White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.10

theelkspeaks (4) - Regfan, Aeronaut, Zachrulez, Oversoul
Cheery Dog (3) - Cogito Ergo Sum, Llamarble, Psyche
Psyche (3) - Antihero, Ankamius, theelkspeaks
Oversoul (1) - BlueBloodedToffee

Not Voting (2) - ika, Cheery Dog

With 13 alive, it will take 7 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, April 13, 2015, at 9:00 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-04-13 21:00:00).

[Cheery Dog]

So this is obviously coming from me as o assume people are waiting on it.

VOTE: llama

Way too much talk of how he's right and should be forehead and whatever, and I'm picking up absolutely zero of that from within his posts.

Pushing a practical policy lynch is not good enough to be deserving of the praise you're asking for by not actually finding scum.

[ika]

cheery: what has ffery said about this game so far?

[ika]

ok so does soemone have a town case for elk or can we like lynch that slot with fire now?

cus im talking with GIF and the others and they see no reason for it to be town

[ika]

llarmable: what has ffery said about this game so far?

fixed (damn you GIF)

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Llamarble

Your reads make no sense.

Psyche: You townread him early on, then later on switch to scumreading him here for the way he's going about reading the game. This is dissonant with your read on Psyche in your reads post, which I assume is part of your null pile for a lack of content. Then he's suddenly town? This is a non-reason, since I can't make sense of this in any way that doesn't apply to a lot more than just him and Zach.

Cheery Dog: You put a lot of effort into pushing Cheery Dog based on the scum token and putting an emphasis on having to have double the convincing to start townreading the slot, but then you admit that his ISO looks more town than scum (neutral at worst implies net positive), but suddenly this post appears which implies that the opposite despite the fact that Cheery Dog had not posted even once in that timeframe.

[Ankamius]

I'm not voting theelkspeaks. Sorry.

[Ankamius]

After speaking with my team about the game state tonight, I believe that all three of the major wagons up to this point (theelkspeaks, Psyche, and Cheery Dog) are on town.

[Llamarble]

IT BEGINS

Your reads make no sense.

Psyche: You townread him early on, then later on switch to scumreading him here for the way he's going about reading the game. This is dissonant with your read on Psyche in your reads post, which I assume is part of your null pile for a lack of content. Then he's suddenly town? This is a non-reason, since I can't make sense of this in any way that doesn't apply to a lot more than just him and Zach.

Cheery Dog: You put a lot of effort into pushing Cheery Dog based on the scum token and putting an emphasis on having to have double the convincing to start townreading the slot, but then you admit that his ISO looks more town than scum (neutral at worst implies net positive), but suddenly this post appears which implies that the opposite despite the fact that Cheery Dog had not posted even once in that timeframe.

Schizophrenic looking reads are one of my most powerful towntells. When I am town and make time, I reread the game over and over from different perspectives and my reads can turn around rapidly. I find it incredibly difficult to replicate this behavior as scum.

Ffery hasn't said anything.

[ika]

ok im proxing GIF here:

@Anka, gif had an epiphany and thinks elk could be town and to sort llam is to just have ffery into game here as well

pedit: get her talking now

[Llamarble]

then you admit that his ISO looks more town than scum

Ah, "you admit," favorite words of scum casemakers who feel a townie has done something they can objectively claim is scummy.
You do realize I QUOTED my 'his ISO looks neutral at worst' in the post where I stated Cheery had become one of my best scumreads to demonstrate my opinion had changed?

While 89 did trigger the ping I described, there was never much to my push on Psyche - trying to engage him was mostly a thing to do while I waited to see a little more Cheery behavior (I also mentioned Nacho's opinion during this time) before letting on how big a deal the scum token is. This and my push on ika, which I was hoping would annoy ika into obvtowning the way he did in my previous game with him, are why I said I was being more manipulative than I usually am in 136.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

As far as I am seeing, llama currently wants to treat me as a milker policy lynch, and I don't like it.

It's not a policy lynch to lynch someone for being more likely to be scum than everyone else.

ok so does soemone have a town case for elk or can we like lynch that slot with fire now?

'Marble's point in #247 is probably the best reason to believe elktown.

After speaking with my team about the game state tonight, I believe that all three of the major wagons up to this point (theelkspeaks, Psyche, and Cheery Dog) are on town.

But you don't feel the need to share the reasons why?

[Llamarble]

When you are voting the player most likely to be scum, it is not a policy lynch. It is a trying to win the game lynch.

VOTE: CES

By this point there were two other votes and a woo, but Cheery opts to go through the standard motions while doing nothing at all.

This seems like good reads for now.

For Cheery-town it is hard for an ultra-early list to be more wrong. But it's good?

"Cheery may have used a scum token"

I'll solve this question for you, I did attempt to use a scum token, still rolled town.

It's very important that Regfan mentioned the possibility of Cheery's scum-token before Cheery did. He didn't just volunteer this; there was discussion of him spending a scum token and he chose this course of action over lying about his tokens. Most scum do have an irrational preference for telling the truth when possible. And then came this:

I'm fine with talking about them, but not as a basis for reads. I'm probably actually going to remain out since I don't know enough to spectate on what others are likely to do. I assume anything said about them is going to be honest though, so it's probably not worth it.

This makes it clear he wasn't expecting much fallout for claiming his token. In fact, he expects everyone would be honest about tokens and nothing would come of it.
These factors weaken the "scum-cheery wouldn't claim his token idea at this point" idea significantly. We should be treating the token like the partial-guilty it is.

Cheery's vote for me is entirely based on me pushing him for reasons that offend him. I don't see any "the bad evil llama is trying to lynch clearly-town me" here. Instead the battleground he chooses is "you don't have the right to lynch me just because it's twice as likely to result in a scumflip; you're supposed to point out behavioral tells!"

As bonuses, Cheery has yet to do anything that would indicate real interest in solving the game, and despite all of the above and the combined work of me / CES, this wagon has been hard to build.

[Llamarble]

CES agreeing with me is kinda scary but hopefully it's just because we're right.

[ika]

llamarble, again get ffery into this game as well

[BlueBloodedToffee]

242 - @Oversoul, I should have. I'm finding it quite frustrating playing with Psyche so far and I let that get the better of me.

You're right, reads can be based on shitty reasoning. But, I don't want the basis of those reads to be on tokens, I don't particularly want tokens to influence reads in any way, shape or form. Llamarble's reads-list pinged me because it was based around token speculation instead of actual scum-hunting.

Why were you interested in finding out who had a scum-read on me?

A wagon on someone you don't find particularly scummy...that smells opportunistic to me.

No, we've never played together.

245 - Ika, I've already stated this. ISO me.

An explanation of your town-read on Psyche would be great.

247 - The confidence in this post is unnerving, Llama.

And the self-meta. Oh, the self-meta. Ugh.

He thought Cheery admitting his scum token seemed town.

La la la.

257 - Ank, explain town read on Psyche and CD?

258 - More self-meta, Llama. I'd lynch you for this alone. 'Hey look, I can't be scum because I can hand select games that show you I've done this exact same thing as town so therefore I must be town.'

That's also pretty good meta if you're scum, right? You can change direction with your reads whenever you feel like it. Nah. That shit will get you lynched.

[ika]

I want a better reason then "the voters" BBT

my town read on phyce comes from GIF and that so far i have yet to see him do his typical scum meta (and yes i know your stance on meta but you should know by now thats how i read a large portion of players)

also given he has been activly engading with you on what he says is scum hunting and you keep saying its not is showing effort wouldnt you agree? tbh from what i recall yoru argument for him being scum is that hes not scum hunting? he quoted many posts already so tell me how his quotes are not (and if its in iso just link me to post number im not going iso hunting)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I want a better reason then "the voters" BBT

my town read on phyce comes from GIF and that so far i have yet to see him do his typical scum meta (and yes i know your stance on meta but you should know by now thats how i read a large portion of players)

also given he has been activly engading with you on what he says is scum hunting and you keep saying its not is showing effort wouldnt you agree? tbh from what i recall yoru argument for him being scum is that hes not scum hunting? he quoted many posts already so tell me how his quotes are not (and if its in iso just link me to post number im not going iso hunting)

Well, you're not getting one. I didn't like the wagon.

Effort is not indicative of alignment.

I don't think I have stated I think Psyche is scum? Even if I did, 'quoting posts' does not equal scum hunting. I'm starting to think he was trolling me and I just can't be assed engaging with people like that.

What I don't understand is how everyone is town reading him because I'm not seeing it at all.

[ika]

ok lets take this approach then cus truthfull i have been very lazy in this game and like ignoring everyone and just going with what GIF just told me.

do you find his trolling to be board VT or trolling scum?

cus truthfully someone else i have talked with (before this game entirely) has told how to read phyce

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I don't know. I'm struggling to read him, most of the time, he doesn't even make sense with what he posts.

I don't use meta. You know this.

I'll work him out. It'll just be through his interactions with other people instead of myself.

[ika]

I don't know. I'm struggling to read him, most of the time, he doesn't even make sense with what he posts.

I don't use meta. You know this.

I'll work him out. It'll just be through his interactions with other people instead of myself.

once final thing before i head to bed:

gun to the head whos the scum team? no reason added, just 3 names

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Top scum-reads right now are Oversoul, Zach and Llama.

[Regfan]

I find Elk ignoring and not commenting on majority of the points on him especially my point about if he thinks token discussion = anti-town his vote should have moved to me given that I was the largest pusher for that being outed to be a p massive scum-tell here. Also find the timing and placement of his vote move to Psyche in Post 201 to read as really opportunistic (Side note; If I'm right on Elk being scum CD makes a lot of sense as a partner, like a lot) given that it was clear from the VC above that Psyche would be a clear counter-wagon to his, lack of any explanation behind the vote at the time strengthens that and the explanation of "I'm just voting with my strongest town read" in Post 212 is an excuse I've seen scum use a lot.

Llama (And CES), I'm not reading the copper related section as a town-tell at all and if you really are I want the thought process behind that explained in super-detail because if their team were following the game and had reads (For instance having TTH as town) then it'd have been mentioned prior to the replace out or have mentioned reads elsewhere by this stage, whole thing looks like trying to add something in the scummy-vote switch post and commenting on a replace out fits.

BBTS interaction with Llama in Post 208 v Post 209 strengthens my town read - he's wrong about Llama but I don't see him pushing that point or attempting to push Llama in this playerlist as scum since he (Or at least someone in his team) would know that there are a few of us that can read Llama (And Llama is abso-god-dam-lutely town here, he's the first town read in this game I'd bank on now, his analysis and "re-read the game with different perspectives changing my reads entirely a) Fits his town-meta to a tee and b) Reads as very genuine here as does his attempt at getting a read on me based on team discussions in Post 220 and Post 221).

Not getting peoples scum reads on Anak, would love them explained. If anything Post 255 while wrong reads like he genuinely believes the points.

Don't like CDs Llama vote, think he (Or least his team ie. Hoopla) would know full well that Llama pushing lynches via information such as tokens and statistics makes a lot of sense from him and is most certainly not a scum-tell. Planning on talking with Empire about him and Oversoul when he gets up.

Makes me sick to say it but I think Ika might have become one of my stronger town-reads, his proxy discussion posts and reads as well as push to get Ffyer in here all read town, admission that he's largely just listening and spitting out GiF's reads in Post 266 and Post 268 read very town especially since I remember Empire telling me in the past that GiF dislikes scum (Will confirm with him though) and don't think he'd be following this so closely or at least taking charge of this as scum.

Lets see how I go, feels like forever since I've done one of these properly:

Town (Strongest to weakest):

Llama, [Gap], Ika, BBT, CES, Zach, [Gap], Anti, Anak.

Null / Undecided:

Oversoul (This might change depending on the peanut galleries help), Psyche.

Scum (Strongest to weakest):

Elk, [Gap], Aernoaut, CD (Also may move after a talk).

I have no idea where the town read on TTH comes from. Most of her play seems reasonably solid but not all that telling apart from maybe #135 (which just seems weird).

Liked the explanation behind the scum read on Psyche in Post 81 even though I don't really agree with it's conclusion, also liked the way she interacted and treated both Psyche and Ika following that, read as attempting to get content from the to strengthen / get a read (The "game dynamic" element of the Ika weak scum read was something I didn't really like though which Empire also picked up on). It was a fairly weak read though and am sure I'll be able to read Antihero much more confidently (his reaction towards Zach in Post 232 reads town already) but want to see reads from him.

[Regfan]

Top scum-reads right now are Oversoul, Zach and Llama.

Think you're wrong on at least two of these. Your whole scum-read and push on Llama ignores the fact that he a) Has stated reads that involve non-token discussion now and b) Him using token-usage and discussion as reads previously fits him perfectly and makes sense given that it does objectively influence alignment chances.

Work with me, what's your detailed reads on Aeronaut, Elk (Ignoring the wagon since "wow fast wagon = town" is bad reasoning especially given that it wasn't particularly fast and there were counter-wagons that were created with Elk jumping on one of them) and CD.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Regfan is scum if Llama is scum.