Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)


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Post Post #1825 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:55 pm

Post by Wickedestjr »

killapenwin is still town. vettrock is still town. Titus is probably town- at least her vig claim makes it very unlikely she is
mafia
, so I am also ignoring her as a lynch possibility for today.

I am still pretty confident in BBT-town. I was not expecting Teapot to flip town, but the town-flip doesn’t change my BBT read. Almost everything about his recent play feels genuine and the ‘breadcrumb’ is also a strong tell imo (for reasons I explained earlier). I am frustrated by the bandwagon on him - it is awful. Let me explain why;

“Why BBT’s Bandwagon is Awful”
mastin2 wrote:VOTE: BBT.

As a starting point.

Mind's not in the game right now, not really. But I want BBT lynched.
-
Many players said
BBT vs. Copper wasn't townVtown.
-BBT being a hider confirms killa as town, a result I'm now doubting a bit.
-Gives us a ton of info aside from that, on the setup and therefore other claims.
-Plus to some extent POE. If copper's not scum, who can be?

She votes BBT ‘as a starting point’, but the vote feels extremely opportunistic and I get the impression that this ‘starting point’ will ride out to the day’s end. It also seems opportunistic because none of these reasons are actually telling. I especially do not like the use of the phrase ‘many players said’ in this post - what did
mastin
think of the BBT vs. copper and why? I don’t think she should be voting based off of what other players are saying.

beastcharizard wrote:Teapot gets an honorary win I hope.

VOTE: BBT

Regardless of opinion this is what cooper would have wanted and thus I am not voting anyone else. I am pretending like this is the vengeful shot.

The mod locked the thread so that he could decide what the fairest option is. And he decided that removing Teapot was the fairest option. This vote feels lazy/opportunistic. I am glad that I can have a say in this lynch and I cannot imagine how another townie would not be…

Heartless wrote:well, first off you're staring at a 95% shot at vettrock being scum and you're ignoring it

This point is wrong for a few reasons.

1. The math is wrong (as the other head acknowledged). The setup is probably T, TT, or TTT (unless Titus, BBT, and vettrock are ALL lying, but I am almost certain that is not the case). Without knowing anything about the setup, these probabilities are;
T- 5.5%
TT- 16.4%
TTT- 27.3%
However, given that we know it is one of these choices, the probabilities are NOW actually;
T- 11.2%
TT- 33.3%
TTT- 55.5%

2. Even if the probability for T was 0.001%, this point is still flawed in that it ignores the possibility of Titus being fake.

Heartless wrote:no one bit on the Anen vote so you left that read in a ditch

You are scum or ridiculous if you don’t think Aneninen significantly improved his play today. I was already leaning town on Aneninen, but that town lean strengthened when he started putting more effort in. I see what BBT saw.


That leaves: Aneninen, beast, Heartless, and mastin.

I was strongly town reading Aneninen and Heartless before, but the copper flip and Titus vig claim are both making me start to question those reads. Heartless’s lack of recent town tells and current vote for BBT are bothersome and Aneninen is starting to look like scum by POE. If all my other ‘non-mafia’ reads are right, which I strongly believe they are, then the mafia are within;
{Aneninen, beastcharizard, Heartless, mastin2}

If I had to order that right now it would be; beastcharizard, mastin2, Heartless, and Aneninen (scummiest —> least scummy). But beast/Heartless is a very unlikely partnership because;
-beast’s attack and then subsequent town read on Heartless is really weird if they are scum buddies
-The recent beast/Heartless/mastin bandwagon pile up does not seem like a realistic scum team action.

beast and Heartless are probably not partners, so I am going to say the scum team is Beast/Aneninen/Mastin (BAM!) with Heartless as an alternate if any of those three are wrong.

Either way, my reads have been horrible this game, but now I am confident that I am on the right track. We have four lynches left and the mafia are almost certainly in that group of four- so let’s get to lynching.

Vote: beastcharizard
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Post Post #1826 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:03 pm

Post by Wickedestjr »

Vettrock, I'm sorry, but I don't see why you are making any of those assumptions. I think the setup is IIPHKKT OR IIPHKTT with Titus lying.
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Post Post #1827 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:18 pm

Post by vettrock »

Wickedestjr wrote:Vettrock, I'm sorry, but I don't see why you are making any of those assumptions. I think the setup is IIPHKKT OR IIPHKTT with Titus lying.


IIPHKKT is possible if the serial killer did not kill, was jailkept by dodgy, or killed the same person as Titus or the same person that scum killed. I will also add the possibility one of the targets of the kill was jailkept, and that protected them. that I see the updated percentages, and you are correct, since we know some of the setup already, the probability changes. So the changes of this setup are (assuming you did the math correct) 11% instead of 5%. The reason you have to make the assumption about the kill, is otherwise there would have been three kills. I think the chances of this a greater than I initially believed, but still not all that likely.

IIPHKTT is not possible. If Titus is lying, where did the second kill come from? TT has no serial killer.
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Post Post #1828 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:55 pm

Post by Wickedestjr »

vettrock wrote:IIPHKTT is not possible. If Titus is lying, where did the second kill come from? TT has no serial killer.

:facepalm: My mistake, sorry. I saw that there were two kills night 1. I saw that TT had no serial killer. I didn't put 2 and 2 together.

@Heartless- point #2 in my last big post was an error on my part, you can ignore it (unless you want to attack me for it).

To correct my previous post, I think the setup is IIPHKKT. I will admit that 11% is small, but the strength in my town reads on you and BBT overpowers the doubt of this unlikelihood. I may have been wrong about several of my past scum reads, but I have a very good track record when it comes to clearing people. And I cannot envision a scenario where you or BBT is scum.

Vettrock, what do you think of my post 1687 w.r.t. BBT's breadcrumb? I think that's one of the strongest town tells for him. I also think it's evident that he genuinely doesn't care about appearing townish when he posts - that's a strong town tell too.
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Post Post #1829 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 9:46 pm

Post by mastin2 »

It's late.
I don't really feel like saying why right now.

But Wicked's BBT's partner.
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Post Post #1830 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:30 pm

Post by Jackal711 »

VOTE COUNT 2.12


killapenwin (0) -
BlueBloodedToffee (3) - Heartless, mastin2, vettrock
Heartless (1) - BlueBloodedToffee
vettrock (0) -
Aneninen (0) -
Wickedestjr (0) -
beastcharizard (3) - killapenwin, Titus, Wickedestjr
Titus (0) -
mastin2 (0) -

Not Voting: Aneninen, beastcharizard

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline is Wednesday, February 11th at 12pm PST which is in (expired on 2015-02-11 12:00:00)
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Post Post #1831 (ISO) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 11:57 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

UNVOTE:

VOTE: BC
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Post Post #1832 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:39 am

Post by beastcharizard »

Now I just want to vote you on the principle that I hate naked votes. You could have at least made up a reason.
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Post Post #1833 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:43 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Can you explain why you would only vote Wicked if not me?
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Post Post #1834 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 4:01 am

Post by Heartless »

well this inexplicable counterwagon on a vt claim isn't suspicious at all....
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Post Post #1835 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 4:29 am

Post by Aneninen »

This'll be about the recent events. We're getting closer and closer to the Deadline and I'm not sure whether I'll have time to reconstruct all of my older reads fitting the Copper-flip in.

So, I'll focus on the facts: how certain players reacted to the Mod-slip and what has happened since then?
I assume that everyone was and is aware of the fact: although it was the
most likely
possibility that either Copper or BBT is lying, that was not the
only
possibility. Plenty of us had been posting a lot about the topic before Copper got confirmed.

Spoiler:
Heartless's is null.

Beast's is not. Even if he said
"doesn't fell right"
it felt as if he wanted/wants an insta-BBT lynch instead of examining the situation.

Wicked, if you don't mind I'll ignore your , that was mostly about Copper and it's irrelevant now. His might have come from a town-mindset but it's easy to fake a post like that. Null.

Mastin's is very scummy. Especially since this vote had come
before
the Mod resolution. There were many things in this post (and in her next posts too), I only point out this:
"If copper's not scum, who can be?"
– we had posted A LOT about all the possibilities before the Mod-slip! What sort of question was that?!

BBT, – THIS. Because of THIS post I don't auto-assume that BBT's scum. If I'm right about his personality (ingame and IRL too) if he were scum he'd have started raging something like "it's unfair, f-ck Mod" – or he wouldn't have posted at all.
Therefore,
I'm considering BBT as the lowest-hanging fruit of MafiaScum EVER
and every single vote given to him will be thoroughly examined.

Titus, – the first post after the Mod resolution. Townish; she tries to examine the possibilities instead of auto-voting BBT.

Heartless, – it looks scummier than it is, I suppose. Firstly, they could have insta-voted BBT after the Mod-slip (that would have been very FoS, though). Secondly, they had been scumreading BBT before the Copper-slip happened. So, in itself this vote is a null.

Beast, – this vote overdrives my scum-o-meter.
"Regardless of opinion this is what cooper would have wanted and thus I am not voting anyone else. I am pretending like this is the vengeful shot."
– Why should we automatically follow a "might have happened Vengeful-shot"? Also, consider this: he had never voted for BBT on Day2 before this post!!!

Titus, – I think that's mere speculation. We should be sure whether there's an SK at all before starting to guess was he/she jailed at Night1 or not.

BBT, – I'm not sure about this. Vettrock wasn't mentioned in the post at all! (Is it still possible that both Vettrock and BBT are scum? I'll need to examine that.)

Vettrock, – Another scummy vote. For the same reason as Mastin's one.

Titus,
"BBT is at L minus 1. I do not like the speed of this wagon."
– Neither do I!!! In theory, it's possible that Titus is scum (again, I should re-examine my older posts), but I simply don't think so.

Beast, – Pigeon poop.
"I am voting based on what would have been the vengeful kill since we were so obviously going to be voting copper yesterday."
– had it come from a townie it would have been against the WinCon. (Intentionally not trying to scumhunt at all.)
"My reads have all been spelled out earlier though and BBT was part of the scum list with copper."
– yes, I remember that now, you're right. But,
"Also, I have a surefire LYLO strategy so town will win if I am alive at LYLO."
– why are you THAT sure that there'll be a LyLo? It's far not essentially a LyLo if we lynch scum Today.

Heartless,
If BBT really is town then from his perspective, vettrock should be almost a sure thing and it's undoubtedly where his vote would go if he was playing towards a town win condition. But it's not, so he's not and he's avoiding voting off other PR claims because it would leave less reasonable doubt of his lies."
– Uhhh... wait-oh. So, if BBT's town and he knows he's town, he should know that it's very likely that Vettrock's scum, based upon the Setup math. Did you want to explain this?
I'll need to think about it. If this is right, either BBT's scum or he didn't examined the probablilities. He admitted the latter one later. (To tell the truth, I haven't examined the Math thoroughly as well, since the Copper-flip.)

Heartless,
"no one bit on the Anen vote so you left that read in a ditch"
(that was about BBT) – am I misremembering something? I thought that he had dropped his case against me ages ago... Lol, BBT answered the same a couple of posts later.

Vettrock, – yes, yes, it seems to be valid... except for one tiny bit. There's NO evidence that Vettrock's town! The Setup speculation seems to be right but somehow I feel that Vettrock took advantage of the situation that BBT doesn't do Setup speculation and posted this before him.
Everyone! Keep in mind that if we change the names "BBT" and "Vettrock" in this post, it will be still true and valid!
By the way, the possibility of a T Setup (all claims are true) is bigger than it was before the Copper-flip because we know that his claim was real. However, it makes no sense that Vettrock thinks it's still about 5%, unless... yet again, is there a possibility for a BBT/Vettrock team?
– not relevant, there was a conversation about it later.

Wicked, – it
looks
like a townpost but I STILL don't understand why Vettrock is left out of the possibilities!

BBT, – what was that vote?! Werent Heartless and Mastin your strongest scumreads?


Summary.
If I compare BBT's and Vettrock's post-Copper gameplay, Vettrock is much more scummy. BBT's trying to scumhunt, even if he ignores the Setup math. Vettrock is basicly posting only abouth the Math and as far as I can see, doesn't try to get reads on anyone. If we lynch scum we're still not there... we'll only have a better chance Tomorrow. Therefore, focusing on only ONE player is anti-town.
I don't have a strong townread on BBT. Firstly, there are disturbing things (eg. his Beast-vote). Second, if it's possible that both he and Vettrock are scum, their gameplay makes perfect sense.

Basicly, everything Beast has posted since the Copper-flip has been scummy. Did I misread him before (I thought: "don't think he's Mafia but could be SK") and he may be Mafia? Nevertheless, if it gets clear that there's an SK, we should insta-lynch him.

The similar goes for Mastin, although her latest posts look a bit less scummy than Beast's. (I could imagine that she's simply lazy but ehhh.)

Heartless used to fit perfectly in my old "Copper and Heartless are scum" theory. Unless they're bussing each other with BBT they can't be scum together. However, it's easy to imagine that they're scum with either Vettrock or Mastin (or both?). Need to re-check later.

Wicked looks town but his constant townread on Vettrock in this situation concerns me. If Vettrock's scum he's scum too, I think.

I still don't care about Titus. Someone mentioned that she could be SK, but, as far as I can remember, her claim can be wrong only if either Vettrock or BBT is lying.

Penguin could be scum only if BBT's lying. I'm still ignoring this possibility.

Including (from most important to least important factors)
– my reads on the recent posts
– the possibe teams (even if it's speculative)
– the Setup math (that I still need to re-examine)
Vettrock is to be lynched.
Beast looks so scummy that I'd rather lynch him than BBT if I had to choose between them because of the Deadline.

VOTE: Vettrock
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Post Post #1836 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:30 am

Post by killapenwin »

Bit of a newb question but if there is a mafia JOAT can they use 1 NK alongside another mafia member?
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Post Post #1837 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:44 am

Post by killapenwin »

Doesn't explain why there were 2 Night kills?
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Post Post #1838 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:52 am

Post by vettrock »

killapenwin wrote:Doesn't explain why there were 2 Night kills?

killapenwin wrote:Bit of a newb question but if there is a mafia JOAT can they use 1 NK alongside another mafia member?

The mafia get one NK, the other NK is either the Town Vigilante (Assuming Titus is telling the truth), or a serial killer. The JOAT does not allow any additional kill.

After thinking about this a little, I see Titus as either town, or the serial killer. I don't see any situation where she could be scum. If scum, and claiming he scum kill, (or the serial killer's kill) She would have outted herself as scum to the serial killer. The serial killer would know the kill they made, and the by POE, the kill the scum made. The SK, I think would then target her the next night, meaning certain death. I can see no gain from scum with this situation. She is either the serial killer, or a town vigilante.

With BBT scum we have:
IIPKKTT, which has no serial killer, and Titus telling the truth
or
IIPKTTT, which has a serial killer, and Titus is the serial killer.


If BBT is telling the truth we have:
IIPKKHT. This has both a serial killer, and Titus as the town vigilante, and need some explanation for why there was only 2 kills N1 instead of 3.

We cannot have:
IIPKHTT since there is no way for a second kill on N1. If BBT is telling the truth, Titus must be telling the truth as well and is not the serial killer.


There are three possible setups from my POV:
IIPKTTT, IIPKKTT, or IIPKKHT. I think the more T's, the more probable. Also the problem with the 1 T setup, in addition to it being the least common, it also requires an explaination for why there was only 2 NKs on N1. While there are explanations for why that occurred, you are stacking these explanations on top of the least likely of the setups.

This is why I think BBT is scum.

As for Aneminen comment about ignoreing the other scum, I think it is critical that we lynch one scum today. I see BBT as the best candidate for that.

I will say that I don't like Beast's posts:
beastcharizard wrote:UNVOTE:

Fine, let me get to this later then.

Still probably going to vote BBT but let me at least have time to make up a reason instead of stating the actual one.

beastcharizard wrote:I am not voting based of any reads. I am voting based on what would have been the vengeful kill since we were so obviously going to be voting copper yesterday. This is the only fair way in my mind to get the game back on track and for it to not leave a weird taste in my mouth.

So this is a principle vote.

My reads have all been spelled out earlier though and BBT was part of the scum list with copper.

Also, I have a surefire LYLO strategy so town will win if I am alive at LYLO.

Wanting to "honor" copper's wishes as a reason to lynch is pretty scummy to me. You should be playing to your win condition, not to some sense of trying to balance out a mistake from the mod. The mod has determined that removing the slot for the game was the most fair to all sides. That was the decision, now continue playing the game.

The problem I have with this is if BBT and Beast are both scum, if he is bussing, he is not doing so in a way that would give him towncred, which seems a fairly strange way to do it.
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Post Post #1839 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:55 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Can people stop voting me based on set-up spec and start voting people for, you know, being scum?

You're all gonna look so fucking dumb if it turns out to be the 5% set-up or whatever it was. Well, town will look dumb, scum will be laughing their asses off.
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Post Post #1840 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:56 am

Post by Titus »

@Killa, no. That's not how the setup works. I am Vig or SK to anyone understanding the setup mechanics. The JOAT gets to make the mafia kill untrackable/unblockable with their abilities only if they are doing the kill. The question is, is there a serial killer who was blocked somehow.


TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer


We know the top three are out, because they match to 0, 1 and 2 PRs flipping respectively. If we had four of a category then we could have fewer PRs than letters but we don't under any plausible theory.

TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)

This setup is impossible because it requires three PR claims only. Two deaths would not occur in this setup, because that would confirm me as PR number four. Four PRs cannot exist in a 4 T setup. I cannot be SK under this theory because there is no SK. Thus, this setup is impossible.

TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

This is Four PR setup. This is the setup you would go with if you thought either

I am an honest vig and BOTH BBT/Vettrock are lying.

If you mistakenly though I was lying as SK and one of BBT/Vettrock was telling the truth, but not both.

TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

This is 5 PRs. This setup exists if there is no SK and two of me/BBT/Vezok are telling the truth.

T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

This is 6 PRs. That's if me/BBT/Vettock are all honest.

0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

This setup only exists if there is a lying VT. Given that's very unlikely, I'm discarding it.
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Post Post #1841 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:30 am

Post by Aneninen »

I'm modifying my previous post () about the setup.


The known flips are:
I, P (and a T)
I, P, K (and a T)
The known claims are: T, H, K,
K

There were two Nightkills.

Possibilities


(1) TTTTTTT, TTTTTT and TTTTT are
impossible
.

(3) TTTT
is
possible
but
only if
three claims are fake.
Not possible anymore.

(4) TTT (the probability of this Setup is also 27.3%) is
possible if

– (4.1) Titus is faking and he's SK
and
one of the other claims is fake too (either BBT or Vettrock is scum, but not both)
– (4.2) Titus is telling the truth
and
one of the Nightkills failed/doubled, both BBT and Vettrock are scum – so, we still can't rule out this!
– (4.3) Titus is faking and he's Mafia
and
one of the Nightkills failed/doubled
and
either BBT or Vettrock is scum but not both

(5) TT (the probability of this Setup is 16.4%) is
possible if
Titus's claim is real
and
one of the other claims is fake, so either BBT or Vettrock is scum. There's no SK in this Setup. BBT's claim is real, Penguin is town, so all of these players are scum: Beast, Heartless, Mastin, Wicked.

In case of (4), there are two scums between BBT, Vettrock and Titus. Two scums between Beast, Heartless, Mastin, Wicked (plus, in theory, Penguin and Aneninen) If we lynch Vettrock or BBT, it's 66.67% that we lynch scum. If we lynch someone else, it's 40%. (By calculating these numbers I'm ignoring the possibility of a scum-Penguin, because he can be scum only together with BBT and I'm too lazy to calculate the probability of that. However, only for the correct mathematic, I'm not ignoring myself. I'm town but if we consider
only
the mathematical chances, the probability of a scum-Aneninen is the same as the probability of a scum-Beast/Heartless/Mastin/Wicked.)

In case of (5), either BBT or Vettrock is scum (but not both). Lynching one of them is an 50% possibility for lynching a scum. There are two scums between the other players. Lynching any of those gives an 40% chance for lynching a scum.

In case of (6), lynching BBT or Vettrock gives 0% for a scumlynch. Lynching anyone else gives 80%!!!

These are the
only
possibilities. In this case, the percentages of the setups are to be summarized and considered 100%. Namely, 27.3 + 16.4 + 5.5 = 49.2 = 100%
The chance of (4) is 55.5%
The chance of (5) is 33.3%
The chance of (6) is 11.2%.

Let's multiply these chances with the scumlynch possibilities.
Vettrock or BBT: 0.6667×0.55 = 0.3667 ; 0.5×0.333 = 0.165 ; 0.0×0.112 = 0.
Sum:
: 0.3667+0.165+0=0.5317 =
53.17%

Someone else (excluding Titus and Penguin): 0.4×0.555 = 0.222 ; 0.4×0.333 = 0.1332 ; 0.8×0.112 = 0.09
Sum:
0.222+0.1332+0.09=0.4452 =
44.52%


So, in theory, it's more likely by 8.65% that we lynch scum if we choose between Vettrock or BBT.
In practice, that difference is not significant enough to rule out every possible lynch Today, apart from that two players.

________

Post-edit. I know that some of you were doing the same Setup speculation, eg. Titus in the post above (yes, I've just got Ninja-ed.) But, as far as I know, noone has calculated the exact numbers before.
So, point it out if I've made a mistake about my calculations.
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Post Post #1842 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:32 am

Post by vettrock »

BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Can people stop voting me based on set-up spec and start voting people for, you know, being scum?

You're all gonna look so fucking dumb if it turns out to be the 5% set-up or whatever it was. Well, town will look dumb, scum will be laughing their asses off.

Setup spec frames the probabilities, and what is impossible. We need to eliminate all of the cases where it is impossible. We can look at improbable cases with a eye for who we think is scummy. I think a probable case with a scum read should be look at above a improbable case with a scum read. If it was an improbable case with a townread vs. a probable case with a scum read, we have to evaluate.

I think we have a fair amount of people that have a scum read on you and the setup spec just confirms it.
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Post Post #1843 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 11:47 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Town gonna look stupid and I WILL laugh at you all for it. Seriously. Then, I'll be annoyed for stopping playing the game and going off of probability.

Nobody has explained their scum-read on me. Except BC, and that was awful.
Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.
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Post Post #1844 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:50 pm

Post by killapenwin »

vettrock wrote:
killapenwin wrote:Doesn't explain why there were 2 Night kills?

killapenwin wrote:Bit of a newb question but if there is a mafia JOAT can they use 1 NK alongside another mafia member?

The mafia get one NK, the other NK is either the Town Vigilante (Assuming Titus is telling the truth), or a serial killer. The JOAT does not allow any additional kill.

We cannot have:
IIPKHTT since there is no way for a second kill on N1. If BBT is telling the truth, Titus must be telling the truth as well and is not the serial killer.



This is what I don't understand, why isn't IIPKHTT possible? It has 1 K with a claimed night 1 kill, it's not odd so there isn't a SK. Scum will have targeted 1 person that night meaning 1 vig+1 mafia = 2 night kills?
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Post Post #1845 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 1:01 pm

Post by killapenwin »

scratch that I just looked at JK++ setup on wiki if titus is vigi then there has to be 2K
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Post Post #1846 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 1:13 pm

Post by killapenwin »

I would still much rather lynch BC than BBT and I am not sure why we are making life easy for scum tunnelling potential PR's.
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Post Post #1847 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:00 pm

Post by vettrock »

Aneninen wrote:I'm modifying my previous post () about the setup.


The known flips are:
I, P (and a T)
I, P, K (and a T)
The known claims are: T, H, K,
K

There were two Nightkills.

Possibilities


(1) TTTTTTT, TTTTTT and TTTTT are
impossible
.

(3) TTTT
is
possible
but
only if
three claims are fake.
Not possible anymore.

(4) TTT (the probability of this Setup is also 27.3%) is
possible if

– (4.1) Titus is faking and he's SK
and
one of the other claims is fake too (either BBT or Vettrock is scum, but not both)
– (4.2) Titus is telling the truth
and
one of the Nightkills failed/doubled, both BBT and Vettrock are scum – so, we still can't rule out this!
– (4.3) Titus is faking and he's Mafia
and
one of the Nightkills failed/doubled
and
either BBT or Vettrock is scum but not both

(5) TT (the probability of this Setup is 16.4%) is
possible if
Titus's claim is real
and
one of the other claims is fake, so either BBT or Vettrock is scum. There's no SK in this Setup. BBT's claim is real, Penguin is town, so all of these players are scum: Beast, Heartless, Mastin, Wicked.

In case of (4), there are two scums between BBT, Vettrock and Titus. Two scums between Beast, Heartless, Mastin, Wicked (plus, in theory, Penguin and Aneninen) If we lynch Vettrock or BBT, it's 66.67% that we lynch scum. If we lynch someone else, it's 40%. (By calculating these numbers I'm ignoring the possibility of a scum-Penguin, because he can be scum only together with BBT and I'm too lazy to calculate the probability of that. However, only for the correct mathematic, I'm not ignoring myself. I'm town but if we consider
only
the mathematical chances, the probability of a scum-Aneninen is the same as the probability of a scum-Beast/Heartless/Mastin/Wicked.)

In case of (5), either BBT or Vettrock is scum (but not both). Lynching one of them is an 50% possibility for lynching a scum. There are two scums between the other players. Lynching any of those gives an 40% chance for lynching a scum.

In case of (6), lynching BBT or Vettrock gives 0% for a scumlynch. Lynching anyone else gives 80%!!!

These are the
only
possibilities. In this case, the percentages of the setups are to be summarized and considered 100%. Namely, 27.3 + 16.4 + 5.5 = 49.2 = 100%
The chance of (4) is 55.5%
The chance of (5) is 33.3%
The chance of (6) is 11.2%.

Let's multiply these chances with the scumlynch possibilities.
Vettrock or BBT: 0.6667×0.55 = 0.3667 ; 0.5×0.333 = 0.165 ; 0.0×0.112 = 0.
Sum:
: 0.3667+0.165+0=0.5317 =
53.17%

Someone else (excluding Titus and Penguin): 0.4×0.555 = 0.222 ; 0.4×0.333 = 0.1332 ; 0.8×0.112 = 0.09
Sum:
0.222+0.1332+0.09=0.4452 =
44.52%


So, in theory, it's more likely by 8.65% that we lynch scum if we choose between Vettrock or BBT.
In practice, that difference is not significant enough to rule out every possible lynch Today, apart from that two players.

________

Post-edit. I know that some of you were doing the same Setup speculation, eg. Titus in the post above (yes, I've just got Ninja-ed.) But, as far as I know, noone has calculated the exact numbers before.
So, point it out if I've made a mistake about my calculations.


One additional factor, is that in order for BBT and I to both be town, you have to account for the lack of three kills on N1.(4.2) I don't know what the probability would be, but I think the probability for that to have happened, is on the smaller side, although still very possible.
I don't see (4.3) as very likely either as I explained before, if he is scum, it was not a smart move to claim vig in a game with a serial killer, as the serial killer will know it is false. I think we can consider Titus SK or Town, but not scum.

In case 5 you assume Killa is town because BBT claim is real. The same is not true, if my claim is real.
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Post Post #1848 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:40 pm

Post by Wickedestjr »

Computer's messed up, not working, wouldn't restart, no idea why maybe I'll get it fixed tomorrow so I can do the crapload of work I have. Not posting tonight.
might have limited access next two days
sorry
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Post Post #1849 (ISO) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:41 pm

Post by Wickedestjr »

It's a frickin five month old MacBook this is frustrating
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