↑ Mathilda wrote:
Any particular reasons why or are you just going to cast suspicion on one slot? I can see why you'd be suspicious of Honest. He didn't say much. He didn't justify himself. He basically floundered. But I have been trying to actively hunt scum. I'm not just trying to appear to hunt scum.
I want to see you flip first because I think that, on aggregate, your slot is more suspicious than Necargo's. Were you looking for reasons why I found you suspicious beyond just replacing Honest? Those are in the next post that you yourself quoted.
↑ Mathilda wrote:↑ Dierfire wrote:@Mathilda
I find your stated justification for suspecting Yuriko (because she has been light on content) to be troubling coming from your slot. Your 205 sounded less confident than you do now, and your posts between have primarily concerned arguing against a proposal for a policy lynch that actually didn't get much traction. What has caused the change in your read? Also, what is the basis of your reads on Necargo and Draynth?
You say it is troubling but don't say why. This could be seen as a way of making someone seem suspicious by colouring other people's opinions without giving any particular justification.
Perhaps the progression was unclear here. It is suspicious for you to claim to suspect Yuriko based on a lack of content because Honest was also light on content (as you acknowledge). If you received a PM saying that you are Town, then you'd know that Honest's posting came from Town, and you'd know better than to center your suspicion on a simple lack of content. The rest of 219 is vague, so I'm assuming that you didn't have anything more specific or convincing to say.
It's natural to start off sceptical, to then gather more evidence over time and start to form a more concrete opinion. That happens when you gather evidence. I do not see why it is troubling to suspect someone because they are light on content. Honest may have been light on content but I have not. Yuriko has been light on content but now she's posted #229 where she has actually put out a read list and put forward conjectures that we can evaluate, so that helps swing her a little more townwards.
I don't have any confidence in any of my reads. I'm a scientist in real life and I prefer to be more sure of my conclusions. It's also a profession where you have to constantly question yourself. I have seen people perform McCarthy style witch hunts in this game. Someone does something that could be construed as slightly scummy, another player then looks for more evidence but without taking into account their own confirmation bias. By the end of the day phase everything that the player does or says is construed as being scummy regardless of whether it contradicts previous accusations, they get lynched and flip town.
These two paragraphs feel off to me. Much of this seems to be fluff to me, and it seems to be used to obscure an answer to the question (why did the read on Yuriko change in the few hours between 205 and 219?) or at least to answer a different question than the one that I asked. I didn't ask why reads might change in general--I asked why your read on Yuriko had changed (grown more confident).
Yes I did instinctively argue against a policy lynch. But if you notice, after thinking through all the reasons why some newbies may quit,ifflowercase is right (and I don't know that he is but he seems sure that the stats show policy lynches of newbie replacements show a slight tendency to hitting scum) then I have only ever argued using this as further evidence for lynching someone. Not as a reason in itself to lynch someone. I have not changed my mind on this. Are you accusing me of fluffing by talking about general game mechanics with regard to policy lynches? If so then my answer to this is that I am concerned that by only considering a subset of slots that we may be ignoring more salient data that can be gleaned from this game.
You are correct--I'm saying that you were arguing against a policy lynch that will not happen when you could have been discussing a lynch that will happen. Even the characterization of Lowercase's proposal as a policy lynch is a little misleading, because his proposal (141) was more specific than just "a lurker" (he mentioned DWL and Zero), but you chose not to address his reasoning for those two players.
As for the basis of my reads on Draynth and Necargo. The general impression that I have is that Draynth is actively scum hunting whereas necargoface is not. Yes, people keep coming back to the whole RV business, but that doesn't mean to say that you can't move the topic on by yourself and start questioning other people.
In the absence of any contradictions or anything overtly scummy, I'm basing my reads on how actively people seem to be scum hunting. Do they look like they are trying to figure it out? Do they look like scum trying to give the appearance of scum hunting by questioning everything and not putting their necks on the line? Can you suggest anything else I could be doing to hunt scum? I would be happy to hear any suggestions that you may have.
I was hoping for more specific things--basing reads on "general impressions" makes it harder to evaluate their authenticity.
