Signs and Void (Game Over) [TM2015]

[Gammagooey]

tbf to singer

we were all quite drunk at that point

i was basically incapacitated when deadline came around

[Cheetory6]

I greatly disagree with this. We have a lot of powerful tools at our disposal now and a better head collectively about this game. I do not think we should let this day drag on, but I think we should try to avoid rushing through things.

There's a difference between minor day and major day.
I'm also just kind of feeling impatient. I really want a scumflip. During minor day there's not much of a way to tangibly work towards that.

Why the twitch?

Was kind of making a joke at my own expense.

I want to lynch him.

I'm actually feeling reasonably confident that Espeonage is town.

[ChannelDelibird]

@CDB...did you ask hito what a track would return as a result to any actions that didn't go through because of sign shenanigans? No result? Or no response?

If you mean 'what would happen if my target submitted an incorrect sign?' then no, I actually haven't. I'd sort of assumed that a failure to match sign means you technically don't use an action, but you bringing it up makes me realise that I don't have a particular reason for that to be true instead of any other possible interpretation. I will ask hito about it.

CDB

, can members of your team run an analysis to see how many actual days we have left? I'm worried that once another day or so has passed this game is going to thin out very quickly and we may be at death's doorstep quicker than we think.

I assume you mean CES? I'll ask. The thought has occurred to me. Given that this game is presumably vaguely intended to run on a similar timeframe as the other Team Mafia games, it can't be that hard for scum to start getting off multiple kills per Night.

[ChannelDelibird]

Espeonage's attitude towards self-Baning Today feels pretty VT. I'm not sure I'd lynch him any more, despite my anger that he didn't die Yesterday.

[Oversoul]

There's a difference between minor day and major day.
I'm also just kind of feeling impatient. I really want a scumflip. During minor day there's not much of a way to tangibly work towards that.

Yes. I realize there is a difference.
I think looking forward, minor days are going to be very important. Now scum will be able to build up a reservoir of known signs for players so they can start popping off two players a night.

What is your read on Gamma?
Why do you think that Espeonage is town?

[ActionDan]

Espeonage's attitude towards self-Baning Today feels pretty VT. I'm not sure I'd lynch him any more, despite my anger that he didn't die Yesterday.

I can and am seeing it as scum knowing that they're living past their expiration date

[Cheetory6]

Kind of leaning townish on Gamma?
My read on Espeonage is kind of hard to explain atm. A combination of a gut feeling that the lynch would have been more likely to go through if he was scum that I can't really put into words and the fact that I'm still alive atm.

[Oversoul]

Espeonage's attitude towards self-Baning Today feels pretty VT. I'm not sure I'd lynch him any more, despite my anger that he didn't die Yesterday.

Why does it feel VT? It felt forced to me. A self-bane appeases the town and says "look at how sacrificial I am being" when in reality it hurts the town a lot. Espeonage's self-bane is more survivalistic than it is pro-town. If he was town he would accept his fate and try to put the bane on someone where it might actually negatively affect that person. The self-bane looks to be entirely for the theatrics of it.

It literally accomplishes nothing on a VT. Sure you could make the argument that it is arguably less efficient for us to try and bane a goon who only has a nightkill, but we don't even know if Espeonage is a goon so why take that chance?

No one had an issue with his claim or suspects he might be a scum nefariously doing other things with his role. I think this bane should be reserved for people that we think have powers in addition to the nightkill.

[Oversoul]

Kind of leaning townish on Gamma?
My read on Espeonage is kind of hard to explain atm. A combination of a gut feeling that the lynch would have been more likely to go through if he was scum that I can't really put into words and the fact that I'm still alive atm.

*twitch*

Don't make this harder than it has to be Cheetory.

Why are you leaning town on Gamma?
Why does your continued existence point towards Espeonage as town?

[Cheetory6]

Don't make this harder than it has to be Cheetory.

...;D

Why are you leaning town on Gamma?
Why does your continued existence point towards Espeonage as town?

i) Because he felt town at the end of the last major day cycle? I haven't like ISOdived him or anything so my read isn't particularly strong. I'm just going off of how I've felt following his posts the last little while.
ii) Because I don't think Espeonage would lie about detecting me and I think that scum would have killed me last night if they thought they could get away with it.

[singersigner]

Espeonage's attitude towards self-Baning Today feels pretty VT. I'm not sure I'd lynch him any more, despite my anger that he didn't die Yesterday.

I can and am seeing it as scum knowing that they're living past their expiration date

Why would that make him more likely to sabotage the rest of his scum team?

@Oversoul...I wasn't actively making the choice to not lynch Espy at the time until I decided not to vote him when I maybe could've had the opportunity? I would've hammered for sure, but I didn't see anyone put him at L-1 so I gambled in waiting. In hindsight someone could've been doing the same thing I did, which was poor choices. But it makes me feel like if he ever flips town, all of the scum would've already been at his wagon considering no one else moved their vote to ensure a lynch. Doesn't make me want to lynch him 'just to see' though.

[Cheetory6]

singer.
I'm giving you a snooty glare right now.
That reasoning for not voting espe is silly at best. -.-

[ChannelDelibird]

Why does it feel VT? It felt forced to me. A self-bane appeases the town and says "look at how sacrificial I am being" when in reality it hurts the town a lot. Espeonage's self-bane is more survivalistic than it is pro-town. If he was town he would accept his fate and try to put the bane on someone where it might actually negatively affect that person. The self-bane looks to be entirely for the theatrics of it.

It literally accomplishes nothing on a VT. Sure you could make the argument that it is arguably less efficient for us to try and bane a goon who only has a nightkill, but we don't even know if Espeonage is a goon so why take that chance?

"Accept his fate"? Even considering that he was the last-minute wagon at the end of Yesterday, I don't think that Espeonage's imminent demise is a done deal, and I think the chaos of that run up to deadline makes it pretty clear that we could easily go in a lot of different directions. Whether good play or not, I see a lot of VTs going "well, I'm just a VT, it's not so bad if I get lynched" and this feels like a less damaging version of that. As things stand, if we want to avoid giving away too much information by debating whether or not we think people have scum power roles, Espeonage is the safest Bane as a claimed VT with more suspicion than many. I can see him taking this attitude as town in that situation, for sure.

No one had an issue with his claim or suspects he might be a scum nefariously doing other things with his role. I think this bane should be reserved for people that we think have powers in addition to the nightkill.

My problem with the concept us specifically trying to Bane powered scum is that it potentially draws out even more power-role claims, which risks hurting us a lot. I'm not sure that there's an elegant way to do it, even though I definitely agree with you on the principle of the thing.

[hitogoroshi]

VC 102 (Minor Day 2, VC 4)

Bane:

Target player may not submit actions this Major Night.

(3)

Espeonage:

ActionDan, Cheetory6, Espeonage [L-6]
(3)

mastin2:

Gammagooey, vezokpiraka, TellTaleHeart [L-6]
(2)

singersigner:

Titus, mastin2
(1)

Titus:

singersigner
(1)

Aronis:

Shadoweh

(7)

No Bane Vote:

Aronis, Bulbazak, ChannelDelibird, Deasvail, Formerfish, Oversoul, Untrod Tripod

(TellTaleHeart)

With 17 players alive it's 9 to Bane. Minor Day One ends on Monday, May 4th at 8:00 PM CST.

Minor Day One Deadline

(expired on 2015-05-04 20:00:00)

@hitomod...does the bane affect passive abilities or only active abilities/actions?

It's anything you submit. It wouldn't affect passive abilities because you don't submit anything for a passive ability.

Hito, does the Bane prohibit factional abilities AND active abilities? If so, would a strongman passive allow either factional/active abilities to go through, despite the bane?

Yes, it also stops Factional abilities, since they are abilities you submit. This doesn't resolve in action resolution as a block; it resolves explicitly as "no action submission allowed". So mechanics that interact with blocks are irrelevant for this Bane.

[Cheetory6]

I'm gonna move AD up to my townish pile.

[singersigner]

I know she hasn't responded to this point yet, but something just seriously feels off about Titus having this serious insight as to why GiF died 'to set her up' despite not really having any reason to believe that, and then not being able to offer how anyone would've known that only she would be able to pick up his breadcrumb? I get that I'm reading bleeding scum from everything she posts now, but even through rose colored glasses that's shady.

@Titus...can you also comment on my assertion about our misunderstanding with regards to meta, and elaborate on the point above as much as possible?

@Cheetory...you're right, it is! Womp womp.

[Oversoul]

I'm fairly happy that GiF died. I had a mild scum suspicion on him given his play yesterday.
I know this is probably too little, too late. But you all will have to deal.

Also, ffery, would you endorse a flashwagon on TSO?

Yes! Yes we do! Very much so.

Mastin

, how involved is your team with your reads/this game? Why did you want TSO lynched?

Ffery and Mastina agree on TSO.

VOTE: TSO

Seriously, this should take off.

Titus

- What was your opinion about TSO? Other than sycophantic attitude?

The big wigs think it is a good idea! It must be!

vote TSO

wheeeeeeeeeee!

wheeeeeeeee!

Untrod Tripod/UT

, I take it you just wanted to *any* lynch to happen?

gonna do this since his popping in and mentioning regfan's reads while not trying to push AD's lynch or explain why he isn't putting stock into regfan's AD read does seem actually pretty bad.

VOTE: TSO

Gamma

, this was enough to remove the town feelings that you felt about his early game?

Oh wow, ok, I just wanted to check the votecount first but apparently there are still only like three votes on him?

vote: T S O

So,

Singer

, no actual reasons for wanting TSO dead?

vote tso

This wagon feels very strange, but I think scum as at the end of the tunnel.

Vezok

, what specifically about TSO did you think was scummy?

Point on TSO ignoring his teammate's read on AD while voting for him does look a little bad.
He should at least respond to that instead of flailing about how his wagon is bad and singer's vote is bad.
VOTE: TSO

Cheetory

- Why is that bad? When he brought it up?

VOTE: Tso

Fine.

ActionDan

, so what was the reasoning for this vote? The fact that he felt scummy recently?

TSO I think you should claim soon.

Mostly because I want your blood at this point and think you're actually a scum lynch that can finally happen but I still feel that I should give a warning that I will totally endorse anyone and everyone hammering you even without a claim given how bad I think a lot of people are at quickly processing claims (in relation to alignments) correctly and that you just don't really have any strong towntells that are going to be making anyone slow down on this.

This read materialized fairly quickly... in the 5 pages? that the TSO wagon existed. No, in the

11 HOURS

the wagon existed.

This is just another random lynch that won't give much info if it's town. :/ TSO was v/la for a week, it's not weird that he dropped off, and I thought he was active and townie when he was posting. However since this seems to be Dan vs TSO I would rather vote TSO. I do not condone this. >:| He had best claim, we were suposed to have lynched by now. Setting the deadline later was stupid, we'd already had Fake Day 1 and we should have known we have special procrastination powers. I wish I had considered that sooner. At least we're learning when this presumably happens again tomorrow.

What is even going on in this post? Does this mean you find AD townier than TSO?
What deadline are talking about here?

GIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIF!

VOTE: TSO

GiF

, was the primary reason for this vote just to lynch someone?

Had a townread on him earlier, have almost no understanding of why this wagon exists, feel bad for doing it so uninformed but jesus christ we need a flip so badly

VOTE: T S O

Fuck's sake, can't believe I forgot to even consider whether or not he had claimed. Chalking it up to having gone beyond desperation in how long it has taken us to get this far

CDB

, is that how you are supposed to play as town? You just lynch people because it is convenient?

VOTE: Aronis

There is an enormous pile of people I would murder at this point though, especially if pointed at by ffery

Is Fferylt your keeper now? Especially after her brilliant TSO flashwagon?

---

I have an enormous issue with how the TSO wagon formed. It was ill-fated, clearly a frustration lynch, and entirely premature. It was not even a deadline lynch, people. How none of you saw the warning signs to the growth of the lynch is beyond me.
Half of these votes on his bloody wagon on the surface are baseless. I did not think any of the main wagons up to the TSO wagon could be on scum given the general attitude of those being wagoned and the reasons for the wagon did not seem entirely strong. Now, I'm not so sure. I think scum saw the TSO wagon as an easy way out.

So that is where I will begin with my analysis.
I will now be going through the ISOs of everyone on this wagon to see how this TSO read developed (other than the ones who are dead like fferylt and GiF).

---

Hm. Fair point about Espeonage, Cheetory. That is making me reconsider him. I do have major issues with his self-bane.
Singer, why were you hiding from Reck and Gamma though?

Pedit:

The point about VT's agreeing to their own lynch is what I mean. Espeonage CLEARLY thinks that he is going to die today, hence the self-bane. What he should realize, as a towns person, that the bane is better used to try and prevent power roles from using their power, not for VTs in the off chance they are going to night kill.

Sure, he might not want to risk outting further power roles and that is why he has chosen to be the bane today, but a town power role should not be claiming today, even if they are baned. It is ONE night. I doubt whoever IS BANED is going to be a nightkill target because the baned person presumably has a healthy amount of suspicion on them.

I agree with you that we probably are putting ourselves at more risk to try and bane a power role, but I think at this point we need to take that risk.

[Oversoul]

oops, forgot to remove the GiF quote when formulating that

[ChannelDelibird]

Btw, Oversoul, haven't heard from CES yet but Patrick doesn't understand why you've reached out to us with a question that's relatively easy to figure out no matter who you are. But anyway, here's what the two of us have worked out:

As things stand, on the information available to us, scum could kill a maximum of twice per Major Night and we can lynch twice per Major Day. With four scum alive, we would be in LyLo by Major Day Four if we lynch town at every opportunity and scum kill as many people as possible (and none of the dead are Alquin).

If Alquin were to be lynched Today or killed Tonight, we could lose as early as Major Night 3 if scum get everyone's signs right.

[Oversoul]

Btw, Oversoul, haven't heard from CES yet but Patrick doesn't understand why you've reached out to us with a question that's relatively easy to figure out no matter who you are. But anyway, here's what the two of us have worked out:

As things stand, on the information available to us, scum could kill a maximum of twice per Major Night and we can lynch twice per Major Day. With four scum alive, we would be in LyLo by Major Day Four if we lynch town at every opportunity and scum kill as many people as possible (and none of the dead are Alquin).

If Alquin were to be lynched Today or killed Tonight, we could lose as early as Major Night 3 if scum get everyone's signs right.

Two reasons

1. I'm lazy
2. CES + Patrick seemed to be fairly math-y people from what I remembered, so I figured it would be easiest for them to quickly do the analysis

[Cheetory6]

Oh my god I love that I get to not be paranoid about my strongest townread.

Why is that bad? When he brought it up?

It looked kinda bad to me that TSO was like "everyone hop on board the ADtrain!" while his teammate was telling him that he thought AD was town. It looked off that he at least wouldn't at least address that inconsistency and instead chose to focus on complaining about how bad his wagon was.

[ChannelDelibird]

TSO wagon is a good thing to be looking at, for sure. I'll take a look at it myself soon.

CDB

, is that how you are supposed to play as town? You just lynch people because it is convenient?

I feel bad about flat-out forgetting to wait for a claim, but I'm not sorry about finally securing a flip. After that many pages, the thread needed one badly. At the very least,

I

needed one badly. I was starting to lose my mind at that point. I'm a strong believer in the theory that excessively long Days are bad for town, something which I think bore out in the way that everything went Yesterday.

Caveats: I wouldn't have hammered when I did if it was on one of my absolute strongest townreads (at that point, it might have been only Titus and possibly the singer slot depending on when that was relative to the evolution of my read there, I forget) and if it hadn't been driven, from what I'd very quickly skimmed, by confirmed town.

[Oversoul]

I feel bad about flat-out forgetting to wait for a claim, but I'm not sorry about finally securing a flip. After that many pages, the thread needed one badly. At the very least, I needed one badly. I was starting to lose my mind at that point. I'm a strong believer in the theory that excessively long Days are bad for town, something which I think bore out in the way that everything went Yesterday.

Fair. I probably would not have opposed a lynch like that on players who were harder to read (like Titus or Mastin). I just felt that TSO was fairly town given his play prior to his own wagon.

What is your opinion about UT forgetting about Fferyllt's confirmed town status? He commented on it, two days pass, and then started scum reading her for not explaining herself.

---

Holy crap, though.

I think I have a townbloc forming in my head.

[ChannelDelibird]

As I said at the time, I thought it was fine. People forget things.

[Oversoul]

But it makes me feel like if he ever flips town, all of the scum would've already been at his wagon considering no one else moved their vote to ensure a lynch.

I dunno. I can see a few different scenarios playing out.

1. Scum want any town lynch that they can get, less people to kill, less people to fool, quicker to the endgame
2. Scum figured they could count on a Espeonage lynch later in the game, so they didn't vote for him
3. Espeonage is scum, scum obviously don't want to lynch their own