Mini 1677 - Ori and the Blind Forest Mafia - Forest Revived

[Tere]

FWIW I read the replace itself of singer as neutral - I don't even know if the replace was due to Metal's list mod shenannies Day 1, but I could see her feeling that put her in a difficult place regardless of alignment.



PSA @ Metal: Don't do that shit as town, it's really fucking annoying and reading through I was scumreading your slot based on that alone as well. Bad Metal, no biscuit.

[Frogging Mollie]

You should still come vote Plum with me though!

I thought you wanted me to do a thought experiment, not blindly vote someone.

If I come to that conclusion, I come to that conclusion.

I will say, I townread Plum early D1. I think I've moved somewhere nullish since, but honestly, being off and on the past 2 weeks because of work travel has left me forgetting where I stood on Plum.

[Tere]

Eh, if you ISO her she's obvscum as far as I'm concerned. Try to map out her reads and her rationale for them. It's just a whole load of marshmallow just going with the flow, no conviction about anything really. Votes based on others cases, skating by.

[Tere]

I'm town, Yukari was town, Mollie is town, ika is town, Plum leans town, will ISO ZZZX and get some other pressing stuff on the table in an hour or so.

Why is Plum a town lean for you, Cho?

Bumping so it's not lost, because I'd still like an answer to this.

[Tere]

I'm town, Yukari was town, Mollie is town, ika is town, Plum leans town, will ISO ZZZX and get some other pressing stuff on the table in an hour or so.

Why is Plum a town lean for you, Cho?

Bumping so it's not lost, because I'd still like an answer to this.

Hydrangea, Boo and Dragon can answer this too, while I am at it.

[Plum]

plum I can accept that newbs will not understand the importance of resolving the yukari/cho vs us issue but i am having a really hard time accepting the reluctance from you cos you know what happens if this is not resolved.

it shld be between cho and us and really no other lynch is optimal at this point so why are you being useless with your vote.

I wish I were convinced that just one flip in this game could resolve

anything

. And I blame Yukari entirely. I have every reason to believe that whatever your alignment is, you're playing it in a way I and most others would recognize as rational. I have no reason to believe that, whatever Yukari's alignment (I'd say Town if you put a gun to my head, so), they were playing it in a way I or most here would recognize as rational. That said, you question whether it'll ever get cleaned up without lynching at least one of you and Cho? Fair question, I guess, but. Most players aren't convinced it's a 1v1 situation. I'm not, either. So I'm not sure it's a situation that directly worries about being cleaned up that way?

@Plum: Do you feel very engaged in this game? Do you think you're getting a good idea of the ebb and flow and general gamestate now that some of the shrieking hostility has died down?

Saying that there's ebb and flow going on is generous. I'd say I don't know how engaged I feel. The most novel thing going on right now is Tere pushing me. Which is fine, but it mostly consists of Tere going around to other people saying 'reread Plum and see how obvscum she is/tell me why you're not reading her as scum, because you should'. Which, look, I understand Tere has no obligation to structure her play here otherwise and if she thinks it's effective I have no basis for complaint as such, but it's not the sort of push on oneself that very well leads to me being able to do anything productive with it. I could make some speculation as to what Tere means and spend some time going over my votes and opinions and why I said what I said and did what I did. But as it stands, I don't see who would benefit. Only Tere might be interested (might), but I doubt what I have to say at this stage would really change Tere's opinion on me in any way, and to the rest of the players it seems like it would currently be meaningless.

Read on ZZZX: I don't flipping know. In and of himself, rereading? I think I was wrong earlier today, I'd say Town. Maybe bias because I think his reaction to WNI's play Day 1 was relatable to me: I suspected WNI largely on the basis of 'his behavior towards MS and the MS wagon doesn't seem to add up, whatever alignment MS is', until the Neighborhood claims, which somewhat clarified that behavioral path. It was a relationship to MS that didn't make sense except in light of hidden information, so I felt justified that something pinged me not-quite-right-dar. And I'm currently feeling like you, Bookitty, are a decent bet for scum and ZZZX's trajectory regarding you makes sense in context.

What about you, Bookitty? You feeling engaged in the game?

ZZZX, you up for a Bookitty wagon?

[dragonspawn]

I'm not sure why a Mollie v Cho showdown is necessarily a bad idea. I'm feeling rather confident that one of them is scum

As for plum. As I said I was town reading him from what I saw day one. But it slipped into null with the zzzx vote.

I could easily see him as scum. But I find the yukari slot much more suspect. I. Not entirely sure why leaving both alive will resolve anything either way. I can be persuaded but I'm just not seeing it now.

I could get on board with a boo lynch but I'm not sure why I should ignore the bigger scum read at the moment.

[Tere]

once upon a time I used to make real cases against scum. I stopped, because it gave scum tons of ammunition and people went "cases are scummy" and flaked out.

I find your reaction to my very deliberate blandness of my case all the information I require, really. It's a very good scum detector for me.

But carry on wriggling.

[Tere]

I'm not sure why a Mollie v Cho showdown is necessarily a bad idea. I'm feeling rather confident that one of them is scum

As for plum. As I said I was town reading him from what I saw day one. But it slipped into null with the zzzx vote.

I could easily see him as scum. But I find the yukari slot much more suspect. I. Not entirely sure why leaving both alive will resolve anything either way. I can be persuaded but I'm just not seeing it now.

I could get on board with a boo lynch but I'm not sure why I should ignore the bigger scum read at the moment.

Why is Cho suspect?

Why is it sufficient that you feel it's more important than the risk of lynching claimed vig?

[Tere]

Non game related info here:

Spoiler: shamelessly pimping my GTKAS across all games

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=62059

[Plum]

once upon a time I used to make real cases against scum. I stopped, because it gave scum tons of ammunition and people went "cases are scummy" and flaked out.

I find your reaction to my very deliberate blandness of my case all the information I require, really. It's a very good scum detector for me.

But carry on wriggling.

Look, it would at least give me something else to talk about. I understand the playstyle choice, and I understand, alas, the confirmation bias going on, okay? I get it. Please go on sucking the fun out of the game for me by harping on how self-satisfied you are with your approach here.

[Tere]

wah wah wah ATE conf bias - are you going for scumword bingo or something?

[Plum]

Uh, no. I just don't feel the need to hide my frustration. I'm happy to be honest about when you're bothering me. If this furthers your notion that I'm scum, I accept that. If you don't believe that I'd express this exasperation as Town, I accept that.

[Tere]

Vote isn't shifting. Maybe I am holding you to a higher standard because mollie went OMG Plum I worship at your feet and Boo went OMG Plum <3 and Andrius went OMG Plum <3. I am sure you are a completely nice human being but given that positive response I was expecting you to do actual constructive townstuff and have a clue and you are doing the square root of fuck all to help the game state for town. Basically given that reception I expect you to be decent, you know?

OK, so here's the olive branch. We're at 1600 posts in, if you are really town and as good as people seem to think you are you should be able to come up with your first reads list, right, right? With rationale and logic and stuff? That's not too much to ask for, is it? Because we as sure as fuck haven't seen anything that looks anything like that yet <3

It's not helped by the only townie actively scumreading you dying, with a side order of that pushes mollie to lynch pressure and a 1 v 1 vs yukari. Yeah.

See, I think you are competent. I just don't think we are on the same side.

[Frogging Mollie]

I wish I were convinced that just one flip in this game could resolve

anything

. And I blame Yukari entirely. I have every reason to believe that whatever your alignment is, you're playing it in a way I and most others would recognize as rational. I have no reason to believe that, whatever Yukari's alignment (I'd say Town if you put a gun to my head, so), they were playing it in a way I or most here would recognize as rational. That said, you question whether it'll ever get cleaned up without lynching at least one of you and Cho? Fair question, I guess, but. Most players aren't convinced it's a 1v1 situation. I'm not, either. So I'm not sure it's a situation that directly worries about being cleaned up that way?

lets play the tape through, shall we?

we are currently at 3 to 8 with 2 conflicting claims on the table, 1 in which is in the set-up (and I am thinking we are not the only vt, just a guess) and the vig claim isn't. in order for both claims to be true presupposes ANOTHER role not on the list which is a scum rb/jk. with 2 mislynches to burn and 2 conflicting claims it wld seem to me it wld be much more beneficial to town to sort this out now rather than risk it at a later point in the game. it is a way of removing noise now as opposed to later when the noise cld really bite town in the ass cos if we are both town then I doubt will nk either of us as long as this question mark is in play. if chokari is scum well scum shot themselves in the foot d1 but town has reached such a state of apathy that they might not recognize it further into the game. it isn't just the yukari claim itself, it is how cho has handled it too.

it seems like perpetuating the situ better serves mistspreading than trying to cut through the chaff and get to the heart of the game.

I kept trying to point out that there are 3 confclaims on the table (neighbours) which are NOT in the list of possible roles so that brings it to 10 unclaimed roles. 4 of which are still in play and we are claiming 1 of them. which is vt which limits our ability to resolve the game via other means.

Saying that there's ebb and flow going on is generous. I'd say I don't know how engaged I feel. The most novel thing going on right now is Tere pushing me. Which is fine, but it mostly consists of Tere going around to other people saying 'reread Plum and see how obvscum she is/tell me why you're not reading her as scum, because you should'. Which, look, I understand Tere has no obligation to structure her play here otherwise and if she thinks it's effective I have no basis for complaint as such, but it's not the sort of push on oneself that very well leads to me being able to do anything productive with it. I could make some speculation as to what Tere means and spend some time going over my votes and opinions and why I said what I said and did what I did. But as it stands, I don't see who would benefit. Only Tere might be interested (might), but I doubt what I have to say at this stage would really change Tere's opinion on me in any way, and to the rest of the players it seems like it would currently be meaningless.

I wld very much like it if you wld explain your reads and your votes and thought progression.

I don't think they are meaningless.

Read on ZZZX: I don't flipping know. In and of himself, rereading? I think I was wrong earlier today, I'd say Town. Maybe bias because I think his reaction to WNI's play Day 1 was relatable to me: I suspected WNI largely on the basis of 'his behavior towards MS and the MS wagon doesn't seem to add up, whatever alignment MS is', until the Neighborhood claims, which somewhat clarified that behavioral path. It was a relationship to MS that didn't make sense except in light of hidden information, so I felt justified that something pinged me not-quite-right-dar. And I'm currently feeling like you, Bookitty, are a decent bet for scum and ZZZX's trajectory regarding you makes sense in context.

What about you, Bookitty? You feeling engaged in the game?

ZZZX, you up for a Bookitty wagon?

I don't remember zzthing's trajectory on boo, cld you plz remind me?

[Tere]

Mollie elu already crumbed my role to ika and he saw it, I have been avoiding but I can claim if it will help?

[Bellaphant]

@zzx, where's your head at with regards to scum on your wagon, especially if I am not it? I don't know why you want a one v one with me: I've said your survivalist vibe is odd, but that's not something that needs picking apart.

@Tere, hi. You replaced elu, who, like Grib said, was obv!town, and I've really liked your play so far. Grib is also most probably town.

In terms of the game, I'm struggling a little: there was a lot of drama day 1/2, and I'm finding some of FroggingMollie's convictions, such as 'lynch either her/Cho and somehow balance will be returned to the force' as setting up some false dichotomies. Unfortunately for sorting purposes, this kind of black/white view seems to be at least Mollie's meta elsewhere, so it's not a reason to scum-read the slot.

Cho's insistence on a mafia bp makes sense, but a RB and a BP seems over strong: what are your thoughts here? However, Yukari's posting did seem to go against win-con, and they clearly wanted out of the game: anyone who uses their newb!queue desperation as a scum tell is scummy as fuck. (Also, I think you mentioned they were playing one now: oog, checking that made me really happy).

In terms of reads, I'm still not 100% convinced letters isn't scum, but some of this may be based off of frustration with his posting style, but his posting was similar in a just completed game of ours and he was town. So he's not a town-read, maybe null.

Boo and dragon aren't really making me town-read them, there doesn't seem to be a huge connection to the game. Boo's been pretty flexible with her thoughts, which is a plus, but I'd also like something concrete from them. @boo, readslist?

Plum is a scum-read. It's mostly gut, sure, but she's kind of got the boo problem of being really flexible/not committing to a hard read (see the pot shots on me that weren't really backed up by anything) without the occasional flashes of towniness I'm getting from boo.

Hydra is a blank for me, right now. I'd like to see more content.

That leaves ika: can you talk to me about your read on him, tere?

Hope that helps, please follow anything up with me!

p-edit, lots happened while typing, will follow up in a bit.

[Tere]

/confirm

Not at all pleased ZZZX is in the game but PLUM shines like a Silmaril in the darkness. <3

And like a Silmaril I shall burn the impure <3

Obligatory: am annoyed by policy lynch being brought up, even though it's not alignment-indicative - well, no, especially because it isn't. We're not going there because it is void of information. Now that's out of the way.

VOTE: Metal Sonic

Nope nope nope. The 'sheeping ika because he's ika' thing already got asked and ignored once. In combination with

I didn't like singer's mere confirm either. Surely she should have seen the long talk that we have already made.

also, Sheeping ika

VOTE: singer

O rly. When the 'long talk' was mostly you screwing around saying nothing? Sheeping ika twice just because but he doesn't even make it as someone worth saying 'He's a top priority read because if he's Town he'll be great to work with'? Okay.

Preview ninja edit: Yeah I feel totally comfortable with how this is going. Awesome.

Basically I have seen a fuckton of nothing of "like a Silmaril I shall burn the impure" to your buddy who replaced out (who then became a scumread, possibly, maybe, because who the hell knows what your reads are).

Plum, if you are this experienced, why haven't you separated the 1 v 1s? Where is your scumhunting? What gives?

[Tere]

@zzx, where's your head at with regards to scum on your wagon, especially if I am not it? I don't know why you want a one v one with me: I've said your survivalist vibe is odd, but that's not something that needs picking apart.

@Tere, hi. You replaced elu, who, like Grib said, was obv!town, and I've really liked your play so far. Grib is also most probably town.

In terms of the game, I'm struggling a little: there was a lot of drama day 1/2, and I'm finding some of FroggingMollie's convictions, such as 'lynch either her/Cho and somehow balance will be returned to the force' as setting up some false dichotomies. Unfortunately for sorting purposes, this kind of black/white view seems to be at least Mollie's meta elsewhere, so it's not a reason to scum-read the slot.

Cho's insistence on a mafia bp makes sense, but a RB and a BP seems over strong: what are your thoughts here? However, Yukari's posting did seem to go against win-con, and they clearly wanted out of the game: anyone who uses their newb!queue desperation as a scum tell is scummy as fuck. (Also, I think you mentioned they were playing one now: oog, checking that made me really happy).

In terms of reads, I'm still not 100% convinced letters isn't scum, but some of this may be based off of frustration with his posting style, but his posting was similar in a just completed game of ours and he was town. So he's not a town-read, maybe null.

Boo and dragon aren't really making me town-read them, there doesn't seem to be a huge connection to the game. Boo's been pretty flexible with her thoughts, which is a plus, but I'd also like something concrete from them. @boo, readslist?

Plum is a scum-read. It's mostly gut, sure, but she's kind of got the boo problem of being really flexible/not committing to a hard read (see the pot shots on me that weren't really backed up by anything) without the occasional flashes of towniness I'm getting from boo.

Hydra is a blank for me, right now. I'd like to see more content.

That leaves ika: can you talk to me about your read on him, tere?

Hope that helps, please follow anything up with me!

p-edit, lots happened while typing, will follow up in a bit.

Great, that's really helpful!

FWIW, what I think Cho is arguing is that having a possibility of a BP (rather than they are definitely in the setup) means a SK is very unlikely (the BP role was a random pick from a pool after some roles were already set up, does that make sense?), and that their role didn't kill N1 suggests they are not a strongman (which is fair, since Yukari was pretty damn clear he was vigging Mollie) - a strongarm is a role that ignores blocks and protects and so on, very simply.

Have another look at Cho's argument - I am pretty sure she is saying that.

@ika: I am having a facepalm because the ika read I thought was in this game, er isn't, when I read my ISO, it's elsewhere. Thanks for picking that up.

OK, so.

Basically I can read ika really strongly - call it a soul read if you will.

Scum ika hates being scum and is a lurky disengaged fucksack. I've seen it several times off site. The best quick meta here is either Drawn on Arrival or Uncouth Mafia (Uncouth is the quickest, it's a PR game and his PR was something about blue or the sea or something, but the tone is clear).

Town ika needs energy and to bounce off people and gets most of his reads by doing that. He need energy and oxygen. If you need to sort ika more, poke him with lots of questions! Get a conversation going! He thrives on that and I am sure would appreciate an opportunity to sort you too - in fact if you can engage with him it would be great, because ika usually synchs with mollie and me and mollie is having a moment and he knows I am town reading him so a person to poke him with sticks would be really good.

(I think zzthing works in a similar way too, although I don't know him as well - certainly his poking back to you I see as positive. Try and actively sort both those guys - it will help you sort them and help me read you).

Mollie is town but I appreciate not in a great headspace to read. I'd love your input with Boo and Dragon, you see where they are on my readslist. I'd love it if you hard read Hydra. I agree with you re Plum, clearly.

Starter for 10?

[Bellaphant]

Right, that makes sense. And thanks for clarifying about the strongarm (do I bleed thick, or just new? )

What I'm missing is what happened if FroggieMol is town, and Yuk/Cho is the vig, and they shot her, what went wrong. But I'm terrible at set-ups.

I'm gonna iso DS and Boo again, but I struggled for content with Hydra. I'll have another look, though.

@Zzthing and ika: who are your strongest reads? Who are you having trouble sorting? Also, I'd love it if you two and maybe mollie chucked some questions my way. Tere says you are engagement players, and that makes sense with ika's frustration earlier.

@ika, what am I missing about the set-up/is set-up spec really unhelpful? Why were you asking about fruit? What's your read on me? I kinda have a terrible scum-read on you: why am I wrong?

@tere, gun to head what's your read on me?
Not sure who the starter for ten is for, but those are mine!

[Bookitty]

My Fun and Fabulous Reads List, or What I Did This Summer:

Town:

Frogging Mollie. I have had moments of doubt, but in the end I still feel really certain that Mollie is town. Froggie is too.

Ika. Going to buck the trend here; I know he was pushing suspicion of me earlier but I truly believe he's town. I don't care if that makes everyone in that neighbourhood town.

Grib. My townread isn't so strong as everyone else's apparently, but I am still confident in Grib town.

Dragonspawn. I had a townread on Singer and nothing Dragon has done has reduced that for me.

Tere. This one is weak, but I just feel like she wouldn't be this proactive as scum. I've been burned on that before, but I townlean on Tere just the same and I am beginning to trust her.

Kinda Meh:

Plum. She started strong and I could follow her logic. Now I feel like she's completely disconnected. I don't know that this makes her scum, because I feel much the same way; however, this makes me think I might be projecting on her and making excuses for it. So I don't know.

ZZZX. I would love to just chalk him up to a policy lynch because I've been burned badly by his inattentiveness. I don't want to let him get to LYLO unless he steps up his game a LOT. A LOT.

Bellaphant. I'm not seeing a lot of firm reads from her, which is odd because she's asking me for something concrete while providing a lot of amorphous reads. I'm not really town-reading this slot either.

Scum to me:

Hydrangea is a problem for me because I feel like she's skating under the radar and not tracking with the game very well. I see this more from scum than town but I don't have meta for Hydrangea so this is a scumread that might change with more relevant content.

Cho is reading weird to me if they are who they are being claimed to be. There's no reach out, there's no humour, it's just flat and feels almost angry. I didn't like Yukari so it makes me nervous that Cho replaced into a scum slot and isn't happy about it.

Stupid question: Who is the hydra that can't be read? I don't know who you mean about that.

[Tere]

@Bella I wasn't sure on you initially because you were being very quiet so you were in the pile of scumlords I need to sort. But I saw the reach out and that gave me town vibes. The game state hasn't been great with all the 1 v 1s etc. You feel town right now, I will carry on poking you but my gut read following the reach out is town. I can't talk about why but I know you know why.

The way I see what happened.

Scenario 1: Cho / Yukari got roleblocked

Scenario 2: There is the opportunity of a limited shot doc. They had a townread on mollie so protected her.

Scenario 3: Mollie is the BP scum from the set up pool.

I am discounting scenario 3 because I have a very strong townread on Mollie. Mollie hates scum and she will try because she is a team player but I find it almost impossible to think she would aggro tunnel on MS as scum, particularly not with pie backing them up. I can't see a world where scum Mollie did this. She's not that aggro. I think elu posted a game where she did tunnel on someone but it was later game and not necessarily a popular player, not straight out the gate on a player who will tunnel on people on his wagon. I just can't buy her Day 1 activity as scum. That plus lots of other tells (I've played mafia with mollie on and off for 5 years) make me think if she is scum GG. I just don't buy it.

I don't want to spec on scenario 2 that much but it's one of the other. I am not the doc but if I were in the end of Day scenario I would have protected the mollie slot, so I don't think it's out of the question that someone did that. But I don't want anyone to out over that so whatever really.

There's also the scum roleblock possibility which could also be true. Yukari posted all his messages received in the thread I think, with no explicit block message. But MS standard I think is that people don't receive block messages so a block is possible.

[Tere]

Boo, if that's me. sorry. Everyone has been calling hydrangea hydra so it might be that. which post are you talking about?

Can you talk to me more about your Cho read? Everything there looks OK and a little lost town but I'd love it if you could push a little bit more. I need some old timer reads on Plum if I can get them <3

[Frogging Mollie]

Mollie elu already crumbed my role to ika and he saw it, I have been avoiding but I can claim if it will help?

you do what you think is best.

my concern is you are the 1 who is speaking out the most against resolving chokari/us, my question to you is how do you think entering d3 with both of us alive and you possibly dead will look like if plum flips town?

I am not sold on plum town or scum. I am not going to lie, she is giving me the same vibes that ap gave when he was caught scum on d2 but it is based solely on her reads and votes and I need more info from her as opposed to ap who was caught out by an op indie and just gave up in lost rooms. plum's play reminds me of a discussion another player and I had a while ago; what do you do as scum when the argument some1 is presenting is actually legit? cos she isn't exactly shouting down your points in a way that makes me think town. she is handwaving them away and saying, "well, you are going to think this no matter what i say" when I really want to hear what she has to say about her reads and votes.

when I joined this site I was very much a "head before the ass person" however that didn't seem to work out in this particular format, cos scum wld nk the town leaders first and then the game wld be left with the players who mostly did not know what they were doing and then win. I shifted to what dgb taught me which was to take out the weak link in a chain and let the rest of the scum team tumble. and it took me a while to really appreciate this approach but i will be damn it worked better than what I was doing at the time.

what gives me pause tho about rallying around your scum!plum is that i don't know her approach and I am not getting much from her responses...all game. what makes me think "hell yeah, scum!plum for victory" is that most of what she says seems to fit the narrative and gamestate at the time that she gives it and I am missing the organic progression of how she is mapping out the game. it looks a bit contrived but I am not sold and I wonder who her partners are and what her endgame looked like when she made the choices that she made.

[Bookitty]

Can you talk to me more about your Cho read?

I <3 Marquis a lot. If this is actually Marquis I would think that I would get at least acknowledgement that I was in the game. That hasn't happened; the tone has been off from what I expect and the degree of irritation (especially given Yukari's play) seems overblown.

I haven't ever played with Plum before, so I can't be more help there.