White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 3.07

Aneninen (3) - Ankamius, Antihero, Zachrulez
Ankamius (2) - Aneninen, theelkspeaks
BlueBloodedToffee (1) - ika
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) - BlueBloodedToffee

Not Voting (2) - Cogito Ergo Sum, Regfan

With 9 alive, it will take 5 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, May 11, 2015, at 12:00 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-05-11 12:00:00).

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Inb4 CES votes Anen and ika 'lol hammers'.

[Aneninen]

So, here's why CES is town.

Spoiler:

Wgeurts's reasons (and my comments in brackets)

– His early gameplay show mindset where he's trying to solve the game. (I didn't notice this but whatever.)

– He never jumped on the Psyche nor the Elk wagon and those were two easy-to-push wagons. Tammy and Aeronaut have both flipped town, he believes Regfan is town. So, there must be a scum on the Elk wagon, which means BBT or Zach. Both of them if Ank isn't scum. (Note: Ank was parking on the Psyche-wagon. We're conflicted on BBT and Zach, this topic will be elaborated later.)

– Meanwhile, CES had his own thoughts, he was following them instead of "going with the flow". This is something town should do. (Actually I was miming this as scum in some games but yes, Wgeurts may be right. CES could have joined either of the major wagons.)

– He was also pretty justified in his voting of aeronaut. He'd already showed suspicion earlier and his two top solid town reads where on the wagon. If I (Wgeurts) had the same reads as him in this situation I would have joined that wagon as well. it looked like a wagon which is built up off town only which usually leads to a scumlynch. (If I have time I'll double-check this. If Wgeurts's right, the whole cornerstone of my previous FoS on CES turns into nothing.)

– The worst people on the Aeronaut wagon were ika, zach and elk. Elk seems to be a lynchbait thus zach and ika are scum. (He was talking about the lynch-wagon with these names: Regfan, Llamarble, CES, Tammy, Zachrulez, theelkspeaks, ika. I'm not sure whether there were two scums on that wagon. My personal thought: Ankamius joined the Ika-wagon when it was sure that it wouldn't be a real counter to Aeronaut.)

– He started off the next Day by pushing his own scumreads instead of the most likely lynches. Throughout the game he's been doing this. (I noticed the same on Day3.)

– in 993 he was trying to figure out if a scum!psyche had been lying and making stuff up from our team (he meant 993 here. As for this, I've never been thinking about this post in this aspect. But at that point I had read nothing of this game.)

– he didn't freak out at the wagon that grew on him at some point, no survivalism. (Hmmm... that's not a big tell in itself but along with the others...)

My own reasons

– There was an Aneninen#Unexpected_Gamestall situation on Day2. (I pointed it out in my last catch-up.) Whenever I see this I start thinking that neither of the major wagons are on a scum. (Partly because of this I was hesitant to jump on either of those wagons instantly.)
– He was the one of the very few players who were actually talking TO me instead of talking AT me. (I'm still saying: townies are trying to sort out players and interacting with them is a good way to do so. Scummies can throw out "scumreads" without proper reasoning. Especially on players who're already wagoned.)
– His whole interaction with BBT on Day3. His answers to BBT seem to have come from a town mindset.

Why Ika is scum.

Spoiler:

– first of all, I must point out something. In 1435 I told that I would post more about Ika a couple of days later.

Noone

has asked anything about that. How is it possible?

– I won't repeat everything I wrote in my catch-up posts. I only elaborate one thing, his interactions with BBT. It has been going on throughout the whole game, but as posted in (11) of my last catch-up, it suddenly stopped there with no conclusions. I had assumed they're faking (in my 4th catch-up, 1108, (8).) Also, mind the (2) in my last catch-up. BBT was not on the list! According BBT's Day3 I strongly think that the whole Ika/BBT fight is a big fake. None of them have been in a real danger of lynch so far...

– By the way, chatchup 5/(6) is a thing why I doubt Wgeurts's scumread on Zach.

– the most important thing why I wanted to wait with my read is a meta-thing. This game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=61136 finished and Ika was the SK there! I was checking that game every now and then (after all, that was the first case ever when my Setup was played)... and meanwhile I realized that it could be useful for me to sort out Ika. His style was the same there as it is here! (I'd been thinking that he'd been scum there for a while but of course I couldn't be sure before the game ended.) Also, something more about Ika. It's a parallel site activity so I'm not allowed to give any details, but his parallel activity doesn't add up.

– Wgeurts also pointed out that lol-hammering is a thing that scums may do (as for Ika's Day1), although I'm not sure whether I were allowed to tell the reference now. Also, he voted noone apart from the hammer on Day1. He left the CES wagon because it was not moving but joined the CD wagon eagerly. (The in-between vote parking is a thing that we interpret in a different way.)

There will be more reads later.

[Ankamius]

snip

Ank, I have no idea how you have Zach and Ika as nulls.

Zachrulez -> explained already
Ika -> Scumreading GIF and have minor tinglings about the end of day 2, but I trust Mollie's read enough for it to have a bigger effect

[BlueBloodedToffee]

– He never jumped on the Psyche nor the Elk wagon and those were two easy-to-push wagons. Tammy and Aeronaut have both flipped town, he believes Regfan is town. So, there must be a scum on the Elk wagon, which means BBT or Zach. Both of them if Ank isn't scum.

Or it was an all-town wagon on scum. Your whole point here revolves around elk being town. Why is elk town?

– Meanwhile, CES had his own thoughts, he was following them instead of "going with the flow". This is something town should do. (Actually I was miming this as scum in some games but yes, Wgeurts may be right. CES could have joined either of the major wagons.)

No, he didn't. A few people had expressed doubt over CD because of the token issue. CES was very much 'going with the flow' of the game and joined the biggest wagon at the nearest opportunity.

– He was also pretty justified in his voting of aeronaut. He'd already showed suspicion earlier and his two top solid town reads where on the wagon. If I (Wgeurts) had the same reads as him in this situation I would have joined that wagon as well. it looked like a wagon which is built up off town only which usually leads to a scumlynch. (If I have time I'll double-check this. If Wgeurts's right, the whole cornerstone of my previous FoS on CES turns into nothing.)

No, he hadn't. There was very little suspicion of Aeronaut before his vote - I have already very clearly pointed this out (CES has also said himself that the read progression happened outside of the thread so I'm not sure where this is coming from). I already addressed the issue of him sheeping his top two town reads as well.

– The worst people on the Aeronaut wagon were ika, zach and elk. Elk seems to be a lynchbait thus zach and ika are scum. (He was talking about the lynch-wagon with these names: Regfan, Llamarble, CES, Tammy, Zachrulez, theelkspeaks, ika. I'm not sure whether there were two scums on that wagon. My personal thought: Ankamius joined the Ika-wagon when it was sure that it wouldn't be a real counter to Aeronaut.)

The worst on the Aero wagon is CES/ika. Elk is lynchbait? That's your reasoning for Zach and ika being scum? Nah, I don't buy that at all.

– He started off the next Day by pushing his own scumreads instead of the most likely lynches. Throughout the game he's been doing this. (I noticed the same on Day3.)

You mean pushing the same scum read as what he pushed for most of D1? Apparently, static scum reads are a scum tell. What makes you think CD wasn't a likely lynch D2? Who would have been more likely?

– he didn't freak out at the wagon that grew on him at some point, no survivalism. (Hmmm... that's not a big tell in itself but along with the others...)

This is weak. Someone as experienced as CES does not freak out over a couple of votes.

@Ank - I saw your explanation for Zach read but I don't understand it.

Can you elaborate on your Zach scum read prior to the things that moved him towards null?

[Ankamius]

I can't really elaborate much more on Zach than I have since most of it is the gutread on how he engaged me on day 2. Tammy and Regfan's posts were made to try to figure out what I was saying and decide what my alignment was based on that, while Zachrulez felt more like he was trying to stifle and push me into a corner without trying to figure me out.

[Zachrulez]

I can't really elaborate much more on Zach than I have since most of it is the gutread on how he engaged me on day 2. Tammy and Regfan's posts were made to try to figure out what I was saying and decide what my alignment was based on that, while Zachrulez felt more like he was trying to stifle and push me into a corner without trying to figure me out.

If I said Tammy is

really good

at reading me, would that influence your gut read?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

What's your read on CES, Zach?

[Ankamius]

You're in the resort list Zach.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

ces why are you not voting?

Because I don't want to lynch anyone right now. It feels like we're at a stage where the suspect pool is sufficiently pared down and scum have strong incentives for certain plays that I should be able to make sense of this game. It'd also definitely be nice if we got more than two posts out of elk.

[Zachrulez]

What's your read on CES, Zach?

Still think town.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Why?

[theelkspeaks]

Aneninen also makes a lot of sense as partner to either elk or BBT.

Ank, so you no longer think the Cheery Dog was scum-driven?

Regfan, I gave you a thought-out response and everything and you just disappeared on me. Don't make me doubt your town read on you, please.

Elk, what prompted you to look at the mod iso?

Mostly on a whim, I thought it might be useful to see the progression of votes over time, and it turned out some interesting thoughts.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Elk, no response to 1504?

Also, are you willing to vote CES toDay? If not, why not?

[theelkspeaks]

Elk, no response to 1504?

Also, are you willing to vote CES toDay? If not, why not?

Didn't see a reason to reply to 1504. You're telling everyone else why you think I'm playing antitown, so it's up to me to try to follow up on my reads more, but just saying "yeah but I'm town" is pretty unproductive for everyone.

I'm willing to vote CES today potentially, I'd say he's probably 2nd in my scumpile right now, or maybe 3rd, but he's not my preferred wagon.

[ika]

It's a parallel site activity so I'm not allowed to give any details, but his parallel activity doesn't add up.

This i want to hear.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mostly on a whim, I thought it might be useful to see the progression of votes over time, and it turned out some interesting thoughts.

When? During the Night?

What do you think of Ank unvoting me near the end of Yesterday? What do you think of the Cheery Doglynch?

[ika]

does anyone else have this nagging feeling that regfan is scum right now whos doing jack shit cus nobody suspect him atm?

[Aneninen]

– Meanwhile, CES had his own thoughts, he was following them instead of "going with the flow". This is something town should do. (Actually I was miming this as scum in some games but yes, Wgeurts may be right. CES could have joined either of the major wagons.)

No, he didn't. A few people had expressed doubt over CD because of the token issue. CES was very much 'going with the flow' of the game and joined the biggest wagon at the nearest opportunity.

Day1. First name on the CD wagon. Joining the Aeronaut wagon after expressing his reads. Second name on the CD wagon, then on the Ankamius wagon. First name on the CD wagon next. (He could have jumped on Ika, or Psyche/me while he was wagoned, by the way.) Expressing his unwillingness to vote on Day3 in 1534. Where's that "going with the flow" again?

By the way, if I'm correct, CD spent a token for scum and flipped town. Is this piece of information worth anything useful now?

– The worst people on the Aeronaut wagon were ika, zach and elk. Elk seems to be a lynchbait thus zach and ika are scum. (He was talking about the lynch-wagon with these names: Regfan, Llamarble, CES, Tammy, Zachrulez, theelkspeaks, ika. I'm not sure whether there were two scums on that wagon. My personal thought: Ankamius joined the Ika-wagon when it was sure that it wouldn't be a real counter to Aeronaut.)

The worst on the Aero wagon is CES/ika. Elk is lynchbait? That's your reasoning for Zach and ika being scum? Nah, I don't buy that at all.

The Elk is a lynchbait was said by Wgeurts. I'd really like to see more posts from Elk, though.
I've already posted a lot about my Ika-scumread. Why are you concerned about my Ika-scumread anyway?

– He started off the next Day by pushing his own scumreads instead of the most likely lynches. Throughout the game he's been doing this. (I noticed the same on Day3.)

You mean pushing the same scum read as what he pushed for most of D1? Apparently, static scum reads are a scum tell. What makes you think CD wasn't a likely lynch D2? Who would have been more likely?

Before VC2.18 CD never had more than 2 votes. He'd been on that wagon since VC2.12 – again, he could have jumped on the Psyche wagon to make it a counter.

– he didn't freak out at the wagon that grew on him at some point, no survivalism. (Hmmm... that's not a big tell in itself but along with the others...)

This is weak. Someone as experienced as CES does not freak out over a couple of votes.

Appeal_to_Authority
Being experienced is not a proof for not being survivalist.

It's a parallel site activity so I'm not allowed to give any details, but his parallel activity doesn't add up.

This i want to hear.

We both know that we're not allowed to talk about ongoing games.
But okay, here's a fictional example. (Although a highly "overdone" example.)
I'm alive in GameA, GameB and GameC. At a certain point of time I post a wall in GameA, post nothing in GameB and post that I'm from mobile and in the middle of a party so I'll answer everything later in GameC. The post in GameC comes at 23:23 and the post at GameA comes at 23:42. Would you think that these things add up?

Can you tell me why have your posts here been different from your posts were in Matrix-14?

does anyone else have this nagging feeling that regfan is scum right now whos doing jack shit cus nobody suspect him atm?

Checked. No parallel activity from him at all. Therefore, his absence is a null-tell.

[ika]

Can you tell me why have your posts here been different from your posts were in Matrix-14?

well the most blatant and obvious one would be that im VT here and not an sk? and that this setup does not have a place for sk?

like if your really going to compare sk!ika to vt!ika then you have a lot to learn.

sk vs scum team are 2 very different things and i take both very differently. likewise sk vs town have 2 very different atmospheres.

so to be blunt: trying to use an SK game of mine to apply it to a game where sk can not exist in attempts to meta me is very stupid and weak.

like if you really want to knwo my self meta all you have to do is ask. i openly state what it is (based off what people put as my "meta")

[ika]

anenin, whats your personal read on me?

not the wgerts one or shit like that

[ika]

i have this odd vibe that one scum is on wagon

one scum is not voting

one scum is just off wagon entirely

VOTE: regfan

i want to lynch this cus i dont trust the 2 competing wagons given how the others haev been

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Checked. No parallel activity from him at all. Therefore, his absence is a null-tell.

If he was posting elsewhere, I would lynch him posthaste. Regfan did once just stop posting while hydraing with me as scum and I can see him being less motivated than normal as scum in this situation.

By the way, if I'm correct, CD spent a token for scum and flipped town. Is this piece of information worth anything useful now?

If you spend a single token, there's about a 60% chance that it does nothing. Unless we think 4+ people spent scum tokens on this game, that is what happened.

Appeal_to_Authority
Being experienced is not a proof for not being survivalist.

1) That's not actually an appeal to authority since my experience is relevant and 2) he's obviously making a valid point.

[ika]

so far my lynch pool is currently compiled of CES/regfan

i would do BBT for lolz but anyone else atm i have no intrest in

[Aneninen]

well the most blatant and obvious one would be that im VT here and not an sk? and that this setup does not have a place for sk?
like if your really going to compare sk!ika to vt!ika then you have a lot to learn.
sk vs scum team are 2 very different things and i take both very differently. likewise sk vs town have 2 very different atmospheres.
so to be blunt: trying to use an SK game of mine to apply it to a game where sk can not exist in attempts to meta me is very stupid and weak.
like if you really want to knwo my self meta all you have to do is ask. i openly state what it is (based off what people put as my "meta")

That's not the point. I know that SK =/= Mafia, although there are similarities, since neither of them wins with the town.

The point is that I put my read on you on hold because I realized that Matrix 14 would end soon. Of course I didn't read the game

thoroughly

and there was a resonable chance that I'm misreading you and MonkeyMan is a trolling SK. Had you flipped town there, that would have changed a lot here. (Similar Ika-posts as town ---> probability of Ika is town and I'm misreading you. However, similar Ika-posts as SK ---> doesn't contradict my scumread on you.)

anenin, whats your personal read on me?

I explained my scumread in my catchups, but okay, I'll recapitulate the most important things.
1077 (5) – random questioning out of early gamephase, in the middle of another conversation. (Eg. in Matrix 14 you posted such things much earlier.)
1077 (12) – posting that you want to perform a slayer's gambit is pigeon poop. (But okay, what have you achieve or what did you want to achieve by that?)
1128 (6) – that conversation is the cornerstone. You posted that BBT had been claiming scum and avoided to answer Zach's questions about it. You were urging a BBT-lynch but without voting for him. Also, what's with your hammers? Hammered twice in Matrix 14...
1128 (7) and basicly everywhere. – your constant fight with BBT, which has lead nowhere but changed shape around 878. (I'm not sure that BBT's push is genuine and you're scum or both of you are scums and faking, but the fact that noone pushed the other one

too

hard suggests me the latter one.)
Also, the fact that you appeared on the CES-wagon (...while fighting with BBT all the time), moved to BBT in 2.13 (at that time there were no other votes there), and ended up on the CD-wagon. (2.25)

i have this odd vibe that one scum is on wagon
one scum is not voting
one scum is just off wagon entirely
VOTE: regfan
i want to lynch this cus i dont trust the 2 competing wagons given how the others haev been

Okay, according to your reads, Regfan is the "not voting" one. Who's the on-wagon and the off-wagon scum?