We Didn't Playtest This | Game over, everyone loses

[copper223]

@Drixx
Where are you seeing the vote count problem?

[copper223]

Drixx isn't her partner, unless she hard bussed all day.

mollie hates bussing, which would make the odds of her bussing in multiball nearly 0.

I have seen the pirates buss in multiball from the start of the game.

[Titus]

@Titus
I think Drixx mentioned that PIka was a doublevoter and Bulbasaur picked it up, in Ivy's ongoing effort to buddy up with Drixx as hard as possible, from what I have seen there is no indication of that as the pirates vote on Ozgin was a single vote, Drixx later corrected himself.

So ifno one currently claims a double vote, why are we bothering? This is a distraction which is very anti-town. It also fucks up going wagons.

As someone who relies heavily on wagon analysis, this annoys me.

[Titus]

Vote Count 2.04

Lihin (7)

- Oranje Crush, LucianRoy, Cerberus v666, Drixx, Om of the Nom, Boonskiies, deathfisaro

Oranje Crush (3)

- Toon Fighter, BBmolla, Narninian

Bulbasaur Commonwealth (1)

- VysePresident

Cerberus v666 (1)

- Magua

Not Voting (11)

: ActionDan, ChriVi, PeregrineV, vonflare, Titus, Lihin, copper223, Ozgin, Three-Pronged Trouser God, Bulbasaur Commonwealth

With 23 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-02 10:05:14).

Lihin has been prodded.

Removal of players during the day phase will not reduce the lynch threshold.

This is the post before Drixx started babbling nonsense about doublevoters and asking people to selfvote.

Look who is voted.

Lihin.

Lihin + Drixx.

They are buddies.

[Titus]

Spoiler: Vote Counts

Vote Count 2.01

Oranje Crush (2)

- Narninian, Toon Fighter

LucianRoy (2)

- Om of the Nom, Drixx

Titus (1)

- Three-Pronged Trouser God

copper223 (1)

- Bulbasaur Commonwealth

Pirate Ika (1)

- Ozgin

Ozgin (1)

- deathfisaro

Bulbasaur Commonwealth (1)

- VysePresident

Not Voting (16)

: Pirate Ika, Oranje Crush, ActionDan, ChriVi, Boonskiies, PeregrineV, vonflare, Cerberus v666, BRantz, LucianRoy, Magua, Titus, Lihin, BBmolla, copper223

With 25 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-02 10:05:14).

@mod: is there a reason we can't have full flips?

Yes, giving full flips would be a significant balance shift that we did not plan for.

I've amended rule I to include the clause in parentheses:

I. This game will use no factions other than what is considered normal (town, mafia, werewolf and serial killer).

Vote Count 2.02

Pirate Ika (4)

- Narninian, Ozgin, Three-Pronged Trouser God, Oranje Crush

LucianRoy (2)

- Om of the Nom, Drixx

Oranje Crush (1)

- Toon Fighter

copper223 (1)

- Bulbasaur Commonwealth

Ozgin (1)

- Pirate Ika

Bulbasaur Commonwealth (1)

- VysePresident

Cerberus v666 (1)

- Magua

Not Voting (14)

: ActionDan, ChriVi, Boonskiies, PeregrineV, vonflare, Cerberus v666, BRantz, LucianRoy, Titus, Lihin, BBmolla, copper223, deathfisaro

With 25 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-02 10:05:14).

Pirate Ika

-

Berlin Undercity Mafia Modified Roleblocker

- Shot through the heart day two.

----------

Vote Count 2.03

LucianRoy (3)

- Om of the Nom, Drixx, Cerberus v666

Oranje Crush (1)

- Toon Fighter

Bulbasaur Commonwealth (1)

- VysePresident

Cerberus v666 (1)

- Magua

Not Voting (18)

: ActionDan, ChriVi, Boonskiies, PeregrineV, vonflare, BRantz, LucianRoy, Titus, Lihin, BBmolla, copper223, deathfisaro, Narninian, Ozgin, Three-Pronged Trouser God, Oranje Crush, Bulbasaur Commonwealth

With 24 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-02 10:05:14).

Vote Count 2.04

Lihin (7)

- Oranje Crush, LucianRoy, Cerberus v666, Drixx, Om of the Nom, Boonskiies, deathfisaro

Oranje Crush (3)

- Toon Fighter, BBmolla, Narninian

Bulbasaur Commonwealth (1)

- VysePresident

Cerberus v666 (1)

- Magua

Not Voting (11)

: ActionDan, ChriVi, PeregrineV, vonflare, Titus, Lihin, copper223, Ozgin, Three-Pronged Trouser God, Bulbasaur Commonwealth

With 23 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-02 10:05:14).

Lihin has been prodded.

Removal of players during the day phase will not reduce the lynch threshold.

Based on the VCs, there's zero foundation for any double voters, much less multiples. Pika votes Ozgin and its one vote.

[copper223]

Not Voting (11): ActionDan, ChriVi, PeregrineV, vonflare, Titus, Lihin, copper223, Ozgin, Three-Pronged Trouser God, Bulbasaur Commonwealth

Those are 10 players and you are not supposed to have a vote, so it should actually read 9.

Also:

With 23 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

23 Votes in play is an unusual way to phrase it.

I see now where Drixx is coming from.

[copper223]

First off though:

@mod: is the votecount quoted above correct?

With BRantz leaving and there being actually 11 players not voting (if you consider him as well) it could just be a typo.

[Titus]

Let's suppose arguendo that there are mysery voters in play, why fish for it? If he actually thought there was a possibility I had destumped, he wouldn't refer to multiple double voters. It would be me, one single double voter. Then, why would he fish to determine if I was no longer a tree stump? What good would come of that? He also claimed Pika flipped double voter. Pika flipped no such thing. Too much knowledge?

The timing is also suspicious as it he suggested for everyone to vote to derail a Lihin wagon.

The only people who benefit from this line of inquiry are scum. It's best to drop it.

[Titus]

Do you think Lihin and Drixx could be buddies?

[copper223]

I think it's possible but not very likely, it really sucks that Berlin Underground Mafia could be a werewolf faction and we don't get that information from the pirates flip.

If they are buddies though then Lihin likely made up his role name to cover for his vote shift on Drixx in a very clever way, and as I said I am leery of all the support coming in to lynch Lihin after Oranje made his case.

[copper223]

I think Bulbasaur is the most likely scum with the pirates, I'll give an in-depth case after the next vote count to satisfy Drixx's request.

I also don't like how Om has dropped off the map after getting FoSed yesterday, leaning more and more scum there, another player that has done nothing and said his usual spiel about not being able to read Copper, something I believe is true for him but also something he only said in the games he was mafia with me as town, is Boon.

I also think we shouldn't just consider the masons and the neighboors as confirmed, I can't escape the notion that if we had a neighborhood day cop that got doublestacked it's likely some of the scum is hiding in the neighborhoods and the number of investigatives and town PR's is getting a bit too unbalanced for my taste, the scummiest player there is Cerberus.

[Titus]

I'm not as leery. They said a 33 percent chance to recall on any given night. The longer they don't remember an ability, the less likely it is they ever will. Sure N1 has roughly a 66 percent chance of not remembering. Not recalling on two nights is roughly 44% likely. Night 3 is roughly thirty percent. Not remembering for five nights is about 20% likely. So if Lihin has no ability by Day 5, it should be fake. They should not be alive that long though.

On the other hand, if scum kill an unknown role, they lose all information as to what it could be. So they really want as many claims out in the open as possible.

[Drixx]

Ok now I have some times for these larges.

First off, can we sort out these vote discrepancies that Drixx claims exist? I'd like everyone to briefly vote themselves so we can check that all is in as should be in the next votecount.

No. There are no discrepancies. Drixx is rolefishing and attempting to dismantle wagons. The number of votes to lynch has always matched the number of players in the game.

Plus it serves as a method to dismantle the wagons.

If this was genuine, Drixx would have pushed at the start of the day.

Okay, now I'm seriously done with your nonsensical and illogical bullshit. Are you really incapable of looking at the vote counts and

doing simple math

?

Each vote count says how many votes are available and how many it takes to lynch.

Post #2410 is the first vote count from today. It lists 25 votes in play, but only 24 players. You can count this for yourself and see. Also, you claim to be a treestump and have no vote, so the first vote count of the day featured 23 players who can vote, but 25 votes. There is two extra votes in there.

In #2871, Ika was confirmed killed by Lucian's shot, and the votes changed to 24 in play, with 23 players still alive.

In #2956, BRantz was removed from the game, via his ability

In #2984, the Votes changed to 23 in play, and 22 players available to vote.

With you claiming to be a treestump without a vote, that leaves us with two extra votes, and we can see via the vote counts that quite a few people have voted and their votes all have only counted as 1 vote. This means someone who has not voted yet has the extra votes.

Townies do not need to

flat out lie

to make a case against someone. You said, and I quote you exactly here: "No. There are no discrepancies. Drixx is rolefishing and attempting to dismantle wagons. The number of votes to lynch has always matched the number of players in the game." This is objectively and clearly a lie. You say it with conviction like you went and looked, so that means it is an

intentional

lie.

Lynch all Liars says you should die.

VOTE: Titus

My vote won't move until Titus is dead. There are a few extreme edge cases where a townie should lie. Trying to set up someone for a mislynch isn't one of those edge cases. Time for you to hang Titus.

[copper223]

That's Oranje you are talking about, Lihin claimed the prod/dodge modifier + make that player hated.

[Drixx]

@Titus
I think Drixx mentioned that PIka was a doublevoter and Bulbasaur picked it up, in Ivy's ongoing effort to buddy up with Drixx as hard as possible, from what I have seen there is no indication of that as the pirates vote on Ozgin was a single vote, Drixx later corrected himself.

So ifno one currently claims a double vote, why are we bothering? This is a distraction which is very anti-town. It also fucks up going wagons.

As someone who relies heavily on wagon analysis, this annoys me.

As a liar who pretended to go look at the vote counts and then outright lied about them matching up properly,

YOU

annoy me. Lynch All Liars. All aboard for getting rid of Titus the Liar.

[Drixx]

Spoiler: Vote Counts

Vote Count 2.01

Oranje Crush (2)

- Narninian, Toon Fighter

LucianRoy (2)

- Om of the Nom, Drixx

Titus (1)

- Three-Pronged Trouser God

copper223 (1)

- Bulbasaur Commonwealth

Pirate Ika (1)

- Ozgin

Ozgin (1)

- deathfisaro

Bulbasaur Commonwealth (1)

- VysePresident

Not Voting (16)

: Pirate Ika, Oranje Crush, ActionDan, ChriVi, Boonskiies, PeregrineV, vonflare, Cerberus v666, BRantz, LucianRoy, Magua, Titus, Lihin, BBmolla, copper223

With 25 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-02 10:05:14).

@mod: is there a reason we can't have full flips?

Yes, giving full flips would be a significant balance shift that we did not plan for.

I've amended rule I to include the clause in parentheses:

I. This game will use no factions other than what is considered normal (town, mafia, werewolf and serial killer).

Vote Count 2.02

Pirate Ika (4)

- Narninian, Ozgin, Three-Pronged Trouser God, Oranje Crush

LucianRoy (2)

- Om of the Nom, Drixx

Oranje Crush (1)

- Toon Fighter

copper223 (1)

- Bulbasaur Commonwealth

Ozgin (1)

- Pirate Ika

Bulbasaur Commonwealth (1)

- VysePresident

Cerberus v666 (1)

- Magua

Not Voting (14)

: ActionDan, ChriVi, Boonskiies, PeregrineV, vonflare, Cerberus v666, BRantz, LucianRoy, Titus, Lihin, BBmolla, copper223, deathfisaro

With 25 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-02 10:05:14).

Pirate Ika

-

Berlin Undercity Mafia Modified Roleblocker

- Shot through the heart day two.

----------

Vote Count 2.03

LucianRoy (3)

- Om of the Nom, Drixx, Cerberus v666

Oranje Crush (1)

- Toon Fighter

Bulbasaur Commonwealth (1)

- VysePresident

Cerberus v666 (1)

- Magua

Not Voting (18)

: ActionDan, ChriVi, Boonskiies, PeregrineV, vonflare, BRantz, LucianRoy, Titus, Lihin, BBmolla, copper223, deathfisaro, Narninian, Ozgin, Three-Pronged Trouser God, Oranje Crush, Bulbasaur Commonwealth

With 24 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-02 10:05:14).

Vote Count 2.04

Lihin (7)

- Oranje Crush, LucianRoy, Cerberus v666, Drixx, Om of the Nom, Boonskiies, deathfisaro

Oranje Crush (3)

- Toon Fighter, BBmolla, Narninian

Bulbasaur Commonwealth (1)

- VysePresident

Cerberus v666 (1)

- Magua

Not Voting (11)

: ActionDan, ChriVi, PeregrineV, vonflare, Titus, Lihin, copper223, Ozgin, Three-Pronged Trouser God, Bulbasaur Commonwealth

With 23 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-02 10:05:14).

Lihin has been prodded.

Removal of players during the day phase will not reduce the lynch threshold.

Based on the VCs, there's zero foundation for any double voters, much less multiples. Pika votes Ozgin and its one vote.

Oh look, here you are lying again. What a surprise. I am so shocked that you keep lying about something that is easily confirmed objectively.

[Titus]

Shit.. got my claims backwards. Linihe claimed Obvious scum role.

@Drixx, It's not a lie to note the number of votes needed to lynch is dependent on the number of players in the game, which the mod noted.

Really, what protown comes from outing doublevoters?

Yes why would I "lie" about something confitmable? Maybe I don't want more claims.

You do because you are scum.

[Drixx]

I'm not as leery. They said a 33 percent chance to recall on any given night. The longer they don't remember an ability, the less likely it is they ever will. Sure N1 has roughly a 66 percent chance of not remembering. Not recalling on two nights is roughly 44% likely. Night 3 is roughly thirty percent. Not remembering for five nights is about 20% likely. So if Lihin has no ability by Day 5, it should be fake. They should not be alive that long though.

On the other hand, if scum kill an unknown role, they lose all information as to what it could be. So they really want as many claims out in the open as possible.

To properly find the probability of an event happening after a certain number of iterations, you multiply the chance of it not happening, as a fraction, raised to the power of however many iterations you want.

That said, as anyone who has run the probabilities on crafting a desirable Hellfire Amulet in Diablo 3 can tell you, probability is meaningless in a small sample group. The math says that crafting 37 amulets results in around a 97% probability to get the desired affixes ... and yet people craft hundreds and never get anything even remotely usable, let alone the actual affixes they want.

Night one - (2/3)^1 = 66.67% chance it doesn't happen or 33.33% chance it does.
Night two - (2/3)^2 = 44.44% probability it hasn't happen, or 55.56% probability it has by then.
Night three - (2/3)^3 = 29.6% probability it hasn't happened, or 70.4% probability it has by then.
Night four - (2/3)^4 = 19.75% probability it hasn't happened, or 80.25% probability it has by then.
Night five - (2/3)^5 = 13.17% probability it hasn't happened, or 86.83% probability it has by then.

Please note that I used the word chance only for the first night. This is because each time the game mods randomize to see if an ability is granted, it still faces that first night's chance. The rest is probability, and as anyone who has had even a high school level statistics course can tell you,

you cannot apply probability to individual occurrences nor to small sample sizes

.

So you are busying yourself by outright lying about me trying to get a wagon on me, and then you're completely distorting how probability actually works, essentially employing the gambler's fallacy in order to set up a future lynch on someone else.

Why are you resorting to lies and obvious distortions and fallacies to set up people to be lynched? I've given you a tremendous amount of leeway because people who've been around far longer than I seemed to show you some deference, but your ISO is chock full of illogical arguments and stuff that is just objectively wrong and bad. What gives?

[Drixx]

Shit.. got my claims backwards. Linihe claimed Obvious scum role.

@Drixx, It's not a lie to note the number of votes needed to lynch is dependent on the number of players in the game, which the mod noted.

Really, what protown comes from outing doublevoters?

Yes why would I "lie" about something confitmable? Maybe I don't want more claims.

You do because you are scum.

I didn't ask for claims. I noted that someone has an extra votes (Two extra votes are floating around if your claim is true). You said that you looked at the vote counts and that I was wrong and therefore I must be fishing for roles and therefore I must be scum. As for why you lied about the vote counts, only you can explain why, but it's objectively clear that you did.

I even gave you the post numbers to go look. The first vote count of the day said 25 votes available, but listed only 24 alive players. Counting your supposed treestump status, that means there should have been only 23 votes for the 23 players who could vote. The number of votes available decreased by one when Pika was vigged and by one more when BRantz activated his ability and removed from the game.

Occam's razor suggests the most simple explanation is that you lied about your role. I don't need anyone to claim anything to know objectively that you just spent the last hour or so trying to push a wagon on my by outright lying, and now that you're caught outright lying, you didn't respond the way a townie would and say "Oh, I didn't realize that there were more votes than players" ... you

doubled down

on your lie.

Townies admit to mistakes. Scum stick to the narrative.

[Titus]

You are asking to put the double voter which IS asking for a claim.

You are outright lying by saying this is not a rolefish of me.

Outing Doublevoters just makes them a target for scum.

You are using a lot of words to justify but you are rolefishing me and anyone who has not voted.

[Titus]

There also is no discrepancy if the mod made a typo.

You are pushing something VERY antitown.

[Titus]

You have ONE last chance to back off this hunt the double voter nonsense before I tunnell you ass into oblivion.

[Drixx]

Titus, why are you intentionally pretending to be dense. I've seen a town role that can give an extra vote (it is given to a person by the person with the role) and I've also seen a scum role that can do the same thing. If the answer to the double vote is a case like this, the person who has the double vote

doesn't even know it

. This has obvious potentially bad outcomes for us. If the person (or people) with extra votes don't realize it and end up hammering someone they are trying to put at L-1, then there are obvious repercussions from that happening.

Finding out which person or persons has/have the extra votes will not be role or alignment indicative without an explanation for where they came from. Obviously whomever caused the extra votes to happen knows about it and has chosen not to speak up.

So far as I can remember from the thread, you are the only one to have claimed a role which would result in you having a double vote, and I believe you said that happens when you decide to stop being a tree stump. I'm also pretty sure you either implied or said outright that you are still a tree stump. So either you lied, or we have some other role or roles at play, and potentially we have townies who could Hammer without meaning to.

So I say again: I'm not looking for the people who caused the extra votes to claim or explain. I think it is; however,

extremely

prudent to know who has the extra votes to avoid any bad scenarios, and especially the worst case scenario where a strong town PR accidentally hammers another townie and then gets lynched the next day because of it.

Since all of this is very

basic

stuff, and you like to brag about how smart and clever and good at mafia you are, there are only two real explanations for what you've done with your last few posts:

1.) You are Scummy McScumerson and you lied trying to start a wagon on me and then doubled down on that lie instead of reacting like any townie confronted with having made a mistake would.
2.) You are roughly 5% as smart and good at mafia as you think you are.

Since you don't appear to be operating on a Forrest Gump level of mental capability, I'm pretty sure that you're scum.

[Drixx]

You have ONE last chance to back off this hunt the double voter nonsense before I tunnell you ass into oblivion.

You lied. You have been shown that there are indeed 2 more votes than there should be (unless you want to admit your treestump claim is a lie?). The townie response to being shown that you are mistaken would be "Oh, I just assumed the number of votes was equal to the number of players minus me", and then move on.

Instead you want to get in a pissing match and keep doubling down on your lie over and over again. Not only that, you keep pushing it as rolefishing when it simply isn't. I've already pointed out why the person(s) with extra votes might not even know it. It's obvious that whomever caused these extra votes knows it (or else the game would be bastard and the mods say it is not). It's equally obvious that whomever that person/those people is/are, he/they don't feel the need to claim it.

Whether they claim or not has absolutely nothing to do with us making sure we know who has the extra votes and being prudent and careful to avoid mishaps.

[copper223]

@Drixx
She didn't want to say she unstumped, that doesn't mean she is scum.