White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.16

Cheery Dog (2) - Cogito Ergo Sum, Llamarble
Psyche (2) - Antihero, theelkspeaks
theelkspeaks (2) - Aeronaut, Oversoul
Aeronaut (1) - Zachrulez
Llamarble (1) - Ankamius
Oversoul (1) - BlueBloodedToffee

Not Voting (4) - ika, Cheery Dog, Psyche, Regfan

With 13 alive, it will take 7 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, April 13, 2015, at 9:00 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-04-13 21:00:00).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's worth pointing out (for those among us that care) that a scum token will generally more than double your chance of being scum.

I did the calculations for the scenario 1 scum token on Cheery, 1 town token on Regfan, 'marble and Zach each (I'd guess one of Regfan or Zach got two but that doesn't change much) and I did also take into account that I'm town (which makes it slightly less applicable for the three town token players):
Cheery has a 64% chance of scum to start with; regular people have 25% just like in the tokenless game and the three town tokens have 12%.
I also did the calculations for the scenario that on top of that someone else also used a scum token, in which case you get:
62.5% for the scum tokens; 21% for the tokenless and 9% for the town tokens.

Do you want to keep voting for 'marble, Ankamius, knowing that in both scenarios, Cheery Dog literally started the game more than 5 times as likely to be scum as him?

[Llamarble]

Wow, that's pretty brutal. I just figured he had a 40% chance of getting scum for ~sure by rolling under 500 plus another 15% or so from the 25% scumchance if he rolls in the 500-600 range. 55% is still more than twice everyone else, but yeah all the town tokens used makes it really hard to justify not lynching him.

[Llamarble]

I almost want Cheery to be town just so the game isn't "A scum makes a claim that gets him into huge trouble because he doesn't understand the game mechanics -> 9v2 WhiteFlag Trololo"

[Llamarble]

Maybe we lynch the other scums first to prove our manliness?
Anyway, Elk's last post / Regfan and others coming around towards town on them makes me more confident about Elk being town.
That brings the TOWN count to 5.
I'm glad others like ika for town; I'm not as confident but it does make me feel good about the {Oversoul Cheery Ank Aero AH} scumpile. CES and Psyche are wild cards but I have no reason to scumread either of them; I expect both to flip town.

So yeah, who are the townies in the scumpile? Who is the best guarantee of a scumflip? No more reading until tomorrow I really need to do some other stuff...

[Llamarble]

Also would any of Ank, Aero, Oversoul or TTH be likely to use a scum token?

[Oversoul]

Also would any of Ank, Aero, Oversoul or TTH be likely to use a scum token?

No way in hell would I ever do that. 1) I hate scum, 2) haven't played in a long time so I would probably get caught immediately, 3) no one in hell in a team mafia game would I ever willingly want to be scum. Too much pressure and too many people inspecting your play.

But yeah, I'm back for the weekend.

I am tired as shit, so I'm only going to respond to things specifically mentioned to me right now. I'll reread tomorrow

[Oversoul]

It's worth pointing out (for those among us that care) that a scum token will generally more than double your chance of being scum.

I did the calculations for the scenario 1 scum token on Cheery, 1 town token on Regfan, 'marble and Zach each (I'd guess one of Regfan or Zach got two but that doesn't change much) and I did also take into account that I'm town (which makes it slightly less applicable for the three town token players):
Cheery has a 64% chance of scum to start with; regular people have 25% just like in the tokenless game and the three town tokens have 12%.
I also did the calculations for the scenario that on top of that someone else also used a scum token, in which case you get:
62.5% for the scum tokens; 21% for the tokenless and 9% for the town tokens.

Do you want to keep voting for 'marble, Ankamius, knowing that in both scenarios, Cheery Dog literally started the game more than 5 times as likely to be scum as him?

How much does it change for two tokens?

[Oversoul]

Oversoul, I'm cool waiting till this weekend (I have Sat/Sun off work so I'll likely be doing a mass-reread of the game then myself) and I'd like anything your team mates have said about this game, really anything at all will suffice.

I think this was the only thing that was addressed to me since I last posted

Uh... Not entirely sure how much I am allowed to say. Zoraster seems to be super prickly about things this year.

We had game discussion, token discussion, I called Tammy mollie on accident (I think Tammy was upset I did this ), talk about scumspects in the 8:4 game (lol, not in it. we have no lives ), talk about scumspects in the other team games, then Tammy pipes in for white flag on Tuesday.

Speculates that if anyone had the cahones to put tokens on scum in this game, it would be CES. Mentions something similar to Regfan about Elk's odd balancing act vis-a-vis me talking about tokens and Regfan talking about tokens. Says that Marble most likely town. Thinks that TTH is leaning town, as is Zach.

Tammy thinks that Marble most likely would not put tokens into the game for scum and that he is a strong town read.

Looking back on this, only Tammy thus far has commented on white flag. I assume that's all you care about Reg? You and her seem to have good rapport if my memory is correct. Anyway, now begins the Tammy uncertainty (waffles!). She thinks Elk might be town now.

Agrees that a wagon on Cheery is probably the safest option as the likelihood of him being scum is just so much higher. Brings up a point that may or may not be statistically imporant though... if multiple people put in tokens to be scum, would they all lessen each other's chances? I don't even know how to answer that question. Zach becomes a stronger town read, as does TTH/Antihero (agree with her on the Antihero bit).

Thinks that BBT is being fake aggressive and does not like his posting.

Then we talk about my other teammates' games, and the vanilla nightless, lol. We actually seem to agree a lot on the town/scum in that game. Shame we didn't play in it.

Tammy brings up Ank and Cheery as having bad votes and then says that Ank is probably scum. Thinks that Ika might be town. Thinks Elk is more townie now than he was originally

Tammy has a question for Llamarble - why do you feel so strongly about BBT town? She thinks that BBT is just as capable of faking this type of aggression as scum. Tammy is worried that Llamarble is being shortsighted/blinded by the aggression/back and forth he is having with BBT. Tammy also hypothesizes that BBT might want to be scum in a game like this and possibly put tokens down for it.

So yeah that was the game discussion

I still don't have a complete hold on this game but i'll be back tomorrow

UNVOTE:

[Cheery Dog]

VOTE: ika

I'm annoyed we early wagoned him now, because I'm fairly sure it could be the correct one.
Basically all he has been doing is asking for readlists of no content.

[Regfan]

Ank, would like you to elaborate on the "theory" that your team had in Post 390 even if it's not something you believe in.

CES, didn't realise a single scum-token had

that

drastic an impact on alignment (Was also expecting the jump to be around 40-50%), we'd only run the town token one (Had worked out the odds of both Empire and I drawing town pre-game was 75% ignoring any other teams token usage) and were still panicking over that. Mina said she wants to try and calculate where your numbers come from when she's not so busy, want to save her some time and just throw out your workings here?

Llama, no idea if any of the others would have used a scum token but can confirm Oversouls "hate being scum" in Post 406.

Thanks for that run-through Oversoul, would like your own thoughts when you're caught up now, two questions though; 1) When/what post of Elks did Tammy initially read as town and why and 2) Can Tammy explain the "aggression is fake-able re; BBT" as he's one of my strongest town reads and find the manner he's interacted with both Llama, Zach and myself to a lesser degree to read very genuine.

Regfan, you're a funny guy. That town-read on CES is all kinds of sticky; you're right, it doesn't make much sense.

What about ika's reads makes you think he is town? How does him calling for Ffery make him town?

Not how I'd consider myself but you're not wrong that my CES town read is based on p shit reasoning, part of it is probably me hoping/wanting him to be town.

As for my Ika town read, Empire has informed me that my GIF meta isn't entirely accurate and to be slightly careful there which admittedly does weaken some of my reasoning behind my Ika town read but the manner that Ika has brought up reads does read natural (ie. the change around in Post 259) and him wanting ffyer reads town as most people (I'm probably an exception here since I read her very very strongly as scum the one town-game we've both had together) find ffyer easy to read and transparent (I feel that way about Llama over her). It's a thought process and request that has town motivation behind it, so yeah think he's town still.

[Regfan]

Know CD is probably the best place to throw down a vote given a) I still didn't like his jump on Llama b) I've got several town reads making him more likely scum via PoE and c) The scum-token usage makes him (significantly apparently) more likely to be scum but feel like that would be conceding that CESs early scum read owned me this game already and that's not something I feel like doing, not while we have this much time left anyway.

My team still thinks Aeronaut fits wall-flower scum and that there isn't any real transition in his reads, just questions that try to make him seem contributive, Empires not as bothered as I am about the "Zach v BBT" is SvT saying it could just be bad play (and admittedly he's kind of right) but the real kicker is that he's been very active elsewhere on the site yet hasn't commented on this game despite there being a lot of content since - lack of popping in to comment on Elks super town post reads more like him waiting to see where people would head next. There's a little more to this too but I'll go into that later if needed.

Vote: Aeranaut

[Regfan]

Updated:

Town (Strongest to weakest):

Llama, BBT [Gap], Ika, Elk, Zach, [Gap], CES, Anti, Oversoul.

Null / Undecided:

Psyche, Anak.

Scum:

Aernoaut, CD

(Worth saying order after the Zach gap gets really really messy.)

[Regfan]

Would be nice if someone could pop in here to bounce thoughts/reads off given I have the next hour or so free finally and all my loser team mates are asleep.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES, didn't realise a single scum-token had that drastic an impact on alignment (Was also expecting the jump to be around 40-50%), we'd only run the town token one (Had worked out the odds of both Empire and I drawing town pre-game was 75% ignoring any other teams token usage) and were still panicking over that. Mina said she wants to try and calculate where your numbers come from when she's not so busy, want to save her some time and just throw out your workings here?

This is a bit awkward but apparently zoraster hid the most important information at the bottom of a long boring post, so I thought the tokens still moved the bounds by 100/80 (I never double-checked previously since our token distribution was fairly straightforward). I was just going to pretend I hadn't made that error since the tokens match up with my reads anyway but I guess I can't do that now.

I'm too lazy to calculate the real numbers given that they'll be uglier now but I bet my previous observation that tokenless people still have 25% of being scum is approximately true, so you should get something like 56% vs 25% vs 15%.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I did like that Cheery Dog completely ignored it and made a vote on ika which really looks like it's meant as WIFOM for after we lynch CD (even though, realistically, it probably isn't).

Would be nice if someone could pop in here to bounce thoughts/reads off given I have the next hour or so free finally and all my loser team mates are asleep.

I've got some time!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think we should all just pretend that didn't happen apart from the part where Cheery Dog was scummy.

[Regfan]

Sounds like Mina owes me big time for what probably would have been several hours re-running calculations trying to get those numbers then.

I don't think CD's ignorance of your numbers being incorrect or the argument being presented itself is a scum-tell given there isn't a way for him to really respond without an awkward conversation ensuing (It's also not something he'd care to discuss as either alignment). That said I didn't like the Ika vote, the "annoyed we early wagoned him" doesn't read genuine at all. Still think the timing of Aeronaut vanishing from this game while being super active elsewhere is a much stronger scum-tell ie. After Elks super towny post he doesn't seem to know how to react at all - it's how I've seen scum act several times in this kind of situation.

Also what's your read on Oversoul? I found Post 408 townish upon first read through but the more times I've gone over it the more I think it is very fakeable.

[Cheery Dog]

I don't care for statistics. I just know I rolled against the odds, it doesn't matter what the odds actually are for the fact it happened to be true.

[Aeronaut]

Yea, to be clear, the next week or so are going to be RL-heavy for me, but I think I should at least be able to post a few times a day still. That's no excuse for the past few days though, so I apologize.

I actually feel like there's probably one scum within the Zach, BBT thing. That whole fight feels forced to me.

BBT touches on this above (We're both agreeing on something, the universe will explode) but this stance makes no sense whatsoever (Thinking something is SvS or TvT does make some sense but SvT doesn't) as it implies that one of them would be town in this conversation acting awkwardly making nothing stopping from both people being town. The whole "1 scum in X/Y" is something I see scum using a lot to a) Make it look like they're taking a stance at the moment while not really and b) Allows them to line-up reasoning to throw down a vote based on flips alone later (Especially in this setup). So explain why you think the whole fight is forced for me and why you think there's probably one scum in them as opposed to both being scum or both being town.

Uh yea, I actually don't know what the fuck I was talking about; if it were a fabricated fight, then the suspicion would fall under SvS.

I think it's because I have a history of trying to guess the scumteam and being very, very wrong. However, that whole interaction is something to keep in mind for later.

Cheery Dog, is your only scum read right now the one on elk?

Aeronaut, I'd still like you do ask Cabd how strong every player's scum game is, approximately.

On it.

My team still thinks Aeronaut fits wall-flower scum and that there isn't any real transition in his reads, just questions that try to make him seem contributive, Empires not as bothered as I am about the "Zach v BBT" is SvT saying it could just be bad play (and admittedly he's kind of right) but the real kicker is that he's been very active elsewhere on the site yet hasn't commented on this game despite there being a lot of content since - lack of popping in to comment on Elks super town post reads more like him waiting to see where people would head next. There's a little more to this too but I'll go into that later if needed.

Vote: Aeranaut

Honestly, what I do Day 1 is usually ask questions and try to inquire about different things, because until we see a flip, it's all speculative. Especially with daytalk, it's pretty probable that scum are voting for eachother/D1 bussing.

I'm home pretty much all day today, so I'll be taking a closer look at what's going on.

[Aeronaut]

I'm not quite ready to take the pressure off Elk just because he stopped showing up, either.

[Regfan]

Yeah okay, I'm voting scum. Shows up instantly after being suspected, comments pretty much only on things that revolve around suspicion directed towards his slot and then tries to cover Elks post as "Stop showing up" rather than a case of Elk having a very genuine conversation between team mates posted.

CES, there's cookies over here.

[Aeronaut]

Well, do you expect me to sit there as town and just get lynched?

no.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think CD's ignorance of your numbers being incorrect or the argument being presented itself is a scum-tell given there isn't a way for him to really respond without an awkward conversation ensuing (It's also not something he'd care to discuss as either alignment). That said I didn't like the Ika vote, the "annoyed we early wagoned him" doesn't read genuine at all. Still think the timing of Aeronaut vanishing from this game while being super active elsewhere is a much stronger scum-tell ie. After Elks super towny post he doesn't seem to know how to react at all - it's how I've seen scum act several times in this kind of situation.

I do think the ikavote is something you're more likely to do as scum if you feel you're probably getting lynched. I don't really see what Cheery Dog thinks is going to come from that.

Also what's your read on Oversoul? I found Post 408 townish upon first read through but the more times I've gone over it the more I think it is very fakeable.

I find it hard to judge since I've only been on all-town teams. It's probably slightly townish just for the sheer quantity of Tammy's reads (and I wasn't particularly expecting any from the other captains) even though they're all individually fakeable.

[Regfan]

You p much just proved you're following this thread closely enough to know that there's a case and votes against you right now but only willing to comment in a self-preservation type style rather than actually y'know scum-hunt, get reads, state reads. Also means you had previously read Elks post, peoples town reads on him and choose to purposely not comment on the matter which doesn't fit with your scum read on him, does fit with scum not knowing where to move to after it.