Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Killa is conf town. Wicked is town. Anen is town.

Those 3 I feel good about.

Heartless and Mastin are scum.

The rest I'll worry about at a later date.

Heartess, Mastin and BC; why am I scum?

Your vote is ridiculous BC. How am I scum?

[vettrock]

VOTE: BBT

See my eariler analysis one of BBT and copper was lying. Its BBT.

[Aneninen]

...(Note to self. At this point I realized that I've been reading the whole game if a "Copper is scum"-biased way for a while. Even if I'm examining someone else I lead back to my reads to Copper (unintentionally, though). I strongly hope that Copper is scum because if not, most of my reads will turn into pigeon poop.)...

So, most of my reads has just turned into pigeon poop.

Do I have time to get my reads knowing that Copper–Teapot was town? Because, it seems to be logical that BBT must be scum, but what if Vettrock is lying?
I also want to check the reactions which were given to the Mod error.

[Titus]

BBT is at L minus 1. I do not like the speed of this wagon.

I also am concerned that we have no liars and a blocked SK. Every scum in that side would push a BBT lynch here most likely.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Second Titus on the speed of my wagon.

This is ridiculous. Somebody better start giving me reasons for why I'm scum before I get lynched.

It's heartless, Mastin & somebody else.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Scum will prob kill Killa and town are in this same position tomorrow only it's LyLo.

Seriously, if you're town and you're voting me; you need to reevaluate.

[Heartless]

well, first off you're staring at a 95% shot at vettrock being scum and you're ignoring it

[beastcharizard]

I am not voting based of any reads. I am voting based on what would have been the vengeful kill since we were so obviously going to be voting copper yesterday. This is the only fair way in my mind to get the game back on track and for it to not leave a weird taste in my mouth.

So this is a principle vote.

My reads have all been spelled out earlier though and BBT was part of the scum list with copper.

Also, I have a surefire LYLO strategy so town will win if I am alive at LYLO.

[Titus]

well, first off you're staring at a 95% shot at vettrock being scum and you're ignoring it

Why?


@Beast, if your strategy is valid, it should be valid for any VT. Why not share it now? Why does every post you make like me like you less?

Also, we had a town modkilled and lost his ability. That's pretty "fair" enough and looks like you're looking for an exit hatch when BBT flips town.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Lol. BC your reasoning is absolutely awful.

How is Vettrock 95% scum?

[beastcharizard]

How the hell is that fair? If they hadn't been removed from the game then BBT would be dead.

Also, no clue what you are talking about strategy wise right now. I don't remember much as I thought the game wasn't going to be started again.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

You don't vote based on what's 'fair'.

You vote on who you think is scum.

I bet scum were fucking loving the argument between Copper and myself, praying it played out the way it looked like it was going to.

Lynch Heartless or Mastin. Let's go.

[Heartless]

Oh, the backtrack. This is so much fun.

[beastcharizard]

UNVOTE:

Fine, let me get to this later then.

Still probably going to vote BBT but let me at least have time to make up a reason instead of stating the actual one.

[Heartless]

Why?

Antihero is off in his statistical analysis, but the point is still there.

If the moderator really did generate a random sequence of letters for the power roles, by using binomial distribution, you can calculate a 5.46% chance of a setup with a single T. The chances go slightly up for two T's at 16.4%. Not high, but it's triple the odds of the one T and not nearly as negligible. Three T's is even higher at 27%.

If BBT really is town then from his perspective, vettrock should be almost a sure thing and it's undoubtedly where his vote would go if he was playing towards a town win condition. But it's not, so he's not and he's avoiding voting off other PR claims because it would leave less reasonable doubt of his lies.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Yeah, I don't do set-up spec.

That's been pretty fucking evident this entire game. Using that as reason to scum-read me is pretty bad.

I don't give a fuck what anyone thinks the set-up is.

I'm voting who I think is scum.

[Heartless]

It doesn't matter. The numbers don't lie. But you do.

(Hint: The confidence in Antihero and mastin's tone and posting isn't conferred by the frequency they use the f-bomb. Just for future reference.)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Numbers don't lie. You're right.

Am I going to lynch someone because it's very unlikely they are town or because I think they're scum? I'm going to lynch whoever I think is scum. Every. Single. Time.

Also, it would be a pretty nice situation for scum if we were in the 5% scenario because they (read: you) can keep pushing this bullshit. After you mislynch me it's like 'Oh shit, well, numbers don't lie so Vettrock must be scum. Let's lynch him now we're in LyLo.'

Can we lynch Heartless now?

[Heartless]

there are reasons outside of setup spec, you know

like......the completely unnatural reads progression that's gone on today

no one bit on the Anen vote so you left that read in a ditch
you already were bracing for the real vengeflip on copper you knew was coming

So why would BBT, as scum, want to lynch Cooper if his goal is to live?

Now that the massclaim has occurred, his days are numbered anyway if he's scum. Taking down town with him would be optimal scum play.

Also, if you look at the recent posting, BBT's made some moves to try to pull out of the 1v1.

See especially

the last post I spoiler below:

Spoiler:

He's speaking to me Anen.

He's doing really well selling that he is actually vengeful. I'm beginning to doubt myself.

I'll lynch you happily now.

Thanks for that.

You know I'm town Copper. I can see it in your posts.

FU.

Get lynched.

Do it.

Self-hammer and shoot me you fucking idiot.

Banned for nailing scum?

Nah, that's town's job.

Why is Vettrock getting a free pass again?

these reads change as the walls of your tunnels collapse

[Heartless]

Mastin/BC/

Vettrock

/Heartless is where the scum are.

Guaranteed.

also... for all the bluster about FUCK THE MATH

LOL

[Heartless]

I have not checked the math but are we now at mylo or lylo now that copperpot died?

neither

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I don't see my reads changing on Copper. I said I was

beginning

to doubt myself, that's not even close to a change in reads.

I still maintain that's where all the scum are.

I dropped my scum-read of Anen quite some time ago. Nice attempt of a misrep. Anen looks like he is trying to solve this game and his recent posts have been a huge improvement on his earlier ones.

I realise I'm the easy lynch now that Copper has flipped town. Scum have played this quite well, I must admit.

As long as you or Mastin are lynched tomorrow I don't give a fuck.

[mastin2]

I have not checked the math but are we now at mylo or lylo now that copperpot died?

No, right now we're effectively at where we'd be if copper was lynched, before he would take his shot. So instead of him taking the shot, we are taking the shot for him.

The math always allowed (assuming the worst-case scenario) for tomorrow to be mylo/lylo.

[beastcharizard]

The only other person I would vote is Wicked, BBT.

[vettrock]

The only case where BBT is not scum is if we have a serial killer that was blocked or did double killed round one, and Titus is telling the truth about being a vigilante.

With my claim, we have if Titus is town:
IIPKKTT, and there is now serial killer, BBT claim would be false.

We should lynch BBT

With my claim and Titus is the serial killer pretending to be a vigilante, we have:
IIPKTTT, and BBT's claim would be false.

We should lynch BBT

If BBT's claim is true, and Titus's claim is true we have:
IIPKKHT. This means that there is a serial killer who did not kill (or double-killed). This also means we are in the 5% of setups that have only one T. I think the chances of both of these being true as being pretty small. For both of these to be true, the probability would be 5% time the probably that the serial killer double killed or was jailkept.

Possible, but small chance. Significantly less that 5%. Lynching BBT is our best option.

If BBT's claim is true and Titus is the serial killer pretending to be a vigilante, we have:
IIPKHTX. There is no possible value for X as a serial killer requires an odd number of T's. and there would have to be another claim that someone who claimed VT was actually a PR. I see this a pretty unlikely.

If all town is telling the truth, zero chance

If Titus is scum, and BBT's claim is true we have:

IIPKHTT. This is not possible since there was two kills N1. There is no one to perform the second kill.

If Titus is scum and BBT's claim is false we have:
IIPKTTT. This is possible as we have as serial killer, for the second kill.

BBT is scum and we should lynch him