We Didn't Playtest This | Game over, everyone loses

Plotinus · Post Post #7150 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:37 am

Deathfisaro

claims a guilty on

elusive

in 5559.

Spoiler: elusive lynch

night 4 was skipped and day 5 started immediately.

5638 was the reference to hilariously unbalanced mafia an agreement or disagreement? it’s probably not important i’m just curious. This post also has a readslist in it. Oranje and Brantz are listed as town for their roles. I can see where Ivy was coming from about most of the names mentioned (including mine). The suggestions for who

elusive

should vig aren’t bad, 50% of those were scum.

5687 by

Oranje

seems off to me. I will quote it because it is short.

↑ Oranje Crush wrote:So I can't figure out what the purpose of Brantz's role would be as a town role. It kind of... doesn't do anything for town.

VOTE: p5 I have no idea what scum slip wgeurts thinks exists but I'm pretty confident about p5 being scum here.

He’s saying something pretty negative about Brantz, that his role has no utility as town. You’d expect that to be followed by a vote on Brantz. But it wasn’t. He votes

peregrine

instead. [color=color=#0075ff]Peregrine’s[/color] lynch was a good lynch but saying “x is probably scum. vote: y” is a scum tell I’ve noticed. But I’m more interested in what, if anything, this says about Brantz. People had been talking somewhat negatively about Brantz, so was he setting things up so that in the future after Brantz flipped, he could get credit for it? This only works if the

Leopard Society

had more than one member of course. Or he was just lining up his next lynch for after he finished driving peregrine’s wagon? I will keep this in mind to see if he pushed Brantz at all after this (especially on day 6). If it were

wgeurts

, I’d lean towards setting things up so he could crow about it (the way he crowed about every flip even ones he didn’t have much to do with) but this was

Bro

who is less innately scummy than

wgeurts

.

getting tired again. something about 5702. maybe nothing. will look again when awake.

I don’t know why Titus quoted this particular vote count by itself but I’m requoting it now that we can colour almost all of it in:

Spoiler: on second thought i think the purpose of this was ruling the masons out as potential scumbuddies for tropical volcano

Spoiler: peregrine dies

223-232. a lot happened.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #7151 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:46 am

Shit. Now I'm in the situation I didn't want to be in.

I almost wish we had just lynched Brantz anyways.

Bulb, I don't give a shit if you're behind, Plot's done enough of a job with catchup. Get in here!

-Ivy

Plotinus · Post Post #7152 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2015 12:03 pm

Do you know anything about VCA, Ivy? I still don’t know very much but I’ve only got 50 pages left, I don’t mind colouring the votecounts in for us to try to make sense of together. I saw that Titus had promised some VCA lessons in her “how to understand Titus as any alignment” post that I was hoping to sheep general ideas from but she hasn’t posted it yet, and maybe it would have been a questionable grey area, so i may have to wait for a future game to sheep it. but I do have more luck when I sheep people who aren’t in my current game (though it’s funny when they replace in and i have to suddenly stop sheeping them. this happened to me in Elemental Mafia, I was sheeping BBT and then BBT replaced in.)

I also hope Bulb shows up. Are you allowed to ping him by PM or something? the more heads the better. if you’re not town, more chances to slip. if you are town, more chances to figure things out. I am leaning town on you again if you couldn’t tell.

Plotinus · Post Post #7153 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2015 12:43 pm

In 5820,

kuribo

says that the masonry protected

Ozgin

night 2 and each other the other nights and therefore they can’t protect against nuke from orbit. This is in the middle of an unimportant 1v1 with

Titus

but the point is that he was claiming some of the missing kills were probably attacks on the masonry, so that’s a thing to keep in mind when looking at missing kills.

in 5978

Oranje

asks everyone who voted peregrine to say why. I do in the next post. Twilight 5 ended before BC and Brantz had a chance to. I don’t knoww if there’s anything to gain from doing it now when

peregrine

flipped scum, but

oranje

was scum and a lot of people were scumreading him and then people kept piling onto whatever wagon

Oranje

was driving.

That was 233-240. It is now day 6. Most of these pages were a 1v1 between

Titus and Trousers.

i am going to bed.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #7154 (ISO) » Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:51 pm

Yeah, we definitely need to ping Bulb about this.

I'll share my own input limited as it may be in our PT. It should be all three of us making the call, not just the two or even one of us. (Hey, if we get it wrong, all three of us get the blame ANYWAY.

)

-V.

Plotinus · Post Post #7155 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:37 am

About 5702 now that I’m awake, the part that was pinging me was the “playing chicken with the nuke from orbit people.” meh, i can see town or scum saying that. call it null.

6008, by Brantz and some of the surrounding posts by

Narninian

. Brantz says “Last night is very illuminating” about the new kill (devour) or about

Trousers

being confirmed (but they were pretty likely town even before then, meh) but doesn’t elaborate. It feels like talking about the night stuff for the sake of talking about it, to blend in or something.

Also on page 241,

deathfisaro

makes a case for

Oranje

being the devourer. Then in 6023, Mastin shows up.

In 6026, Mastin says

deathfisaro

looks scummy but could be town,

drixx

is probably scum, I’m apparently definitely scum but she doesn’t want to pursue me, because

titus

is scum. On the one hand I am in good company on that list. but I remember at the time it was really confusing in a “what? why?” kind of way. By looking at the posts that Mastin was up to around then, I’m guessing it was the post where I wanted to know if jailkeeper worked like a real life jailkeeper where you get to choose who gets let in or not. Maybe Mastin thought I was being stupid on purpose or role fishing (5691)

6035 is

Titus’

VCA. She’s right about

Narninian

,

Oranje

, and

BBmolla

. About my own slot, she said that I had spent a lot of time voting claimed cops but

Boon

didn’t claim until day 3, after Dan had disappeared, and Dan voted him before the claim. Her other complaint was that my slot was voting Brantz who could remove himself but again, Dan voted Brantz before Brantz’ claimed and never again after the first pseudocide, so in both cases it seems null as everyone’s vote on

Toon Fighter

before the mason claim was. Anyway, her analysis was largely focused on finding the remaining orange team member because we had two flips for that and 60% of her lynch list was scum.

6040

Narninian

posts a reads list. It was probably mostly made up out of thin air because he was scum but he probably wanted his reads to sound plausible. I read that scum usually put their buddies in the null section or the scumlean section because if you put all your buddies really close to the conftown section people get suspicious. He was completely null on Bulbasaur Commonwealth which was odd. Nothing stands out? After all their posts? Is

Narninian

one of those “I don’t read walls so ~unfortunately~ I can’t get a read on any of the wall posters” people? And this is coming right after the

deathfisaro

thing. Bulbasaur Commonwealth had been active participants in the thread for a while by now so being null on them is kind of weird. Brantz was in the scumlean section, with no explanation given. I’m completely left off the list which is strange because he’s about to fake a guilty on me. And he votes

Drixx

. So basically all of us are in places I’d expect to find a scumbuddy on a readslist. bah.

Titus

complains that he didn’t mention me so he puts me in the scumleans section in 6044. His preferred lynch order was

Drixx

,

Oranje

, me, Brantz.

6045 Bulbasaur Collective’s lynch order:

Titus

/Plotinus/

Narninian

/

Drixx

in about that order.

6050 My preferred order was Bulba/

drixx

/

oranje

/brantz, but it should be known that I had Bulbasaur Commonwealth confused with

cerberus

(who had already flipped; I’d forgotten who’d reaction tested me), and that I’d misread all instances of BB on titus’ VCA as saying BC (6086, 6099).

6058

Oranje’s

lynch order: "

Death

, Plot,

Drixx

, and

Narn

are the ones I most want to see dead. BC and Brantz are in the middle (town right now, first slots I'm re-looking at if I'm wrong about my scumreads).”

6059 Brantz has BC in the town section,

Narn

and

BBMolla

in the unsure section, and me and

Oranje

in the scum section.

6090

Boon

says that he targeted BC the previous night, and

Narninian

also says that he redirected to BC that night (6068).

Narninian

could have been lying or I dunno how the two powers would interact at all (would that count as 2 or 3 people targetting them?). Ivy responds to this (and other things) in 6094. Were you townreading

Narninian

, then? Or you thought that meant nobody targetted the masonry? Why are you voting me there while calling out an inconsistency with Narninian and Boon? (I also still don’t really see why my posts up to that point were scummy but ok. I can see it for some of my later posts but I was just being dumb.)

6102 finally, after posting his reads list where he forgot about me until Titus reminded him and voting drixx and not having me very high in the preferred lynch order until he saw which way was the wind blowing,

Narninian

starts revving up to fake a guilty on me. My posts on that page are pretty terrible but it was 3am and I shouldn’t have been posting.

And then deathfisaro was modkilled and everyone did twilight snuggles.

6153 and Brantz’ main reaction to the modkill is to talk about the nuke from orbit kill being missing!

Here’s what my wagon looked like right before the modkill:

Spoiler: there were two scum on my wagon

That was 241-251 (end of twilight 6).

Plotinus · Post Post #7156 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:53 am

I’ve reached my wall about BC in 6263. I asked a question about their

Oranje

read which I don’t think was answered.

They have consistently scumread
Oranje
since fairly early day1 (thought not at the very beginning of the day), though they were civil towards
Oranje
when talking to them and answering questions from them and were occasionally willing to work together with Oranje to off a mutual scumread. Then in 4926 when
Narninian
was listing potential lynch targets
or luciankill targets don't quite remember
, Bulba says "nah" about
Oranje
as a potential kill and then is positive towards them ever since. What changed?

I think the only part of this that I still need answered is

“is this an accurate description of how your read on

Oranje

changed throughout the game” and “were you townreading

Oranje

or was it still being willing to work with a scumread to lynch a mutual scumread because multiball?”

(see a few paragraphs down) also, just in general, how accurate was the description of how your opinions of various slots changed.

It is interesting that I thought

Oranje

and

BBmolla

were mutually bussing the whole game and then retracted before even posting it because “nobody has teammates left” and then it turned out they were both scum (although on opposing teams). I think this is continuing the theme of “some of my early reads were right by accident”.

My read on Brantz is interesting too. I said I’d read his ISO a bunch of times and nothing was jumping out at me so “town I guess”. I now think that if after 250 pages nothing is jumping out at you that’s “scum I guess” not “town I guess” (

vonflare

,

peregrine

, etc.)

6275 Ivy reacts to the wall post. I do wish other people had taken him up on his plea for outside opinions about it.

6280 I like this reads wall from Ivy (and it answers the questions I wrote above about their

Oranje

read). 6284 Brantz liked it too.

6293 Mastin’s reads wall.

6328 is a good post from Ivy.

I coloured in the posts for some new flips in 6363 and

Titus

said to lynch me or Bulba. I don’t know if it was due to the new colours or not.

Spoiler: Titus dies. the votecount was wrong so I fixed it

We almost lynched

Orange

instead but BC pointed out that the wagon seemed too fast so people hopped off. Then we speed lynched

Titus

for no reason. My own vote I had been thinking about all day and it was dumb. My scumread on

Titus

was petulant because she said that if I worked hard and came up with reads I could be confident in then she would work with me and I did and then she didn’t because she thought the game was over anyway (6450). I learned something from it, though.

I had wanted to vote

Titus

the night before, but I had a new rule about no voting after midnight because I’d derphammered by mistake about a week or two prior to this in my ongoing (since completed) newbie game and it made me really hammershy and convinced me that voting wasn’t safe unless I was really really super sure that I was capable of counting. And then I spent most of the day trying to figure out what I should do and then other people were voting her so I thought they must be right. Lots of lessons learned.

I like 6411 from BC because they were right that 2 of the 4 people who were being widely townread there were scum.

6458 Ivy mentioned asking the mod a question. Was the answer to this question anything that can help us now?

6468 my preferred lynch order for the next day (this was twilight)

Oranje

,

Boon

,

BBmolla

,

Drixx

, BRantz, Bulba,

Chrivi

(I had initially included myself somewhere in the middle, forget where exactly, based on my perceived utility to the town, but then I took myself out)

6475 readslist from Ivy. Didn’t think

Oranje

and Brantz could be on the same team. Do you still think that?

251-260.

Plotinus · Post Post #7157 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 7:03 am

6500 I did a wall about

boonskiies

. I was less satisfied with this one than with my Bulbasaur Commonwealth one, even at the time. I think this one was hindered by confirmation bias because I did believe

Drixx’s

theory about the mafia rolecop thing and also there were things that I noticed, such as him not being opportunistic with his voting, that I should have assigned a lot more importance to than I did. I have since had some luck with this +-= method but I really won’t know until I see Bulbasaur Commonwealth’s flip whether it’s something I should keep doing or not. I think in the BC wall there was just so much more data available to analyse than there was with

Boonskiies

and his posting style is difficult for me to understand. I think it also requires a lot more activity from the person I’m doing it with to be accurate since the point is how someone’s opinions changed over time and there just wasn’t enough here. I did catch scum with it in my most recent newbie game but that was a lot more clearcut than this was. I think the main thing that helps me with is slowing me down enough to look at every sentence to see what it means.

6501 I did one about Brantz too. And I dunno about this either. It seems like I was missing the point here by summing up his interactions with green slots as a group. I want to look at his ISO again when I’m done this but he keep saying that he wasn’t here because of his role but he was removed the first time in 2063 and returned in 2410, missing about 14 pages. Then he was removed in 2956 and returned in 3661, missing 28 pages. Then he was removed in 6288 and returned in 6496, missing 8 pages. So in 287 page game, he was gone because of his role for 50 pages, or about 3/17ths of the game. But he was here for 237 pages and he has 123 posts so about once every couple pages.

6522, 6525 woah.

wgeurts

is scumposting again. And I think he’s taking credit for the coming nuke from orbit on

ChriVi

that will end this day.

6535 another reads list from Ivy.

Spoiler: We lynched Boon

I think the

Boon

lynch was understandable because he wasn’t paying attention and he kept arguing that BC was ascetic and that it was a scumslip of BC to want him to target him on night 7 when

ChriVi

would also have been targetting BC so he would have got a result that night.

Drixx’s

case made sense. Brantz in 6618 (twilight) still felt it was the best information lynch and was happy with his vote.

6643 from Brantz in twilight. He was happy to lynch me especially, or

oranje

/

drixx

(tied). Given that

drixx

was conf not-mafia at that point, why was he on the list at all?

260-267, day/twilight 8.

Plotinus · Post Post #7158 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 7:25 am

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:
↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:That doesn't mean that Plot can't be faking, nor that Brantz is flaking town.
I actually think it's probably kinda like this: if Plot is scum, then Plot is Berlin and they need to convince us that BRantz is a serial killer, since a serial killer BRantz looks more plausible than a scum-BRantz, albeit both being possible scenarios.

If Plot is town, then Plot needs to show why BRantz is the most likely candidate for being scum, be it Berlin or SK.

...Doesn't make the situation suck any less, though. :/

so I’ve been thinking about this since you posted it and while it’s probably accurate even, I feel like as a result of this post, that if I come out of this thinking that BRantz is more likely to be SK than Berlin then you’ll scumread me for it because that’s the option that you said scumPlot should go for, and I feel like if I come out of this with an argument that BRantz is more likely to be Berlin then people might say I was just doing that because that was the townPlot option and I really just want to examine whatever evidence is there and not close my mind to any possibilities yet.

I want to be free to consider an Oranje/Brantz SK team if it’s possible for there to be a team of SKs (Ivy said there was such a game), or Brantz/Narninian/Pirate Ika team if there are associatives to back it up, or to reconsider BC again though that’s looking less likely at the moment, or to figure out if Brantz-by-himself makes sense and what would that even mean because 3:2:1:7 seems ridiculous and 2:1:1:9 also seems unlikely.

I just don’t want to “if I think x is the most likely scenario, people are going to vote me because it’s what they think scumMe would be arguing for, so i shouldn’t argue x” to be something to factor into my calculations as to whether something is true or not, because x could still be true. If I have to be constantly thinking of what scumMe might do and doing the opposite instead of just playing the game normally and trying to figure out the truth, it’s going to mess me up. I’ll be less likely to find the truth if I do it that way.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #7159 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 8:03 am

Don't worry, if we vote you, it won't be for pushing BRantz in any manner.

Plotinus · Post Post #7160 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 8:17 am

thanks, that helps.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #7161 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 8:36 am

6413 is hilarious in hindsight. I'm a little miffed that we lynched Titus.

Plotinus · Post Post #7162 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:03 am

yeah. Before I joined this game, I read/skimmed Uncouth Mafia. I don’t remember why; might have been metadiving someone from my first newbie game or might have just been randomly browsing and the title caught my eye (I looked at Polite Mafia too and I remember I got to one from the other but i don’t remember which I saw first), and so I was really impressed with Titus’ VCA stuff. She was one of the few names I recognised when I replaced in. She would’ve been pretty useful in the days after her death, but we probably wouldn’t have let a double voter live to LYLO unless we could have trusted her to be town. We thought yesterday was LYLO and she would have been doublevoting that day but today is actually LYLO and she would have been voteless :/

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #7163 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:07 am

She would have, yeah.

↑ Plotinus wrote:6090 Boon says that he targeted BC the previous night, and Narninian also says that he redirected to BC that night (6068). Narninian could have been lying or I dunno how the two powers would interact at all (would that count as 2 or 3 people targetting them?). Ivy responds to this (and other things) in 6094. Were you townreading Narninian, then? Or you thought that meant nobody targetted the masonry? Why are you voting me there while calling out an inconsistency with Narninian and Boon? (I also still don’t really see why my posts up to that point were scummy but ok. I can see it for some of my later posts but I was just being dumb.)

There was no inconsistency unless we knew Narn was redirecting a shot. Although...would the fact Narn redirected to me count as a target, or would it only count if he actually sent something my way? I suspect the latter because boon said he got nothing.

↑ Plotinus wrote:6475 readslist from Ivy. Didn’t think Oranje and Brantz could be on the same team. Do you still think that?

Two-scum team, one with unlimited commute, the other with a pseudocider. Tell me how that's not OP as fuck.

I still feel like sticking by my previous statement that only one of BRantz/OC is scum of any type. Don't feel like voting BRantz.

Plotinus · Post Post #7164 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:36 am

but i’m town

If you vote me then we lose. I don’t know how to convince you but I think scumMe would have both been doing a better job and a worse job at the same time. Worse because it would have been my very first time ever (second by now), and I would have slipped in the analysis somewhere. And better, especially early on, because someone would have presumably been alive to help me: Narninian, BBmolla, Oranje. Nobody if werewolf but I’m pretty sure we’re out of werewolves. Instead, Narninian faked a guilty on me out of nowhere. BBmolla was buddying me. Oranje had it in for me too. I don’t think any of this is enough to clear me because it’s LYLO and question everything in LYLO but it’s my first time not being conftown in LYLO, but I wanted to say something more than “but my rolepm says i’m town”.

We had 6 cops and 2 trackers in this game. We had at least 2 townies with some form of bulletproof/nk immunity (drixx, me, you). The town was pretty OP too and there has been a lot of speculation throughout the whole game that if the town had this many roles and abilities then what did the scum have to make up for it? Maybe you’re right that it’s OP. But each scum team had some way of dodging crosskills. Each scum team had something OP. narninian’s kill direct, molla’s ability which made him universally townread after he confirmed it. The werewolves never claimed but they at least had a bulletproof. We can speculate that Oranje can’t commute and kill in the same night. Maybe the pseudocider was 1 shot in the original game (it was in the Tarhalindur game anyway). The pseudocider role is great for getting out of a lynch and that’s how Brantz used it on day 1. From that point forward it didn’t matter how many shots he had because town was going to force him to use all his shots before LYLO anyway. And any night he didn’t use it he could have been cross killed.

I don’t know if it’s true or not. I’m speculating. But okay, you have doubtless seen more setups than I have before. Is this idea in the 1% plausibility range or the 10% or what? If it’s only 1% plausible then yeah maybe I should drop it but if it’s just unlikely then meh. 8 investigative roles seemed unlikely too but they’ve all flipped.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #7165 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:38 am

↑ Plotinus wrote:Worse because it would have been my very first time ever (second by now), and I would have slipped in the analysis somewhere.

Problem is...there's areas where I feel like you're digging your own grave analytically.

And better, especially early on, because someone would have presumably been alive to help me: Narninian, BBmolla, Oranje.

The problem

there

being you did...particularly, yesterday. Yeah, you're without a doubt not Volcano, but Molla WAS scum, and WAS helping you. You two were voting together in fact, on us. (BRantz was voting Molla and wasn't around to hammer us, but if he had been and didn't, this would be a fairly easy decision. Benefit of the doubt, though, works in your favor here.)

Basically my feelings on the subject are that I think you're scum that's :efforted:...but that I'd feel absolutely, terrifically

horrible

if wrong and handing the win over to a lurksack like BRantz.

-V.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #7166 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:53 am

↑ BRantz wrote:@Plot: I have not used up my psuedocides yet. I have 1 left, that I have promised to use by the end of the day tomorrow. Also I was around for night 3 as well as night 5 and devoured was not a night kill flavor on night 3.

My reads:
Town: TPTG, ChriVi
Probably Town: Death, BC, Drixx, Boon
Not sure where to put: Titus, BBMolla, Narn
Scum: Plot, Oranje

VOTE: Plotinus

BRantz was fairly consistent in saying Oranje was scum, btw. That, and OC's attitude towards him, makes a team look like an unlikely prospect. What little Narn interactions are there point against being Berlin, too, and the limited pirate ika interactions support that conclusion.

Basically, basic analysis tells me that if BRantz is scum, the far most likely type is independent scum.

Bulbasaur Commonwealth · Post Post #7167 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:04 pm

Huh.

I just found something interesting.

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally

interesting.

↑ Narninian wrote:100% Town

Narninian - from my perspective obviously
Three-Pronged Trouser God (Untrod Tripod & kuribo & T-Bone) -- mason partner is dead
ChriVi (Chrimi & Viomi)- 1 way mason partner dead
----------------------------------------------
Town Lean
deathfisaro - Certainly not werewolf, if an investigator would have probably been better off not nailing opposing scum team with so many town to kill still. Boonskiis's clear certainly helps.
BBmolla -- claim isn't proof of town, but nightskip seems to be best suited to town. Has hit any red flags posting wise for me
Titus - may have done her share of tunneling but I don't see a scum angle from this

Undetermined
Boonskiies - once he gives us a result we can use, I'll feel better about him.
Bulbasaur Commonwealth (Bulbazak & mastin2 & Voidedmafia) - nothing stands out here.
---------------------------------------
Scum lean
Drixx
BRantz -
Oranje Crush.

...Where's Plotinus in there? I'm pretty sure he's the only member missing.

This looks like it easily could be something that was quickly copy-pasted from the mafia topic (with modifications), where he forgot to add Plot back in. (Keep in mind, he'd be legitimately scumhunting.)

Plotinus · Post Post #7168 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:43 pm

ok, well you can either wait until i’m done and see if you still think that (I can understand not wanting to spoonfeed someone the answers by telling them what to fix, so wait if you feel you need to), or you can bring up things that bother you (now or later) and we can discuss them. LYLO is pretty stressful for me too. I will go over the analysis and see how much I still agree with when I’m done — I wasn’t feeling well for part of it but I’m feeling a bit better today. The first 3 days felt like good thinking at the time (and that was before bbmolla started cuddling up to me) and then the middle I wasn’t feeling that great but I’ll distill it down to something coherent when it’s done.

By earlier, I meant back in early April when I was noobslipping all over the place.

I hope someday i’ll get better at noticing when someone is buddying me, and when I do, I hope it carries over to real life too. So far it works about once a game and when it happens it amplifies my townparanoia in bad ways. I’m sorry about yesterday. I did get one thing out of it though: your response seemed town to me. I’ve seen townflailing in LYLO before from the player I was voting/FoSing as town. That’s not why I did it; at the start of all of this I really wasn’t sure which of you/Brantz was town and then molla got under my skin and I started seeing things and then by the end of it I thought that molla was town for sure and that you could have been scum. I wasn’t sure, but I was confbiasing by then. I was wrong. I don’t know if I can change your mind. But you’re not voting me yet so that’s encouraging.

Brantz hasn’t posted in 2 days and 2 hours. It seems he’s the sit back and let town implode type.

pedit: yeah, I mentioned that I was missing from that one in my analysis. It was weird because he went on to fake a guilty on me but he left me off his reads list. Narninian gave little sign of legitimately scumhunting in thread; he voteparked on BBmolla for most of the game.

Plotinus · Post Post #7169 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:45 pm

↑ Plotinus wrote:6040
Narninian
posts a reads list. It was probably mostly made up out of thin air because he was scum but he probably wanted his reads to sound plausible. I read that scum usually put their buddies in the null section or the scumlean section because if you put all your buddies really close to the conftown section people get suspicious. He was completely null on Bulbasaur Commonwealth which was odd. Nothing stands out? After all their posts? Is
Narninian
one of those “I don’t read walls so ~unfortunately~ I can’t get a read on any of the wall posters” people? And this is coming right after the
deathfisaro
thing. Bulbasaur Commonwealth had been active participants in the thread for a while by now so being null on them is kind of weird. Brantz was in the scumlean section, with no explanation given.
I’m completely left off the list which is strange because he’s about to fake a guilty on me.
And he votes
Drixx
. So basically all of us are in places I’d expect to find a scumbuddy on a readslist. bah.
Titus
complains that he didn’t mention me so he puts me in the scumleans section in 6044
. His preferred lynch order was
Drixx
,
Oranje
, me, Brantz.

Plotinus · Post Post #7170 (ISO) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:06 pm

↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:
↑ BRantz wrote:@Plot: I have not used up my psuedocides yet. I have 1 left, that I have promised to use by the end of the day tomorrow. Also I was around for night 3 as well as night 5 and devoured was not a night kill flavor on night 3.

My reads:
Town: TPTG, ChriVi
Probably Town: Death, BC, Drixx, Boon
Not sure where to put: Titus, BBMolla, Narn
Scum: Plot, Oranje

VOTE: Plotinus
BRantz was fairly consistent in saying Oranje was scum, btw. That, and OC's attitude towards him, makes a team look like an unlikely prospect. What little Narn interactions are there point against being Berlin, too, and the limited pirate ika interactions support that conclusion.

Basically, basic analysis tells me that if BRantz is scum, the far most likely type is independent scum.

ok. I’ll think about that some more I guess. It did look like wgeurts was claiming nuked from orbit in places but that could have just been him being himself? I mean sometimes it looked like wgeurts and broseidon were bussing each other, so it could be that brantz was bussing them too. I’ll think about it some more. But I’m not sure what you mean about the Narninian interactions. He had very very few interactions with either of them and he was neutral on all of them, and I read that scum are more likely to be null on their buddies.

Spoiler: Brantz’ interactions with Pirate Ika: (neutral, slightly positive, then post cop guilty agreeing they should be shot) 5 total:

↑ BRantz wrote:
↑ Pirate Ika wrote:

*he looks over to brats and sees hes on his phone*

"YOU, CLAIM YE NEIGHBORS"

You callin me a brat?

I'm not in a neighborhood, I just see no town reason to claim what ice claimed and to demand all people in a neighborhood claim.

↑ BRantz wrote:Ika is an oddball. The only time I have seen him get invested in a game was when a wagon formed on him.

↑ BRantz wrote:
↑ VysePresident wrote:Posting that I'll be posting tonight to pressure myself into posting tonight instead of falling asleep again.

Short thoughts to keep this from being completely useless are that I don't like the Drixx wagon, glad to see that dying. I like Orange for Town a lot more now, Molla for Town still, ChiVi leans slightly Town for the reason Kuribo stopped Townreading them. (Don't think they'd want to admit that as scum.) Om is meh-Town. BRantz is scummy, need to look back at Copper to see if he's still scummy. Actual thoughts & reasoning coming tonight.

-Not a neighbor.

-As a side note, I think Drixx is pretty darn cool.

Actual thoughts & stuff coming tonight.

I am anxiously awaiting this post from you Vyse. Hopefully it will let me know whether you are scum calling me scum or town calling me scum and either way we should be able to move forward.

UNVOTE:

Trouser is probably town (at least I am inclined to put Kuribo's meltdown in that category).
Molla is probably town.
Vonflare is something...
Om might be town.
Don't know what to think of pika yet.
Oranje is probably town.
Boon is leaning town.
Fairly null on ActionDan.
Lucian seems to be trying hard to sit on the sidelines, might be scum (for an example of this see 568).
I was probably wrong about ice, he is probably town.
My read on Copper keeps waffling, but I tend to lean town on him because we have similar thought processes about things (may be bias).
Drixx's most recent posts are the drixx I expected when a case showed up, not the yell at everyone about how bad the case is and how they should feel bad, so null for now but looking more townish.
Death is probably town.
Everyone else is still null

@pika (mollie specifically): Are you posting almost all of the hydra posts so far?

@Dan: Why do you keep avoiding engaging in conversation with me? It is all well and good for you to sit there and throw accusations at me, but at some point you are going to have to talk to me about them.

VOTE: Vonflare

positive lean:

↑ BRantz wrote:
↑ Soren wrote:
↑ God of Power Outlets wrote:
↑ Pirate Ika wrote:tbone are you...
flirting with me?

okay I know ut is out of town and kuribo works a ton. can you walk me through your unvote on vonny other than you think neverice made a point that for some strange reason that I really can't understand you agree with?

babe, let the third-head tell you something soulful. I'm a bad man, a part of a sexy monster...but I have dreams you know....I sleep even when my other heads do not...I dream....I dream of golden fields of dongs....I dream of this game....A game in which nevermeltice's defense of vonflare as a VI resonated with me....

I think he has a point in saying vonflare is just playing bad and playing bad doesn't equal scum, and upon looking at my Scumrod in the mirror and shouting it down, I realized that there are other scummy players in this game, and they deserve the same tender loving care from the three prongs the stick out from our trousers that we have given vonflare. I'm not saying vonflare is town, I'm saying I've backed off on my read a bit because I can see some points another player is making. We all had a talk in our temple made of stone and dongs, and we have other mutual reads to pursue. I didn't pursue them in that post, because I was phone-posting and unvoting was difficult enough.

Vote: deathfisaro

Come get some TLC from my mighty Scumrod buddy. You're sketchy as fuck, and until you alleviate that, you shall drink from my mighty dong.

My sexy pirates, our other mutual scumreads are Lucian, Soren, and Vyse (death), can you talk to me babe?

I'm not scum.

This is just awful posting.

↑ Never-melt-ice wrote:
↑ Marquis wrote:
↑ Bulbasaur Commonwealth wrote:If one of the neighbors have a PR, then I don't think they should. Even if they're all VTs, I don't really see why they should claim today (other than because of your role, and even then I don't think every potential neighbor should claim).

They don't have to claim their PR. I just want to know if they're a neighbor. And I don't see how them just claiming neighbor makes them any more likely to have another PR in scum's view.

↑ Marquis wrote:While I wouldn't classify vonflare's contributions as VI (the term is more than a little extreme), I'm very sure he's town. And the wagon just looks... subpar. Ivysaur, half a line of analysis on vonflare there and you vote him over Toon?

I have different skins how did this even happen

lol... oh hi marquis! (I am excited to actually play a game with you since you didn't have time for Persona)

↑ LucianRoy wrote:
↑ BRantz wrote:Ika is an oddball. The only time I have seen him get invested in a game was when a wagon formed on him.

Are you subtly suggesting something?

Obviously not. Just telling copper about my experience with ika. I see no reason why we should wagon pika today, and mollies recent posting has me leaning town there.

Not a fan of Lucian's current "should or shouldn't I claim" teasing he is doing.

Soren's posting for the past few pages has been completely awful.

↑ BRantz wrote:I agree that we should shoot pika today. If he flips scum I think oranje, Vyse or vonflare. If he flips town lynch ozgin.

Will give it till tonight so people can ask me anything I may have missed or talk to me about whatever, then will leave again.

Spoiler: Brantz’ interactions with Narninian (only four total. mostly neutral)

slightly negative:

↑ BRantz wrote:Firefox is trying to ruin my life, it crashed as I finished my post.

Short and sweet version:

The wagon on me is full of opportunistic voters (Narn, ChriVi, Jackel, and Von are the most egregious), and had I been around this weekend I would have claimed a day or so ago.

CLAIM: I am a town 3-shot Psuedocider. I can remove myself from the game at any point during a day phase, and be effectively dead until the start of the next day. This lynch will not happen today unless anyone can give me better reason than Vyse that I should die.

Vyse has pushed an awful case against me and an awful case against Copper, and that is the entirety of what he has done today, all he does is yell at people to talk about me and copper, he is trying to force the town to tunnel. VOTE: VysePresident

@Lucian: Are you claiming that it is a scum tell that you had to ask me about my scum read reasons in 1926? If so that is completely awful. Also why point out the obvious about some arguments being potential noise, and the fact that there have been a lot of arguments this game without giving your opinion one which have been real and which have been noise?

The argument between Cerberus, Copper, and Trouser on page 76 feels like 3 town players to me.

Post 1877 by Drixx looks like a potential attempt to buddy. Cerberus' response to it feels town to me in 1882.

I think those are the major things.

neutral:

↑ BRantz wrote:
↑ deathfisaro wrote:Okay so now both mafia factions have no indication that they contain werewolves, I'm strongly sticking to my setup spec, not that it would matter much when I'm dead tomorrow morning.
Berlin Mafia: Nuke from orbit - delayed NK (NK on N# happens at the end of D#+1)
Tropical Volcano Lair Mafia: incinerate
Werewolf SK: eviscerate

Also what's a Renovator? Wiki search turns up nothing.

The only issue with this is that Vyse (who is also Volcano) ended up incinerated, and we have no claimed role that can redirect a kill from a faction back to that faction (If I remember correctly Narn specifically said that he couldn't do this?) So the kill flavors are probably wrong?

setup spec:

↑ BRantz wrote:Its also possible they stopped because both factions are dead Narn? (With two of each of those factions being dead)

neutral:

↑ BRantz wrote:@Plot: I have not used up my psuedocides yet. I have 1 left, that I have promised to use by the end of the day tomorrow. Also I was around for night 3 as well as night 5 and devoured was not a night kill flavor on night 3.

My reads:
Town: TPTG, ChriVi
Probably Town: Death, BC, Drixx, Boon
Not sure where to put: Titus, BBMolla, Narn
Scum: Plot, Oranje

VOTE: Plotinus

That’s it. In the entire ISO. hardly interacts with them at all even thought they were both alive for 6 days together and most of the interactions are neutral or he states he is null reading them.

Plotinus · Post Post #7171 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2015 4:43 am

Day 9 begins. 6653 Brantz speculates about the nightkill. I know sometimes nightkill spec is scummy and sometimes it isn’t. could go either way on this nightkill spec in particular.

I like Brantz’ question in 6655 to

OC

.

6672 of mine was stupid but if I were nuke, then why would I say “

OC

is probably devour but we should search for nuke”?

6677 yes this was right why did i let

bbmolla

change my mind about this?

6686 yeah, okay, I don’t see Brantz saying this of a teammate.

Brantz and

BBmolla

spent most of [url=http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... start=6675]Page 268[/post] trying to help me be less bad at mafia. On the other site in my one mafia game, I did spend some time giving out good advice for town cred but I spent a lot more time just agreeing with whatever bad idea the town had come up with that was playing into our hands, like they decided to spend a third of each day phase not discussing anything and not scumhunting and posting all their ideas spoilered so they wouldn’t be influenced by scum and we were all quite happy to agree that this was a protown thing to do. And then they had another idea that had all of the proscum benefits of a massclaim but none of the protown benefits (it was gorgeous) and we were all over that too. but i don’t think the enthusiastically agreeing with bad ideas strategy would work here; there are too many players around who could be suspicious if a good player started agreeing with the village idiot’s bad ideas. So I think Brantz and

BBmolla

were giving actually good advice here and it did lead to me understanding why you lynch scum today if you know someone is scum. (On that note, I’m kind of wondering in hindsight why none of [

Driix

, BC] brought the buddying my attention yesterday. It’s something that is easier to see when you’re not being targetted by it, I think. I would have included Brantz but he wasn’t here.)

Anyway, it was around page 269-270 that I stop sucking as a player.

6742 Brantz joins the OC wagon.

6754 Brantz leaves the OC wagon.

6754 I make a wall against

BBmolla

and I was right.

6767 so far, every single player that has called me a r*tard or a moron or called me garbage or otherwise told me how terrible I was has flipped scum. BBmolla (the tamest of these), wgeurts, freeko in my other game. It seems like everytime I (early on) accidentally stumble into a correct scumread, or (more recently) on purpose and confidentally correctly scumread someone, people insult me in very specific ways. The sample size is pretty small, though.

End of twilight 9. The whole of day 9 was interesting. People who are just now starting to pay attention again should probably just start reading from the start of day 9 (page 267)

This was 267-275.

Plotinus · Post Post #7172 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2015 5:11 am

Day 10!

So in twilight the day before, Oranje had claimed that he shot at BBmolla, who didn’t die. BBmolla immediately agreed that he should be the lynch of the day.

6860 Brantz opens the day with a vote on me. ???

6868 Ivy is scumhunting.

6880 Translation: well sure we have to lynch bbmolla but i know he’ll flip town and plot will be the easiest to mislynch tomorrow

Everyone else is scrambling to try to figure things out, to make sense of what the

Oranje

/

BBmolla

thing means and Brantz is just whatever.

In 6895, I start looking at ISOs of the dead looking for associatives. I start with the orange team. "I was hoping this exercise would make things clearer, or maybe even clear

molla

since he has been acting really protown this day phase, but i’m only seeing associative tells with

bbmolla

here”. And then I kept going because I couldn’t tell if the associatives were on purpose to frame the miller or not. bleh. but I was right about something!

6904 red team associatives with Brantz, but I thought red team was eliminated because oranje didn’t have the autopsy abilities he said had (or at least, his role name didn’t look like it).

6905 blue team associatives with nobody.

it should be noted that in all 3 of these i compare their interactions with my own slot and all the living players slots and with their scumbuddies and look for whether they were treating anybody similarly to the way they treated their scumbuddies and i was using their interactions with me as a litmus test for how they interacted with town players (or at least, players whose alignment they didn’t know because multiball). I don’t know if the more experienced players will come to the same conclusions that I did in these 3 posts, but there are links to every interaction those dead scum had with your slots so you can use it as a litmus test of your own if you want.

After that I felt like I was at a dead end because the signs were saying molla maybe orange and Brantz maybe red but I was townreading both of them and nobody was interacting with me or asking me questions about my conclusions and everyone was prodging and I started prodging too and focused on my other game which was going well and I was gaining confidence in my town game after several bad town games where my reads were all wrong and no matter how hard I tried I couldn’t solve things, finally had some successes elsewhere.

And somewhere in there my 2nd game on the other site finished up (my team won but my alignment changed on the last fucking day and then I lost a three way coinflip) and then this was my only ongoing game and nothing was happening and everyone was apathetic and I didn’t know what to do. Then I spent a couple days just randomly reading ongoing games because I was bored.

And then I remembered that one player in that newbie game had said they were bored so they were focusing on their other games even though we were 3 days from the deadline and I yelled at them and said that if it was boring then it was 11% their own fault (because 9 player) and so I thought of that and realised that in this 5 player game where were all prodging it was 20% my own fault that things were boring. So I started rereading.

And then I started this liveblog on page 278 near the top on 27 May, almost exactly 9 days ago.

The first 3 days, I was in this manic hyperfocus state but I felt at the time that the thinking was good. I’ll go read through it now and see if I still think that. The next 2-3 days I was feeling poorly and bbmolla was getting under my skin and buddying me but we’ll see how much of that still makes sense, and then slowly after bbmolla’s flip I’ve been finding my train of thought again.

So I’m going to reread the liveblog now and then we can talk.

Plotinus · Post Post #7173 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2015 7:12 am

Actually, Brantz, where are you? Do you have any thoughts on anything? If you’re town, why aren’t you either working together with your townread or engaging in scumhunting?

BRantz · Post Post #7174 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2015 8:36 am

The last few days have been busier than expected (as is want to happen when coming back from a week long vacation sometimes). Am headed in to work, but when I get home I promise I will have a post to talk about your analysis with you Plot. Vegas was amazing thanks for asking.