8:4 Vanilla Nightless [TM2015] - GAME OVER

[ooba]

Now before you vote Zar, I need you to consider two things:

a) First, Zar was on the Kagami wagon before. I don't remember the exact reasons as to why he got on etc. I'll analyse this - but it should give you pause.

Votecount 2.2

Kagami (4) - GreyICE, Nachomamma8, Zar, wgeurts
Nachomamma8 (2) - Albert B. Rampage, ZZZX
GreyICE (1) - Metal Sonic
Seraphim (1) - Sotty7

Not Voting (3) - EddieFenix, Kagami, Seraphim

With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

Deadline is 4/18 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-18 18:00:00).

b) Second, just ISO Metal Sonic. Start with after Nacho comes up with his list for best results. I think its obvious - I'll highlight every single piece of associate evidence.

@ZZZX: Tell ika this is like the Om-Klazam ISO in the Lost Room Mafia. It's painfully obvious.

[ZZZX]

follow nacho's for now.

[ooba]

GreyIce is town ZZZX. Work with me here. ISO wagons.

ISO GreyIce - he literally pushed Kagami and Sotty so hard.

Ok. Done with Day 1. Here are my thoughts:

- Kagami, Sotty, Eddie, Zar literally just lurked out the end of the day
- Kagami used GreyIce suspicion as a crutch to literally comment on nothing else throughout the entire day.
- This is similar to wgeurt's MS suspicion at the start of the game - but his play improved as the day continued - I liked the Kagami vote when Hoopla's wagon looked like it might die down.

-

Nacho and GreyIce are the towniest of town

. I'm no expert scum hunter, but I am good at town hunting. Their conviction is extremely genuine. People hold Nacho to some godlike town standard but there are many nuggets of town here:
a) His reads look spot on
b) The "I don't know how many scum bodies I have to drop"
c) Saying this is good to GreyIce's "Let's lynch Kagami today. If she flips town, I'll help you with Nacho tomorrow" to ABR

I'll drop this now and will update after Day 2.

Vote: Sotty

[ZZZX]

GreyIce is town ZZZX. Work with me here. ISO wagons.

ISO GreyIce - he literally pushed Kagami and Sotty so hard.

Ok. Done with Day 1. Here are my thoughts:

- Kagami, Sotty, Eddie, Zar literally just lurked out the end of the day
- Kagami used GreyIce suspicion as a crutch to literally comment on nothing else throughout the entire day.
- This is similar to wgeurt's MS suspicion at the start of the game - but his play improved as the day continued - I liked the Kagami vote when Hoopla's wagon looked like it might die down.

-

Nacho and GreyIce are the towniest of town

. I'm no expert scum hunter, but I am good at town hunting. Their conviction is extremely genuine. People hold Nacho to some godlike town standard but there are many nuggets of town here:
a) His reads look spot on
b) The "I don't know how many scum bodies I have to drop"
c) Saying this is good to GreyIce's "Let's lynch Kagami today. If she flips town, I'll help you with Nacho tomorrow" to ABR

I'll drop this now and will update after Day 2.

Vote: Sotty

Ooba if we listened that much yesterday we wouldnt have lynched kagami. would we?

I will follow and read.

but this game is on auto win right now.

[ZZZX]

like personally i wana lynch zar first but i cant cus i must listen to nacho

[ZZZX]

My personal death list is:

Sotty ---> Kagami ---> GreyICE ---> Zar.

Are you going to follow those names when I flip town, Grey?

[ooba]

Ooba if we listened that much yesterday we wouldnt have lynched kagami. would we?

I will follow and read.

but this game is on auto win right now.

Actually you can literally see the gears in my head churning in these posts. I laid out every single step.

I didn't vote Kagami because I wanted to follow Nacho's list.

I voted Kagami because I removed the assumption that the three of you were planning a mislynch on her. Then MS-Kagami became obvious.

Spoiler: Workings

Kagami is flipping town.

- D2: I wanted to lynch Sotty when Nacho was the play
- D4: I want to present my lynch choices when Kagami is the play
See any similarities?

You WILL GODDAMN WAIT AND LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY.

See the differance is this:
while nacho was obvtown and very contenful kagami was not and a lurksack + the "follow the plan" is in motion so that affects the situation too.
Thus your analysis is misguided.

We're past the point where isolated scum tells such 'Kagami is a lurksack' is valid reasons enough to push for a lynch.

You have a scum flip. You now have proved scum-??? interactions. You analyse them - you find scum and you lynch.

When pushing for a lynch - you now have to keep asking yourself 'Who the hell is scum with this person. So Sotty + Kagami + ??? + ??? - those other two'

Ok - you say GreyIce as a possible third? You analyse 'GreyIce' ~ 'Sotty' interactions. You'll come with the feeling that "HEY - THATS NOT A BUS" - and you'll know Grey is town.

So Grey is town? Who else can it be?
- wgeurts: Improbable because he had already made comments to the tune of 'Hey if nacho flips town lynch Kagami' on D2. Not going to do that with a scum partner.
- ZZZX: "Hey Guys what about Kagami?" on D2 and the pace of voting now - impossible to be a scum partner
- ABR with his instant vote on Kagami D3? - Nope
- Zar voted Kagami D2 when bussing was the best and far superior option. - Nope
- ooba? My first entry of the game was "Nacho-Ice sure town. One of Sotty\Kagami def scum" -> Really a double bus first post? Nope

That leaves MS and mollie. I can't remember anything from memory that particularly counters these pairings.

So could be {Sotty, Kagami, MS, mollie} - literally the only pairing that makes sense with Kagami scum. But when you have a town lean on mollie - but a 'at least I townread this slot before; I shouldn't question my early town reads' on MS - you realise even that is kinda not probable.

Hence your initial assumption was wrong. The building comes crumbling down - and only one thought survives the chaos that ensues. 'Kagami is town' and you are pretty certain of it.

Just a random thought: If it is {MS, Mollie, Sotty, Kagami} - it's pretty funny that MS started lisetening\being nice to me only after I made this post.

i have a duty to preserve the legacy of nacho


even if i strongly disagree with them!

Nacho was wrong about all other three names on his list. You'll see why once I show you the light.

You know what - the more I think about it, the more this makes sense.

I thought it was ZZZX\Wgeurts\ABR - but somethings did make me pause on that today:
- Wgeurts sudden turn around - I really cannot see scum making a dramatic turn around like this. Plus I would have pegged ABR to be the one they select to slaughter their own team mates.
- Read back on ZZZX's promise. He seems incredibly calm to following Nacho's lynch list - even with Sotty leading the list. Now, the other three names would be town in that scenario - but he knew town would have stopped at town-kagami.

So let's go ahead with Kagami
- A Kagami scum flip would clear all of these - ABR\Wgeurts\ZZZX for me
- And on a town flip - I can tell you why I thought ZZZX\Wgeurts\ABR makes sense as a team

Vote: Kagami

It's not auto win because you have MS in your town pile\bloc\whatever.

I want him lynched today.

[wgeurts]

ZZZX, I was fully wrong in mistrusting the town bloc.
I apologise for that as I said I would.
Now we lynch grey, nacho's law.
If nacho has this nailed I'm nomming him for a scummy.
VOTE: Grey

[wgeurts]

Me/ZZZX/ABR I'm 100% sure are town. MS 99.9%
Zar is scum and if grey isn't ooba is.

[ooba]

Guys just do me this favour and look at MS ISO with the knowledge that Kagami is scum.

[ZZZX]

VOTECOUNT 5.0

Not Voting (8) - Albert B. Rampage, GreyICE, Metal Sonic, Ooba, Pirate Mollie, wgeurts, Zar, ZZZX

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Deadline is 4/28 at 6 PM Eastern, which is in (expired on 2015-04-28 18:00:00).

so its 6v2 nightless atm

= 3 mislynches

cool

as long as our town block is correct we insta won.

lets say there is one scum in block

Town blok and 2 more.
which even there ends up as a 50% chance if we didnt hit the scum at all. i doubt the scum is high on the town list to survive anyway.

but this is interesting

My personal death list order btw (aka read liost >> scummiest/dies now >> townier

Grey(nacho guides us) >> Zar (my biggest current scum read) >> Ooba(i town read you man but its somewhat of a PoE) >> Wge (Idk how i should feel bout ya atm) >>> Mollie >> Metal >> ABR >> Me

@ooba i cant trust you enough to break hte block right now. if we hit one more scum we should survive even if he was scum anyway. shouldnt we make this our current goal?

[ZZZX]

Guys just do me this favour and look at MS ISO with the knowledge that Kagami is scum.

Fine

[wgeurts]

ZZZX, I'm town.
My play has been over shadowed by a better player, so now my only task is to win. That requires following the town bloc.
Mollie should be under me.
Otherwise I'm fine.

[ooba]

@ooba i cant trust you enough to break hte block right now. if we hit one more scum we should survive even if he was scum anyway. shouldnt we make this our current goal?

MS is scum - I know this now. We really need to not waste mislynches since I literally don't have that much confidence in 'Who's his partner?' read.

I'll say this though - Grey's town.

He has been since I read part of D1.

And I have to ask this - do you really see me making this post with a scum alignment and partners with Sotty and Kagami?

Can we flash wagon ooba?
Then lynch nacho?

On Page 43.

I'm town.

Plus if
a) Either of Nacho or GreyIce are scum
b) If at least one of Sotty or Kagami is NOT scum
I'll stop playing Mafia forever.

[wgeurts]

You said kagami would flip town ooba, let us have another lynch on grey.
If she flips town I'll listen and follow your vote as it's then probably more trustworthy than any other.
If grey flips scum we continue.
We have 3 mislynches, is this a deal?

[ZZZX]

MS is scum - I know this now. We really need to not waste mislynches since I literally don't have that much confidence in 'Who's his partner?' read.

iso-ing metal kinda makes him look weird. I am actually thinking about this...

also grey mind posting a death list btw?

also i promised to follow nacho plan no matter what. I follow my promises.

[ZZZX]

You said kagami would flip town ooba, let us have another lynch on grey.
If she flips town I'll listen and follow your vote as it's then probably more trustworthy than any other.
If grey flips scum we continue.
We have 3 mislynches, is this a deal?

this looks like what i have in mind.

[ooba]

You said kagami would flip town ooba, let us have another lynch on grey.
If she flips town I'll listen and follow your vote as it's then probably more trustworthy than any other.
If grey flips scum we continue.
We have 3 mislynches, is this a deal?

I changed my mind as soon as I removed the assumption that she's a mislynch.

Let me just point out what I see. Then you'll vote MS with me.

[ZZZX]

actually ooba i want to ask you something interesting.

what is your top TOWN read outside of the blok?

[ZZZX]

just as an extra safety net i need one mroe guy to build a semi 2ndary town block,

reason is simple

if there is a scum in the block and we have a safety net we can ensure things work out.

You see unless both town block and the person we vote for the 2ndary blok is scum we cant lose that way.

thoughts?

[ooba]

actually ooba i want to ask you something interesting.

what is your top TOWN read outside of the blok?

GreyIce - miles ahead top town for me.

[ooba]

just as an extra safety net i need one mroe guy to build a semi 2ndary town block,

reason is simple

if there is a scum in the block and we have a safety net we can ensure things work out.

You see unless both town block and the person we vote for the 2ndary blok is scum we cant lose that way.

thoughts?

I don't understand this secondary bloc thing.

[ZZZX]

actually ooba i want to ask you something interesting.

what is your top TOWN read outside of the blok?

GreyIce - miles ahead top town for me.

another guy other than grey btw?

[wgeurts]

No, you point it out and explain.
Then you vote ICE.
If ICE flips scum, we'll lynch zar.
If ICE flips town, we'll go for MS if you can actually convince us.

[wgeurts]

Ooba, I'm all ears.
We should do VCA tommorow anyway, I'll do so later.