, the game is likely lost. (You can read more about this topic in many of the recent posts.)

If there was not a double-kill or a serial killer who did not kill, exactly one of copper, BBT, and me is lying about the claim. This is the only way it works out. If we put a Z for the titus slot that is T if he is a serial killer and a K if he is VIG, we have:

IIPKZTT if BBT is scum.
IIPHZTT if copper is scum.
IPHKZTT if I am scum. (I am not scum, but including for completeness sake).

If Titus is lying, and he is the serial killer it does not change anything. If he is telling the truth and is the town Vig, it does not change anything. If Titus is lying and he is scum, there has to be a serial killer, which means either 1, 3, or 5 Ts.

For there to be 5 T's, all claims would have to be false: IPTTTTT, this means, copper, BBT, and Titus and me would have to be scum. Since this is 4 scum, this is impossible since with 5 T's there are only two scum, and a serial killer.

If there are 3 T's the setup would be:
IIPHTTT or IIPKTTT, which would mean that Titus is scum AND one of copper and BBT is scum.

If there is 1 T, this is not possible if Titus is scum (The case where he is not is already covered above), unless there is another town with a PR that claimed VT.
IIPKHT?

In summary, one of BBT and copper has to be scum, and only one of the two. Titus can be Vig, SK, or scum, but I think it is most likely that he is either VIG or SK.

If copper is scum, Killa, BBT, and me are all confirmed town.
If the VIG does not shoot, we are left with (assuming I am nightkilled)
three confirmed town(if the hide is successful), one SK or VIG, 2 scum, and 2 other VTs.


If BBT is scum, copper, and I are confirmed town. If the VIG does not shoot, I will likely be killed, which would leave:
one SK or VIG, 2 scum, and 4 other VTs.

To cover all possibilities, If copper and BBT are both town, that would mean I am scum. If copper vengekills BBT and he flips town, Titus can shoot me, (even if he is a SK) and this would prevent a scum win. Killa would be confirmed town, 2 scum, 3 unconfirmed town, and Titus who is either a SK or town VIG. This is 4 or 5 town vs. 2 scum, which still gives us good odds of winning.