White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[ika]

I want to see CES rebuttle and hear out wisdom first.

I will porb decide with ank in the next 48 hrs or so

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What is there to rebut? He's just gone through my iso and pushed everything he could possibly push without any real thought behind it. He just regurgitates the Aerostuff but points out every post that's relevant to it; I think at least a quarter of his points are just that I was town-reading Regfan and yeah, like most of us, I let Psyche get away with lurking.

Anyone can make this sort of post about anyone. It's pure scum tactics.

All you have to do, ika, is look at BBT's mindset. Look at how much effort he just put into the game at the exact point where if you and I had been scum together, he had lost the game. Look at how he's interacted with Regfan Today. Look at 2065.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Day Three.

1377 - Says Anen, elk and Ank look bad for allowing deadline to pass by. Who does he go after? Anen? Nope. It's Ank. He starts his weird attack on Ank's unvote that he later backs out of and claims he never actually thought it was scummy of Ank to do it.

1443/1446 - This is really weak reasoning from CES for why Anen is scum. It feels like it's coming from a buddy who perceives Anen's posts to be scummier than what they actually are because he knows the true motivation behind them.

1466 - He tries to tie me in with Anen, this is a very early attempt at doing so. Also, after all this discussion with Anen, you have to ask; why isn't CES voting him when he so clearly scum reads him?

1519 - Trying to further tie myself in with Anen, as well as elk now. This is becoming important because according to CES ‘Anen was a very obvious lynch’. Therefore, CES is setting things up to push after his buddy is ‘inevitably lynched’. Coincidentally, I feel it is much more likely for scum to think their buddies lynches are inevitable because they can see if what town are saying is true or false and this directly correlates to the impending lynch.

He also makes a very strange comment to Reg in this post along the lines of ‘Don’t make me doubt my town read on you’. What? If you think he is starting to look scummy, don’t you think that’s something you should start looking into?

1547 - Makes another point for why Reg could be scum. Has no direct questions/interactions for Reg to engage with though.

1572 - This post, and a few before it, show very clearly that CES is scum reading Anen now. Where is his vote? Why is he not voting Anen? At this point, ika and Anen are the two leading wagons. Given we now know that ika is town, there is no way CES could join that wagon given his position in the game. He also cannot bus his buddy; he is paralyzed to doing nothing with his vote.

1580 - More Reg could be scum - again, no interactions/questions for Reg to deal with, just light suspicion.

1634 - This post is awful. CES states 'if he didn't have other scum reads, he would be voting Anen.' This is absolutely comical, this is very weak reasoning to attempt to justify why he isn't on the Anen wagon when he so clearly scum reads him. It's weak. He also says that he wants Reg to 'restore his town read of him' so they can 'hash things out'. I don't even need to explain why that is bad.

1638 - Thinks Reg/myself are scum with elk and Anen. Insists on lynching elk/Anen first because that wins the game either way. States again that he doesn’t think scum will bus unless they absolutely have to. I’m not getting the feeling from CES’ posts that this Anen lynch was as inevitable as he tried to make out after the fact. I just don’t see that thought process in his posts at all.

Further, after just stating this he then goes and says he thinks Anen might be town because there is no support for an ika lynch so scum are happy for Anen to get lynched. So, he wanted to lynch Reg/myself, elk and Anen. He rules out myself/Reg because he wins the game if we lynch elk/Anen and then he rules out Anen above. That just leaves elk. FOS buddy, vote/push town. His Reg scum read also seems entirely based on an elk scum flip (which he knows isn’t happening) and allows him to go back to town reading Reg straight away.

1640/1650 - Reg is back and CES is talking to him like nothing happened. No questions for him and no posts that indicate CES is trying to work out Reg's alignment. It appears as if (and CES states as much) that Reg has simply slipped back into his town reads via 'posting'.

1712 - Yep, he is convinced Reg is town, despite very little interaction or attempt at working out his alignment. His previous suspicion of Reg feels fake and contrived, it disappears far too quickly for it to hold any weight at all.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

As far as "decide what the scum team is, then look for anything to justify it" posts go, I think I preferred Titus' ika-me VCA post.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Keep trying to discredit.

It's so fucking clear now. So clear.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're the one discrediting yourself. I've only ever made posts like that as scum.

I mean, I've talked explicitly about my Regfan-read Today, about how I townread his posts but get worried by his absences; I've talked previously about how I like to scumhunt with him. You could've commented on that, talked about the game. But instead you point out every time I interact with him and pretend my interactions don't make sense.

Your Anen-me stuff is basically contradictory - you claim I overrated how suspicious I thought Anen looked and how likely that lynch was but also take my non-voting as purely scum-motivated. The truth is much simpler - I correctly estimated how likely the lynch and therefore didn't feel particularly pressured to vote for him when I was still trying to figure out the whole scum team.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The essence is that you don't want to talk about the big picture because my big picture makes sense and yours doesn't.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I don't need to convince you you're scum. You already know that.

I need Ank and ika to see it.

[Ankamius]

Both of you: Strongest three points against the other indicating scum. Go.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Ank, did you read my posts?

I didn't just create them for the good of my health.

You can see my thoughts and can extract the three biggest reasons from my posts.

I feel like everything I write gets ignored. I presented cases on CES and ika and received no feedback at all. I then write a pretty detailed case on why CES is scum and again, nothing.

This is getting insanely frustrating.

[Ankamius]

I ask because I'm at work and there's no guarantee I'll have the energy to go through and crosscheck once I get home because fuck evening shifts with a rusty fork.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

OK.

Well, I'm going to wait and hope that you can put the effort in that this game deserves.

We have plenty of time.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Both of you: Strongest three points against the other indicating scum. Go.

#1 is that the way he's acted Today, specifically w.r.t. ika, just fundamentally hasn't matched his reads. I won't go over that whole spiel again as I've said a few times now.

#2, which strikes me again after his last few posts, is that he will substitute :effort: for just talking to people at times (it's a bit more complicated than that, but I'll take this phrasing for now). Like just now, instead of trying to distill his walls into something more digestible, he seems more inclined to bludgeon you over the head with how much effort he's put into them instead. When Regfan posted paragraphs about why he was leaning towards BBT, all BBT did was call them scummy and call on Regfan to post a case. 1857-1860, where he just throws up a wall of quotes rather than answer my question, and 1874-1877, where his response essentially just consists of "write more or I don't have to address you" like with Regfan, are two more examples.

#3 is that his tunnel on me lacked both substance (in that he not only tunneled on me for 2 Days based on the Aerothing but had his other reads shaped by it too) and conviction (he certainly wasn't very active at the end of D2 when I was one of the two lynch suspects and didn't engage either elk or Anen even though they were voting ika and Anen had expressed suspicion of me).

(I could add a joke here about post 2065 being scummy enough to be reason #4 on its own, but his claiming credit for the Aneninenlynch and the behaviour surrounding that is unquestionably scummier).

[Equinox]

Vote Count 5.08

BlueBloodedToffee (2) - Cogito Ergo Sum, Regfan
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) - BlueBloodedToffee

Not Voting (2) - Ankamius, ika

With 5 alive, it will take 3 to lynch.

The deadline is Friday, May 29, 2015, at 3:30 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-05-29 15:30:00).

[Ankamius]

Hey ika, are you around?

[Ankamius]

My team is fully synced now. All three of us think that lynching Regfan is the best choice for winning the game.

We're both completely cleared from being scum outside unless BBT is scum, so those are the only true losing conditions.
CES+BBT is confirmed not to be a team because keeping this 1v1 up for so long is a complete and utter deathtrap.

What are the teams that are left?

BBT+ika
BBT+Ank
BBT+Reg
CES+Reg

It should be pretty clear at this point from anyone who's paying any attention that neither of us are scum with BBT either, so what teams are we left with?

Scumteams including Regfan.

Thoughts?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

On what basis are you arguing that it can't be you-BBT?

I get that you would argue for Regfan and I obviously agree that Regfan is a better lynch than me but lynching BBT is a guaranteed victory and, especially with the way he's been posting Today, I don't think there is any reason to overthink BBTscum.

[Ankamius]

Because if I'm scum with BBT, it's far simpler to try to manipulate ika into voting you rather than going in a completely different direction.

[Ankamius]

Actually, alternatively, ika suggested I just vote regfan earlier when I brought it up. That would've been a fairly painfree path to a win.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'll be limited to using the iPad starting tonight, so I think I will talk scum teams now in case Ank tries to seduce ika with it.

If you compare BBT-Ank to me-Regfan, I think the obvious things to point out are:
1) BBT-Ank has BBT in it!
2) All the nightkills make sense coming from BBT-Ank while killing Zach over Antihero would've been a completely unnecessary risk for me-Regfan.
3) The D4-lynch. Ank's reads at the time suggested a BBTvote and yet he voted elk, which was instrumental in keeping BBT alive. When I woke up to elk at L-1, I strongly considered both options of hammering elk and still trying to get BBT lynched. I ended up picking wrong in part because of fear that Ank-elk were trying to pull one over on me. If I were scum, I get just going for the hammer if I think I'm well-positioned for LyLo, but it makes no sense for me to do it if I'm partners with Regfan - elk was clearly death tunneling on ika whereas BBT was both more vocal and scum reading me.

[Ankamius]

Anyone who understands my scumgame would be able to tell you that this isn't it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Because if I'm scum with BBT, it's far simpler to try to manipulate ika into voting you rather than going in a completely different direction.

Actually, alternatively, ika suggested I just vote regfan earlier when I brought it up. That would've been a fairly painfree path to a win.

These two seem contradictory? Either you think it's best as scum to go with the BBT-me showdown or you think it's best to try and get lynched Regfan instead. They can't both be better.

This whole situation is a little weird since I think it could be BBT-Regfan but then this whole argument is irrelevant, so I'm left focussing on BBT-you anyway. I think a BBT-you team thinks a Regfan-mislynch is easier but BBT definitely can't push it and I can definitely see you not wanting to go straight for it, given that you've been reasonably standoffish the last few Days.

[Ankamius]

The first one is general strategy that's superior to the vote-Regfan strategy. It's not contradictory at all because even if I wanted to push Regfan for a win as scum, going for it when ika pushed me to would be a better time to do it than right now.

[Ankamius]

To address standoffishness: Why would I go about being indecisive when those two specific plans were laid out before me and both would've had a decent shot at success?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's not contradictory at all because even if I wanted to push Regfan for a win as scum, going for it when ika pushed me to would be a better time to do it than right now.

You weren't actually around then anyway?

To address standoffishness: Why would I go about being indecisive when those two specific plans were laid out before me and both would've had a decent shot at success?

I don't see how that relates to standoffishness. Given how you've played this game so far, I could definitely see not wanting to go in for a strong push on Regfan but just take your time getting there.

Actually, most of this seems irrelevant - going for Regfan before he had voted BBT would've also meant BBT would've still pretended to think it was me-ika and he would've had to react convincingly. Now BBT can switch his focus to Regfan easily.