8:4 Vanilla Nightless [TM2015] - GAME OVER

[ZZZX]

honestly feeling better about nacho's last few posts. Not great but better.

also sorry guys but I cant read in depth. I havent been able to touch techonology all day :/

[ZZZX]

ill be on for 10 minutes if there are any posts I should immeditly read/respond to please inform me here.

[EddieFenix]

Why Kagami scum, Nacho?

Did actually think Silverwolf sucked, Kagami came in and played the whole "oh I'm ok with lynching Sotty if we do the vengeful plan even though I doubt anyone will follow it" angle, and also has been parking vote on GreyICE for reasons that didn't have the same passion your vote did.

I read that, serephim. It's not compelling. I agree that sotty's play isn't amazing, but I've seen far worse from town being tunneled into the ground.

GI's posting is bizarrely inconsistent, which is ironic given he says the same of sotty. The best point he makes is the token thing.

He complains that sotty is willing to town block with players who haven't even posted against, pointing to a list that is probably just people sotty likes/has played with before. Later hoopla shows up later saying she'll sheep GI and ABR and just gamble that they're town. Hoopla gets a solid town for that because hoopla understands the need to town-block.

He should have had hoopla as town at 114, given his suspicion of sotty. Instead, there are sprinkles of "hoopla might be scum" in the token conversation and hoopla's opening is "deliberately uninteresting." He decides hoopla is town at 272 for whatever reason. I asked him about it, and apparently GI doesn't do pre-flip associations. Meanwhile, Eddie is revving a chainsaw in 258.

sotty is apparently pathetic and the worst liar ever. And is a legendary scum player in the next post.

There are other little things too. I don't believe town greyICE would ever utter "scum caught for the wrong reasons." He's just too smart to believe that. 277 is another ridiculous thing I don't think town-GI would say. "One of my townreads is scum" reads as "I'll have to 180 on one of my townreads once my scumreads are all dead."

And yes, a lot of this oddly revolves around a greyice-hoopla interaction. I think they're scum together. The early hoopla-scum sprinkles might indicate town-hoopla, but it looks like it was just distancing that grey decided not to bother with since he inexplicably has a townread from everyone.

So on to that townread. Why is greyICE town, seraphim?

I'm ok with a sotty lynch if we do the vengeful thing starting with day 1.

Then let's do it.

ICE is scum, sotty will request a venge on him. He will try to wiggle out. We'll lynch him and his team will be painfully obvious from the events of today.

You of all people should be happy about that, eddie.

If we're lynching sotty, I want greyICE dead tomorrow on a town-flip.

If we agree on this, I'll even bring the rope to the hanging tree. Yes, I get that ABR is a maverick, but I want some recognition that this should be a thing from everyone else.

Sadly, I don't actually believe anyone is going to let sotty dictate the lynch. I don't think that will happen even if we get to 6:4 (which is pretty much identical to 7:4 in terms of town-needed-to-be-dumb), because the greyICE-hoopla theory chat was probably just soft-distancing.

It legitimately is not a bad idea, though, and despite MS's statement to the contrary, mislynched town often have the best reads. That's usually why they're mislynched.

Kagami is suddenly absolutely convinced I'm scum, but willing to hang Sotty first, because he likes my points on tokens.

Nope, but nice try. Sotty is town, you are not. The reason I'm ok with lynching sotty is that there's otherwise zero chance in this gamestate of lynching you, the actual scum. For strange cosmic reasons, a lot of people think you're town and they simply can't all be partners. Once you're lynched, your team has no prayer. As you correctly stated, this setup is a snowball-fest.

And please point me to when I "suddenly" became convinced, because I had you as scum on my first read through.

GreyICE is scum.

Grey wants to lynch sotty. GreyICE pulls back when confronted with actual repercussions on a town-flip. That makes sotty 907% town.

Grey wants to townblock with hoopla, like, really wants to. For no reason. Then he's called on it. Now hoopla is maybe, kinda, not town, but definitely not someone he wants to lynch. Hoopla is a buddy.

Reread the game fresh with a greyice-hoopla scum perspective. It's magical how much things make sense.

Because I was calling him out on the sotty push. He thought it would be a freebie, but now people will re-evaluate him.

The key is "if they are unsure;" what aspect of greyICE's iso suggests that he's unsure?

Am I missing something here, Nacho?

edit:

Who's replacing out. Sotty is town and apart of our ideal town block (MS, Kagami, ZZZX, Zar, and Myself).

Why not wgeurts?

wgerurts is a read that Ank started as town, then flipped early on. I'll get a read from the group now that Mollie is apart of the team and catching up.

[EddieFenix]

ill be on for 10 minutes if there are any posts I should immeditly read/respond to please inform me here.

MS's 608

[Nachomamma8]

First quote:

Kagami finds it a point that Grey is scum for criticizing Sotty's town block options when that was clearly a misunderstanding. There is absolutely no reason to misrep someone when the counter is so easy and obvious. She gives Hoopla a strong town read because Hoopla understands optimal strategy (null), which is a strong point towards them being partners. She tried to clear Hoopla from being a Sotty-partner because she voted Sotty, which is trash and terrible. The "pathetic and a liar" posting and the "legendary scum player" point is also really, really weak: telling someone they're playing poorly while you're pushing them as scum is part of the game, regardless of how much you respect them.

[Nachomamma8]

I've already talked about how much I hated the vengeful plan posts, I thought.

[Nachomamma8]

What is your personal read on wgeurts? Also talk to Mollie about ABR: she realizes how worn out he's been as scum lately and how dramatically this game contrasts from something like Curse of the Werewolves. He belongs in your town block.

[Nachomamma8]

And even if you don't want to lynch Kagami, why not Hoopla or Sotty?

[Nachomamma8]

Metal Sonic/wgeurts/ZZZX/ABR

ZZZX, what do you think of this town block?

[ZZZX]

Metal Sonic/wgeurts/ZZZX/ABR

ZZZX, what do you think of this town block?

looks fine so far. a few people can be added.

let me check ms's post in a sec

[EddieFenix]

And even if you don't want to lynch Kagami, why not Hoopla or Sotty?

I stated earlier that Hoopla would be someone I would lynch.

[ZZZX]

Sonic's post of the day 5

Hello everyone. Today's edition will focus on #601, #602, and #605. I have already addressed most, if not all other previous concerns in my live posting.

Firstly,

headlines

Considering that one can take your early game like....

Spoiler:

Wow, I had forgotten that tiger eaten abortion of a game.

Why do I think you would spend tokens on your scum play? It's literally legendary. Believe it or not, I don't think that the tokens were spent "counterintuitively" very often. You'd hardly be the first returning player to take scum (mith himself did it in the first one).

Why you? I wanted to see how you'd respond. Hoopla just complains that everyone always finds her scummy, she'll pop up with some theory blather in a few days. I was hoping you'd be more interesting. And you were.

... No more tokens. Also enough theories

You claimed to be voting me because I was likely to use tokens to make myself scum. That is untrue, it is pretty well known I favor town if any tokens were to be spent on me it would be in that direction as Nacho hinted at. Not only that but you said that Hoopla was more likely to push a token scum draw than myself yet your vote is on me. Why me over her? You're going after the weaker of the two options you listed for yourself and that's not the GreyICE I remember at all.

You remember me? Interesting. What game was that, to give you such a strong impression?

As for recent play experience, I'll save your team the digging - I've been semi-retired for ages. I think the last game I played with Hoopla was like a year ago. My work schedule, moving, and a whole lot of shit has fucked my ability to commit to mafia.

Okey stop pure token talk. This is a common talking-about-mechanics and ignoring game kind of thing.

Interesting.

Why would you say "tokens" is bullshit? They give you an enormous ability to influence your role PM. The idea that we should simply ignore this seems ludicrous.

But even more than that, you've won today's lottery!

Because "tokens" is bullshit and voting me over Hoopla in that respect is even worse.

So my reason is shitty, but even if it wasn't, I should have voted Hoopla rather than you based on it?

Congratulations! You win a noose!

Sorry I'm lynching you for the wrong reasons, scumbag.

To be honest I never got your post. I think my vote is in the right place. you are scum reading him so hard right now because he MIGHT have put tokens as scum? this is not how this works...

None. We're actually all flying solo at the moment. Our QT is 3 pages long, and two of them are chatting with Zoraster.

No content yet.

Your "townhunting" theory and townblock are so incredibly bad that one cannot believe you came up with them unbiased.

Nightless games inevitably snowball. See Camden, or my setup I designed with Hito. At the moment we have 4 mislynches to town loss, but after a single scum lynch we get a spare mislynch. 5 mislynches is nice. Two scum die, and we get 6. That's really nice. 3, and we get 7 fucking mislynches, and if we manage that we should all quit the site.

So the scum are going to be looking to vote as a block. I smell protectionist scum who wish to work together.

Well you just said my whole theory was baised or something and its bad? I dont actually get it. This is a nightless game. scum needs 5 mislynches in a row to win. if you lynch a scum then u even add one more mislynch. typically if u have a town block of 3 and lynching 1-2 scum (considering ur town block was accurate) you just PoE your way to win). even if you have at least 1 town read that is one less scum target. if someone was clearly town he cant die without scum going there and making thier hands dirty. town blocs basically secures the town player's places where they belong.

Am I wrong?

I'm annoyed that I only have two townreads so far on page 5 (ZZZX and ABR) and it somehow feels like not much is going down. I wonder if this is the result of rust or the fact that half this thread is two guys or my general antsiness. Or a combination of all three.

(Bigger post coming up next after I finish rereading and thinking.)

We are missing EddieFenix, Hoopla, Sotty7, and Seraphim's post was such a non-entry that it actually might have removed information from the thread. He's my vote for coasting scum by the by.

But two of those were names I twigged as likely to token scum, alongside you and Nacho. Especially Hoopla, as tokening scum in this setup fits her profile.

well i will call this mini info post #1. but infact its all theory talk. also... where is the vote in this one?

Your ISO is a wasteland

A vast tract of sand and sun, devoid of life

Quantity<Quality, ABR has said more than you have.

Post4: No he... didnt. a single scum read doesnt help much in this kind of games frankly. he did do good stuff but nothing "amazing" yet.

You have 32 fucking posts for that

Stop spamming

Post3: Well technically "just that" included a third of the game. which is a pretty damn high number for that number of posts. noonetheless lets move on.

Hmmm,

Nacho

, why did interject regarding Grey's vote on Sotty before she'd posted?

Like you. You're interesting. You think.

Get metal sonic is like 14. And excited. Please chill.

post2: hmm.. so i think this is a null/town read on empire? or was it nacho? also random comment on metal

vote : sotty7

Serious vote.

Post 1: okey

Le Early PbPA: Read from bot to top

tl;dr:

GreyIce:

-only kind of content posts are about tokens this token that.
-0 talk related to what happened in the thread. he just went in to say my spam is crap then never read the thread it seems
-has done a few scumtells.
-overall scummy

Not to mention you avoided even trying to point out ANY flaws in ZZZX's PbPA. Why not slam that as hard as you can?! Especially since it would BENEFIT you to slam that shit?!

This is one of the most insightful points I have seen in the game. Oh my. 10/10 agree.

It's an extremely excellent catch. Highly compelling point. Wow.

I overlooked this previously, and I suppose so did many people, but

everyone should read what's in this quote.

And since ZZZX can be considered to be one of the towniest members in the game, this gives credibility.

So, what's on the cover of today's weekend edition?

Highlight number 1: GreyICE may not be as town as we thought!

Highlight number 2: EddieFenix is town -- the Whys and the Hows?

Highlight number 3: Sotty and GreyICE, partners in crime?

So GreyICE's latest game-relevant posts have begun to tick more and more, and new discoveries by EddieFenix have convinced me that GreyICE is not eligible for a place in the town block.

Firstly, I think that EddieFenix already explained this point but let me restate this again.

I thought it was pretty clear. She herself summarized it in a single sentence:

Vote: GreyICE

Because "tokens" is bullshit and voting me over Hoopla in that respect is even worse.

Tokens are bullshit

and

it's not fair I voted her for tokens when I should be voting Hoopla.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

Remember the initial theorem:

When they start grabbing someone else and yelling "well this person was doing it too!" or "you should be going after them if you think that, not me!", especially when they couple that with "And X wasn't really scummy at all" then you can very safely hang them.

The theorem means that a scum would likely

call out another player with the same behavior that they were accused of.

Let us take a closer look at the context:

Especially Hoopla, as tokening scum in this setup fits her profile.

Vote: GreyICE

Because "tokens" is bullshit and voting me over Hoopla in that respect is even worse.

So it appears that GreyICE's reasoning for his initial vote on Sotty was because "she was likely to token scum". However, by his own admission Hoopla was the most likely to token scum in this game. By this logic, GreyICE should have voted Hoopla over Sotty for the same reason. In essence, GreyICE was correct when he said this:

So my reason is shitty, but even if it wasn't, I should have voted Hoopla rather than you based on it?

Sotty didn't pull out Hoopla's name out of thin air. GreyICE literally mentioned in a previous post that Hoopla was the most likely to token scum.

Sotty was voting GreyICE because of a self contradiction, not as a scum reaction.

See the thing here, Sotty didn't deflect. Sotty didn't "[grab] someone else" when she was accused. Sotty was pointing out your

logic gap

in your reasoning behind a vote on her. Whether the tokens argument is "bullshit" or not is irrelevant;

your

argument was the one that was "bullshit".

I mean in no way does the statement "that's not the GreyICE I remember" make sense. It makes negative sense. I've had plenty of good games, and quite a few bad games, and I honestly don't know what that one was because of Tigers (site crash) but seriously where the hell did that statement come from.

Yeah, okay, thanks for the history.

Whether her statements make sense or not is irrelevant; what is the scum motivation? How does this relate to the golden rule of scumhunting that you have spelled out so finely earlier?


Well, so I was hoping for some good work, but I have been sorely disappointed.

___

In contrast, EddieFenix has posted the "right" answer in response to GreyICE's strike in #586. I would have expected EddieFenix to answer something along the lines of 'discussion with his team', because of contextual clues and evidence of this can be found in his ISO.

I had a strong town read on Eddie early game but GreyICE's argument is very compelling

I stand by my words here, if Eddie had replied "Whoops! I back down", or "GreyICE, you're right" or equivalent, I'd be glad to send him to the noose immediately. I chose to wait, because Eddie's response would be alignment-indicative. And his response was the town one.

(Because I can talk to my team in PRIVATE and discuss POSTS with them)

Is the "right" answer. Anything else would have been wrong and meant a swift death.

____

So I do not rule out the possibility of GreyICE and Sotty both being scum, with GreyICE bussing Sotty. Incidentally, Sotty's #605 just comes right in and drives the point home. Let's take a look at this

I'm starting to feel a little better about [GreyICE].

Hi I have moved on from GreyICE, you're welcome to join me.

GreyICE is a weird one for me. His attacks on me all game have been shitty but when he actually sits back and details things from a whole game preservative I can kinda understand where he is coming from.

What.
The.
Shit.



Here's how this is going down. First I'll dissect Sotty's post as per normal, then I'll write an argument for why Sotty-GreyICE interactions are dodgy as all hell and there is reason to believe a Sotty-GreyICE-Hoopla triangle scum siege.

Not only did Hoopla come off as pretty pro town

How are they pro town? Can you give examples?

once Hoopla started posting her ideas this fizzed for me.

How did it "fizz" for you? Can you describe your thought process?

Combine this with his actual reasoning for finding Hoopla suspicious (one of the only people to lay this out) I'm starting to feel a little better about him.

What 'actual reasoning' do you refer to? Did you mean the reason that "Hoopla" is more likely to token scum? In no manner did GreyICE ever suspect Hoopla save for #539 that only comes close if we stretch it. Did you see something that we all overlooked?

How is it compelling?
Why is Hoopla scum? You called Seraphim's case bad and then never expanded.
What's your current read on me?

All have been answered.

Alright your voting me, but why?

To see your reaction. To generate extra pressure on you. To remind you that you are always in danger of a lynch, even if there were no votes on you in the past vote count.

To appease ABR?

This question is only three words long, but it can be considered the most significant. Firstly, let's establish that I have a higher arbitrary "town level" than ABR. My name has already been nominated for townblocks by multiple distinct players, while I have to actually kindly request for ABR to be included in the townblocks themselves. It is unnecessary for me "to appease ABR".

Secondly, I like how Sotty ignores GreyICE's very obvious "appeasement" behavior. Did you actually think that I would miss that? Let us see examples:

Spoiler: A

ABR, the activity around this wagon is getting serious red flag territory. I don't like it. LLD thinks it's shit. Nacho's vote was fine for him to ride out the day or pull to explain it's "pressure". People are setting up day 1, not day 2.

Gimme something new. Literally pick a vote, I will sheep. Something is wrong here. I'm not saying lets not revisit it on a later day, but day 1 this is seriously off. Just please lets not do wgeurts, my team thinks he looks like he's legit trying to figure out the game, and I agree.

Spoiler: B

You unvoted Sotty so she could post more, even though you have a scum read on her, and decide to vote for Hoopla who posted even less content than Sotty.

Vote: Seraphim

Vote: Seraphim

Spoiler: C

Time's up, guys. I stepped back to let the game breathe without me and nothing happened. Hoopla never posted, Sotty didn't contribute, wgeurts and ZZZX V/LA, Zar not caught up. Absolutely nothing.

Let's get this underway and end this day.

Vote: Sotty

Vote:Sotty

Literally none of the resistance to this wagon comes from town reads.

Although Seraphim was still a good vote.

Did you get sloppier as your situation became more dire? What then, do you think of GreyICE's attempts to "appease ABR"? Why didn't you ask GreyICE why he is voting you, then?

I believe the interactions are clear and no further needs to be said on this matter.

I'm starting to wonder a little about Nacho. He is feeling off his game.

You don't say.

GreyICE is a weird one for me.

You don't say.

Everyone else is a little bit of a blur

Metal is all over the place, I feel like he is posting a lot without really saying much.

The grass is blue, the sun is green, and I'm Obama.

____

This got a little long so part 2 is my argument for why GreyICE + Sotty is plausible.

ugh no time to take it all but let me just say that i would push grey usually but my teammates told me he is town so i slowed down somewhat. more in-depth-reading of this post will take a while which i cant do atm.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Nacho you coming over to Sotty or I'm coming over to Kagami?

Your place or mine?

[Nachomamma8]

Depends where Zar and Eddie end up, but I'm guessing your place.

[Metal Sonic]

Having wgeurts in the town block instead of zar is pretty contrarian! I would really appreciate it if you could give the distinction: why wgeurts? Why not zar? Why wgeurts over zar?

3 questions with detailed answers please!

[Sotty7]

Long posts kill my vibe but that's for the TLDR conclusion.

Conclusion

GreyICE's reasoning for his initial Sotty push was indeed for the 'wrong' reasons, and these only became apparent when I obliged him to write a longer paragraph detailing his thought processes. His actions after the wagon has started indicate a laid-back approach, as if he was expecting a large reward (town-cred) in return for his Sotty "push" -- the lack of true conviction in wanting a real scum lynched as compared to attempts receive the towncred is shown. Finally, both Sotty's and GreyICE's interactions and trajectories with regard to Hoopla are twisted, baffling, and bewildering, suggesting that they are scum together while performing an intricate strategy.

You think Grey v me is scum v scum but when this is actually going down you pretty much sat the fence, attacking me along side Grey while calling his point absurd (post 127) As for baffling Hoopla interactions you still haven't explained the Hoopla case, or if you did it was lost in your big posts. Instead you referred again to someone elses "bad case" as if that should explain everything. It doesn't.

Sotty:

I haven't played my normal game because of the nature of the game/playerlist, not for any shitty "Team Mafia" reasons. In this type of game, it's important to either A) form a strong town block of people and push the rest of the game out, or B) find two or three scum early game, run them into the ground, then let paranoia run a bit more rampant once you've built a comfortable lead. I'm hoping to do a combination of both approaches, but needed time to form more solid reads and see where the lines in the sand started forming before I got involved myself.

I just miss supertown Nacho. I don't really like TeamMafia Nacho that much. He's too dialed down.

I re-read Kagami and I'm leaning town. His reasoning around his GreyScum read actually work pretty well for me. GreyICE did start to peel off me once the Vengeful plan was laid out and then has filtered back towards me after it's been pretty clear we're not doing that. At the time ICE would have been my pick hands down. Not so much right now, Seraphim maybe even Metal would be serious contenders for me at this point. But Kagami's point against Grey actually holds some weight. ScumICE could have easily backed off in an effort to self preserve. I get the feeling Kagami's scum reads are because he is holding an unpopular opinion which makes him easy fodder.

[Metal Sonic]

Sat on the fence? I think it was pretty clear that I was voting you during that period of time. Plus, the evidence you have quoted was post 127, before I have been tipped off about you-GreyICE interactions only recently. If you have any more recent and time-relevant examples please go ahead and show us.


Here is my hoopla case:

1. Super Lurky
2. 0 game-relevant content
3. No scumhunting
4. She doesn't have the free pass that nacho has


Since you and grey are 'townreading' hoopla in spite of all these, it makes sense to group the 3 of you together.

[Metal Sonic]

VOTE: Hoopla

My team suggests that this is the better vote and I'm fine with either

[quadz08]

Votecount 1.10

Kagami (3) - wgeurts, ZZZX, Nachomamma8
GreyICE (2) - EddieFenix, Kagami
Sotty7 (2) - Albert B. Rampage, GreyICE
Hoopla (2) - Seraphim, Metal Sonic
Seraphim (1) - Sotty7
EddieFenix (1) - Hoopla

Not Voting (1) - Zar

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

Kagami and Seraphim have been prodded.

wgeurts is V/LA until 4/7.
ZZZX is V/LA until 4/5.

Deadline is 4/9 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-09 18:00:00).

[Metal Sonic]

Lmao nobody posting on Sunday eh

[Nachomamma8]

Having wgeurts in the town block instead of zar is pretty contrarian! I would really appreciate it if you could give the distinction: why wgeurts? Why not zar? Why wgeurts over zar?

3 questions with detailed answers please!

Why not Zar? Zar hasn't done anything vaguely townish. He's made a weak push on me, then disappeared.

Meanwhile, Empire made a couple good posts but his main push was on town (you). It's also been proven in ASOIAF that scum-Empire can make a couple good posts and it's making consistent town posts that separates town game from scum game.

[Nachomamma8]

Wgeurts has had fantastic aggression this entire game, comes across as incredibly genuine in points like #438, #478, and has an impressive body of work in a game with a strong playerlist when he doesn't actually have any sort of scum game at all.

[Nachomamma8]

Sotty: When was there a point in the game where "lynch Sotty, follow the plan" actually seemed like a real thing that anyone was doing? If I was scum Grey pushing for your lynch, I don't think there would be any point where I would be afraid of your townflip. What do you think of my towngroup other than Metal Sonic? Why do you find Metal Sonic scummy (aka is it just incorrect reasoning? You don't get an extremely genuine vibe from his posts at all?).

[Nachomamma8]

He was talking, and then he wasn't talking.
Why do you think my read changed, Zar?

Basically, you responded this to Metal Sonic's question:

I want your thoughts on the following players:

Seraphim
GreyICE
Albert B. rampage
Any updates on your wgeurts read?


If members on your team (including ffery) could chip in that'll be great!

I think all of these people are town.
I think Hoopla is scum.

But before you said the following earlier:

Sorry for being contrary guys!

I still think wolf slot is a fine vote, although a bit less so.
Sotty, unfortunately, is forming up to be an ok vote at this stage.
Seraphim is a great vote.

I'd like to bring Sotty into the game at this point because I find I do best when I have a couple of sounding boards in thread to work with and now that Empire's gone, Sotty is probably the player I feel the most comfortable with, but I'd like her in the game and talking about things instead of letting Grey dictate interactions and her just sitting on the peripheral.

I also love Hoopla's entrance in a "good player" sort of way, although the Eddie vote doesn't seem like the strongest direction we can take at this stage.

and I don't really see what leads to the change, so it kinda looks to me like it's something that could be done to take off some heat off a partner without looking like you're defending them.

Seraphim had something like 20 posts in between those two posts of mine, and those 20 posts are entirely the reason I went from scum--->town on him in the first place. Hoopla I said I liked her entrance in a "good player" sort of way, meaning I liked the vibe she brought to the game and I liked her theory talk on the game. That doesn't mean I have a town read on her because those things aren't particularly difficult to fake as scum.

[Seraphim]

I guess I'm still here. It's easter sunday so I can't post more than this but we should still lynch Hoopla.