White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

You 'know' he did.

How do you know this?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If you want to insist on pointless distinctions, there's some teensy chance CheeryDog could be scum lying about it (and an even teensier chance that he's town lying about it). That doesn't change the fact that 'marble's argument is most certainly that he did use it and you represented it as being weaker than it really is.

[Psyche]

cheery dog said that he used a scum token
also, the idea that anyone is letting tokens surpass scumhunting is a strawman

[BlueBloodedToffee]

also, the idea that anyone is letting tokens surpass scumhunting is a strawman

No, it isn't.

Llamarble explicitly stated Regfan was likely town because two tokens.

She said Zach was likely town because one token.

Cheery Dog was likely scum because one token.

Show me the scum-hunting.

[Psyche]

136

[BlueBloodedToffee]

That tells me nothing.

Show me scum-hunting that relates to those reads.

Go.

[Cheery Dog]

Maybe he didn't understand how hard it's going to be for us to justify lynching anyone other than him today with this information in play.
Maybe he was concerned people wouldn't believe him if he didn't claim his token and wanted to get in front of the problem, hoping to be townread for doing so.
Cheery Dog is currently ~twice as likely as any other player in this game to be scum. He better do some impressive things if he doesn't want to die.

Expecting me to do something impressive? what is this nonsense?

[Psyche]

136 refers to a post number

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Show me scum hunting from that post that relates to those reads I just gave.

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.06

Psyche (3) - TellTaleHeart, Oversoul, Ankamius
theelkspeaks (3) - Regfan, BlueBloodedToffee, Aeronaut
BlueBloodedToffee (2) - Psyche, Zachrulez
Cheery Dog (2) - Cogito Ergo Sum, Llamarble
ika (1) - Cheery Dog
Oversoul (1) - theelkspeaks

Not Voting (1) - ika

With 13 alive, it will take 7 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, April 13, 2015, at 9:00 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-04-13 21:00:00).

[Cheery Dog]

Might just be a playstyle thing, might be from playing on another (non-mafia but having mafia games) site with different rules and a meta resulting from that, but I tend to think a quickly building wagon without a solid case, especially at the start of an early day, probably has at least one scum. Don't have good rules for identifying which of the votes is the scum though.

Any wagon has a high chance of containing at least one scum, reasons given regardless. Maybe not in this setup as much if it ends up on scum, so while it may be logical to assume that, save it until you're actually able to do VCA.

83 - Ika, if you think scum is voting you, you should probably do something about that.

like what? i dont want to ruin slayers gambit (cus come on white flag is like the best place to try shit like that)

If you're doing it, it's kind of useless anyway as BBT's post is all you're likely to get.
and I don't see the point in any gambit from town here anyway, regardless of how not-in-meta a gambit is, it's still going to be pointless.

i tried explaining it but i think i will just reiterate that it's pretty esoteric to me
i'm not saying that they're in the same team or anything
they just have the same place in my head when i think about them and this game

You're impressed that I read your post? :S

you know a little less about what the clumps mean than i do but we both homed in on the same tension

i really do apologize for making the clumps now though it's pretty close to meaningless

Can you at least explain how they relate to each other within the clump, I believe there are likely subconscious reasoning you've possibly put them there, and I'd like to get that out.

'Marble, why aren't you voting Cheery Dog? You must know this Psyche-thing is kind of weak given that he's being perfectly open about it.

Hello. You can have elk's spot in my scum pile now.

Why does that mean elk is able to be removed?

Nacho assigns Cheery Dog some townpoints for admitting he took a scum token. I'd like to hear more from CD.
Who are Cheery's buddies?

My best guess currently would be 2 of {Ankamius, elk, ika} although I wouldn't be particularly happy lynching any of those currently.

Too much WIFOM to really call it alignment indicitive, I think.

I think the decision to say it probably isn't very alignment-indicative (the token and his play so far on the other hand totally are). If CD felt it was obvious he would take a scum token, he'd probably feel lying about it would make him more suspicious.

I didn't think it would have been obvious, I may boast of an unbroken scum record, but I also consider my scumplay poor and consider my first scum win to still be my best.

UNVOTE:

[Regfan]

Know it's already been said but both Empire and myself also didn't like Elks Post 74, the commenting of disliking the wagon without any specifics being stated reads as trying to seem contributive while not really doing anything. Also think his reasoning of wanting to vote Oversoul being "Trying to have token information outted = anti-town" should mean that his vote would be on me given that I've been the largest pusher of having that outted but he's still on Oversoul, dudes scum here.

Don't know how to begin to read Psyche (Though Empires telling me his scum-meta that he remembers is that he lurks as scum but it's based on old and limited meta which points town but it's fairly meh reasoning) and Ika find almost all their posts Bad but not necessarily alignment-tells, semi-tempted to try and trick Mina (She's very decisive) into taking a stance on them and blaming her if they're wrong. Also still not seeing the CD wagon, think him outing that he used a scum-tokens is fairly null of an action and while the fact that he has used one increases the odds he's scum I don't have a read on him from posts alone.

Still down from the normal amount of town reads I'd have at this stage, think Llama (Do want him to clarify something below), Zach, CES (Empires kind of paranoid here though and also wants something explained below but it's not something that troubles me much), BBT and TTH town, none at the stage where I'd completely bank on them though, really need more content and real thoughts and reads in this thread. Want to have T->S sorted properly soon.

---

Aeronaut; If you found BBT refraining from outting token usage as scummy in Post 55 a) Why did you not move your vote to him and/or b) Out your own?

Zach; Empire wanted me to state that he agrees with you entirely in regards to disliking BBTs Post 57, I'm not reading it that way though and expect this whole "That's wifom or meta" ect. from him, fairly positive I'll be able to get a strong read on him as the game progresses, have a p high accuracy when it comes to reading him and am leaning towards town at the moment largely for his interactions with Psyche and push on Llama. Join us on Elk, there's cookies.

TTH; Can you explain what you're referring to with "general game dynamics" in Post 81 for me please.

CES; Empire wants to know you were so forthcoming on the cheery read as that's not how he remembers you being generally especially in the early game.

Anak; Would like some reasoning or explanation behind your reads list in Post 139 specifically the reads on BTT, Oversoul, Llama and CES.

Llama; Know your super-early game reads do have reasoning behind them, would appreciate you not ignoring me and actually running me through the thought process behind having Oversoul and Psyche as town to begin with (Even if the reads have changed), you not going through that's about the only hesitation I've on in calling you a strong town read (Though Empire is p positive you're town here via content, level of thought and reaction to Anaks suspicion of you).

Assuming Empire still reads too many games, I wouldn't mind having a rough guide as to how good at scum each member of our player list is.

He wanted me to say he doesn't read games anymore due to lack of time and he's unfamiliar with a large portion of the rosters meta.

[ika]

cheery: top 3 scum reads and top 2 town reads with no reason

[Cheery Dog]

I don't think I've found enough town in anybody yet to do that. At least not until you asked. At this stage I think Pysche and Aeronaut.

Scum reads are probably Llama, BBT and elk.

Vote would probably be on Llama, but it's waiting on what may happen with his push on me before it's placed.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES; Empire wants to know you were so forthcoming on the cheery read as that's not how he remembers you being generally especially in the early game.

It all just felt relevant. I also think I've probably grown a bit less concise over the course of the last year or so.

Assuming Empire still reads too many games, I wouldn't mind having a rough guide as to how good at scum each member of our player list is.

He wanted me to say he doesn't read games anymore due to lack of time and he's unfamiliar with a large portion of the rosters meta.[/quote]
I figured afterwards that that was likely to be the case.

Aeronaut, can you have Cabd give me the information that I want?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'd like reasoning for those reads, Cheery.

[Psyche]

Show me scum hunting from that post that relates to those reads I just gave.

you are playing dumb now

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Simple question;

Show me the scum-hunting that relates to those reads.

Stop dodging.

[Psyche]

It's a stupid question. 136 is all scum-hunting. It's a direct counterexample to your claim.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

No, it isn't.

136 is a reads list. The reads I selected and presented to you are based on the potential use of tokens (Regfan, Zach and CD)

You said I was strawmanning. I asked you to show me where the scum-hunting was that lead to those reads.

So, show me.

[Psyche]

dear god

[Psyche]

I've admittedly been a little more manipulative this game than usual, but I there's anymore benefit to be had from that.
Felt weird voting Psyche for the sake of doing something while I waited for CD to post. Patience is hard.

TOWN:
Llamarble

Regfan - He hasn't really done anything yet but 2 town tokens :doubles: his chance of being town.
Zach - I expect at least one token from him as well. Town are more likely to see their targets as 'squirming.'

BBT - Confidence, readiness to change direction. #84 particularly solid.
ika - Attitude, 'Elk is prob scum for calling me town.'

Oversoul - Followed a reasonable path so far.
TTH - 81, 135 are both moves in the right direction.

CES - 44 & 128 are solid but within scumrange.
Psyche - Pretty much content-free.
Elk - Kinda has the figuring out the game tone but he hasn't really bitten in, works with Cheery, and mostly speaks in generalities.
Ankamius - All he's provided is a low-relevance vote.
Aeronaut - seemed kinda town on a previous readthrough but works just fine as scum.

Cheery Dog - A scum token makes you twice as likely to be scum as a random person. This is sufficient to lynch barring impressive play I haven't seen yet. I don't think CD realized how strong the tokens are.
:SCUM

VOTE: Cheery Dog

I'm kind of tired so I may have derped some of these, but this is round 0.5 I guess.

see lines mentioning players of interest

[Psyche]

the meta changes nothing

i understand the virtue of Llamarble and CES's early game procedure
but at the moment it all seems rather mechanical
there's nothing to read in it

tth is more town than scum for following up on my gasp

ika is so ika and i'm very unhappy about that but ambivalent about the thing that matters

aero, oversoul, zach are all in the same bunch in my head
reg and elk in another
llamarble and ces in a third

someone will ask what the bunches mean!
please know that i'm not sure
none are quite town or scumreads, though

Honestly the way you're processing the game sounds like scum figuring out what everyone is doing so they can decide how to play rather than town figuring out who is scum.

VOTE: Psyche

Elk, what is your opinion of Cheery Dog? Also, why would an analysis of the votes for ika take a long time? There are like 100 posts in this thread and only 4 votes for ika.

'Marble, why aren't you voting Cheery Dog? You must know this Psyche-thing is kind of weak given that he's being perfectly open about it.

Nacho assigns Cheery Dog some townpoints for admitting he took a scum token. I'd like to hear more from CD.
Who are Cheery's buddies?

Maybe he didn't understand how hard it's going to be for us to justify lynching anyone other than him today with this information in play.
Maybe he was concerned people wouldn't believe him if he didn't claim his token and wanted to get in front of the problem, hoping to be townread for doing so.
Cheery Dog is currently ~twice as likely as any other player in this game to be scum. He better do some impressive things if he doesn't want to die.

yknow
i've never played a game with ika where he wasn't lynched

I've never played a game with ika where he wasn't killed night 1.

Regfan has some townpoints for token-reasons, but neither Regfan nor CES has towned very hard yet.

I have no objections to BBT so far.

But is he always dunk?

Ika is scum with Cheery Dog. Doesn't matter who the third one is. Zach Oversoul Psyche can be town.

This seems like good reads for now.

VOTE: ika

This seems inattentive. How come a list including you-scum is good?

"Cheery may have used a scum token"

I'll solve this question for you, I did attempt to use a scum token, still rolled town.

What do you think you'd have said regarding this had you rolled scum?

You are welcome to self-vote.

Where are Regfan and CES?

That is an odd response

And?

why not just reiterate llama's entire iso?
your strawman is a strawman

[BlueBloodedToffee]

You think quoting the whole post changes anything?

Jesus Christ.

I'm going to make this easier for you.

Regfan - He hasn't really done anything yet but 2 town tokens :doubles: his chance of being town.

You see this read? It states Regfan '

hasn't really done anything

' but

two town tokens

make him

more likely to be town

.

Now, show me the

scum hunting

,

not token speculation

,

scum hunting

that lends itself to this read on Regfan.

[Cheery Dog]

I'd like reasoning for those reads, Cheery.

Maybe eventually, right now I don't consider them worth having reasoning.

I don't even think the reasoning on you is a thing anymore, i was earlier, but rechecking means it's just there as something I considered rather than useful.
It was the way in which you asked for more votes on ika, but that's rather null.