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Post Post #6450 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:40 am

Post by Plotinus »

wgeurts wrote:
Plotinus wrote:Oranje tomorrow. We should've done Oranje today. I'm sorry I didn't believe you, Titus.

It's this stuff that makes me very edgy about you.
I already showed why scum just need any town lynch?
Look who suddenely everyone supports?
Yeah, you fit the bill I'm looking for.

I didn't mention or think about narn's redirect, what made you jump to that?
Have you been distancing?

I've already stated it's in scums best interest to worm together, they'll both be persuing a draw so they'll go for any town wagon tommorow.


because I was trying to remember what started my wagon the other day and it was Narninian saying that I must have been lying about being bulletproof because he redirected the delayed Ozgin nightkill onto me on night 2.

Yesterday when I voted Titus I thought that it was either Titus or you but I couldn't understand the case against you and I wasn't sure if I was just upset about you calling us the r word or if there was something real there and Titus had said that if I made reads I was confident in then she'd work together with me and I did -- I spent a whole day reading up on Bulba so that I could make a case against him because he was my biggest scum read, but I came out of it townreading him instead, and I'm still confident that he's town after that, that's my confidentest read, but I'm confident enough about Brantz too since he wasn't even here to do the killing. And I thought that if Titus were town she'd be doing more VCA to help us out, but I was wrong about Titus and I'm sorry about that.

Now I think that maybe the VCA didn't change much by Narninian's flip, which points to Drixx, but Boon cleared Drixx. And so I tried to figure out if Boon could be scum but what is the scum motivation in clearing Drixx? He's a cop, he could've faked a guilty or something. And it seemed like Drixx was town whether or not Boon was town because the scum motivation (buddying) only works if Drixx really is town and the town motivation means he's telling the truth. So Boon was a deadend but he seemed mostly cleared by deathfisaro and other things.

And Bbmolla and Trousers have finally presented a case against Oranje that I can understand and see the logic of and one of those is conftown.

So that's my logic and it's mostly process of elimination but at least it all fits together tidily.
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Post Post #6451 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:43 am

Post by Plotinus »

also, whoever we end up going with tomorrow, and in case it's lylo we should do FoS instead of voting at first, but one thing House taught me in my first game is that if everybody in the thread agrees about a lynch then it means all the scum are agreeing to it. So if all of us are against Oranje then we should reconsider, or if all of you are against me then we should reconsider, or if we are all against somebody else then we should reconsider. we should keep trying until we find someone only almost all of us agree about it.
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Post Post #6452 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:53 am

Post by Bulbasaur Commonwealth »

ChriVi wrote:Also did you guys just wagon flip all of your votes at once within a few hour period so some of us didn't even have any input before the hammer

Jesus fuck me

The fact that plot and Drixx hopped on very quickly after I voted is suspect, I agree.

Now I'm kinda wishing I did start a Plotinus wagon.

ChriVi wrote:Like. This really scares me.

I think it speaks to plot being more likely scum, since he voted literally 20 mins. after I did.

ChriVi wrote:Does this not throw any red flags for anyone else? It looks like a "flip is gonna happen soon, better start not relying on the doctor circlejerk since I know one of them is about to be nuked"

He'd been cautioning against using the doc-circle for awhile now. If this was the first time he brought it up, though, then I'd agree with you.

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Post Post #6453 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 10:05 am

Post by Titus »

I agree with that. Plot suddenly voting me after buddying me indicates scum, but that's also a point against BC.
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Post Post #6454 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 10:51 am

Post by Drixx »

Townies need to spend this twilight and night putting the work in. We are otherwise going to lose badly. There are way too many people all over the place about who the "obvious" choice to lynch is. I tried really hard to avoid being in the mix this late because I feel like my earlier trolling and trying to get myself killed was bad play and anyone could make a case against me out of that. Titus is quite intelligent and will not believe I'm town until she sees the spoiler for the game or sees my flip. The only thing I can do now is appeal to people to be rational and spend the time. There's so few people left that it isn't nearly as much work as it would have been earlier to look through the ISOs. I'm going to try and have thoughts about every single living person ready, presuming I'm alive which seems like a very safe assumption given there are other much more trusted people to kill off at the moment. It would be really cool if all the rest of the townies could do so also. Scum should feel free to show up unprepared and make it easy for us.


I tried to warn against trusting the doc thing as a win condition, and the general feeling was that this was just going to coast into a nice easy win but that's not the case and it was foolish to ever for one second assume it would be. The game creators did say they made a pass to ensure that anything super broken was fixed. There's no way they would leave in an auto win condition. This is strong evidence against the unlimited commuter, by the way.

So it has been a long ass game, and it's nearly over. If you want to win, put in the effort. Scum aren't going to just come right out and tell us who they are to make it easy. Of course ... it's possible they already did and we just didn't notice.
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Post Post #6455 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:02 am

Post by Bulbasaur Commonwealth »

BBmolla wrote:if I die, fucking lynch OC tomorrow.

And I swear to fuck if you lynch Boonskiies I will fucking rip you a new one post game

Actually, walk me through what makes you think boon is that town. Or at least 1-3 points.

Oranje Crush wrote:Shit, tommorows lylo.
If we mislynch once then have 2 kills we loose the game and the two scum factions draw as they have majority of the votes. It's then in their best will to work together and vote one town to draw together.
I'm not scum, lynching me will end in a loss tommorow!
Like fuck, BBmolla may even be scum. I backed up my fucking claim and it matched his miller claim!
Now it's bullshit?

We're not lynching BBmolla though as I really think he's not lying and it's too risky.
Same goes for Drixx, as I believe boon. No, I'm lynching BC tommorow or plot.
Chrivi, consider that I'm town. Lets lynch BC/Plot who we both agree on. Them you can spare a me mislynch later.
Play safe, lynch me later if I'm scum.
We're not fucking loosing this.

The thing is, I can say some of the exact same lines ("I'm not scum, lynching me will end in a loss tomorrow!"; "Chrivi, consider that I'm town. Let's lynch OC/Plot who we both agree on. Then you can spare me a lynch later") and I feel like I have nearly the same amount of influence toward her as you do. Why should they believe you over me (or, conversely, why should they believe me over you)?

Titus wrote:Well we know delayed day vig can bypass doctor. If I had known it, I might have fought harder. *shrug* I just was tired of fighting. Drixx/BC/Plot, scum in there.

But we'd already shown that it can, so this is a failure on your part?

Drixx: The choices are plot or OC, with a side chance of you. I have utility as a way to help ChriVi, as she's stated already, so she's not going to want a wagon on me without some big condemning evidence.
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Post Post #6456 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:08 am

Post by kuribo »

Plant the tree of hate beneath my rotting corpse

There shall you water it with the blood of Plotinus

The rains of fury will turn my darkened spirit into branches and leaves

Stand tall, O tree of woe. For through Plots death, thus may I live through you all


Avenge me swiftly and truly
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Post Post #6457 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:11 am

Post by Drixx »

I think if you go into the critical moment with your mind completely closed, you are an easy dupe for scum. Right now there's like one confirmed townie and everyone else should be suspect. If you don't believe Boonskiies is scum, then you are obligated to view me as town, for example ... but you are obviously not applying yourself very much rationally, or else you would already have worked through that. When it's super obvious that someone is sticking to an outdated set of thoughts, that starts to worry me that they are clinging to a narrative. I expect town to update priors when appropriate.
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Post Post #6458 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:15 am

Post by Bulbasaur Commonwealth »

Honestly, I expect either ourselves or Chrivi to be the targets, and for one of us to be dead come morning. If Chrivi protects us, then the only way either of us die is if the devour kill is a strongman or if there are three scum the two NK scum target Chrivi. But, if there are three scum, this game was already lost for town with today's end results, and I don't believe that we're that fucked. I will not promise there will be no deaths tonight, but I
will
guarantee that Chirvi will live if there is no strongman and they target us.

However, if neither of us are dead, then there needs to be some re-evaluation, especially if Chrivi does target us.

Current living players: BRantz, ourselves, BBmolla, Chrivi, Drixx, plotinus, boonskiies, Oranje Crush

Consider what it means if one or both of Chrivi and I come up dead. Consider what it means if only one of us come up dead as devoured, as I'm 100% sure (pending mod question) that it's a strongman). Consider what it means if either Chrivi or myself die along with anyone else. Consider what it means if neither of us die. I feel like there has to be reason for each of those.

I have class so I may not be able to post again before it's locked. Put your thinking caps on, everybody.

-ivy
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Post Post #6459 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:36 am

Post by Plotinus »

<3 Kuribo. Posts like that have made it a pleasure playing with you. Have fun in the dead thread.

@Drixx I agree. we all need to try our best and work together and keep our minds open.


also it occurs to me that the advice House gave in my newbie game probably doesn't apply unless the scum are on the same team and I don't think they are so nevermind that.
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Post Post #6460 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:21 pm

Post by ChriVi »

Alright, I want reads from everyone. Like, no more 'nulls' at page 260 you guys. I want hard cases tomorrow, start making them now.

And before you get all butthurt about me 'commanding' people: I'm conftown, that means as a town member I am the one person you should be working
WITH
, not against. Regardless of if you like me 'taking control'; Would you prefer conftown had control of tomorrow's lynch or scum?

So yes. Reads please. From all of you.
And TPTG / Titus, any reads or any information of ANY kind before twilight ends would be spectacular. Anything at all.
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Post Post #6461 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:23 pm

Post by ChriVi »

Also, rethinking OC tomorrow because of above points. Maybe Plotinus.

OC, your AtE was total shit and you should try harder. I'd rather lynch BC /after/ you if he is scum so I can play off his reflexive jail shit. The only difference between lynching you two after or before the other is BC's role is actually helpful to me.
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Post Post #6462 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:25 pm

Post by ChriVi »

Oh; On this note, should I die, Plot is who I'd like to see lynched. And OC second.
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Post Post #6463 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:29 pm

Post by Plotinus »

@Chrivi: my reads and my current reasoning behind them is in . I'll do more reading in the night phase to make my reads better but those are my current reads.
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Post Post #6464 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:38 pm

Post by ChriVi »

Plotinus wrote:Now I think that maybe the VCA didn't change much by Narninian's flip, which points to Drixx, but Boon cleared Drixx. And so I tried to figure out if Boon could be scum but what is the scum motivation in clearing Drixx? He's a cop, he could've faked a guilty or something. And it seemed like Drixx was town whether or not Boon was town because the scum motivation (buddying) only works if Drixx really is town and the town motivation means he's telling the truth. So Boon was a deadend but he seemed mostly cleared by deathfisaro and other things.

"Cleared" doesn't mean anything until Boonskiies is dead. Scum motivation would be if they're buddies.
Wanna kill Boon and conftown Drixx or catch scum?
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Post Post #6465 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:48 pm

Post by Plotinus »

@ChriVi: It seemed to me that drixx would be town whether or not boon was scum because either he was trying to buddy a townsperson or he was town himself and telling the truth. I do still find boon suspicious and I liked Drixx' case against him a few days ago and maybe him claiming an innocent on Drixx was an attempt to derail Drixx's case.

I don't know if we have time for killing people just for the purpose of conftowning other people and the mafia would just kill them anyway, so that's a dead end. I'd put boon earlier in the lynch order than most other people, but later than oranje.
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Post Post #6466 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:51 pm

Post by ChriVi »

Plotinus wrote:@ChriVi: It seemed to me that drixx would be town whether or not boon was scum because either he was trying to buddy a townsperson or he was town himself and telling the truth. I do still find boon suspicious and I liked Drixx' case against him a few days ago and maybe him claiming an innocent on Drixx was an attempt to derail Drixx's case.

I don't know if we have time for killing people just for the purpose of conftowning other people and the mafia would just kill them anyway, so that's a dead end. I'd put boon earlier in the lynch order than most other people, but later than oranje.

So you don't think it's possible that Drixx and Boon are on a scumteam together?
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Post Post #6467 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:53 pm

Post by Drixx »

ChriVi wrote:
Plotinus wrote:@ChriVi: It seemed to me that drixx would be town whether or not boon was scum because either he was trying to buddy a townsperson or he was town himself and telling the truth. I do still find boon suspicious and I liked Drixx' case against him a few days ago and maybe him claiming an innocent on Drixx was an attempt to derail Drixx's case.

I don't know if we have time for killing people just for the purpose of conftowning other people and the mafia would just kill them anyway, so that's a dead end. I'd put boon earlier in the lynch order than most other people, but later than oranje.

So you don't think it's possible that Drixx and Boon are on a scumteam together?


You do? o.O
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Post Post #6468 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 12:54 pm

Post by Plotinus »

I don't, because we've had 2:2:2 so far and it was originally games of 13, and we have two kill flavours left, and for them to be scum together and for us to still have two kill flavours it would have to be 4:9 and 3:2:8 the second of which seems mafia sided to me, but I'm not that great at setup spec. Do you think it's likely that there are two people on the same scumteam left?

In case it wasn't clear earlier this is my preferred order: Oranje, Boon, BBmolla, Drixx, BRantz, Bulba, Chrivi
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Post Post #6469 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:09 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Explain to me a realistic scenario where boon is scum go

I'll elaborate when I get home but he's probably town

Also I think plot townslipped
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Post Post #6470 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:27 pm

Post by BBmolla »

So Boon basically claimed the same role as death but finding mafia right?

Boon claimed first, so in my opinion, death's flip confirms him

I don't see a Serial Killer or Mafia member having that role and I don't see how anyone could think it is fake after death's flip.

So please do explain plot
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Post Post #6471 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:47 pm

Post by Drixx »

I already made the case and explained the timing and why his claim timing was questionable and why death's flip doesn't clear him. Just look at my ISO and the posts around... TPTG made a point that made it really feel like it fit spot on.
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Post Post #6472 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:49 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Drixx wrote:I already made the case and explained the timing and why his claim timing was questionable and why death's flip doesn't clear him. Just look at my ISO and the posts around... TPTG made a point that made it really feel like it fit spot on.

link, I'm too lazy
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Post Post #6473 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:50 pm

Post by BBmolla »

So let me get this straight

You think he totally fucking made up "Skeptical Cop" or whatever

And somehow by the chance of fucking fate itself, someone else in the game also randomly had that role

??
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Post Post #6474 (ISO) » Wed Apr 29, 2015 1:51 pm

Post by BBmolla »

kuribo why the fuck did they kill you

im gonna cry tomorrow at the bullshit I'm going to have put up with without you there to tell people to stop being fuckwits
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