White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 3.01

Aneninen (1) - Ankamius
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) - BlueBloodedToffee

Not Voting (7) - Aneninen, Antihero, Cogito Ergo Sum, ika, Regfan, theelkspeaks, Zachrulez

With 9 alive, it will take 5 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, May 11, 2015, at 12:00 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-05-11 12:00:00).

[Ankamius]

When I put weird stuff out there that is easy to attack, generally those who are most eager to jump onto it are scum. There's also these:

(7) Ankamius, 238 – I forgot that he's in the game and that's not a good sign. Scumreading Llamar? A Llamar vote from CheeryDog, in 251. And Ankamius follows... 255. (Although I think he scumread him before.) And one from BBT in 284... CheeryDog jumped off in 294...

(14) Ankamius, 481 – scumreading Ika now. Either Ika's indeed scum or some scums are picking him for a later mislynch or a vote-parking. (Maybe some of them wanted to stay away from the Aeronaut-wagon...) And Ankamius voted for Llamar in his next post!!!

(10) Ankamius, 592–595 – shadowing a possible Ika-wagon. Telling that he was reading Aeronaut. Posted very little content about him later. CheeryDog pointed out something similar, I guess, in 647.

The first of which says nothing and leads nowhere that I can see.
The second of which is absurdly lazy, ignores most of my post, and tries to spin me in a scumteam with ika all at the same time.
The third is just bad. He knows I was scumreading Ika before that post, so it shouldn't be surprising at all that I'm willing to see ika hang. He also has seen me play as both town and scum and should have a general idea that being concise and not using a lot of words is how I generally go about things, so his Aeronaut point is hollow. His Cheery Dog point is pure fluff and doesn't actually say anything.

Basically, he's either overreacting to things or just posting fluff to pretend to get a read on me. It doesn't make sense from a town perspective.

Not to mention his reads and comments have had an intensity dissonance throughout his catchup.

Also this:

The scummiest thing about CES is his late-Day1 gameplay and there were other things too. But Wgeurts said that my read is bad on him.
I, myself, unsure about CheeryDog, although a couple of things about his recent play are scummy. (See above!)

Can someone summarize the case against CES and against CheeryDog for me?

Most preferably, Zach, BBT or Antihero – they look very town and they're on either of those wagons.

He read through the whole game and has a scum read on both the wagons in some way and clearly has been reading into interactions to some extent, yet he has to ask people to summarize cases on those slots. This is especially bad with CES since from what I can tell, Anen is scumreading CES and is mainly hesitating because his teammate is shutting it down; so why is he asking for a scumcase on him and not putting reasons why he might be town in mind?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

However much I disliked how close we got to deadline as it happened, I can appreciate it now that I'm looking back on it, knowing that Cheery Dog flipped town. All the toe-dragging looks very different now that we know the choice was between two town players. Scum had absolutely very little incentive to get involved in that fight while I don't understand how a townie could just let the Cheery Dog vs. me fight pass them by. People that look bad there are Aneninen, theelkspeaks and Ankamius (BBT also let the deadline pass by him a bit to some extent, but that's definitely a lower level of scumminess).

Ankamius, why did you unvote me and then just skedaddle? I don't see where that came from at all.

[Ankamius]

Because my mind was a clusterfuck of being in my tunnel and adjusting my reads based on that entire engagement and I couldn't untangle it at the time.

[Ankamius]

Also how did you come to the conclusion that scum would want to stay out of the Cheery vs Aero business while town would be more invested in it? I would expect scum to want to keep the status quo up and prevent complications from showing up to become either another possible wagon or increase the amount of info from the day.

[Zachrulez]

Also how did you come to the conclusion that scum would want to stay out of the Cheery vs Aero business while town would be more invested in it? I would expect scum to want to keep the status quo up and prevent complications from showing up to become either another possible wagon or increase the amount of info from the day.

There's like 3 basic problems here.

One is this.

Because my mind was a clusterfuck of being in my tunnel and adjusting my reads based on that entire engagement and I couldn't untangle it at the time.

Saying your mind is a clusterfuck doesn't change your basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons. It doesn't ring genuine to me.

Second problem is the fact that your first vote today is OFF WAGON.

Not to mention the third problem which isn't specific to you is that the kill was once again ON wagon. I'm finding it problematic to argue the majority of the scum team being on the lynch bandwagons when doing so narrows the field on that premise.

Also you reasoning why Tammy was going to die and then avoiding engagement of her at the end of the day saying you'd get to it if it was still relevant and then Tammy actually dying is like the cherry on top of the sundae.

VOTE: Ankamius

[Zachrulez]

Oh also the arguments against lynching Cheery, arguing that he was town, ect. while effectively sealing his fate by unvoting CES. You weren't just showing lack of conviction there, you were making the 'scum driven' mislynch happen.

[Ankamius]

Saying your mind is a clusterfuck doesn't change your basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons. It doesn't ring genuine to me.

What major wagons? CES + Cheery Dog? When?

Not to mention the third problem which isn't specific to you is that the kill was once again ON wagon. I'm finding it problematic to argue the majority of the scum team being on the lynch bandwagons when doing so narrows the field on that premise.

Assuming you mean at the end of day, then that's the default premise unless I think that Anen+elk is a scumteam. Even before that, the only real addition to that list is ika, so...?

Also you reasoning why Tammy was going to die and then avoiding engagement of her at the end of the day saying you'd get to it if it was still relevant and then Tammy actually dying is like the cherry on top of the sundae.

The fact that no one seemed to agree with it at all helped in making me less sure that it would actually happen.

Why do you think Tammy died last night?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Because my mind was a clusterfuck of being in my tunnel and adjusting my reads based on that entire engagement and I couldn't untangle it at the time.

What engagement? When I look back at those pages, you're talking quite casually, offering to be a conduit for mollie. You're barely talking about me, let alone express the sentiment that I might be town, so why the sudden unvote?

[Zachrulez]

Saying your mind is a clusterfuck doesn't change your basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons. It doesn't ring genuine to me.

What major wagons? CES + Cheery Dog? When?

The fact that no one seemed to agree with it at all helped in making me less sure that it would actually happen.

Why do you think Tammy died last night?

I'm presuming the reason she died was because you shot her.

now why would tammy be the NK ank?

Because she's widely townread and it doesn't dispel any of the tension on the game if she dies.

[Zachrulez]

This part got eaten while making my post somehow.

Saying your mind is a clusterfuck doesn't change your basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons. It doesn't ring genuine to me.

What major wagons? CES + Cheery Dog? When?

The lynching wagons.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

When did he say that?

[Zachrulez]

Are you responding to me? If so what specific part are you asking about there?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm not really clear where you're getting the "basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons" from?

Also how did you come to the conclusion that scum would want to stay out of the Cheery vs Aero business while town would be more invested in it? I would expect scum to want to keep the status quo up and prevent complications from showing up to become either another possible wagon or increase the amount of info from the day.

I'm going to assume Cheery vs. Aero is supposed to be Cheery vs. me because I'm not sure what you're talking about otherwise. Day 1 didn't come that close to deadline.

The end of Day 2 felt pretty polarized in terms of it being either me or Cheery, so the only thing scum could do there was push a mislynch and look bad if their target flipped. That is inherently not attractive for scum and both theelkspeaks and Aneninen seem like players that might shy away from that as scum; on the other hand, as town, Yesterday felt like it could be really important and especially before Tammy and ika voted Cheery Dog, it felt like elk's and Aneninen's votes could have been crucial to getting scum lynched.

[ika]

ces: why do you think tammy died of regfan like you predicted

[Ankamius]

Because my mind was a clusterfuck of being in my tunnel and adjusting my reads based on that entire engagement and I couldn't untangle it at the time.

What engagement? When I look back at those pages, you're talking quite casually, offering to be a conduit for mollie. You're barely talking about me, let alone express the sentiment that I might be town, so why the sudden unvote?

As for the unvote, my understanding of the game itself shifted as I got reads from the engagement. Regfan's side of the engagement was town, and it feels really weird to me when I think about you being scum with a full PoE list alongside two other town (cheery dog being town because scum vs scum wagons look bleh), the amount of resistance to the D1 townbloc overall feels off.

So if I assume that all three of you were town, then the resistance makes more sense. It was a safe bet that someone in the PoE list was going to be lynched, and it would set up future towncred to oppose it anyway, or in CheeryDog-scum case it would be less suspicious to oppose it early than the day their scumpartner would hang.

I didn't go into this yesterday because I was tunneling, basically.

[Ankamius]

Saying your mind is a clusterfuck doesn't change your basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons. It doesn't ring genuine to me.

What major wagons? CES + Cheery Dog? When?

The fact that no one seemed to agree with it at all helped in making me less sure that it would actually happen.

Why do you think Tammy died last night?

I'm presuming the reason she died was because you shot her.

now why would tammy be the NK ank?

Because she's widely townread and it doesn't dispel any of the tension on the game if she dies.

Thank you, smartass. Answer it seriously, please.

[Ankamius]

This part got eaten while making my post somehow.

Saying your mind is a clusterfuck doesn't change your basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons. It doesn't ring genuine to me.

What major wagons? CES + Cheery Dog? When?

The lynching wagons.

You're going to have to specify when.

[Zachrulez]

I'm referring to both lynch wagons.

mollie read marble as town early and switched it up later on. Do you want me to ask what her reasoning was? She never went into it in the thread.

But you just said that him proclaiming he was town and really good at this game was a significant reason why every single one of your teammates was scum reading him.

I was talking about Bulba and Eddie very early on in the game when we initially synced in our games. This was before mollie replaced into the game.

mollie doesn't think she can read CES even on a good day, thinks that CD is a player that is much better than he looks and just needs to be engaged, and thinks BBT is town right now (doesn't think the aggression is scum) although keeping an eye on him to see if his play deteriorates is advised.

Like right here is a rare mention Ank makes of Cheery where he relays a comment from Mollie about how Cheery needs to be engaged to play well.

So why is he not really making an effort to engage Cheery? Wouldn't that be a good way to read him?

I don't really need to sort Cheery when the entire situation around his wagon looks more like a scum directed mislynch than anything else.

CES + Regfan is the most likely combo. It makes sense with the day 1 tri-read thing they had going on and CES' posting about Aeronaut flipping town but still going along that list anyway. There's other possible combos but it doesn't feel consistent with the game.

PEdit: @Zachrulez

Here's his commentary on the Aero wagon

theelkspeaks: Bulbazak wants to know if #387 is paraphrased.

Ank, explain that CES scum read for me especially in light of your "reads reset" comment in Post 683.

I hatehatehate his comment about one slot in his scumlist being town making the rest more likely. Nothing about that post looked town to me.

Right, so Oversoul's town. theelkspeaks is probably town. I feel okay about Regfan. ika still looks slimy, but I'll wait to see if GIF replaces in and try to read him instead. CES is scum.

I have no idea why Llamarble was killed. My theory of most of the scum being off wagon combines the factors of how scummy Aero looked, how the wagon formed, and where the nightkill was. (With the idea being that scum would tend to kill where they're not hiding.)

Can you go into detail more here please?

It's the zachrulez (tm) wagon analyzer that consists of how I see things from my own point of view. It should be pretty easy to actually see that point of view. I think my position is pretty clear and that your question delves more into gaining activity by making a theory argument that won't actually make any real productive mark in the game.

Don't even try this crap. If it should be so easy to see this point of view, then it shouldn't be difficult to explain at all either.

If Aeronaut was so scummy, why would scum be off the wagon? Scum would just as easily have hopped on to get towncred.
How does the way the wagon formed indicate scum would be off the wagon? I can't think of a single situation where scum would specifically want to all be off of a town wagon unless they really needed that slot alive, which I strongly doubt is the case here.
Why would Llamarble dying indicate scum would be off the wagon? This one just mystifies me, since it more likely indicates that town were the ones that started the wagon... which means scum would want to hop on for towncred.

Ankamius: Think he could easily be scum, and I don't really know why he suspects who he does. Does he think Cheery Dog is town? Why? Why is Ika scum? Why is CES scum?

Looking through his iso I just found this as well.

Already answered CES-scum. I don't have a read on Cheery Dog right now. Ika's nullish scum; his posts today rub me the wrong way but not in a red-alert type of way.

Which waffles on having a read on Cheery at all, though as I pointed out in other quotes throughout the day, Ank frequently referred to Cheery as town, or referred to any pressure on him as being a likely mislynch target pushed by scum.

[Ankamius]

Also how did you come to the conclusion that scum would want to stay out of the Cheery vs Aero business while town would be more invested in it? I would expect scum to want to keep the status quo up and prevent complications from showing up to become either another possible wagon or increase the amount of info from the day.

I'm going to assume Cheery vs. Aero is supposed to be Cheery vs. me because I'm not sure what you're talking about otherwise. Day 1 didn't come that close to deadline.

The end of Day 2 felt pretty polarized in terms of it being either me or Cheery, so the only thing scum could do there was push a mislynch and look bad if their target flipped. That is inherently not attractive for scum and both theelkspeaks and Aneninen seem like players that might shy away from that as scum; on the other hand, as town, Yesterday felt like it could be really important and especially before Tammy and ika voted Cheery Dog, it felt like elk's and Aneninen's votes could have been crucial to getting scum lynched.

I had assumed you were talking about the day one lynches since both of them are now confirmed.

What do you make of Aneninen's catchup reads then?

[Zachrulez]

My quoting is an absolute wreck on that last part

[Zachrulez]

There I think this fixes that last part.

Looking through his iso I just found this as well.

Ankamius: Think he could easily be scum, and I don't really know why he suspects who he does. Does he think Cheery Dog is town? Why? Why is Ika scum? Why is CES scum?

Already answered CES-scum. I don't have a read on Cheery Dog right now. Ika's nullish scum; his posts today rub me the wrong way but not in a red-alert type of way.

Which waffles on having a read on Cheery at all, though as I pointed out in other quotes throughout the day, Ank frequently referred to Cheery as town, or referred to any pressure on him as being a likely mislynch target pushed by scum.[/quote]

[Zachrulez]

Saying your mind is a clusterfuck doesn't change your basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons. It doesn't ring genuine to me.

What major wagons? CES + Cheery Dog? When?

The fact that no one seemed to agree with it at all helped in making me less sure that it would actually happen.

Why do you think Tammy died last night?

I'm presuming the reason she died was because you shot her.

now why would tammy be the NK ank?

Because she's widely townread and it doesn't dispel any of the tension on the game if she dies.

Thank you, smartass. Answer it seriously, please.

That would be a serious answer.

[Ankamius]

Well, yeah I was leaning towards Cheery Dog being a counterwagon to scum. I was scumreading CES for most of the game up to that point.

I don't understand the relevance of thinking there would be scum on a town lynch wagon?

#753 was posted when there were two wagons of two players each; I'm pretty sure I never said he was a counterwagon to scum until he had a more sizable wagon on him. What's the context to that post that makes it scum?

[Ankamius]

Zach are you suggesting that I telegraphed what I would do that night and why when it was already clear my standing was rapidly decreasing?