Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I knew Copper was scum.

I usually town-read him pretty easily and I couldn't this game.

[vettrock]

We're not lynching the Copper-slot until it gets filled.

But, I'm summarizing my case against Copper (you can find more information about every points in my previous posts).

Whoever replaces Copper, read this post to understand why I'm scumreading your slot! So, this post is for you in advance.

You must also know this:

because of the claims, the flips and the Nightkills, it's very likely that one of the PR-claims is fake.

It's also possible that two claims are fake. It's highly unlikely, although not impossible that all of the claims are real or three of the claims are fake. Titus's claim is real unless there are exactly two fake claims (in which case it may be fake).


(1) On Day1, after EyeStott's claim he wanted to get a counterclaim from the town. He outed Vettrock on Day2. (He said that he had seen Vettrock's hints but a scum can spot those hints too.) He was the one who had wanted a mass-claim all the time. –

Copper was rolefishing.

(2) On early Day2 he backed his desire for a massclaim with a Setup speculation but he contradicted himself in many cases. (Eg. he admitted after we'd pointed out certain errors in his posts that he hadn't read the town-PR generating mechanism on the Wiki but he made assumptions which showed that he

had read

the Wiki thoroughly.) –

He was lying and he was using "Information instead of Analysis".

(3) He also kept saying that I was misrepresenting him. Eg. he posted that I wanted to auto-lynch him, but I had been posting a zillions of times that we should discuss about him before voting for him and I eventually voted for Copper much later. He said that it had been me who had forced Vettrock to claim. In reality, I asked a question about his setup speculation (he included a PR which had never mentioned before!) and he was the one who outed Vettrock. –

He was misrepresenting me.

There were other things as well, but these are the cornerstones of my case.

The main problem with lynching the Copper-slot is the risk.

If my reads are wrong and he (you) Venge-kills a townie, the game is likely lost. (You can read more about this topic in many of the recent posts.)

If there was not a double-kill or a serial killer who did not kill, exactly one of copper, BBT, and me is lying about the claim. This is the only way it works out. If we put a Z for the titus slot that is T if he is a serial killer and a K if he is VIG, we have:

IIPKZTT if BBT is scum.
IIPHZTT if copper is scum.
IPHKZTT if I am scum. (I am not scum, but including for completeness sake).

If Titus is lying, and he is the serial killer it does not change anything. If he is telling the truth and is the town Vig, it does not change anything. If Titus is lying and he is scum, there has to be a serial killer, which means either 1, 3, or 5 Ts.

For there to be 5 T's, all claims would have to be false: IPTTTTT, this means, copper, BBT, and Titus and me would have to be scum. Since this is 4 scum, this is impossible since with 5 T's there are only two scum, and a serial killer.

If there are 3 T's the setup would be:
IIPHTTT or IIPKTTT, which would mean that Titus is scum AND one of copper and BBT is scum.

If there is 1 T, this is not possible if Titus is scum (The case where he is not is already covered above), unless there is another town with a PR that claimed VT.
IIPKHT?

In summary, one of BBT and copper has to be scum, and only one of the two. Titus can be Vig, SK, or scum, but I think it is most likely that he is either VIG or SK.

If copper is scum, Killa, BBT, and me are all confirmed town.
If the VIG does not shoot, we are left with (assuming I am nightkilled)
three confirmed town(if the hide is successful), one SK or VIG, 2 scum, and 2 other VTs.


If BBT is scum, copper, and I are confirmed town. If the VIG does not shoot, I will likely be killed, which would leave:
one SK or VIG, 2 scum, and 4 other VTs.

To cover all possibilities, If copper and BBT are both town, that would mean I am scum. If copper vengekills BBT and he flips town, Titus can shoot me, (even if he is a SK) and this would prevent a scum win. Killa would be confirmed town, 2 scum, 3 unconfirmed town, and Titus who is either a SK or town VIG. This is 4 or 5 town vs. 2 scum, which still gives us good odds of winning.

I welcome town to shoot any holes in this theory. It seems pretty sure given the possible setups.

[Titus]

What about bus drivers?

[Titus]

[/b]@mod:
Q1) would replacements be informed of previous night actions/results?
Q2) If coppers slot is lynched before a replacement, (assuming he is vengeful) would their target still be bbt? [/b]

One is yes.

[Wickedestjr]

Catching up...

(8) Copper is faking as town and he's a Vigilante. I'd hate this. Personally, I don't think it would have been a good idea from Copper but it's possible that he wanted to help the town and it went very wrong. In this case, there's no SK and Tean must claim a PR.

Overall possibility: ???

– Copper, this is your last chance to admit this!

If you do so, I'll unvote you.

That's all he'd have to do? Copper could just lie and survive another day. This does not seem like a town mindset, especially considering, IIRC, you had a decently strong scum read on copper...

[vettrock]

What about bus drivers?

The bus driver is a night action, so it wouldn't affect the vengekill. If copper or BBT is scum, it doesn't affect that. Before I was leaning more towards BBT, but I'm leaning more copper now.

It would potentially affect the hider, or you shooting me. The other thing is the bus driver only exists if you are telling the truth about the VIG claim and are not the serial killer.

The bus driver is also one-shot, so there is the potential they used it already. They also can't use it on both the hider and re-directing a VIG shot.

So if copper and BBT are both town, and I am scum, they could potentaily re-direct the shot to someone else. If you do not shoot, the next day would start with either 4 town and 3 scum, or 3 town, one serial killer. I would be guarenteed scum, the serial killer would have to vote with town to kill me. Anyone opposed to killing me could just as well claim scum at that point. After the quicklynch of me on D3, there would be another night kill and there would be 2 scum and 3 town, or 2 scum, 2 town and 1 SK. It would be in the scums best interest at this point to kill the VIG/SK, so I wouldn't expect the 2/2/1. If the scum don't kill the SK over night, if they want to win, they would have to do it N4 to prevent the 1/1/1 result. I would expect a 3p Lylo.


However, all of the above is theorical, and doesn't matter since I'm not scum. If you are reading the same game I am, I can't see how you can see both copper and BBT as town and me as scum, but I just wanted to point out that even if that is the case, we haven't lost, but it will definately put u

The other option is if the SK/VIG shoot and hits scum, (50% chance either night) It would help the town, or ensure a scum victory if wrong. Not sure if Titus wants to take that on.

[vettrock]

Catching up...

(8) Copper is faking as town and he's a Vigilante. I'd hate this. Personally, I don't think it would have been a good idea from Copper but it's possible that he wanted to help the town and it went very wrong. In this case, there's no SK and Tean must claim a PR.

Overall possibility: ???

– Copper, this is your last chance to admit this!

If you do so, I'll unvote you.

That's all he'd have to do? Copper could just lie and survive another day. This does not seem like a town mindset, especially considering, IIRC, you had a decently strong scum read on copper...

This looks kill Aneninen is trying to save his scum buddy copper to me. If copper is actually a vigilante, Titus would have to be lying about his role, because two K's is one of each.

[Wickedestjr]

Just read page 62.

If copper's town, then he ruined this game for himself. I don't believe any of his attacks deserved that reaction. Admittedly, I'm having slight doubts about the copper bandwagon though;
-I was kinda expecting the premature self-hammer. If copper is scum, in a clear near-death scenario, there's a significant advantage to hammering before the Tean slot can claim (regardless of Tean/Titus's alignment). Maybe he thought he could sway the vote elsewhere, but he was in a position to end the day prematurely and he chose not to.
-If he was scum feigning frustration with BBT, why would he violate the 'no public hatred' rule thus risking (and eventually leading to) his ejection? Sure, it could have been genuine frustration from scum copper, bothered by BBT's lack of attention to the game, but if he was

that

angry maybe he would have self-hammered.

I'm still 'leaning scum' but we cannot ignore these ideas... BBT, what do you think of this?

[Wickedestjr]

Forgot to talk about this;

Titus's vig claim is interesting, because it is an indicator that she is probably not mafia. These are the possibilities;
-Titus is actually a vig. - Possible
-Titus is an SK pretending to be a vig. - Possible
-Titus is mafia, pretending to be the vig, gambling on the hypothetical SK not countering. - This is a risky move for Titus mafia, because SK would almost certainly target Titus tonight. There's a slight chance that Titus is mafia with a bus driver power for protection, but no other mafia role could protect her and I doubt she would make this move with so little time to claim.

TL;DR - I am not voting Titus today.

[Wickedestjr]

Read page 63.

-The haiku 'crumb' is a good catch, but I doubt it is an actual breadcrumb. If Tean were to crumb, I would expect them to do it in the right order and not while writing a haiku. Null imo.
-I don't think the number of night 1 deaths should affect our setup speculation. With a jail keeper, potential double kills, and a potential hider, anything could have happened last night to make three kills look like two.

There could be benefit to setup speculation, but I think it needs to be done very carefully. I plan to crunch the numbers and think about who could be faking later; when I am caught up, fully awake, and have the time.

[Wickedestjr]

Read page 64. And I dislike this post;

What if we lynch Vettrock and see the flip. Then if it is scum all the PRs could be telling the truth but if it is town then Titus shoots someone and if Cooper is alive we lynch him since he is either scum or vengeful where he can shot someone scummy.

An idea would be to have BBT hide behind Me or Heartless. I want to be cleared and I think Heartless is scum so they are both good plays. It also makes scum guess who to shoot if BBT is actually a Hider.

Titus shoots someone of their own choosing who isn't me or Heartless or Copper slot.

Actually what if BBT hides behind Copper slot? If just BBT ends up dead then copper is scum. If just Copper is dead then BBT is lying. If both are dead then it is the same thing as what a lynch today would have done. If they are both alive then copper should be confirmed town. We would have to no lynch to make sure we aren't walking right into LYLO or MYLO though from my quick math. Titus could shoot anyone they wanted and Vettrock should someone random.

Opinions?

1. I thought you were town reading vettrock? If you changed that, then I missed it, but otherwise, any plan that involves lynching vettrock today seems like an awful plan that I would not forgive the voters for. This seems like a weird suggestion for you.
2. Directing the hider is also bad. If BBT is really a hider, then we need to keep his next choice an absolute secret.
3. Scum could have a JOAT (with role blocker) and or a bus driver, both are roles that could severely screw with our minds. In general, if they have any idea who's doing what, they can probably take advantage of it - potentially rendering our power roles as harmful rather than helpful.
4. I think you are making assumptions that you shouldn't be making.

+Scum points

[Wickedestjr]

Read page 65.

If we no lynch we should guarantee that we are not in LYLO tomorrow

. Titus doesn't shoot anyone and we go through with the Vettrock->BBT->Copper plan to see if we can gain any information. Busdriver will either redirect the Hider to scum, if not already on scum, or redirect Vettrock to someone who did nothing. Roleblock will just stop Vettrock or BBT.

At most we should have two kills tonight

if they busdrive BBT to a scum person if BBT is even a Hider.

If we no lynch and two people die tonight, then we are in MyLo tomorrow which is almost LyLo...

Hmm... is it not possible for there to be a vig AND an SK? IIRC, I didn't see any mention of that, but I don't see why we'd rule that out.

[Wickedestjr]

Read page 66.

We don't have to do the plan. Also, I am trying to win the damn game. What are you doing?

Titus, this is the first time I am town reading you please don't fuck it up.

*everything feels off here*

BBT's hider breadcrumb actually looks legitimate. It was page 12 (I think), but it was his first serious post of the game. He's either a hider or scum that set that up. I cannot envision a scenario where he accidentally posts the breadcrumb in his first serious post AND just happens to notice it as scum (who goes back looking for a crumb they didn't intentionally make?). BBT town read is growing stronger.

Ehh... I really don't want to no lynch today. Haven't thought about the setup enough yet to rule it out as an option, but I

will

think about the setup over the next few days.

[beastcharizard]

You just hate all my posts. Can you not see how they are coming from a town state of mind? I feel they should make me obvious town but that might just be because I know I am town and I know it is all to help town.

I don't scum read Vettrock but there is still a slight chance they are scum. I also changed my idea at the end of the post but I wanted to not delete my thinking in case someone else liked it for some reason.

Also, it has been decided that my plans are not the way to go.

[Wickedestjr]

Should I end the day?

That he didn't = scum hoping beyond hope not to get lynched, rather than town who knows that they can shoot. (And depending on the mod, may have access to twilight-talk after the lynch. Not exactly sure on that one, but some mods have it.)

Interesting… I had the opposite reaction. What do you think of my thoughts on this?


Beast, I don't hate all your posts. I just can't see the town motivation.


All caught up, but I am still thinking about everything. Feels like the game changes every day. It's fun, but I need to put the time in...

[Aneninen]

Vettrock, your 1672 makes sense. I also pointed out some of those things before. (Eg. in 1606).
Some remarks.
(1) (*) In theory, a TTTT Setup is possible if each of Copper, BBT and Vettrock are lying.
(2) If it's TT, Titus is a Vigilante and there's no SK. One of Copper, BBT and Vettrock is lying. According to Ockham's Razor, this is the most probable version (we need to make the least assumptions for this)
(3) It's not impossible that two of these players: Copper, BBT and Vettrock are lying. So, even if Copper is scum it's not confirmed that BBT and Vettrock are town. (The Copper–BBT scumpair is not too likely, see below.)
(4) (*) If it's T, all of the scums must be amongst the VT-claims: Heartless, Mastin, Wicked, Beast, Aneninen. (In this case, Penguin is town because of BBT's hiding. I know that I'm not scum. In this scenario there's an SK too, so all the other names are scums.)
(5) (*) The Bus-Driver can mix up the Nightkills.
(6) (*) If Titus is SK, it's absolutely not sure that he may shoot you.

The points marked with (*) should be ignored, I think.
(1) is very unlikely and if it's true, the game is most probably lost. But, testing it later (after one or two of those names flipping scum) would be a bad gameplay. Titus's Vig kills in that case could help a lot, though. (4) is unlikely too, but if Copper, BBT and Vettrock are all out (and they all flip town), we still have a chance to win if there are missing kills or crosskils (the SK shoots Mafia and/or Vice versa). (5) can hurt us a lot, but with multiple kills (especially if there's an SK) a Bus-Driving can go wrong for the scums too. And yes, it's possible that the Bus-Driver used his PR at Night1. (6) is also possible, but even if Copper and/or BBT flips town and the SK shoots someone else (hoping that you'll lynched Tomorrow), he/she can still shoot a scum (or another scum).

TL;DR: In general, your thoughts are correct if we include (2) and (3).

________

Wicked, your 1679 was very dumb. First of all, you just picked a small part out of a long post where I tried to summarize ALL of the possibilities. I simply included that point amongst others. Also, even I admitted later that my ideas there had been wrong. Plus, I mentioned "unvote", not "townreading him". I don't think if he had changed his fake-claim to another fake-claim, that would have saved him later. And finally, he refused even my assumption that he'd ever fake-claim as a townie.

Wicked, 1682 –

"If he was scum feigning frustration with BBT, why would he violate the 'no public hatred' rule thus risking (and eventually leading to) his ejection?"

– I know it's a bit like "outguessing the mod" but I think that Copper/BBT fight was a scum-vs-town fight because Copper got force-replaced and BBT got warned. If both of them were scum or town, I don't think they would have gotten a different treatment. (Or it's also possible that Copper was much ruder? I'm a bit insensitive to flame-wars, I've seen much worse things before, ending up with violating ...much serious things.)
As for your Beast-reads, I'll re-examine him later. But it's obvious that I'll post about BBT and Vettrock next.

[Aneninen]

Examining BBT.

It took some time for me to crystallize my reads on him, but before the massclaims and the mid-Day2 events I had a townread on him.

Around 1226 he started to make posts I didn't like and the first "round" of fight between he and Copper seemed to be somewhat faked. I also disliked that he jumped on the Copper-wagon with a naked vote in 1256 (right after Mastin) – partly because I said that we should

discuss

about Copper, not to wagon him! Also, I don't like that he still wants to lynch the Copper-slot, regardless of its emptiness (eg. 1670).
As for his fight with Copper... I don't know. As I said in my previous post I found it strange that one of them was sent away while the other one was only warned, and even if I know that it's bad speculation my mind can't rule it out. In short: one of them was faking while the other one was raging – but, which one was which? Therefore, I don't think both of them are scum.

To tell the truth, that's all I can bring up against BBT. He seems to be much less scummy as Copper.
Vettrock, I don't know why you think that lynching BBT is riskier, in my opinion it's much safer than a Copper-lynch. If BBT's scum, bingo! In addition, in that case Copper is probably town and it's good to have a Vengeful around in late-game. If he's town, we'll lose a townie by lynching him, but we gain a confirmed townie: Penguin. (And Copper is most probably scum who can get shot at Night2.) It's sure that by Hiding he could confirmed another townie (if we lynch Copper, he's not scum and he Venge-kills someone else – thin chance for this sequence of events). But, will he choose his target wrong and he's dead – and we DEFINITELY don't need a "bonus" dead townie!

[vettrock]

Vettrock, your 1672 makes sense. I also pointed out some of those things before. (Eg. in 1606).
Some remarks.
(1) (*) In theory, a TTTT Setup is possible if each of Copper, BBT and Vettrock are lying.
(2) If it's TT, Titus is a Vigilante and there's no SK. One of Copper, BBT and Vettrock is lying. According to Ockham's Razor, this is the most probable version (we need to make the least assumptions for this)
(3) It's not impossible that two of these players: Copper, BBT and Vettrock are lying. So, even if Copper is scum it's not confirmed that BBT and Vettrock are town. (The Copper–BBT scumpair is not too likely, see below.)
(4) (*) If it's T, all of the scums must be amongst the VT-claims: Heartless, Mastin, Wicked, Beast, Aneninen. (In this case, Penguin is town because of BBT's hiding. I know that I'm not scum. In this scenario there's an SK too, so all the other names are scums.)
(5) (*) The Bus-Driver can mix up the Nightkills.
(6) (*) If Titus is SK, it's absolutely not sure that he may shoot you.

The points marked with (*) should be ignored, I think.
(1) is very unlikely and if it's true, the game is most probably lost. But, testing it later (after one or two of those names flipping scum) would be a bad gameplay. Titus's Vig kills in that case could help a lot, though. (4) is unlikely too, but if Copper, BBT and Vettrock are all out (and they all flip town), we still have a chance to win if there are missing kills or crosskils (the SK shoots Mafia and/or Vice versa). (5) can hurt us a lot, but with multiple kills (especially if there's an SK) a Bus-Driving can go wrong for the scums too. And yes, it's possible that the Bus-Driver used his PR at Night1. (6) is also possible, but even if Copper and/or BBT flips town and the SK shoots someone else (hoping that you'll lynched Tomorrow), he/she can still shoot a scum (or another scum).

TL;DR: In general, your thoughts are correct if we include (2) and (3).

________

Wicked, your 1679 was very dumb. First of all, you just picked a small part out of a long post where I tried to summarize ALL of the possibilities. I simply included that point amongst others. Also, even I admitted later that my ideas there had been wrong. Plus, I mentioned "unvote", not "townreading him". I don't think if he had changed his fake-claim to another fake-claim, that would have saved him later. And finally, he refused even my assumption that he'd ever fake-claim as a townie.

Wicked, 1682 –

"If he was scum feigning frustration with BBT, why would he violate the 'no public hatred' rule thus risking (and eventually leading to) his ejection?"

– I know it's a bit like "outguessing the mod" but I think that Copper/BBT fight was a scum-vs-town fight because Copper got force-replaced and BBT got warned. If both of them were scum or town, I don't think they would have gotten a different treatment. (Or it's also possible that Copper was much ruder? I'm a bit insensitive to flame-wars, I've seen much worse things before, ending up with violating ...much serious things.)
As for your Beast-reads, I'll re-examine him later. But it's obvious that I'll post about BBT and Vettrock next.

Looking at it again, I agree that it is possible for two of copper, BBT and me to be scum. For that to happen, Titus would have to be telling the truth, and the there would be a serial killer who did not shoot, or doubled up on a kill. Not impossible, but not likely. From my perspective, that would be copper and BBT are both scum, which I would consider unlikely. In that case, one (or more) of copper/BBT is scum) and we still get a scum dead by lynching copper assuming that if he is town he shoots BBT.

I guess it is possible we all flip town if the setup is:
IIPKKHT. This assume that the serial killer either did not shoot, or the kill was doubled up. Keep in mind that there is 1 T in only 5% of the setups. So %5 of the setups, and the vig and serial killer did not shoot. Doesn't seem very likely.

[Aneninen]

Badpost i leftout things.
Corrections via mobile.
If we lynch copper and he is scum bbt can try to conf a townie. The rest is there.
After a scum bbt flip coppergets prob killed at night. No real avdantage there.
Sorry i was in a hurry.

[Aneninen]

Shyt ninjaed by vettrock. The previous went for my ownpost.

[Titus]

So much theory spec...

Bold please

Lynch Cooper, yes or no.
who should cooper take if vengeful?

[vettrock]

So much theory spec...

Bold please

Lynch Cooper, yes or no.
who should cooper take if vengeful?

Yes lynch copper.
If vengeful, shoot BBT

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Yes, lynch Copper.

[Aneninen]

Wait-oh. Are you talking about lynching the Copper-slot while it's empty?
Also, what are you expecting by doing this? The replacement arrives so as to get informed that... "we decided to lynch you, if you're town, Vengkill BBT"??? Would YOU replace into a slot like this?

(I'm going on with my posts soon, Vettrock is coming.)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

We should lynch him before a replacement is found.