UnCouTh mAfia - [UnCouTh eNding]

[Titus]

@fferylt, Regarding townreading me...whatever. I can't make a townread to save myself.

The trajectories and bullshit is how scum try to wifom. The only way Boo or NS could be scum is if F16 deliberately got himself modkilled to throw off wagon analysis.

My analysis does not need post based trajectories. It never has. Those bog me down in politics and in fighting. Those only get applied to the facts themselves. Behavioral analysis is my weakest point. So I come up with methods where I do not need it.

[fferyllt]

And yet you agreed with this post in a mafia discussion thread about vca.

Subject: VCA Stats

VCA is basically just making arbitrary groupings and divining scum from it.

that's not at all what VCA is...

VCA involves looking at timing, reasoning, momentum, placement, associations, and tone of the votes/vote posts, among several other factors, as well as applying those factors to the non-votes in order to get a better picture of what occurred. It's not just "oh hey X voted Y so X must be scum..."

This.

[Titus]

Right. That's accurate generally. I didn't go through the checklist and say which were useful and which weren't. Timing is. That's the whole looking at who is voting and when. Associations are again derived through long term. I even used tone a bit when commenting with TBone earlier due to his whitenighting on NS.

Reasoning is basically an outlet for charisma. So that one I don't use. Scum always have a reason not to bus.

Placement is actually a much weaker factor.

[fferyllt]

I'm losing interest in this discussion because you're one of the closest things to a mafia polar opposite I've ever encountered and I can only take so many headdesks in a game day.

So, I want to throw this out there about NS. He's hammered 2 players without posting intent or making sure they had a chance to claim.

In a game where we knew there was at least one more mason somewhere in the player list. A strong argument can be made that muffin had telegraphed he was vanilla town in post 888, but there was nothing like that in BRantz' final posts.

That's a pretty decent blitz play moving off the line of scrimmage. If BRAntz had flipped town we'd be all over that. But, at the same time, I don't like that NS has quickhammered twice in this game. And that's why NS is the player I'd be looking at in lylo if this game doesn't end before then.

CDB

where'd you go? Are you finished with this game? 3 and a half days ago you said you'd have your reads list finished in 24 hours.

[Untrod Tripod]

I would argue that since we have lynches to burn, NS is a good LOLIDK lynch if we find that we're out of ideas

[AngryPidgeon]

because let's be real here

come on girl. Christopher Nolan writes more believable narratives

Hey my lips are quivering here. I like Nolan movies.

I agree that vca is pretty out the window this game. It's fairly clear to me that scum have been playing a bit creatively this game. Like that early wagon on f16.

[AngryPidgeon]

Ffery, which statement do you disagree with?

1) 3 scum on F16 is ridiculous when other wagons were also at 4. Thus NS and Bookitty are clear.
2) You are a mason and thus clear.
3) AP leading a lynch on Brantz strongly clears him but not confirmed.
4) My leading ika lynch means the same boat.

After that list, it's CDB and UT who are left trying to look town like horses trying to look like zebras.

I strongly disagree with the first assertion? F16 was acting like a scummy butt and scum was clearly just doing whatever they wanted. The fact that two scum were seen lolwagoning F16 should make you think that the entire thing is deliberate and not to be read into for risk of falling into a trap.

I more or less agree with the other points.

As near as I can tell your vca is shallow. You've said nothing about the trajectories leading to where players were positionally and temporally on wagons.

Also, this. Of all the places to look for information, an early game RVS-ish troll wagon on a guy who was acting rather blatantly scummy is not one of them.

@fferyllt: What did you and Nacho think about notscience? I loosely feel town from the slot but I've still never actually encountered him-scum before. I think he still has the most readable posts in the thread for that slot, which is unfortunate. My throat is getting itchy just thinking about that.

Scum always have a reason not to bus.

What does this even mean? What reason?

You have to approach the game realizing that some people KNOW they are being analyzed and will do seemingly random things to avoid getting caught. Like bus spontaneously. I'm not saying that you can't read into actions or votes ever, I'm saying that using a singular troll wagon to divine 2 townreads from is pretty shortsighted.

[fferyllt]

@fferyllt: What did you and Nacho think about notscience? I loosely feel town from the slot but I've still never actually encountered him-scum before. I think he still has the most readable posts in the thread for that slot, which is unfortunate. My throat is getting itchy just thinking about that.

We didn't talk a whole lot about notsci in the mason thread because we both thought he was town. Nacho wanted to lynch CDB first because he thought UT's replace-in looked townish and because he still had the notsci-town vibe going.

Several behaviors I think are town markers were present. A few markers I like to see from him weren't present.

However, notsci has a very easy formula wrt to his interactions with nacho or me that he can follow when he's scum and I at least won't look beyond that formula until later in the game, and he didn't follow that formula at all.

On day 1 while notsci was in the game, I was ascribing some of TSO's posts to notsci because their avatars confused me for reasons I still can't really fathom. There may be some lingering halo effect to my notsci read because of that, but I don't think so.

Nacho's preferred lynch order was CDB-UT-NS.

Right now, I'm kinda feeling like I'd prefer CDB-NS-UT (with a huge honking instant replay review of titus if we get to that point).

One thing that I'm really not able to easily judge is the way NS had both nacho and me in his townpile from fairly early on day 1. I thought that Nacho was intentionally playing ambiguously at first, and although I felt like I was playing very confidently town, that's an internal judgment that I know doesn't always match external perceptions. There have been games were I felt like my play exuded eau de town on day 1 and players I thought could read me fairly well weren't at all sure about me. But, once TSO flipped, I could see someone discerning I was his mason partner from our early interactions. Nacho and TSO did the same thing though I don't think it was quite as obvious.

Neither of us are reputed to be all that easy to read, and Nacho in particular tends to pick up bonus paranoia points for continuing to breathe.

So, that long-lived townread from NS worries me a tad.

These long posts. I need a beer.

[AngryPidgeon]

Ok, well you are making me feel better about my townfeels on that slot.

My stomach was suffering from some indigestion over NotS's interactions with me, but almost always generally get that. I think what he did mimicked his town interactions with me a lot so if hes scum then he was playing it pretty well.

What do you think of CDB's first 3 posts of the game? I just find it interesting that he vote hopped that much and 2 of them were on flipped scum. I originally thought the sequence looked town.

I'm a little wary of CDB's comments that seem for the purpose of looking town. His comments about "This speech impediment is changing my playstyle in ways I couldn't have forseen" seems town to me on the surface, but its kind of a superficial thing to comment on and that irks me a little bit. The bit about being lynched before lylo was too, but I guess some people actually say that sort of stuff as town.. I wish he were actually here and doing things like he seemed to imply he wanted to be doing if going down Today.

[AngryPidgeon]

Titus, your thoughts on the matter are encouraged too. I trust you don't need me to take a look at your liver first?

[fferyllt]

I thought his early posts looked town at the time, and I felt like I could see his reasoning for vote changing and for most if not all his stances during the first half of day 1.

At the point where he switched from you to ika, you had just been pushed to 5 votes by tiershift, and f-16 was sitting at 4 votes. On page 3, I think.

The thing about the post restriction at the time struck me as town because I was still getting a feel for how I wanted to play with my own post restriction several pages later. On the other hand, of all the things to comment on, a comment about how it affected his own posting - and only that - feels a little premature and a little self-conscious, maybe. Nothing about the actual game-affecting aspects of everyone's restrictions.

I'm wondering right now how the use of PRs in lieu of content is going to map to player alignments when the game is over.

Nothing wrong with the occasional razzle dazzle once the ball is snapped. Maybe.

[Titus]

@AP, Stop expanding the lynch pool. You know my town pools are good.

Unless you argue F16 deliberately self imploded like a starfish regenerating after a bomb, Boo and NS are town.

CDB and UT are the only acceptable lynches.

[fferyllt]

No.

You're not the quarterback. You're not calling all the plays.

[AngryPidgeon]

@AP, Stop expanding the lynch pool. You know my town pools are good.

Oh I'm sorry.

I'm not the one hedging a scumread on me should everyone's favorite top 2 lurkers flip town.

My gall bladder can even tell that that is whack.

Ffery herself said that she thought F16 was parodying his own scum play, so yes I do sort of think he imploded a little bit with some amount of intention about it.

I don't see how you can see 2 scum on his RVS wagon and think that there clearly can't be anymore.

--

@Ffery: What do you mean by:

I'm wondering right now how the use of PRs in lieu of content is going to map to player alignments when the game is over.

We've seen 3 flipped scum, so I'd reason that any conclusions you want to make about that could potentially be made now.

As of right now, I think I don't want to lynch UT. I will regret this forever and ever if he flips scum. His play upon replacing in was bound to draw attention to him if hes scum, and I can kind of understand that all coming from a town mindset. I think Notty was town although thats mostly a gut read, but hearing you/Nacho's opinion on it makes me a bit more confident in it even if you aren't totally there .

I'm going to start looking at the other 3. BooKitty and NS worry me more based on interactions with F-16/BRantz and CDB just looks divey to me, connections aside. Im mostly concerned that he made a thing about how he was going to put effort in and wanted time to help since he was going to be lynched Today. After coughing up one heavily formatted post containing random snippets on everyone, hes vanished again. Could also see his interactions with me about him/Titus being a caught for the wrong reasons thing.

[AngryPidgeon]

I would argue that since we have lynches to burn, NS is a good LOLIDK lynch if we find that we're out of ideas

This, for instance, looks like something I'd expect town to say more than scum since scum may censor themselves even if they believe that.

His tongue is flowing freely here.

[fferyllt]

I'm wondering right now how the use of PRs in lieu of content is going to map to player alignments when the game is over.

I think that brantz and f-16 put content into their posts. Not tons, but it was there. f-16's play was initially high volume without saying much, just pushing/proxying to nacho.

ika was straight up zero-content like he didn't want the refs to notice a 12th man on the field.

So, for the most part, players I was griping about letting their posting restrictions obscure their play have flipped town.

[Titus]

@AP You just literally saw my townblock be flawless in World of Warcraft mafia. Now you are doubting me here. Why? What do you gain by constantly saying I suck when that's proven false.

I rarely 180 on a read when said player is alive. There's a reason for that.

Saying NS is scum is like trying to sell me a flying pig outside of a tv commercial. It ain't happening.

The only way theoretically NS could be scum is if you are scum as well. Nacho flipped town and the only time my vca clears have been wrong is when scum were wagoned against each other.

[AngryPidgeon]

@AP You just literally saw my townblock be flawless in World of Warcraft mafia. Now you are doubting me here. Why? What do you gain by constantly saying I suck when that's proven false.

I don't recall saying that you suck, and I certainly am not going to trust you specifically off your accuracy in one game I was in with you.

I'm saying that I feel differently about that early wagon. I don't trust it, I think its a bad thing to base reads off of, and I see that you are basing 2 reads on it. This has nothing to do with you and everything to do with me not liking the source of what comes down to about half of your reads at this point.

This just isn't sitting well in my stomach.

[Nobody Special]

Can you BELIEVE that my groom-to-be wants us to have recorded music instead of live band? At my WEDDING??? Let's hope he lives long enough to marry me. Argh.


I would still like to see AP lynched, but I'll go with a wagon with actual votes for now.

VOTE: Untrod Tripod

[Bookitty]

I am in the process of washing and/or dry-cleaning all of my clothes, so all I have is this cocoa-stained bathrobe. Pardon my dishabille.

@MOD:

Could we please have a very painful electric cattle prod applied to ChannelDelibird, please?

I don't believe I'm going to be voting Untrod Tripod today. What do you think of CDB, Nobody Special?

[Nobody Special]

(sigh) I am so tired of dealing with all the "staff" who are supposed to be "helping" me get my wedding planned. Useless.


I think CDB is .....barely here? Yes, he has (in number) more posts than I, but his presence has not at all made an impression on me. I also have no memorable experience with him as far as mafia, so there's that.

I will go back and read his iso, but it won't happen for a day or two.


Could I ask why you don't want to vote UT?

[Bookitty]

I don't want to spill my Campbell's Chicken and Stars soup all over this bathrobe because it's the last semi-clean thing I have left to wear.

I've said before, NS, that I don't think UT is scum. I think he's town. Thus I don't want to vote him because that would be against my wincon, which I pledged to adhere to when I joined this game. I don't want to go back on my word and play against my wincon.

Why do you think UT is scum?

[ChannelDelibird]

Anticipating my prod, been on a couch for two days thinking of almost everything other than this game. My read will probably be finished tomorrow; I can remember being put off by Titus's response to my latest so I'll try to address that in the meantime.

[AngryPidgeon]

We're you abducted by Baron Happlebap, CDB?

My intestines are quivering with anticipation over your next post.

I'm still ok with my vote. Titus is making me insane though.

[AngryPidgeon]

Were*

My cellphone makes posting so difficult. I'm thinking my stomach will just give up before this game ends.