Signs and Void (Game Over) [TM2015]

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Post Post #3450 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:06 am

Post by Oversoul »

I was constructing a longer post, but this will just have to do because I am out of time right now.

We are NOT going to waste our second lynch on another person like TSO. This means that Aronis is off the table for lynch today.
The only people that we should be discussing for lynch are ActionDan, Espeonage, Singersigner, Titus, and Untrod Tripod.
This means that all vanity votes on individuals other than the ones listed above should be consolidated onto those lynch candidates. AD, Espeonage, and Singer all had substantial wagons on them during the course of the day. The way the TSO wagon formed makes me think that one of these people is scum given the quickness and ease compared to the resistance on these main three. Titus is on the list because she is currently the largest wagon and I think there is a healthy amount of discussion right now concerning her alignment. I personally have a town read on Titus, but I think her posts are approaching levels of negative utility. Plus, Titus has a certain quality of inscrutability that makes me feel that I can never accurately read her. UT is on this list because of selfish reasons. But seriously, UT is scum and everyone should be voting him.

---

Untrod Tripod wrote:bro I think I've more than proven that I'm willing to throw my vote around

your reasoning is bad and you should feel bad

whatevs though, time is short and etc.

vote singer


That is not what my post said. Did you ignore parts of my post? I do not understand how you came to this conclusion given what I actually said in the post. My scum read on you is not because at the time you were not voting. It is your passive, reactive play. You are not actively scumhunting or earnestly trying to figure out the game. When I called you out, you had scum reads on both Singer and Espeonage who had viable wagons, yet you were not voting either of them. You were not actually trying to get them lynched, you were talking and making reads for the sake of talking and having reads. There is a difference.

This post is a perfect example of your passive and reactive play. You did not actually vote a wagon on your scum read until I called you out.

Also, I think you are contradicting yourself.
Untrod Tripod wrote:
Oversoul wrote:Which is it? An accurate example of your play in general? Or not?
While we're at it. Who are you scum reading?
What is the difference between your town play and your scum play if you are so aware of what is a "bad" example of your scum game? (which is also by your own admission your town game)

a post-restriction game where I replaced into essentially a doomed scumslot late in the game is going to be pretty different from one where I actually got to shape the slot the way I ordinarily would?

is that not patently obvious to you?


You are saying "Uncouth is a bad example of my scumplay" and "I play every game the same way". This is contradictory. By your own admission, you play every game the same way, regardless of alignment. ANY example of ANY of your play would then reflect on play. Sure, you could say that this is null, but what you are saying right now appears to me that there IS a difference between 1) your scum play, or else why try to fight on this point and 2) your play across alignments, again, why else would you try to fight this point.

More votes on UT, please.

---

Oversoul wrote:Gamma/ffery or whoever asked, I am starting from my own reads
I have finals today through next week which is why I am being very absent

I do think Singer is town and wonder why so many people think otherwise given Empire and Singer's posts.

Still haven't read Espeonage but feel less inclined to go there over my initial gut scum reads


ActionDan, is this the comment you're referring to? This is the comment that you are asking "Why"?

I didn't answer your why question because I don't think I ever said I had a gut scum read on Espeonage, or at least I can't remember it now and I can't find it in my ISO either. What I am trying to communicate with that bolded comment is that I don't have a read on Espeonage and I would rather go with a wagon where I at least have some basis for a read (my initial gut scum reads). Espeonage has lived comfortably in null land in my perspective of this game. He is a blind spot that I still have not been able to properly address.

I asked in general (from a theoretical perspective) if the move from gut scum read to disliking the wagon would *necessarily* be bad a thing because I don't think I actually did what you think I did in that post. Clearly something about that transition is causing you concern - what is it?

---

I'm working on a bigger post analyzing the components of the TSO wagon, but it is going to take a substantial amount of work and I probably should have allotted myself more than 24 hours to complete it because I don't actually think I am going to be able to finish it in time.
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Post Post #3451 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:09 am

Post by Titus »

*blink* That post looks really fucking town.

Shit...

Given Singer's team, I'm not sure how frequently they would know
why
I'm usually misunderstood, but that's usually the shtick that people push. I am starting to doubt my scumread on her since there's no one there to feed her the basis for doubting a scumread on me. How could she know that but for being town?

But then I go back to her inconsistencies and I think, how on earth can she actually be town?

@Oversoul, how am I approaching negative utlity?
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Post Post #3452 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:10 am

Post by Titus »

**that post by Singer
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Post Post #3453 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:11 am

Post by Titus »

@Oversoul, why is Aronis a "vanity wagon"? It's (I think) Ffery endorsed and the second largest wagon.
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Post Post #3454 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:16 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

Oversoul wrote:You are saying "Uncouth is a bad example of my scumplay" and "I play every game the same way". This is contradictory. By your own admission, you play every game the same way, regardless of alignment. ANY example of ANY of your play would then reflect on play. Sure, you could say that this is null, but what you are saying right now appears to me that there IS a difference between 1) your scum play, or else why try to fight on this point and 2) your play across alignments, again, why else would you try to fight this point.

it can still be shitty when you replace into a more-or-less confirmed scum slot late in the game. it cuts of a lot of your options. yeah my tone and approach are pretty much the same, but if you want to know how I would approach something you should pick a game where I am more able to manipulate the gamestate to my faction's advantage. take a look at MS Fantasy Camp 2 if you're into the whole meta thing (which it kind of seems like you are). I'm saying if you want to do some kind of tonal analysis or whatever it gives you a *really* narrow view of my approach as scum because my course was more or less set before I replaced in
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Post Post #3455 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:17 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

and I really don't understand why you're harping on it or why you think it's an inconsistency because it's pretty much by definition not
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Post Post #3456 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:17 am

Post by Aronis »

Titus wrote:@Oversoul, why is Aronis a "vanity wagon"? It's (I think) Ffery endorsed and the second largest wagon.

And ffery endorsed wagons always end great, right?
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Post Post #3457 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:19 am

Post by Oversoul »

Titus wrote:@Oversoul, how am I approaching negative utlity?


The sheer quantity of your posts is enough to drown town driven thought. It creates confusion and a smokescreen that the scum are better able to hide in. I don't mean to be offensive, but the content quality of your posts is not enough to offset the benefits given to scum.

pedit:

People went after TSO because he was an easy lynch. He was not really connected with the game and that made him vulnerable and an easy target. Plus, I think he was in the out-group. No one wants to lynch their friends on the first day. It is a subconcious action that seems to generally hold true, at least across the games I have played/observed. I don't think TSO had many friends in this game.

Aronis is in a similar position. I think Aronis is also in the out-group. I think Aronis is also disconnected from the game and that makes him a vulnerable/easy target. The information gained based on Aronis's interactions is negligible, just like the information gained from TSO's interactions was negligible. They both did not have connections because they were disconnected from the game. I think both TSO and Aronis are students and a lot of people seem to be forgetting that right now is finals season for American education.

Fferylt also endorsed the TSO wagon with a lot of force, so Fferylt supporting this wagon is not exactly the biggest vote of confidence. I actually really disagree with Fferylt on a lot of her reads/positions this game. I also think that she is doing a poor job of leading this town. I fear we are headed into a dark tunnel with no escape as long as Fferylt is at the helm. I think this is a function of the fact that Fferylt is an IC right now, which tends to skew perceptions of not only the IC itself, but also the other people in the game. No one really is trying to critically discuss the game with Fferylt so when shitty ideas like the TSO wagon are proposed no one is around to say "No, that is actually a shitty idea".

I actually find it disconcerting that we do not have much more interaction from Fferylt's teammates about this game given the fact that they are ALL DEAD. I would expect they would want to funnel all of their thoughts into the game through her given her confirmed town status. But that is a topic for another time. I know I have been neglecting my own teammates' games.
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Post Post #3458 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:20 am

Post by Oversoul »

I'll address you later, UT
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Post Post #3459 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:20 am

Post by fferyllt »

Untrod Tripod wrote:anyway, I already gave some, but I'll expand a bit further

Cheet I think is pretty town atm. Gamma seems pretty town. vezok I've been feeling better about lately so we can call him a tentative townread. GiF I was townreading but is sliding. bulba I was feeling weird about but honesty can't remember why. shadoweh seems oily to me but I'm not worried yet.

for scum my pool is singer, titus, mastin, gun to my head mayyyyyyyyyyybe oversoul but that'd take some work


this realist seriously needs explanation. Because you're scum pile consists of three tien players.
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Post Post #3460 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:21 am

Post by fferyllt »

God i hate phoneposting
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Post Post #3461 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:22 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

also calling for votes on someone else when you've stated that you want to look at a 1-in-3 group of people of different is pretty ineffective planning and just looks like you're trying to say things you think people want to hear and give yourself license to plop down a vote on one of the big wagons and make it look like some kind of principled stance

and no it's not the list of players, it's that you're putting on airs about it and trying to paint yourself as some kind of leader

you're not

you're just someone saying what literally everyone wants to hear. you've expressed an interest in voting for at least one of everyone's scumreads.

I'm not impressed

Aronis wrote:
Titus wrote:@Oversoul, why is Aronis a "vanity wagon"? It's (I think) Ffery endorsed and the second largest wagon.

And ffery endorsed wagons always end great, right?
we're doing this thing right now where we pretend that making a town bloc day 1 is a great idea and is the same thing as teamwork

Oversoul wrote:I'll address you later, UT
I can't tell you how exciting or unexpected that is

fferyllt wrote:
Untrod Tripod wrote:anyway, I already gave some, but I'll expand a bit further

Cheet I think is pretty town atm. Gamma seems pretty town. vezok I've been feeling better about lately so we can call him a tentative townread. GiF I was townreading but is sliding. bulba I was feeling weird about but honesty can't remember why. shadoweh seems oily to me but I'm not worried yet.

for scum my pool is singer, titus, mastin, gun to my head mayyyyyyyyyyybe oversoul but that'd take some work


this realist seriously needs explanation. Because you're scum pile consists of three tien players.
...tien? do you mean town? the last time I checked none of them had flipped, so you're talking out of your ass. being confirmed town doesn't make your reads infallible.
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Post Post #3462 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:27 am

Post by Titus »

@Oversoul,

Alright. Acknowledged. I'll try to be back in a few hours, trust Ffery and Mastina to lead to a better lynch this time and I'll respond to everything else then.
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Post Post #3463 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:31 am

Post by TellTaleHeart »

Oversoul wrote:We are NOT going to waste our second lynch on another person like TSO. This means that Aronis is off the table for lynch today.
The only people that we should be discussing for lynch are ActionDan, Espeonage, Singersigner, Titus, and Untrod Tripod.

"We're only lynching between these people because
I'm
scumreading them."
Titus, and now you?

Excuse me, this goes out to everyone in this game: Who the fuck do you people think you are?
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Post Post #3464 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:31 am

Post by TellTaleHeart »

I think pretty much everyone is in need of some form of ego check here.
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Post Post #3465 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:32 am

Post by Titus »

TellTaleHeart wrote:
Oversoul wrote:We are NOT going to waste our second lynch on another person like TSO. This means that Aronis is off the table for lynch today.
The only people that we should be discussing for lynch are ActionDan, Espeonage, Singersigner, Titus, and Untrod Tripod.

"We're only lynching between these people because
I'm
scumreading them."
Titus, and now you?

Excuse me, this goes out to everyone in this game: Who the fuck do you people think you are?


No. We're not lynching Mastina because she's in my townreads. I'm willing to compromise. I'm just not lynching obvious town.
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Post Post #3466 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:33 am

Post by Titus »

Sorry Oversoul...
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Post Post #3467 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:33 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

TellTaleHeart wrote:I think pretty much everyone is in need of some form of ego check here.

NO I AM THE BEST AND MOST IMPORTANT PERSON OF THEM ALL
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Post Post #3468 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:35 am

Post by Gammagooey »

Aronis wrote:
Titus wrote:@Oversoul, why is Aronis a "vanity wagon"? It's (I think) Ffery endorsed and the second largest wagon.

And ffery endorsed wagons always end great, right?

Would you like to add anything to today that isn't bitching about the confirmed town's opinion of you?
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Post Post #3469 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:39 am

Post by TellTaleHeart »

Titus wrote:No. We're not lynching Mastina because she's in my townreads. I'm willing to compromise. I'm just not lynching obvious town.

I'm not sure what feather you have up your ass about mastin being "obvtown" but it would be nice to have some sort of substantiation other than "she's town reading me and that makes me feel good."
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Post Post #3470 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:45 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

I predict we're all going to look back on today and laugh

not sure at who, but I'm excited for the future
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Post Post #3471 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:46 am

Post by TellTaleHeart »

I certainly hope so. I'm in a pretty shitty mood.
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Post Post #3472 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:50 am

Post by vezokpiraka »

TellTaleHeart wrote:I think pretty much everyone is in need of some form of ego check here.

Ego check in a mafia game?

Yeah sure. Lynches happen just because deadline's coming.
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Post Post #3473 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:04 am

Post by Aronis »

Gammagooey wrote:
Aronis wrote:
Titus wrote:@Oversoul, why is Aronis a "vanity wagon"? It's (I think) Ffery endorsed and the second largest wagon.

And ffery endorsed wagons always end great, right?

Would you like to add anything to today that isn't bitching about the confirmed town's opinion of you?

Sure. Ummm, Bulbazak would ge a good lurker lynch since you seem to like those. If you want a policy lynch, Titus is great because that'd cut the average posts per mafia day by about 15%. If you want a townread, Ut is a good one. If you want to setup speculation, ffery's probably a death miller.

And if you need any more insights, doesn't hesitate to ask!
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Post Post #3474 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:05 am

Post by Titus »

Spoiler: Mastina quotes to explain a townread on Mastina
mastin2 wrote:Actually, I'm an idiot.
I got that backwards.

Choice: Two
.
This
is the superior option, pretty sure.
Sorry.

mastin2 wrote:
In [url=/forum/viewtopic.php?p=6722310#p6722310]post 341[/url], Bulbazak wrote:I wouldn't put it past her to WIFOM everyone by not spending tokens on herself.
It was basically far, FAR more important to get the right games than the right alignment as far as I was concerned. Getting into THIS game was my request, because I've been playing extensively in Large Themes. As town, I typically either die early (this game, duh), or live long enough to give the scum a beating. I also figured that if I got scum, it would be a goldmine. I had my strategy all laid out. I had everything planned out. I didn't tell my team what it was in the off chance I got town (because I was feeling scum, just
feeling
it. Haha. THAT worked out well :?) so that I could use it in a future game instead, but basically, I knew that if I did well as scum in THIS game, if I brought my A-game, then I wouldn't just be showing off to the members of this game--I'd be demonstrating, proudly, for the first time in a full year, the full extent of my scumgame...to the ENTIRETY of mafiascum, effectively: I'd have fooled not 16 players, but 64, almost all of them being big-name players.

...And then I not only drew town, but dead woman walking town. :facepalm:

mastin2 wrote:
Titus wrote:@Bulba, how can you townread someone who has not posted?
By pretending he's me.


:P

(Also, for the curious, yes, it is in fact 3 am as I post this. And no, I am not done with my site duties yet. And yes, I do get up at...oh, I believe tomorrow it's 10 AM. Might be 9, I forget; I'll figure it out when my alarm goes off. When I say I come when I can...I REALLY mean, I come when I can...and that the times I can come are frequently late at night, VERY late at night.)

mastin2 wrote:
Shadoweh wrote:
mastin2 wrote:
Shadoweh wrote:You think Zar/Tammy is possible scum on scum? :V
Tammy
should
be the first person to tell you I'd be a fool
not
to consider it.
Do you have any reasons to suspect this based on reality rather then FUD paranoia?
Sort
-of.
Tammy could be scum.
Zar could be scum and has fairly decent chances of being scum.
I do not think their interactions are such where Tammy
must
be town if Zar is scum. I can, very easily, plausibly see this as scum-scum distancing. Do I think it is, no. Do I think it ISN'T, though, that is ALSO a no. It's a, "in the back of my mind" type thing, stronger than paranoia but weaker than actual proper suspicion, where I'll have my eye on it the entire time and will not pass judgement until I'm sure.

(Yes, I'm way back here.)

mastin2 wrote:
hitogoroshi wrote:(6)
TellTaleHeart:
Titus, Empire, Tammy, Aronis, Marquis, vezokpiraka [L-4]
(1)
Bulbazak:
Gammagooey
(1)
GuyInFreezer:
ChannelDelibird
(1)
Tammy:
Espeonage
(1)
Aronis:
Bulbazak
(0)
Gammagooey:
(Bulbazak)
:igmeou:

That TTH wagon looks bad.
I remember thinking vezok was town, so not going there, and Tammy I'm assuming at this point to just be town, but this is just a whole bunch of :shifty: to me.

...Incidentally, the (1) voters aren't so great, either. Gamma's probtown but I'm not feeling a Bulba wagon; CDB's okay but I've got nuthin' on GIF, Esp I voted for good reason, and Bulba's not great though I'm at least
interested
in his Aronis vote. (His prior Gamma vote doesn't look good, though.)

Not Voting I cut out since, y'know, daystart.

mastin2 wrote:
Shadoweh wrote:Simply put, DV is on my team's list of expected nightkills, so detecting him is suspicious.
Is
that
it?

...Seriously?
THAT?
It?

Investigating Deas.Vail.

:lol:

I'm sorry. Can't help it. Yeah, the TTH wagon is BS.

mastin2 wrote:
Titus wrote:Can you please hit 1534??
There was nothing for me to say about it.

I think scum are scum; I don't think they're any more nor less likely to attack a player because of another scum doing the same if both are. Nor do I think they would plan an attack--it's theoretically possible, but not exactly probable. That doesn't mean they haven't done the attack, though.

mastin2 wrote:For those who don't get it, yes, I am saying Esp is scum, like Toon was scum. The push there seems good.
The push on TTH is horrible, and yes, Bulb is right in his reasoning, too. (Incidentally, it increases the townread there, so IF--and this is becoming an increasingly HUGE if--Bulb's scum, his defense is a smart one.) His reasoning is (almost) my reasoning. The push is just bad, and the people that supported the wagon are mostly bad.

mastin2 wrote:
Bulbazak wrote:(7)
TellTaleHeart:
Titus,
Empire
,
Tammy
,
Aronis, Marquis
,
vezokpiraka
, Cheetory6
(ChannelDelibrd)
[L-3]
Yeah, two scum max.

mastin2 wrote:
Bulbazak wrote:(10)
Bulbazak:
DeasVail
, Gammagooey, Shadoweh, Cheetory6, Titus,
vezokpiraka
, GuyInFreezer, Aronis,
Tammy
, T S O
Also, the following people tried to cast bane votes on me after the hammer: CDB, UT
This, incidentally, is the strongest proof I have that my reads aren't perfect. Gamma's a townread, Shadow's getting a pass, Cheet looks town enough, I'm not interested in pursuing Titus, so really that leaves GIF, Aronis (who was a townread but I admit Bulba's sparked my interest in) and TSO for there to be scum aside from DV.

Not the best of odds.
I mean, logically, it makes no sense for there to be only one scum on the wagon.
But that's what my gut says.

Or that if there is a second, it's GIF. But that's just POE on thinking not-Aronis and not-TSO and not-the-people-I'm-passing. Thus the one. (Gut.)

@TTH, I've quoted selected posts from Mastina's ISO here that look town to me. She looks town because I see the same fucking thought process. Given how wierd and awkward I am (let's be face it, I'll never be a cool kid) but the thought process is my own. I don't see how Mastina can fake my thought process given the fact that my opinion is not that of consensus.

Post 1: Post 1 reads similarly to what I'd do if I made a theory mistake. Well my bad. Correct and move on.

Post 2: This reads like genuine motivation for this game. I wanted to get into this game to prove to the best players of mafiascum my being an asset to town. Yes, very ego motivated reason. I am that way and so is Mastina. The fact she says this is pretty town.

Post 3: She's encouraging me to think about what's said as much as what isn't said at all. She didn't try to reach back in Bulba's ISO for a reason, which would benefit her much better as scum.

Post 4: This is a town waffle. This interaction is wierd but I can't figure out why. It's not waffling from the presumption something's off there.

The rest few posts focus more on wagon analysis, which is exactly how I was seeing the wagons but for the numbers of expected scum. I don't really look for an "expected number" but an expected vote relationship. Her reaction in comparing the TTH wagon to the Bulba wagon makes sense.

The last post says, hey my reads aren't perfect and the empirical data says as much. I'm taking it in and redoing the analysis.


I don't see anything that's faked at all. Mastina's good scum, but you can't fake my wavelength.


So yeah I don't care if I'm annoying Oversoul by posting. I'm going to try to make this a quality post to explain to you
why
Mastina is obvious town from my perspective.
Show
The scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx

You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin

GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy

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