Inorganic Chemistry [GAME OVER, SCUM WIN]

[mastin2]

Whatever. That backfired. I'm the one who gave you that invention. I figured the fact that I claimed to receive the third invention, the unknown one, and targeted you with it, should have made it clear to you, who I'm certain is town, that I was the inventor, and thus you'd know to not counterclaim me. I didn't properly predict your reaction. I can tell what the invention is if you'd like more proof, but I don't really want to unless I have to.

Titus, Cerb, you're both idiots.

Guess that makes the decision on who the commute inventor's going to target easy, though. (On the bright side, Cerb is someone I sincerely doubt the commute inventor would have thought to target, thus, meaning that without claiming, Cerb was at risk of death anyway. On the negative side, by ensuring the survival of the third inventor, the commute inventor is sacrificing their ability to realistically stop a nightkill. The only way they could is if they went "Hero-doc" on the town, wifomed the scum, and correctly predicted the scum's nightkill target, but that is a

hilariously

bad idea.)

[mastin2]

aristophanes was mac

And I was wrong on him. But being wrong does not make me scum. If it did, then you'd be scum for how hard BOTH heads of yours pushed hiplop, when hiplop was hilariously obviously town. Obviously, you know that you're town. Therefore you know that being wrong on a read you're certain of is not by itself indicative of alignment. (No, being wrong about a player being town is not worse than being wrong about a player being scum. Being wrong about an alignment is being wrong about an alignment. See also the below.) You have to look at the reason

why

, the WAY the wrongness was, to find the driving motivation that lead to the incorrect conclusion, and it's by that metric you can tell.

Basic mafia 101 here.

TSO got the Cop, debated whether to hit Wicked or Flubber, happily hit Wicked. Town.

UNVOTE: Wickedestjr.

TSO's town.

If TSO were scum, he'd never claim the cop. Why? Because with the cop inventor dead, there'd be nobody in the game who would know he was the one who got it. Therefore, there would be no obligation to claim the result, as in prior days. "But why not claim the result for the towncred?"

Simple, really. Because the plan, as it was yesterday, was to

lynch the last recipient of the cop invention

. I.e., TSO. By claiming it, he's painting a big giant red flag over his head screaming, "LYNCH ME!" Now I admittedly haven't seen TSO's scumgame in a while, but I'm pretty sure he's not the type to pull such a gambit where he deliberately puts himself at risk of being lynched, JUST for the sake of MAYBE getting towncred. Risk-reward benefit along with what I'm presuming is a massive ego as scum (TSO's free to correct me if I'm wrong) would both pressure him into being the type to value his life such that he wouldn't carelessly throw caution to the wind and be so reckless as to do that.

Even if I'm wrong. Even IF TSO is scum, who thought that was worth it. He'd never dare to claim an innocent on his own partner. Heck, claiming an innocent outside the chain is itself a large gambit if he's scum, but on a partner? I just don't see it. It's like an Inu-Yasha 3-x Innocent Child ploy in scope. Yeah, that's probably not the best example given that it actually, well, worked, but it VERY easily could have backfired...and almost did. Twice, if I recall. Maybe more times than that! It relied on everything going right (it did), on town acting exactly as they needed to (they almost didn't), and so on and so forth. Basically, it was an incredibly-high risk for something that produced a decent reward, but which I don't see any sane scum player realistically considering trying to repeat.

Thus, by proxy, Wicked is town too.

I'm...not really sure where I want to vote, now, though. Like, my ika and vezok suspicions are

there

, but they were in a whole 'nother league compared to Wicked. And with Wicked town, that means there needs to be at least one scum on the Aristophanes wagon (because, I repeat, LC is town), and I haven't the slightest clue who it'd be. (I mean, there are certain people I think it wouldn't be, but not really people I think it would be. )

I'll need to do more analysis after I get caught up.

[mastin2]

So, Flubber is town, i'm town, Sonic is town. Flum/Constantine is town. Those are the current assumptions I have in looking at this.
So in the pool of TSO, Kari/PV, Nacho, Jaqen, i expect 1 scum.

I'm pretty sure we can eliminate TSO. I thought that both wagons at the end of the day were on town (thus Kari was town), but Aristophanes flipped scum so take that townread on Kari with a grain of salt. Nacho's slot has been pretty town, and while I admit that he himself isn't as town as he could be (in particular, were he to bus, this is exactly the way I would see him doing it), frankly if he were scum I'd expect to be dead by now in a similar vein to why I'd expect to be dead if LC were scum.

When it comes to Jaqen, there's a bit of a divide. On the one hand, this sort of bus is the kind of thing Jaqen can, has, and will pull off if the need arises to keep towncred: with reads getting progressively worse and worse, and showing up via flips/conftown as being such, Jaqen will gain a worse and worse rap, arising suspicion regardless of how town Jaqen's individual posting may be. (See also, YCBAIII.) On the other hand, if he were scum, I wouldn't expect him to have actually

hammered

. See also, the townread I had on Egg in Team Mafia for that same reason (there was no need to hammer), combined with the previously-mentioned YCBAIII where his unvote of a scumbuddy helped ensure a no-lynch.

One of them basically HAS to be scum, but I'm not sure which. REALLY not sure which. Like, I'm trying to compile a most-likely to least-likely list in my head, between the three of KaragineV/Nacho/Jaqen, but the order keeps changing. Kari/PV as most, then Nacho as most, Jaqen as most, Kari as least, Nacho as least, the order is changing by the second. And I really can't figure it out right now. I REALLY don't think LC is scum (the only way that all three of them could be town), and I'm basically clearing TSO, but I'm just not seeing which of them it is.

...Regardless, though.
You're probably right about one thing.
There's not gonna be TWO scum among them.
So by default, that means both of vezok and ika are scum, thus, I can vote either of them.

VOTE: vezokpiraka.
Easily could switch to ika, though!

[mastin2]

No, it's because the people i feel who are most likely to be scum on the aristophanes wagon are yourself and Nacho, so I feel there's a good chance that you're scum there, combined with the added bonus of chain confirmation stuff.

Like I said about TSO, preeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetty dang sure he's town.

When it comes to Nacho, you have my permission to lynch his ass if I die, but not a moment before then. I'm fairly confident that if Nacho's scum, he'll show his hand.

My vote on the Aristophanes wagon was exactly the sort of play I wouldn't make as scum - it contributed to the death of an important scum role and it gained me no towncred. Look to the Kari wagon for scum.

The further you are from the start of the Aristo wagon, the more likely you are to be scum on it. Flubber would be borderline confirmed town if he hadn't flipped, I am town, and Kari is also borderline confirmed town.

:goodposting:

Let's lynch cerb. This shit is unbelievable. He bullshit claims he got the third invention and is counterclaimed immediately by titus. Then somehow the weak cop goes to TSO who mysteriously investigates some other than cerb. And our weak cop dies. I wonder why I wanted cerb dead earlier. Seeing how both him and TSO were on the Aristo wagon I have the feeling scum already know all the inventors and don't really need the role cop anymore.

vote cerb

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaah, vezok's scum, here.

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Vezokpiraka

[mastin2]

Are we ready for massclaim?

And out the commute inventor, the only thing keeping the third inventor alive at this point?

AND after we JUST lynched the SCUM EFFECTIVELY-ROLECOP?

HECK no.

Wait until the commute inventor has died, and/or until we're a day from lylo before that, at the earliest.

Make the scum guess at who the commute inventor is. As long as the commute inventor lives, so too does Cerb, and thus, so too does the third invention get sent out. If scum fear the third invention, they either have to risk that the commute-inventor is gambiting elsewhere and lose their nightkill if they're wrong (which assuming any level of competency from the commute inventor, they will be), OR they have to kill the commute inventor FIRST to eliminate the third invention.

Speeding up the process is literally the LAST thing we should be doing.

sthar, gamebreaking is your thing. What on EARTH is going through your head that could make you think that now of all times could POSSIBLY be a good time to massclaim?

[mastin2]

I strongly agree with Sonic on Mastina being scum here, but for different reasons.

Titus.

Given your other stances in the game.

Compared to your read on me.

You are an absolute

idiot

.

I could say more to explain why, but that'd make ME the idiot instead.

I'm town. And when you realize why, you're going to facepalm epically for not realizing sooner.

We lost an inventor. That's great...

I miss Flum.

(I mean, yeah, the scumread on me was annoying, butstill...I miss Flum all the same.)

Probably a near-guarantee that the commute-invent given to Constantine was given when Constantine was still Shakira, with the commute inventor simply not changing the target after the replace for whatever various reason. (Because, let's be honest, no offense meant to you, Constantine, but conftown be damned, you're not an appetizing kill target. Shakira Confirmed was. You, not so much, so it was a mistake to give the commute there.)

Vote: Cerberus

What on earth was that reaction to being counterclaimed?

Know what?

I decided.

Not on who the scum is. Still not quite certain on that. It could be Nacho, it could be KaragineV. In theory it could even be both unlikely as that may be. But while there's reason that Nacho could be scum, and reason that PV could be scum, regardless of Jaqen's content, I just don't think he's nearly as likely to be scum, so I've decided on who the scum isn't. (Well, mostly. Not entirely committing to the read, yet, but...basically, Jaqen is firmly in the least-likely spot now as far as chances between the three being scum go.)

...Then again...

VOTE: Cerberus

...But at least his

looks

legitimate.

^ I don't like that reaction.

For the record, neither do I. (This is where I would normally insert a disclaimer about, "I'm agreeing with Wicked, he must be scum", buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut...... )

Actually, never mind, Aristophanes voted Kari instantly and Kari didn't vote back.

Actually, that'd be a point against Kari, not in favor of her, because unless she is ALSO a scum PR (in which case, lol), Aristophanes the scum PR voting for Kari makes sense to survive, and Kari not voting Aristophanes makes sense if Kari is a Goon being less valuable than him.

Doesn't necessarily mean she's scum (she

did

end up on the wagon, after all, a point in her favor), but certainly doesn't make her town.

[mastin2]

Can we lynch mastina

You'd be better off trying to lynch Cerb.

Gladiate Cerebus

Jaqen, I swear to god, this better be a gambit.

Because if you seriously just gladiated our third inventor.

I'd consider lynching you on policy alone, townread and hatred of policy lynches be damned.
THAT anti-town an action. Dead serious.

I really, REALLY need to write an MD thread about hero-vigging (AKA, zero-vigging), which gladiate is generally considered a variant of...FOR GOOD REASON. You are never the 5%. (Hint: 5% isn't rate of failure.)

[Jaqen Hghar]

VOTE: Lying Cat

I repeat: if Lying Cat were scum, I would be dead by now.

Because there's no possile way that one is tricking you with WIFOM, or if you prefer Occam, that you're scum together...

[mastin2]

Lynching him for the sole purpose of determining my alignment is even more horrible because it's possible for him to be scum telling the truth about his result.

Also, probably a bad idea to point this out, but with the commute inventor otherwise obliged (protecting Cerb), lynching TSO to conftown Wicked means scum can just lynch TSO, kill Wicked, essentially identical to if we had just lynched a mason to confirm a masonry exists, with scum killing the now-conftown-for-100% mason.

(Btw, basically agreeing with all of Wicked's posting at this point. Why the hell wasn't he this good

before

he was conftown? Woulda saved BUNDLE-loads of trouble.)

I don't see why another lurkfuck does nothing but kind of bus another lurkfuck partner.

When the lurkfuck busser is a PR compared to the other lurkfuck likely not being one?

This feels like white knighting a town player as scum by using thinly-stretched logic.

[Cerberus v666]

Mastin, I agree that I'm an idiot. Titus isn't an idiot, just a bit hasty perhaps.

Hmm. Your point about TSO is reasonable. It would be bad play to do as he did if he were scum. Absolutely no reason to claim he received it, except to fake clear a teammate...but that would draw the attention of everyone to himself, and out both himself and his teammate. Alright, sound argument. TSO is town, therefore wicked is town(at least, as town as everyone else who has been investigated.

So...putting together all your assumptions, Mastin, we have this

Sonic Boom -Town by investigation
Wickedestjr - Town by investigation
St Constantine the Hermit- Town by investigation
Cerberus v666 - Town by the assumption that all inventors are town
T S O -Town because his claim doesn't make sense for scum

Not lynch candidates today.
-------------------------------------------------------

Nachomamma8 - Early on Ari wagon, hopped off when it gained steam, rejoined to put it at L-1
ika - Scummy by meta, and pretty useless and lurky, didn't vote.
Jaqen Hghar - Pushed kari over ari fairly hard, but hammered Ari.
Lying Cat - Voted Kari
mastin2 - Voted Wicked, who is now town based on her own logic. :p
PeregrineV - Slot was lurky, bit better now that PV has taken over, was voting for the counterwagon to his own lynch.
vezokpiraka - Refused to vote ari because Cerb was voting him.

With 3 scum in that group. I should really have more thoughts on LC from just yesterday, but meh. I clearly need to reread a lot of things.

[Cerberus v666]

Hey Mastin, I like when you're actually playing the game. You should keep doing that.

[Jaqen Hghar]

Mastin, I agree that I'm an idiot. Titus isn't an idiot, just a bit hasty perhaps.

Hmm. Your point about TSO is reasonable. It would be bad play to do as he did if he were scum. Absolutely no reason to claim he received it, except to fake clear a teammate...but that would draw the attention of everyone to himself, and out both himself and his teammate. Alright, sound argument. TSO is town, therefore wicked is town(at least, as town as everyone else who has been investigated.

So...putting together all your assumptions, Mastin, we have this

Sonic Boom -Town by investigation
Wickedestjr - Town by investigation
St Constantine the Hermit- Town by investigation
Cerberus v666 - Town by the assumption that all inventors are town
T S O -Town because his claim doesn't make sense for scum

Not lynch candidates today.
-------------------------------------------------------

Nachomamma8 - Early on Ari wagon, hopped off when it gained steam, rejoined to put it at L-1
ika - Scummy by meta, and pretty useless and lurky, didn't vote.
Jaqen Hghar - Pushed kari over ari fairly hard, but hammered Ari.
Lying Cat - Voted Kari
mastin2 - Voted Wicked, who is now town based on her own logic. :p
PeregrineV - Slot was lurky, bit better now that PV has taken over, was voting for the counterwagon to his own lynch.
vezokpiraka - Refused to vote ari because Cerb was voting him.

With 3 scum in that group. I should really have more thoughts on LC from just yesterday, but meh. I clearly need to reread a lot of things.

Dont misrep that shit. A man is very clear in saying he isnt caring for either Kari or Ari and is lynching either. Voting =/= pushing. If a man is pushing anything yesterday its LC.

[mastin2]

Well. That looks pretty fucking town now then.

'Course it is. I said the commute inventor was town.

That being said, after Flum left the slot, Sonic Boom was probably the better commute target. Wouldn't have actually stopped the nightkill (because, well, duh, that'd require the commute inventor to have a townread on Flubb which basically nobody did), but OBJECTIVELY speaking,

probably

had a higher chance of protecting against the nightkill. (The info of knowing the third invention < the strength of the player in the slot. SC+knowing third invention > SB, but Constantine+knowing third invention < SB*.)

*Just for the record, it'd be a difficult call to make, but overall, disregarding the knowledge of the third invention and going purely off of player strength, I'd probably rate the two conftown as SB > SC, but only slightly so.

I don't feel that one dead town for one conftown is a particularly great trade-off for us.

(Particularly given that TSO is a competent player, very likely to be town, and that the conftown could then immediately be killed off thanks to a lack of protection.)

And also why on earth are you looking for scum on the Aristo wagon...?

Because it's basically impossible for there not to be at least one on there? (And even if it wasn't...well, when was the last time an all-town wagon formed on scum? It's no mean feat, especially with a viable counterwagon. It's often scum bussing that condemns the lynched scum player, not solid town play. So aside from the players making it nearly impossible, by sheer statistical probabilities, it'd be incredibly improbable.)

[Cerberus v666]

Mastin, I agree that I'm an idiot. Titus isn't an idiot, just a bit hasty perhaps.

Hmm. Your point about TSO is reasonable. It would be bad play to do as he did if he were scum. Absolutely no reason to claim he received it, except to fake clear a teammate...but that would draw the attention of everyone to himself, and out both himself and his teammate. Alright, sound argument. TSO is town, therefore wicked is town(at least, as town as everyone else who has been investigated.

So...putting together all your assumptions, Mastin, we have this

Sonic Boom -Town by investigation
Wickedestjr - Town by investigation
St Constantine the Hermit- Town by investigation
Cerberus v666 - Town by the assumption that all inventors are town
T S O -Town because his claim doesn't make sense for scum

Not lynch candidates today.
-------------------------------------------------------

Nachomamma8 - Early on Ari wagon, hopped off when it gained steam, rejoined to put it at L-1
ika - Scummy by meta, and pretty useless and lurky, didn't vote.
Jaqen Hghar - Pushed kari over ari fairly hard, but hammered Ari.
Lying Cat - Voted Kari
mastin2 - Voted Wicked, who is now town based on her own logic. :p
PeregrineV - Slot was lurky, bit better now that PV has taken over, was voting for the counterwagon to his own lynch.
vezokpiraka - Refused to vote ari because Cerb was voting him.

With 3 scum in that group. I should really have more thoughts on LC from just yesterday, but meh. I clearly need to reread a lot of things.

Dont misrep that shit. A man is very clear in saying he isnt caring for either Kari or Ari and is lynching either. Voting =/= pushing. If a man is pushing anything yesterday its LC.

Hmm. Perhaps I misremembered then? Sorry if that was the case. I do know that you were pushing LC more than anyone else though, that's definitely the case. Sorry.

[Cerberus v666]

Oh, and for me to be town via the assumption that inventors are town, you have to also assume I'm not lying about my claim.

[mastin2]

the pseudo-investigative inventor has been outed.

But won't die so long as the commute inventor lives.

Which will be...for a much, much shorter time if massclaim goes through.

Sure, yeah, if the commuter was among a name likely to be scum like, say, vezok or ika, then them claiming would be good, but given that's basically without a doubt not the case? Not worth it.

Cerberus v666 - 3 (vezokpiraka, Nachomamma8, Jaqen Hghar)

There pretty much

has

to be a scum in there.

Jaqen, I'd move to mastin maybe.

...

VOTE: Nachomamma8.

[mastin2]

Why are votes on mastin terrrible?

Because, quite obviously, they are?

Why is Mastin STILL a townread in spite of generating no content or analysis after the first day?

Oi! I've been giving PLENTY of content. I didn't give much for half of D1, and half of today, maybe during some other points of the game too, but I'm gonna steal a line from Plotinus:
Life suck is not indicative of alignment.

(...And then modify it to say, "...Unless it's an indication of being town." )

^more excuses to Backburner the game.

Yes. Aaaaand?

Organic Chemistry called.
It wants its Mastin the PROTECTIVE PR INVENTOR lynch back. (Hey, guess what the main point used against me that game was? Guess what the main point against me in every. damn. game. more or less has been? Oh, no. Not being wrong. Heavens no. People have wised up to that by now and stopped expecting me to be a scumhunting god. Know what the main accusation against me is? Near-100% of the time, overwhelmingly, across many games most if not all of which I'm town in? Lurking in some form or another. Organic Chemistry, cause of my lynch. Signs and Void, an incredibly-frustrating moment. Those are just two off the top of my head. There are BUNDLE-loads more. Lurking != scum for me. It's not exactly much of a towntell since I DO lurk as scum, but it's certainly not a scumtell. I, very frequently, place one game if not multiple games on the backburner, off of my motivation and time commitments. Because, yes, I'm not neurologically normal. I get depressed. I get manic. When I'm manic I might hyper-focus on one game. When I'm depressed I might neglect one game in particular. It happens. But it is never. NEVER. an indication of my alignment. It is, always. Always. ALWAYS. Because of me. It's a health-indicator tell. A mental-state tell. A tell about how I am doing in real life. NOT a tell about my alignment.)

[Cerberus v666]

No, votes on you are only terrible as of this moment, because you are being useful. A vote on you before you started actually talking was no worse than a vote on kari or ika(barring the meta tell of ika, which I don't really care about).


Anyways, carry on.

[mastin2]

I'm suprised mafia was able to hit all the inventors

They haven't yet, but if CERTAIN people got their way, they would. (AKA, if the commute inventor was made public.)

Vote: mastin2

This+the push on Cerb beforehand = Nacho is pushing a scum agenda during the day. There are bundleloads of conftown in the game. The scum literally can't kill all of them. Their only hope at winning is to lynch a player that is conftown.

And this looks like Nacho doing EXACTLY that.

[Lying Cat]

sthar, gamebreaking is your thing. What on EARTH is going through your head that could make you think that now of all times could POSSIBLY be a good time to massclaim?

I'm tired of being the only one in thread who understands where the game balance is at. I'm spending all my time fighting TOWNIES over obvious things. I'm enjoying the showboating, but I'm having to do things here that make me really uncomfortable.

Like, Jingle's plan is actually working and I think scum are gonna autolose this on PoE. And I'm STILL having to fight over when you can reasonably confirm someone, because pieces of this town are more concerned with furious masturbation than playing the game.

Maybe if I had a SINGLE productive ally among the sixish people in this thread who should know I'm town, maybe if I weren't the only person putting any work into maintaining the information advantage?

I am concerned with two things right now. Making the lynch pool as small as possible, and maximizing the utility of cerb's invention.

I think the glut of vital nightkills outweighs the danger of losing the doctor, but I'll keep it in my pants for now.

I'm not willing to lynch Nacho without a PV flip.

[mastin2]

mastin2 - 3 (Sonic Boom, Wickedestjr, Nachomamma8)

And again, to reiterate, Nacho is scum.

[mastin2]

Hey Mastin, I like when you're actually playing the game. You should keep doing that.

Oh, hey. That reminds me of another game I was inactive and did nothing as town basically the entire game: We Didn't Playtest This. Admittedly, my record in a hydra is VERY much provably worse than my record soloing (I even flaked out of Ikaruga I think it was called, modded by Bulbazak with Antihero as my partner), so a game where I was in a three-headed hydra is understandably going to be much worse than normal, butstill goes to show my point stands. I go inactive as town. It's not the best thing. It sucks. For me more than anyone else, even though it's very much an annoying thing for the town to put up with. But it's (usually) not permanent, I (usually) get out of it, and that's why I (generally) don't consider it actually worth replacing out even though I (sometimes) ponder the possibility. My alignment regardless, it drags my team down, but there's nothing I can do about it except fight to get out of it, which I (usually) succeed at. I'd get rid of it if I could, but obviously, this is not something I willingly enter into, so it's not exactly something I can consciously discard. (There's a reason that I stressed in my Academy lecture to Ank that I myself suffer from the problem, so I'm not the best one suited to combating it.) Basically, my options are to not play at all, or play even though there's the risk of it, and (generally) people seem to find it (overall) worth the pain when it does happen for me to play. (If they didn't, I wouldn't get so many invites to play games. But I get plenty, including for this game.)

Because there's no possile way that one is tricking you with WIFOM, or if you prefer Occam, that you're scum together...

Pretty much, yeah!

[T S O]

Mastin, my dear, seeing you post is so pleasurable for me.

[T S O]

Not sure if I told Anti, V/LA from last Wed to this Wed.