We Didn't Playtest This | Game over, everyone loses

[Titus]

@ActionDan, Am I wrong in sensing a similiarity between BB and Narn that is similar to BB and Young and Beautiful in InuYasha?

[Drixx]

@Titus - VCA is a sorting tool. That's it. It helps you organize data and allows you to think through things and assign probabilities. It can be defeated by clever scum or even just scum who do a good job of pretending to be town when it comes to votes and such. What actually catches scum isn't VCA itself ... it's whatever the person doing the VCA uses the sorting tool for. The same vote counts can be interpreted several different ways, which is why I said context (when and why a vote is placed) and PoE are stronger tools.

There seems to be little reason to go any further round and round about this. I just don't like it when people abuse probability by taking large scale probabilistic conclusions and trying to apply them to individual cases. Anyone who has had a basic statistics class knows that it simply doesn't work that way.

[Drixx]

Since it was requested:

VOTE: Lucian

After it is explained why I was asked to do that, I'll likely unvote until I see an actual reason to use my vote.

[God of Power Outlets]

@ActionDan, Am I wrong in sensing a similiarity between BB and Narn that is similar to BB and Young and Beautiful in InuYasha?

And you want to leave alive/ignore players because of their roleclaim... . You were there...

[copper223]

Consider it how you like Drixx, it still gives you a framework with which to analyze what has happened and experience has showed tendencies in how scum behaves that it may highlight, the fact it doesn't work all the time or that scum can play around it doesn't make it useless, just as a discussion and read focus it's well worth the investment even if there was nothing behind it.

[Titus]

@ActionDan, Am I wrong in sensing a similiarity between BB and Narn that is similar to BB and Young and Beautiful in InuYasha?

And you want to leave alive/ignore players because of their roleclaim... . You were there...

Who do you think I am wanting to keep alive because of their role?

[Drixx]

Consider it how you like Drixx, it still gives you a framework with which to analyze what has happened and experience has showed tendencies in how scum behaves that it may highlight, the fact it doesn't work all the time or that scum can play around it doesn't make it useless, just as a discussion and read focus it's well worth the investment even if there was nothing behind it.

This is a really fancy way for saying that it's a sorting tool ... which is how I view it. It's even a good sorting tool in this context. But that's all it does: sort. The analysis is a separate thing and is helped by context and PoE and usually a person's assumptions about what scum is more likely to have done or not to have done.

Moving on from theory ... still curious as to why Lucian appears to know which kill as redirected (presuming that claim is true). Running on low sleep so can someone tell me if Lucian just hard slipped or if I missed something?

[LucianRoy]

Wow, this went down hill quickly.
Looks like I'm going to have to shoot someone today.
I can do the "who wants who to die" thing again, but I'm just going to kill whoever I scumread.
Wash, rinse, repeat.

I'll have to re-read a good portion of the game to get my feet solidly grounded, though.

[Drixx]

Or you could maybe just answer the question instead of throwing a pity party?

[Titus]

If you are still lost after your reread, the protown thing is to kill one of the people wagoned yesterday (PV or Drixx). That would help us learn if those wagons changing fast were in defense of a buddy or not.

@Drixx not getting into a theory debate with you.

[Drixx]

Titus: You've been around for years longer than I. If you have found some valuable way to apply large scale observations, and you have had statistically significant success with it, then it follows that explaining such would help everyone, including the skeptical me.

[BBmolla]

@ActionDan, Am I wrong in sensing a similiarity between BB and Narn that is similar to BB and Young and Beautiful in InuYasha?

I actually thought 3 shot friendly neighbor was a good claim

So no.

[BBmolla]

Not to mention my play here is not like my play there at all

[LucianRoy]

Here's the revised edition:
The other mafia faction made their direct Nk on Marquis, and the volcano dudes were redirected from Molla at Marquis.

This looks a LOT like a scum slip. How on earth could you know which faction targeted Marquis, or even if a re-direct happened, unless you were on the team that got re-directed? I re-read all of today to see if there was some obscure bit of info that could lead to this conclusion, and I don't see it. You appear to know things you can't possibly know Lucian.

FoS Lucian

@Titus - You should probably link to the VCA thread. Your description of VCA and how it is applied is lacking a lot. (For the record, I have a very LOW view of VCA. I think it is, at best, a weak sorting tool. Large scale probability

does not

apply to individual situations, and PoE plus context will get you a lot farther than thinking about all the possible things VCA might be showing).

Molla said he knew the volcano faction's name, but I thought that ice/marquis had made that claim. I then forgot he was the neighbour cop, and I replaced that with him being a one-sided factional cop. Thus, I believed the volcano people would kill him for being their personal cop.

My reason sounds like BS.

[Titus]

Titus: You've been around for years longer than I. If you have found some valuable way to apply large scale observations, and you have had statistically significant success with it, then it follows that explaining such would help everyone, including the skeptical me.

Agreed.

There's a few premises I need to be statisically significant though

1: A scum flip. If multiball, a flip from each faction (although InuYasha shows this is not always the case).
2: At least 4 days of flips.
3: [Redacted] but I will indicate its possibility with my vca if that is possible.

[Titus]

@ActionDan, Am I wrong in sensing a similiarity between BB and Narn that is similar to BB and Young and Beautiful in InuYasha?

I actually thought 3 shot friendly neighbor was a good claim

So no.

That's the rub. It was. YnB used you to confirm her. Narnian "confirms" you.

[LucianRoy]

If you are still lost after your reread, the protown thing is to kill one of the people wagoned yesterday (PV or Drixx). That would help us learn if those wagons changing fast were in defense of a buddy or not.

That's what I was thinking.
I still have to do a thorough re-read, but I don't have time for it right now.
Well, we've still got 13 days, so it's all good.

[BBmolla]

How does it "confirm" me

[Bulbasaur Commonwealth]

only one kill?

did anyone roleblock anyone?

maybe everyone should hypoclaim roleblocker, and who they wouldve roleblocked if they were a RBer?

Stop rolefishing.

Jackel98, bless his soul, is clearly a new player learning the ropes and if he had told us about his full role, only an insane person would have killed him before D2 when his results are made public, I expect most of the other players to have an understanding of how to win for their alignment, so Marquis claiming to be a neighborhood daycop D1, knowing he is likely going to be NKed, when he is really something else entirely is not something I would expect, the logical assumption is to believe what he said as town.

Wow. Are you really shifting the blame of yesterday's lynch onto the lynchee? Congratulations! You just completed the scummy trifecta, which also includes making a show about how "right" you were in your reads, particularly your town ones, and in a play that focuses on positioning over scumhunting. Here's your prize:

Vote Copper223

Hey Mollie! I'm here and all caught up now. Where are you?

-Bulbasaur

[Titus]

How does it "confirm" me

If a faction shot you, you are 99.9% likely not to be a member of said faction. Xmen is the only game where I have seen otherwise.

[Ozgin]

Well, I'm glad I survived.

VOTE: Pirate Ika

Will reason soon.

[Cerberus v666]

copper: Campaign of misinformation? Anti-town? Since when is stating perfectly logical conclusions for the sake of being thorough anti-town?

Given that nobody else came forward as a neighbor, it's actually perfectly reasonable to assume that he was himself in a neighborhood. My role name does not include the word neighbor in it, so the fact that it wasn't in his doesn't mean he wasn't in a neighborhood himself. I don't really see any reason why it's more logical for him to be a cop who chose to out himself D1, than it is for him to be a neighbor to a cop playing intelligently and moving to keep them safe. There's also the little fallacy in what you're saying there...how can we believe what he said as town, when we have PROOF that at least one thing he said as town was a lie? Town shouldn't lie except for the purpose of deceiving scum, finding scum, and protecting powerful roles. If he lied about the name of his role, he had a reason.

Narninian: That was a terrible play. Attempting to save a cops life, especially one who can conftown TWO people with a single investigation, is WAY better than preserving Molla's night skip. It's so bad, in fact, that I don't think you could be scum and make that claim, especially with the knowledge that a tracker is dead, so you have even less reason to justify your targeting.

However, to continue my "campaign of misinformation" by speculating on other options. If the mods allow scum Narninian to both send in the kill AND use whatever power his role has, he could be preemptively defending himself against an eventual Facebooking by copper by creating a narrative which would justify him targeting two people, one of whom dies.

See the waffling copper? Back and forth, always multiple explanations for everything. This game isn't simple, and I won't treat it as such.

[Bulbasaur Commonwealth]

Another possibility: ChriVi and myself are scum and have day talk, and came up with the pseudo mason play that requires confirmation with the intention of killing off Marquis to prevent being found out. Seems like a weird line to take given the absence of pressure and likelihood of other investigative roles existing, but it is a possibility.

Well, you're either asking this and banking on the sheer audacity of merely mentioning the possibility overruling the scummy notion of this, or you're honestly presenting a viable alternative to what happened.

I...have yet to figure out which right now.

1. Scum can't coordinate the kills and are probably against each other, based on what Drixx said I assume with have werewolves and a second faction, I assume mafia goven the usual factions, werewolves probably eviscerate.

Or they simply wanted to kill the one person who could conftown two people and thought the other team and/or the SK wouldn't do it?

I'm surprised at the certainty you have at this.

@All, anyone realize Marquis did not flip cop though?

No, but if I'm understanding the role correctly in the context of his claim, he at least would've and should've been able to join cerb and Chrivi's neighborhood. I'm not sure if the cop part was either an exaggeration of what he'd be able to do (plausible), fake (not likely), or what went hand-in-hand with joining the neighborhood (also plausible).

Unless I'm completely misunderstanding when he gets his info/access, he should have been in the 'hood last night. I trust cerb or Chrivi will confirm this...eventually. (I personally see no reason to lie about it because it seemed fairly obvious that Marquis was going to target cerb yesterday).

I agree with Titus's point 3 in the above quoted post, btw. I also highly suggest (short of outright demanding) that Lucian shoots today. I (or at least the Ivy head) refuse to let that shot exist past D3 or go into any possible MyLo like BRantz's ability.

If there is a Werewolf, it's a singular entity

2 scum1/2 scum2/2 werewolf/1 possible SK doesn't seem that implausible for a 26p?

Ok, in order to determine which player is in which game, I would like each player to put whether their flip would be something found in the wiki.

Jackal would be found in the wiki (even though I cannot find the public modifier). New kid on the block cannot be found in the wiki.

I personally see absolutely no point to this.

I am happy to be tested whenever you all would like me too for my second shot.

This is my suggestion (to be ignored if something better comes up or has already been suggested by the time I finish)

We will play this day as normal. However, when a lynch is about to be reached, BRantz will remove himself from the game (or will do so as close to 12-24 hours prior to deadline as possible), and then the lynch will proceed as normal.

This should ensure that we get the most of BRantz's time here and ensure that his shot is used up before the day is over.

Vote: Titus

This is a stupid vote.

pedit: I don't like that logic Lucian. For an SK to decide not to kill would require them to think that they are "safe" in a long game. With the amount of suspicion that has been thrown around on different people this game I would be surprised if anyone felt that safe.

There's suspicion and

suspicion

.

Sure, people have had their names bandied about as possible scumspects, but IMO not everyone has been truly pressured to the point where they-as-hypo-SK would feel the need to shoot. And those that may have been in the hot seat may not have felt like such by day's end, so who's to say that those who were pressured in the first, say, 30 pages, felt the same way by the time we lynched?

[Cerberus v666]

Another possibility: ChriVi and myself are scum and have day talk, and came up with the pseudo mason play that requires confirmation with the intention of killing off Marquis to prevent being found out. Seems like a weird line to take given the absence of pressure and likelihood of other investigative roles existing, but it is a possibility.

Well, you're either asking this and banking on the sheer audacity of merely mentioning the possibility overruling the scummy notion of this, or you're honestly presenting a viable alternative to what happened.

I...have yet to figure out which right now.

@All, anyone realize Marquis did not flip cop though?

No, but if I'm understanding the role correctly in the context of his claim, he at least would've and should've been able to join cerb and Chrivi's neighborhood. I'm not sure if the cop part was either an exaggeration of what he'd be able to do (plausible), fake (not likely), or what went hand-in-hand with joining the neighborhood (also plausible).

Unless I'm completely misunderstanding when he gets his info/access, he should have been in the 'hood last night. I trust cerb or Chrivi will confirm this...eventually. (I personally see no reason to lie about it because it seemed fairly obvious that Marquis was going to target cerb yesterday).

I agree with Titus's point 3 in the above quoted post, btw. I also highly suggest (short of outright demanding) that Lucian shoots today. I (or at least the Ivy head) refuse to let that shot exist past D3 or go into any possible MyLo like BRantz's ability.

I am happy to be tested whenever you all would like me too for my second shot.

This is my suggestion (to be ignored if something better comes up or has already been suggested by the time I finish)

We will play this day as normal. However, when a lynch is about to be reached, BRantz will remove himself from the game (or will do so as close to 12-24 hours prior to deadline as possible), and then the lynch will proceed as normal.

This should ensure that we get the most of BRantz's time here and ensure that his shot is used up before the day is over.

I'm entertained by your response to my post.

RE: Marquis: He was not in the hood last night, and I did not consider that possibility at all. What made you consider it? The way you mention it makes it feel like you had some way of knowing what his role did. It's certainly relevant given the flavor of his role name, but I haven't seen anything else in thread to prompt that line of thought.

Lucian should definitely shoot someone. BRantz should definitely participate in today as usual, and use his power at some point prior to lynch.

[deathfisaro]

@Bulbasaur: Jackel DID claim plain vanilla tracker. 1553 1569 1599. He did hint Public Tracker in 1689 but never actually admitted it.
So with all the evidence in your face, are you still saying as town investigator being in a highly likely lynch situation not honestly full claiming and eating the lynch was a pro-town good play?

@Narninian: I can see why you drove the shot to Marquis, but because Marquis got shot twice you kinda jumped to the conclusion that one faction shot Marquis and the other shot Molla. But both factions could have shot Marquis, because redirector doesn't necessarily get "failed" even if you flop?

@Chrivi & Cerberus: So entertaining the possibility of both factions targeting Marquis for the fear of each faction's member in the neighbourhood getting investigated, why does outing your neighbours hurt town? Don't you have a separate thread, because you knew Cerberus had 1-way mod conftown info on you before that talk surfaced on this thread. I'm inclined to believe there's scum in the hood and that's why Marquis had to die (although I'm not saying Marquis investigating Cerberus and you two basically becoming confmasons is BS). Finding scum in the small pool of the hood I guess would be easier?

@Titus: You say there's likely no SK and yet you still say "if multiball" when Marquis death had 2 flavours. As for whether my PR can be found on the wiki, half and half.

@Drixx: So are you strictly inferior to AD in terms of PR power? Actually I'll change the question. Why is AD's PR so OP? Cop's limited to neighbourhood, BP's limited to 1 faction, and yet AD is enjoying global protection.
Or you could be SK-immune scum. But what merits the SK to shoot Marquis?

@Ozgin:

Well, I'm glad I survived.

I've said this as scum but never as town, reasons I think is quite obvious.

VOTE: Ozgin