We Didn't Playtest This | Game over, everyone loses

Plotinus · Post Post #6950 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2015 6:22 am

Welcome home BBmolla!

I don't really like BC's scramble onto Jackel's wagon in 1785, 1786, 1787 but I get that it was about a day before the deadline and Jackel had been pretty lackluster. It's just that most of the townies who hopped on the wagon had some kind of reason that they stated and vonflare was like oh wagon yay *hop*. anyway deadline scrambles are always bad. It is sad that Narninian was the voice of reason about this in 1795, considering he was scum. So far everyone that's voted Jackel except Oranje has been town (or unflipped).

Man, you know how when you get to the sad part in the movie and you start hoping that the movie will end differently this time even though you knew how it was going to end because you've watched it a hundred times before? And then you're sad anyway? That's how I feel about this votecount in 1833. The wagons against vyse and vonflare have compeltely fallen apart (as I knew they would because I knew Jackel was lynched that day) and we have 8 scum and there's only 1 known scum on each of these new wagons against town.

Spoiler: look how sad this is

I read past 80 because I can tell the day is almost over. Here's the votecount on Brantz and it's highest point (between vote count 1.15 and 1.16)

Spoiler: wowee

All four scum teams are voting him and the orange team has two votes on him! wow. And he was V/LA when this wagon appeared and came back from his V/LA the day of the deadline. Vyse was the main person pushing Brantz and everyone else was scrambling on because it was the end of the Day.

Gosh they almost lynched peregrine instead of jackel. 8-9 votes piled on him starting with Marquis. And the resistance to Peregrine's wagon came from Magua. sigh. and Bulbasaur Collective (both voting jackel). And then copper voting Drixx. This is like watching a movie "noooo don't go into the basement guys nooooo the basement is bad this is a horror movie where is your genre savviness" but they go into the basement anyway. that's what this resistance to peregrine's wagon is like (at 12 hours from the deadline or something like that)

like, the argument here is "don't shoot a lurker (Peregrine), shoot the other lurker (jackel)". I mean it's true that Jackel had claimed tracker and peregrine hadn't claimed anything but the entire case against Jackel was his inactivity. + outguessing the mod (expecting all the flavour names to be weird).

I know Jackel is going to die here but the suspense is killing me. everyone's going into the basement because they heard a bump down there. this metaphor is getting away from me.

Spoiler: they went into the basement

That was 71-90 and a little bit of 91. Sorry if I'd known it was going to be 20 and not like 11 or 15 I would have broken this up into two parts.

Plotinus · Post Post #6951 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2015 7:13 am

Vonflare's whining in 2474 about only one kill instead of two kills looks like his faction's kill shows up in the morning. I mean it's hard to tell with scumposting because deliberate misinformation but he seems confused. But if Volcano isn't nuke from orbit then Molla's innocent.

Molla, deadline is in 3 days, 5 hours. I don't know if you're in any other games at the moment (and I know you can't talk about it if you are) but please try to give this one some love some time in the next 3 days.

That was 91-100. Not a lot happened (Oranje scumposted a lot in twilight. Narninian admitted to redirecting to Marquis. NK analysis happened and people started voting Lucian.)

BBmolla · Post Post #6952 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2015 7:14 am

↑ Plotinus wrote:Molla, deadline is in 3 days, 5 hours. I don't know if you're in any other games at the moment (and I know you can't talk about it if you are) but please try to give this one some love some time in the next 3 days.

Once I get off the plane I should be well rested and ready to read.

Your analysis is incredibly helpful though

Plotinus · Post Post #6953 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2015 10:25 am

oh sorry, misread "going home" as "got home". Have a nice flight!

I am glad it's helping you. It's helping me too. Before I joined I asked nikanor how much I was expected to read because it was 209 pages and I was just out of my first newbie game and I was pretty daunted and he said that nobody expects you to read much when it's that long they're just happy you're filling the slot, and it was the right thing to say because it got me to replace in but it wasn't the right advice for getting unlost after I replaced in. But reading like this probably wouldn't have helped that much then: when I first replaced in, I didn't think vonflare was town because he was "too scummy to be scum", I thought he was town because I had no idea what scummy looked like or what I was even supposed to be looking for. That's the remedial level I was at. I'm getting better though!

I'd primarily done ISOs before + clicking some posts to see the surrounding 2-3 pages it was responding to and doing it that way it's easy to miss long silences (the post numbers don't really register for me all that much in an ISO) or it's easy to miss "some big game event is happening and this slot isn't talking about it", or just the whole broader context for everything. I'm getting a lot out of this readthrough.

About Bulba's push on copper in 2518. He accuses copper of blaming Jackel's lynch on Jackel. I read it more literally: Jackel, the poor newbie, didn't realise how he should have claimed. that's unfortunate. Then, in 2525, Ivy says Jackel wasn't a newbie he was an idiot which is what Bulba accused copper of doing.

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:2 scum1/2 scum2/2 werewolf/1 possible SK doesn't seem that implausible for a 26p?

seems prescient. All we had at the time was the Marquis kill and Drixx saying something about werewolves and Action Dan saying something about more than one mafia and thinking this meant there had to be an SK. Ok maybe that was enough to put it together but the numbers were pretty close to the current most likely theory of 2:2:3:1

In 2556, Bulbasaur says "I have Oranje as a possible SK, due not only to their claim, which doesn't add up, but also that their early play didn't feel right. " They were reading Om and Narninian as town in that post, and Vyse as town in a recent post before that. They were scumreading vonflare, were suspicious of Mollie I think? ("Mollie I want to interact with, because Capcom paranoia.") and didn't mention peregrine.

...Oranje claiming that one night kill didn't happen because he commuted is pretty hilarious in retrospect. (2596, 2597)

2665 "Copper has pushed on US for most/all of the game." makes it sound like copper was in a BC tunnel and I don't think that was true yet (though this is going to start a big spat between BC and copper that goes on for a long time and by the end of it, it will be true.) Copper had been pushing BC on and off, since RVS, it's true, but copper had been scumhunting a lot of other slots as well.

2705 good case against oranje by Bulba. we should have lynched oranje instead of lihin (yay hindsight).

This was 101-110.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #6954 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2015 7:08 pm

↑ BBmolla wrote:Your analysis is incredibly helpful though

^
Like, I'm pretty sure I can win the game from it by following a plan I have, which I'd share with my buddies but I'm pretty sure I'm on my own, as pathetic as that is. (I

should

be a lategame player, but I'm so divorced from the game that I'm relying a lot on things I'm seeing from players when I KNOW that one of you has an agenda. In particular, for instance, right now the Plot analysis is incredibly helpful but it's not impossible for it to all be BS and Plot to be scum. It seems to be telling me something, though. I'd need to check to see where Plotinus stands in the analysis, but I can say that obviously, he's not the player I think we should lynch today at the very least from it.)

Not quite sure how to get my thoughts better out there. I'm mostly keeping this stuff in my head.

Plotinus · Post Post #6955 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 3:44 am

If by your buddies, you mean Bulba and Ivysaur, Ivy should be back in a day or two, so she'll see it then. If by buddies you mean something else, then yes you're probably on your own, Venus.

I am about 2/5ths of the way through my analysis. I think I need about 5-6 more real life days to finish, maybe a little more. I feel like I've got the entire first 39% of the game in my head at once, in a good way. It won't be finished in time for the hammer toDay but if today's hammer isn't on scum then I will continue it in twilight and in the nightphase and will finish it long before the deadline toMorrow if we don't win today.

I'm leaning town on BBmolla at the moment but I'd rather hammer him (closer to the deadline) than do no lynch. If something clear emerges from my analysis early and most of the town agrees about it we could lynch that instead but it would have to be something clear enough to make potentially bringing a miller into LYLO worth it.

I agree that effort isn't indicative of alignment if that's what Venus is saying, but I think that if I were scum then I would wind up painting myself into a corner at some point. I'll worry about that in some future game when I'm trying to emulate my play from this game. (Dear people from the future who are meta-ing me: don't worry, I am town in that future game too.)

Anyway, back to Day 2.

In 2802, Bulba prefers Lucian not to shoot Pika (preferring Pika lynch) because wants to save Lucian's shot for the day we activate BBmolla's ability so that we get 3 effective lynches that day, but then Ozgin would have lost his bulletproof so it didn't happen. The main reason I'm mentioning 2802 is he said he thought one of the setups might have been a twist on Jungle_Republic. Do you still think that?

I like 2859 from Brantz. I think this is more evidence that

Brantz is not Volcano

.

Drixx joins the Lihin wagon fairly early 2951. Brantz liked Oranje's Lihin case in 2955 and then used his second pseudocider shot (at the request of others). BBmolla voted Oranje in 2957.

I think I've found the start (2985) of the Drixx/Titus disagreement. There were 25 votes in play before the pika shot and then Pika died and Brantz left and then there were 23 votes in play, and Drixx forgot that Brantz had left and assumed Pika had been a double voter and thought maybe the other killing member of a mafia team would get a vote too. He realised the mistake in the very next post, but I think he forgot to update his suspicions that the double voter was mafia at the same time. I've done something similar before by mistake. (misread a post, scumread someone, had it pointed out to me that I had misread it and then had trouble figuring out if they were still scum or not).

Meh, after Lihin's claim I probably would have been on that wagon too. but oranje was a better wagon! I shake the fist of hindsight at the Lihin wagon!

That was 111 to 120.

Plotinus · Post Post #6956 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 6:46 am

BBmolla continues to be the voice of reason about the Lihin wagon in 3018.

Thought of another explanation for vonflare's confusion about the lack of a second kill: maybe he forgot that his team's kill was delayed. i think I like the "confused over narninian's kill redirect" idea better though.

I like Ivy's 3247 trying to derail this TvT argument.

That was 121 to 130. Mostly Titus vs Drixx + the Lihin wagon trying to happen.

BBmolla · Post Post #6957 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 8:44 am

↑ Plotinus wrote:I'm leaning town on BBmolla at the moment but I'd rather hammer him (closer to the deadline) than do no lynch. If something clear emerges from my analysis early and most of the town agrees about it we could lynch that instead but it would have to be something clear enough to make potentially bringing a miller into LYLO worth it.

If you're town Plot, I think lynching me today results in your lynch tomorrow and a BC victory.

This is why I haven't just self hammered

And I think you're town over BC atm Plot.

Plotinus · Post Post #6958 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 9:55 am

3275 BC asks Trousers for reads on

vonflare

,

OC

, BC,

copper

, and

om

. Trousers and BBmolla were happy to lynch from this pool. It's a good pool, at least 60% scum. Much better than the Lihin wagon.

3349 BC is probably the only one who has a reason to be upset at Lihin because Lihin targeted them with the reduced prod time thing, when Ivy's computer was broken and it was a weekend and 2 heads were usually V/LA on weekends.

3373 is bothering me a bit. "This is multiball, which means multiple scum teams who are hunting each other. I don't think it's too out of the ordinary to work with a scum read to lynch a mutual scum read in these circumstances." but my head's fuzzy right now. going to stop staring at the screen for a little while after I post this. I think I can see what they're saying because if too many scumreads and too little working together then not enough people for wagons and deadline scramble. but town outnumbers scum. but Oranje was SK so working together with SK should make BC less likely to be scum. but Lihin. but BC had good reason for Lihin. unlikely Broseidon who made up the Lihin wagon as a distraction from wgeurt's scumclaiming in twilight 1.

I kind of want to get sidetracked and look at copper/BC combined ISO to make sense of their argument because it's too interspersed with too much other stuff, but I'm almost halfway done this thing and I can only hold so many things in my head at once and if I get distracted I'll start loosing some of the threads but if anyone else is bored they could do that. maybe add vyse in for added context.

131-140. Halfway done. whee.

pedit: The offer of a game breaking strategy reminds me of several other game breaking strategies we've heard this game. If I'm lynched tomorrow, town loses. If mastin's scum, she can't afford to reconsider her read on me because it wrecks her LYLO plans. If she's town, interacting helps refine reads. If BC and I are both town then scum can't win with both of us alive and scum can't kill us except by mislynching the two of us and there isn't time to mislynch both of us if you're lynched today and I do think you're town.

They were levelheaded prety much all game except when deathfisaro said the words investigation immune. I still can't see the difference between reflexive jailkeep and investigation immune. I think I saw somewhere mastin said she'd use ascetic as a fakeclaim. There's something off about the copper push. They reacted kind of strangely to me townreading them.

No she actually was an ascetic but she was mafia: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... c#p6684346 Just something about her reasoning there pinged me about this game:

Spoiler: quote

Reflexive jailkeeper is macho miller. It's the day before lylo and we have 2 millers. and one of them didn't claim until the 4000s when there was a cop "no result"/investigation immune on them.

+ why would Ivy have told mastin that Berlin was left. we were all perfectly happy assuming it was volcano and it was you at the time Ivy left.

Drixx, Brantz when you get back, do you guys see it too?

molla do you think I should keep reading day 2 or should chase down this copper/bc thing.

Plotinus · Post Post #6959 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 12:34 pm

↑ Cuttlefish wrote:
Vote Count 2.09

Lihin (13)
- Cerberus v666[/color],
Om of the Nom
,
Boonskiies, deathfisaro
,
Oranje Crush
, Bulbasaur Commonwealth,
Narninian
, Drixx,
LucianRoy, ChriVi
,
VysePresident
,
Ozgin, Toon Fighter

Oranje Crush
(2)
- BBmolla,
Three-Pronged Trouser God

Drixx (2)
-
Titus

VysePresident
(2)
-
PeregrineV
,
copper223

Cerberus v666 (1)
- Magua

Not Voting (3)
: ActionDan,
vonflare
,
Lihin

With 23 votes in play, it takes 13 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-04-02 10:05:14).[/color]

----------

Lihin
-
Town Double Day Foreman
- Lynched day two.

Magua
-
Town Forgetful Watcher
- Nuked from orbit day two.

BC's been on every major wagon. There's an achievement for that on the wiki but I don't know if it's a town tell or a scum tell or something else. I was on every major wagon as town in my first couple games; unfortunately every wagon was against town.

I've read 140-149 but it's past midnight and I kept not generating thoughts about what I was reading. I think I'm too tired to read critically right now so I'm going to reread this bit in the morning. it's important: the end of the lihin lynch and then lots of discussion in twilight and then the reactions to vyse's death the next morning.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #6960 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 1:00 pm

In [url=/forum/viewtopic.php?p=6909702#p6909702]post 6958[/url], Plotinus wrote:If BC and I are both town then scum can't win with both of us alive and scum can't kill us except by mislynching the two of us and there isn't time to mislynch both of us if you're lynched today and I do think you're town.

Dammit, Plot, that was the strategy Ivy mentioned.

Butyeah. This. There's one assumption. One. If you are town, we win, period. That's one of my main points of reference.

Right now one of the things that worries me is that you're basically saying, "Everyone is town" from your analysis.

But on the other hand, that's what

you're

saying. What I'm getting paints a slightly different picture, with Molla as the most likely and one of Drixx/BRantz (best not to say which) behind that. I was kinda hoping that one of them could get nightkilled for extra breathing room, but since you've posted this, I'm incredibly doubtful about that. (And me posting this makes it impossible.)

I think I saw somewhere mastin said she'd use ascetic as a fakeclaim.

Pretty sure the only thing relevant to ascetics from me is that I had a scumgame where I REALclaimed ascetic.

My rule of thumb as scum is to always claim the role I really have unless I have darn good reason not to. (Then again, I basically haven't been involved in the game at all, so it wasn't me who made our claim.

That said

, I generally give input about things in my scum hydras. I just read some of my play in Anything Goes, for instance, and while that game was 75% Kats, it was 25% me and my 25% was a HUGE part in our win.)

+ why would Ivy have told mastin that Berlin was left. we were all perfectly happy assuming it was volcano and it was you at the time Ivy left.

I can double-check to make sure, but you're the Berlin-immune BP, right? With Drixx the WW-immune claim? (My buddies have pointed to the claims many, many times but I frankly never bothered even once to look at them.) Ivy mentioned the above as the gamebreaking strategy, which is what I meant by assuming Berlin was left.

Basically, Ivy said that you + me = unwinnable for scum if you're town, because of your BP. He might have mentioned your faction, and I remembered it being Berlin-BP, but if you're Volcano-BP, that's what he meant.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #6961 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 1:08 pm

Just checked the PT. I can't name the post number there obviously and even if I did it'd mean nothing, but yes Ivy did specify you were Berlin-BP, carrying the implication that the game would be won. No killing you, no killing us, if you're town, means game won, period thanks to two invincible town. It was the last thing he said before announcing he was leaving for Italy.

He did post once after that on the hydra telling me not to lynch Drixx and not BRantz unless that's who it came down to, carrying the obvious scuMolla implication, though he didn't state if the game didn't end who of Drixx/BRantz he'd prefer. (Language is too ambiguous for me to tell. I'd give you the exact wording for you to analyze and see if you'd be able to guess a preference, but, y'know, modkill risk and all that.) Like I said, I sort-of have an idea, but I'll need to think it over. Molla's still my preferred option. But if it's not him, then I think I can figure out more.

...Also, I just realized there's another thing we can do tomorrow. It's incredibly awesome. Let me tell you when we get there, though.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #6962 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 1:10 pm

(So, yes. He rather clearly thought it was Berlin left.)

Drixx · Post Post #6963 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 1:51 pm

Umm... I'm as confirmed as town can be short of the moderator literally saying "Drixx is town guys". I crumbed and then claimed my WW bulletproof before anyone had any idea there were werewolves. The werewolves tried to get me lynched. The werewolf kill flavor has long since vanished, so the paranoia angle of me being a werewolf and faking werewolf immune makes zero sense. Further, I tried to remove myself from the endgame equation because I didn't play well enough to deserve to keep playing earlier when Titus and I were spatting. It was genuine and anyone paying attention should have had a strong town read then. After that I put together a scum case against Boonskiies because he was a lurksack and the information we had and the timing of things, including his claim, made a really nicely fitting case for him being scum.

Boonskiies then investigated me, thinking that perhaps I was scum trying to get rid of him since he was actually a cop and not scum as I believed at the time. He cleared me. Then I still pushed for him to be lynched anyway because it seemed to me that the obvious thing to do with someone like me with a case I was tunneling was to give an investigative result that was true. Boonskiies turned out to be honest and thus my case was wrong, but I got confirmed as not being mafia.

The only remaining paranoia element regarding me would be if there is investigation immunity at play or if you posited me as a werewolf. No matter who shows up alive tomorrow, only a townie with an intellect making Forrest Gump appear to be Einstein in comparison would vote for me. That's not even hyperbole.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #6964 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 2:05 pm

Right.
Cop innocent.

I am a moron.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #6965 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 7:41 pm

Hey, I'm back!

↑ Plotinus wrote:i’m not sure who is left. if volcano is left, then we have a volcano miller left, who oranje implicated in twilight last night but who has otherwise been acting very protown

Making a scum member a miller to his own team is bad design at best. Which is why I think if BB is scum he's Berlin scum.

↑ Plotinus wrote:berlin could be left, which makes more sense with nuke from orbit i think, but berlin and werewolves seem to be from the same game (just based on role names in post 1) and it’s likely 2:2:3:1.

So Berlin's the 3?

↑ BBmolla wrote:Ivy thinks I'm a Berlin volcano miller?

LOL

It does sound a tad ridiculous, I agree, but if you're WW you aren't THAT bad at your shots.

↑ Plotinus wrote:so this was a lot harder but it seemed like Narninian and Pirate Ika preferred not to interact with each other unless they had to. They were both mildly negative towards BRantz but otherwise mostly left him alone. Narninian spent what seems like half his posts talking about his votepark on BBmolla which I think is null about BBmolla’s alignment but is interesting in retrospect how little scumhunting he did and how much talking about his votepark he did.

Him voteparking on BB looked to me more like a safe way to keep his vote out of VCA and to look pro-town at the same time. I don't think it has anything alignment indicative.

↑ BBmolla wrote:I haven't had time to do shit, birthday and all.

Sorry.

I'll try to look a bit before I leave for Florida but we'll see

Happy Belated Birthday, to whomever it goes to!

↑ Plotinus wrote:Re: Om's initial case about Drixx on page 23, it was scum making the case so that makes the case suspect but I also would like to have seen more early scumhunting from Drixx. There were quite a few other players who had not yet engaged in scumhunting, though (off the top of my head: Narninian had mostly been talking about BBmolla's ability, vonflare had just been trolling, boon in retrospect appears to have been scumhunting but i don't think that would have been obvious to me at the time, chrivi, toon fighter, dani, jackel, ozgin-who-had-real-life-stuff-going-on, peregrine (om's scumbuddy) had done fuck all, reubus swagrid, never melt ice and bbmolla talked mostly about their abilities and didn't do much scumhunting out loud in the thread, my own slot, Bulbasaur Commonwealth was almost inactive for the first 20+ pages, so it's weird to single out Drixx when a lot of other people had been coasting/lurking/setup speccing to the exclusion of scumhunting/etc.)

I think Om probably chose Drixx because Drixx already had 4 votes on him and that made him an easier target.

Yknow, that may be true, but it's an interesting coincidence that the person Om drives hard to lynch is the one person his team can't kill. I'm pretty sure Drixx claimed after the case, but I can't help but wonder how much of that was just Drixx getting the short straw and how much was Om trying to remove one team-specific barrier to winning.

↑ Plotinus wrote:Liking BC's catchup posts but I don't understand the distinction between going with the flow and going with the flow, but they were right that vonflare was going with the flow in a bad way. Also it's interesting that they include themselves in the '15 or so people actively posting' when they hadn't been.

Vonflare was essentially coasting on the flow of the game, expecting that to carry him through to wherever the hell it went, and not really bothering to read or understand where the flow was going or came from. Everyone else who as active at the time (and I counted the hydra because I was trying to be in there, but eh) were either dictating the flow themselves or were assessing the way the flow was going so that they were basing it off of a sound-ish judgement instead of an "okay, whatever, man" kind of style.

Does that answer your question?

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #6966 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 7:41 pm

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:but I BELIEVE that Ivy thinks that--short of you being scum--we've got an autowin here so I'm mainly working from that.

Yes, based on the fact that if Plot is town there's two people that neither mafia team (if we're going to be throwing out the idea that Volcano is still alive for some reason) can kill--me because I will just auto-JK them and render the kill useless, and Plot because he's BP to them.

IF, for some reason, WW is still around, then it's not autowin (well, it will be for Drixx/me, but not Plot/me). If Plot is not town, it's not an autowin.

↑ Drixx wrote:Happy Scumday BBmolla.

Yeah, what he said.

↑ Plotinus wrote:That was 71-90 and a little bit of 91. Sorry if I'd known it was going to be 20 and not like 11 or 15 I would have broken this up into two parts.

The funniest part of this whole post was the analogy to bad horror films. Although in hindsight I do kinda see what you mean between Pere and Jackel.

↑ Plotinus wrote:About Bulba's push on copper in 2518. He accuses copper of blaming Jackel's lynch on Jackel. I read it more literally: Jackel, the poor newbie, didn't realise how he should have claimed. that's unfortunate. Then, in 2525, Ivy says Jackel wasn't a newbie he was an idiot which is what Bulba accused copper of doing.

My point was (or should be) that while we on the wagon share blame for lynching him (obviously), Jackel is still an idiot for intentionally or unintentionally withholding everything about his role. Especially for the way he tried to tease that there was more to it than just being a plain tracker. Copper, if I'm recalling correctly, was saying the entire lynch was jackel's fault, which is incorrect.

↑ Plotinus wrote:They were levelheaded prety much all game except when deathfisaro said the words investigation immune. I still can't see the difference between reflexive jailkeep and investigation immune.

It's more the way death phrased it than anything else. I'm not and was not averse to the conclusion he came to by itself (it's not unreasonable given the way our role works), but rather that he seemingly went to II first over other things that seemed more plausible.

↑ Plotinus wrote:Reflexive jailkeeper is macho miller. It's the day before lylo and we have 2 millers. and one of them didn't claim until the 4000s when there was a cop "no result"/investigation immune on them.

+ why would Ivy have told mastin that Berlin was left. we were all perfectly happy assuming it was volcano and it was you at the time Ivy left.

Drixx, Brantz when you get back, do you guys see it too?

molla do you think I should keep reading day 2 or should chase down this copper/bc thing.

I'm not sure what the point of the first paragraph is.

I told her Berlin was left because I don't really believe Volcano is the last team. Although, Volcano nuking from orbit isn't too outlandish now that I think on it here. It means Molla isn't scum if true, though...

Although, if I've been thinking that everyone thought it was Berlin all this time and in reality only I thought it was Berlin left, I'm gonna feel so stupid.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #6967 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 8:02 pm

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:But on the other hand, that's what you're saying. What I'm getting paints a slightly different picture, with Molla as the most likely and one of Drixx/BRantz (best not to say which) behind that. I was kinda hoping that one of them could get nightkilled for extra breathing room, but since you've posted this, I'm incredibly doubtful about that. (And me posting this makes it impossible.)

If we lynch BB, Plot is town and immune to Berlin and/or Volcano (I'd also like to mention that I've been saying Berlin in particular because of said belief that Berlin was the last team left. IIRC Dan said he was immune to mafia in general without specifying a team, so I don't think my wordage matters), then Drixx/BRantz will have to be killed anyways. And then we'll know it's BRantz because of the aforementioned cop clear.

Honestly, I think the only thing that matters to me is that Plot is town. If I know that fact to be as true as it can be, then this game is over.

(Also, I don't want to lynch Drixx at all. He and BRantz will just be the two left if BB's gone and Plot's town).

-Ivy

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #6968 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 8:04 pm

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:Making a scum member a miller to his own team is bad design at best. Which is why I think if BB is scum he's Berlin scum

Although,

claiming

to be a miller to his own team isn't a bad thing to do. Kind of a stroke of brilliance, really.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #6969 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 8:05 pm

It does sort of hinge on your teammates carrying the game, what with the implications of being a miller and all.

Plotinus · Post Post #6970 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 9:05 pm

Just woke up, welcome home! will reply to everything but I wanted to say I'm immune to volcano and berlin. My role PM says i'm immune to mafia. that's what the whole misunderstanding between action dan and drixx was about because he was suspicious of drixx only being immune to werewolves (which he thought was one of the two mafia groups at the time, people were postulating Lycan Mafia or something. Like he was thinking "mafia group 1, mafia group 2, sk" was the setup and he was immune to "mafia 1, mafia 2" and drixx was only immune to "mafia 1" but all that setup spec was wrong, and that's why they misunderstood each other.

If BBmolla is guilty then he isn't really a miller, he's a tropical volcano mafia modified bookie. If he is innocent then he's a town modified bookie tropical volcano miller.

I'm sorry that I mentioned the bulletproof + jailkeep thing but it seemed really obvious. If BC is town then it works. I had the thought myself before mastina said anything. But we had a doc circle in this game: nuked from orbit. Then we had a chrivi targets BC to be kept safe circle thing: nuked from orbit. Either two people targetted BC that night and 1 more targetted ChriVi which would have taken a lot of co-ordination between mafia teams and I don't think we had enough different teams¹ (including Oranje as a one man team here) for that to work, or one person targeted BC and BC targeted Chrivi. Now we have Plot and BC are unnightkillable so if we lynch everyone else town wins. Great if it's true. I want it to be true. But I wanted the doc circle to be true. And then ChriVi and BC thing.

[1] It was day 8 that ChriVi was nuked from orbit. We only had 2 scum left at the time. Since the kill on ChriVi was submitted, only Oranje and Boon died. Boon had targetted Oranje the previous night. None of the rest of us have night actions.

I'm also not quite saying that everyone is town in my analysis. I'm saying everyone had a weak day 1 game and that there's a lot that I liked from every slot in particular and no one was obvscum by day 3 (where I'm up to in reading). I'm paying a little more attention to BC and Brantz because I do think the last scum is one of those, but I'm paying attention to BBmolla too and some attention to Drixx but conftown, and then I'm seeing how everyone fit in with the flow of posts from all the other slots whose alignment I know.

Plotinus · Post Post #6971 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 9:59 pm

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:Right now one of the things that worries me is that you're basically saying, "Everyone is town" from your analysis.

I'm not going to conclude "everyone is town". I'm pointing out everything noticeable because I don't want to come to a conclusion before I've finished reading because thatway lies confirmation bias. Whatever conclusion I come to will be well supported. It won't be wishywashy. I'll be sure. I'm not sure yet because I'm only halfway done.

But on the other hand, that's what
you're
saying. What I'm getting paints a slightly different picture, with Molla as the most likely and one of Drixx/BRantz (best not to say which) behind that. I was kinda hoping that one of them could get nightkilled for extra breathing room, but since you've posted this, I'm incredibly doubtful about that. (And me posting this makes it impossible.)

Ok. So nuke from orbit didn't happen until the lynch on day 2. It's presumed to be a delayed nightkill. There wasn't a nuke from orbit on the day deathfisaro was modkilled so maybe it's a "can't be submitted on day 1 daykill" instead but I think delayed nightkill that only goes through on lynch makes more sense. There also wasn't a nuke from orbit when Oranje was lynched, and the mod confirmed that if Oranje was nuked and lynched it would just show up as lynched, not nuked and lynched. So the assumption I am operating based on is that whichever one of us is doomed to be nuked from orbit along with today's lynch has already been selected. I'm further operating under the assumption that the remaining mafia member doesn't want to bring conftown Drixx into LYLO because Drixx is the least likely to be mislynched. Me posting that isn't going to change anything if the kill has already been submitted.

That's why I'm mainly concerned with figuring out Brantz/BC because that's the choice I was expecting to be faced with tomorrow if it's not BBmolla.

I think I saw somewhere mastin said she'd use ascetic as a fakeclaim.
Pretty sure the only thing relevant to ascetics from me is that I had a scumgame where I REALclaimed ascetic.

My rule of thumb as scum is to always claim the role I really have unless I have darn good reason not to. (Then again, I basically haven't been involved in the game at all, so it wasn't me who made our claim.
That said
, I generally give input about things in my scum hydras. I just read some of my play in Anything Goes, for instance, and while that game was 75% Kats, it was 25% me and my 25% was a HUGE part in our win.)

If you're scum in this game, you're a reflexive roleblocker that you upgraded to reflexive jailkeeper. If you're innocent then you're a reflexive jailkeeper. I figured you weren't here because you were burned out on mafia in general, not burned out on one particular alignment. That is, I'm assuming your absence in this game is not alignment indicative. And that I can see scum you making the argument of "but I love being scum, why would I flake if I were scum" and the answer is I don't think you flaked on purpose.

+ why would Ivy have told mastin that Berlin was left. we were all perfectly happy assuming it was volcano and it was you at the time Ivy left.
I can double-check to make sure, but you're the Berlin-immune BP, right? With Drixx the WW-immune claim? (My buddies have pointed to the claims many, many times but I frankly never bothered even once to look at them.) Ivy mentioned the above as the gamebreaking strategy, which is what I meant by assuming Berlin was left.

Basically, Ivy said that you + me = unwinnable for scum if you're town, because of your BP. He might have mentioned your faction, and I remembered it being Berlin-BP, but if you're Volcano-BP, that's what he meant.

i'm mafia-BP: immune to berlin and volcano, vulnerable to werewolf and SK.

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:
↑ Plotinus wrote:Liking BC's catchup posts but I don't understand the distinction between going with the flow and going with the flow, but they were right that vonflare was going with the flow in a bad way. Also it's interesting that they include themselves in the '15 or so people actively posting' when they hadn't been.

Vonflare was essentially coasting on the flow of the game, expecting that to carry him through to wherever the hell it went, and not really bothering to read or understand where the flow was going or came from. Everyone else who as active at the time (and I counted the hydra because I was trying to be in there, but eh) were either dictating the flow themselves or were assessing the way the flow was going so that they were basing it off of a sound-ish judgement instead of an "okay, whatever, man" kind of style.

Does that answer your question?

yes, thanks. I was having trouble attaching meaning to intonation before.

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:[Narninian] voteparking on BB looked to me more like a safe way to keep his vote out of VCA and to look pro-town at the same time. I don't think it has anything alignment indicative.

Yeah, that votecount says a lot about Narninian's alignment and nothing about BB's.

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:

↑ Plotinus wrote:Reflexive jailkeeper is macho miller. It's the day before lylo and we have 2 millers. and one of them didn't claim until the 4000s when there was a cop "no result"/investigation immune on them.

+ why would Ivy have told mastin that Berlin was left. we were all perfectly happy assuming it was volcano and it was you at the time Ivy left.

Drixx, Brantz when you get back, do you guys see it too?

molla do you think I should keep reading day 2 or should chase down this copper/bc thing.

I'm not sure what the point of the first paragraph is.

The point was that BB is basically a policy lynch right now. It's entirely based on his miller status (because he

could

have been tropical volcano mafia

lying

about being a miller) and some junk that Oranje spewed in twilight that

could

be true or could be false and we have no way of knowing and can't afford not to test it because LYLO is coming up. but look how BBmolla responded to that. It was a 100% protown response. I guess it had to be but I'm really feeling townBBmolla right now.

But we do have one other slot that also couldn't be cop confirmed as innocent: Bulbasaur Commonwealth. That's like being a miller in the sense that if a cop investigates you then you look suspicious. BBmolla claimed miller in his first post. You guys didn't. I kind of get why you guys didn't, because you said the reflexive jailkeep only works if only one person targets you and if two+ people target you then something else happens and even in a rolemadness game if 2+ people are targetting you it's more likely that one of those targets is going to be a kill, and if innocent you didn't want to draw attention from what turned out to be 4 different scum flavours at once.

So the point was we shouldn't policy lynch BBmolla because we don't have time to policy lynch both of you. We should lynch whoever we think is guilty.

Plotinus · Post Post #6972 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 10:05 pm

↑ Plotinus wrote:
Yeah, that vote
count
park
says a lot about Narninian's alignment and nothing about BB's.

ebwop

Plotinus · Post Post #6973 (ISO) » Sat May 30, 2015 10:21 pm

Day 1: no nuke because nightkill
Day 2:

19.

Soren

Magua

-

Town Forgetful Watcher

- Nuked from orbit day two.

Day 3:

5.

Ozgin

House

-

Town Private Investigator

- Nuked from orbit day three.

Day 4:

18.

LucianRoy

-

Town One-Shot Vengilante

- Nuked from orbit day four.

Day 5: nobody. maybe they were testing my bulletproof, maybe they shot peregrine (lynched that day), maybe they were testing BC's jailkeep or Oranje's commute
Day 6: nobody. deathfisaro modkill. if the modkill didn't prevent it maybe they shot him or were testing BC/me (not oranje, who was devouring people)
Day 7:

7.

Three-Pronged Trouser God

-

Town Mason Herbalist

- Nuked from orbit day seven.

Day 8:

9.

ChriVi

-

Town Neighbor Doctor

- Nuked from orbit day eight.

Day 9: nobody (either Oranje or no kill or testing BC/me but you'd think they'd have finished that by then.

All of these look like low information kills. every one of them is killing a conftown except for Magua. Magua was townreading vonflare but voting vysepresident. wasn't reading BC's walls or Oranje's spam. was townreading Narninian too.

Plotinus · Post Post #6974 (ISO) » Sun May 31, 2015 12:33 am

guys, I've been pretty hyperfocused these last few days and that's waning and the feeling of "I can hold 280 pages of data in my head at once for sure" is fading and this is 100% due to physical offline stuff related to this annoying body I'm associated with but I'm going to keep going with this and even if I can't hold all of it my head at once right now it will all be written down and then it'll just be these last few pages of the game to hold in the head at once. I still think the thinking of the last few days was quality thinking.

anyway, back to page 140.

Incidentally, in the newbie game I've been congratulating myself over, the IC had done a gambit early in the game and the newbies were confused and the SE scum slot led a lynch all liars campaign against the IC. A large part of my case against him was that he'd been here long enough to know that Lynch all liars is for people who fake a cop guilty on someone not people who reaction test or gambit or honeypot and then retract and explain what they were doing once scum fall into the trap. He was getting away with it because none of the newbies understood what was going on, so he was coasting on the newbies' confusion and their natural suspicion of the IC. But Drixx is conftown and the rest of town here aren't newbies who have never seen a gambit before so I think Drixx's use of Lynch all Liars here was just misguided.

Also, generally speaking, why was everyone in this town doing preflip associatives? I saw lots of people who flipped town do it, and some of the people who flipped scum did it too, and some of the people who are still alive were doing it too. A large part of Titus' case on Drixx was that Drixx was trying to derail his buddy Lihin's wagon. Bulbasaur was speculating on a Drixx/Lucian/Vyse team before they started townreading Vyse. And there was remarkably little

post

flip associatives being done. I think I remember Magua and copper were doing it a little trying to figure out who pirate ika might have been scum with after the flip but most people just dropped this line of thought.

↑ Cuttlefish wrote:
Vote Count 10.03

BBmolla (2)
- BRantz, Drixx

Not Voting (3)
: Plotinus, Bulbasaur Commonwealth, BBmolla

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline falls in (expired on 2015-06-01 21:10:00)

Molla please make a case if you're town

. Point to the thing you were thinking of in Bulbasaur's ISO. you don't have to do a blow by blow of every post in their ISO just use ctrl-f to find what is that you were thinking of. Yes, I'm leaning town on you. but you promised us a case and we're running out of time to turn the wagon around on you if that is indeed what should happen.

I want to lynch scum today. Failing that, I want a lynch to happen because no lynch is dumb. if we no lynch today then tomorrow we have 4 alive (assuming nuke from orbit happens with a no lynch which it might not since it didn't happen with a modkill but is that something we want to test?), and that makes tomorrow a no lynch day too and it lets the nuke from orbit faction choose who is coming into LYLO instead of letting town make part of the decision by lynching. If you don't produce a case then I'm hammering you in about 30 hours, 8 hours before deadline.

if the BC is town then yeah we can autowin because BP + JK. If BC is town then you trying to reach out to me yesterday was trying to salvage your win as scum. It's either you or BC. but why reach out to me in particular when I don't have the clout that other players have so I think you're genuine.

Ok, I'm jumping ahead:

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:Honestly, I expect either ourselves or Chrivi to be the targets, and for one of us to be dead come morning. If Chrivi protects us, then the only way either of us die is if the devour kill is a strongman or if there are three scum the two NK scum target Chrivi. But, if there are three scum, this game was already lost for town with today's end results, and I don't believe that we're that fucked. I will not promise there will be no deaths tonight, but I
will
guarantee that Chirvi will live if there is no strongman and they target us.

However, if neither of us are dead, then there needs to be some re-evaluation, especially if Chrivi does target us.

Current living players: BRantz, ourselves, BBmolla, Chrivi, Drixx, plotinus, boonskiies, Oranje Crush

Consider what it means if one or both of Chrivi and I come up dead. Consider what it means if only one of us come up dead as devoured, as I'm 100% sure (pending mod question) that it's a strongman). Consider what it means if either Chrivi or myself die along with anyone else. Consider what it means if neither of us die. I feel like there has to be reason for each of those.

I have class so I may not be able to post again before it's locked. Put your thinking caps on, everybody.

-ivy

People with no night actions: brantz, BC, BBmolla, Drixx, Plotinus
People with night actions: boon (targeted Oranje), Oranje (nobody was devoured, maybe targeted BC), ChriVi (targeted BC)

so one of [brantz, bc, bbmolla] targeted and killed ChriVi. BC wasn't devoured even though they're claiming that two people targetted them that night. They have never said what happens if two people target them just "not reflexive jailkeep but something else".

Current living players: Brantz, BBmolla, Drixx, Me, BC
People with night actions: whoever is the last scum

So given that the "if targetted by 2 people, then not reflexive jailkeep but something else" cannot happen anymore, is it safe for BC to share what it was that happens in that situation and why they survived anyway? I have a guess but I don't want to feed it to them if this is a botched claim. If BC still doesn't feel like sharing then I don't get why because I'm asking about a mechanic that can't happen anymore but I'll drop it if people want me to. I just think it might be important.

Also, Ivy:

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:
↑ BBmolla wrote:let me get this straight
you're claiming Vyse fucking killed and janitored himself
Fun fact:
I know I didn't
say
this anywhere, but I concluded this ages ago, that Vyse accidentally killed/janned himself.

I didn't make this public, and didn't even share it with my partners, so they regrettably can't verify that I had this thought in my head prior to now. But I had it all the same, and was actually working under the assumption that it was true.

So...yes, I buy OC's claim.

Can you explain how you reached this conclusion? What in game stuff was pointing in this direction? How does a person accidentally type

kill myself

in the mafia PT or however? vonflare said something about a moderror in his twilight trolling but he said a lot of things in twilight trolling.

ugh this wall is too long.