Mini 1701 - Modified Werewolf 13er

[Shinobi]

Vote Count

absta101

(2):

Boonskiies, redFF

Zoronos

(1):

RedCoyote

BlueBloodedToffee

(1):

absta101

Not Voting

(7): Doctor Who, Keyser Söze, Bulbazoor, TonyMontana, Kmd4390, BlueBloodedToffee, Zoronos

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-08-22 14:00:00)

[Kmd4390]

So up until Post 842, I can find twice that Zoro mentioned Ban and that was just to discuss reads.

@HaschelThe downsides of reading in ISO rather than the back and forth.Ego protection demands that I answer 'No, that's not overtly scummy why should I change my stance in light of new information'.My first pass thought is that it looks like just a communications breakdown. Unless his brilliant scum strategy is to never give any specifics on his reads, I don't see overt scum there.I can understand from your chair why you feel it's scummy. Your questions look like reasonable attempts to communicate and Banakai is just failing to respond in expected ways. I'm just not sure irrationality and communications breakdown equates to scum here.He posted a big long thing in about 690 that appeared to be a response to your questions. It's his next post after your back and forth.Do you feel that answer was lacking? (tbh I skimmed it a bit trying to catch back up to the day)

Here, he only discusses Ban because Haschel prodded him to. He acknowledges some points, agrees Ban doesn't look good, but seems to settle on Ban being bad town.

Took me a while to digest that. Basically I understand why you think what you think, but it sounds to me like you're looking for a reason to believe, rather than opinion following information. Which I guess is just a politer way of saying it looks like a tunnel.It makes sense to me that you are scum reading him, based on the interaction the two of you had, but I'm not sure he's actually scum. (Does this make sense? I'm struggling to phrase this properly to communicate the idea. Basically I'm thinking TvT + a dose of conf bias)

This has an appeasing vibe to it. Like he doesn't want to be obvious, but he calls it town vs town so he's not bussing his buddy but doesn't ruffle feathers with Haschel either. It's a safe stance to take.

In 850, he jumps on the TonyMontana counter wagon and doesn't mention Ban again.

Vote Zoro

[Zoronos]

He asked my opinion. I gave it. I thought both were town.
If your entire case is 'he misread a scum and didn't want a town read lynched', well, I'm just going to call your case bad.
RC at least had the courtesy to misrepresent me first.

[Kmd4390]

That's a gross oversimplification. You basically avoided Ban, even when he was being wagoned, except when asked for an opinion by Haschel. When you finally gave an opinion, it came off as appeasing. If it was as simple as what you said, you wouldn't stand out over someone else who townread Ban (off the top of my head I don't know who did)

[Zoronos]

And here I was worried you wouldn't bother misrepresenting me.
That I avoided Ban isn't even close to true and I at no point avoided giving opinions on him. I conjured him into the thread when I felt he was lurking (300 and disagreed with his reasoning in 308). I addressed him again in 625. While I was V/LA (and I was very limited access; I was at gencon for the better part of a week), someone (Haschel I think) asked everyone to include their Ban read in their next post. Being the obliging sort, I did 729. Since he was a major lynch candidate, I focused on him when I was catching up, and updated my read accordingly 810.

Try harder.

[Keyser Söze]

When I'm next online I am going to look at:

- analysis of the D1 counter-wagons
- who was against the Banakai lynch
- the reasons why people voted for Banakai
- update of my town / 'uncomfortable' list
- Vote count analysis
- Post-flip associative connections with Banakai
- Banakai's town/null/scum reads from D1
- D2 lynch pool list

[Bulbazoor]

1. Angel outs. Chance at lynching scum is almost fifty percent. Angel will die regardless and scum can not cc in this scenario because it leaves a confirmed scum.

"fifty percent"?


I will post my full findings/thoughts/reads tomorrow.

I mean think about it. Chance is 40 percent whiich is 2 out of 9.
Which means I made an error. Chance is 22 percent.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Will post later but Zoro looks a pretty good vote.

Also, I don't agree with Who's plan.

[Kmd4390]

Zoro, I acknowledged 300 and 308.

625, Haschel asked you for a read and here's what you said:

Null. Passively suspicious, not my preferred lynch but happy to see more questioning. Just don't have the time to do that questioning myself right now.

This actually goes against your supposed town read on him.

He was also the leading wagon when you said:

I have basically no opinion about Banakai. He doesn't have a ton of content, is a null and I haven't had time to work on sorting him.

This is where we are disagreeing. You say this is you complying with Haschel's request. I say it's you avoiding him except when prompted by Haschel. I mean, neither is technically wrong but I don't see it as a legitimate rebuttal.

810, I did miss. But I'd hardly consider that "focusing" on Ban. It looks more like you commenting on not liking the lead wagons and defending your Tony vote.

[Doctor Who]

Current situation

Day 1: 7 votes required out of 13 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 854
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)
Banakai_____________4______Haschel Cedricson (502), RedCoyote (649), Bulbazoor (702), Boonskiies (710)
Boonskiies__________4______absta101 (422), Banakai (472), Kmd4390 (592), TonyMontana (839)
absta101____________3______redff (790), Keyser Söze (805), Doctor Who (808)
TonyMontana_________2______Zoronos (850), BlueBloodedToffee (854)


Prior happenings

Alright, we still have 5 days but I think 32 pages for D1 is more than enough and nobody seems interested in Tony lurking out the whole of D1 so;

VOTE: Banakai

5 days is cutting it close and you know it. I highly doubt you'll find 7 people who want to lynch me above these other two in that time. I find it scummy how you are trying to create a counter wagon this close to the deadline.

Redff, why the change if vote?

cause i doubt ur getting lynched today tbh

You're right but why would you not want to push your top scum read and at least try?

Why jump ship to a more 'achievable' lynch?

VOTE: Tony

Absta is sticking to his vote, but BBT peeled off onto Tony when he was previously questioning if a Tony wagon was feasible. I'm not sure how less time makes a Tony wagon more feasible. BBT has also voted for Absta, so I'm not sure why he's dragging his feet on switching wagons.

VOTE: Banakai

I'm updating my spreadsheet with the last votes, and wanted to point out how BBT was all "we don't have enough time for another wagon" and then found it in his heart to start a Tony wagon but then came back on to Banakai when called about it.

[Doctor Who]

Alright, Boon is likely-town due to that flip on Banakai.

You and Keyser have both made this statement up to this point.

@absta and @keyser

- what makes you think that Boon is likely town given the Banakai flip? Admittedly, I'm having a hard time reading Boon so I am interested in your thoughts.

[Doctor Who]

The Angel Plan

For (4)

Doctor Who 976
Bulb 977
RedCoyote 981
Zoronos 986

Against (4)

Kmd 985, 996
redFF 992
Keyser 993
BBT 1007

No comment (3)

Boonskiies
Tony
Absta

Waiting to hear from the final three.

I'd also like to point out that if the Angel claims, it reduces the pool of WW for the Seer to look through. It also ensures that the Seer doesn't investigate someone that gets NK'd (since the Seer wouldn't investigate the Angel).

[Doctor Who]

There were four wagons on Day 1 that got to L-2 or higher. Here they are in order.

Wagon 1

Day 1: 7 votes required out of 13 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 168
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)
Doctor Who__________6______Boonskiies (9), BlueBloodedToffee (66), Keyser Söze (72), absta101 (132), Bulbazoor (138), redff (168)
no vote_____________2______

Banakai

, RedCoyote
absta101____________1______Zoronos (102)
BlueBloodedToffee___1______Kmd4390 (144)
Haschel Cedricson___1______Doctor Who (51)
Kmd4390_____________1______TonyMontana (13)
unvote______________1______

Haschel Cedricson

(76)

Wagon 2

Day 1: 7 votes required out of 13 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 564
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)
absta101____________5______Zoronos (102), Kmd4390 (175), Boonskiies (485), redff (531), BlueBloodedToffee (564)
Boonskiies__________3______absta101 (422),

Banakai

(472), TonyMontana (533)
unvote______________2______Bulbazoor (301), Keyser Söze (510)

Banakai

_____________1______

Haschel Cedricson

(502)
Bulbazoor___________1______Doctor Who (169)
no vote_____________1______RedCoyote

Wagon 3

Day 1: 7 votes required out of 13 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 788
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)

Banakai

_____________5______

Haschel Cedricson

(502), RedCoyote (649), Bulbazoor (702), Boonskiies (710), BlueBloodedToffee (788)
Boonskiies__________4______absta101 (422),

Banakai

(472), TonyMontana (533), Kmd4390 (592)
BlueBloodedToffee___2______Doctor Who (650), redFF (681)
absta101____________1______Zoronos (102)
unvote______________1______Keyser Söze (510)

Wagon 4

Day 1: 7 votes required out of 13 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 964
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)

Banakai

_____________7______

Haschel Cedricson

(502), RedCoyote (649), Bulbazoor (702), Boonskiies (710), BlueBloodedToffee (940), absta101 (941),

Banakai

(964)
absta101____________3______redff (790), Keyser Söze (805), Doctor Who (808)
Boonskiies__________2______Kmd4390 (592), TonyMontana (839)
TonyMontana_________1______Zoronos (850)


___

I'll keep my commentary below the wagons, as I intend to add to them and update colors as we learn more (would be nice to color the angel blue).

___

The

first wagon

formed quickly, within hours of when the game started. Banakai indicates his approval in his first post of the game (after the wagon fell apart). Note how Banakai addresses BBT from the scum standpoint, not the town standpoint. I contend there is at least one scum on it, if not two.

I AM HERE

I read things; I have 2 questions for players

Woody: would you care to explain why you are playing so defensive? As a town usually you just have to accept that one of you are gonna die day 1 probbably, and just try and get as much information as possible even when being voted. I believe you are either scum, or at least very bad at being town. Also your name can be abbreviated to WW which can mean werewolf. Confirmed.


BBT: Do you think there would be any motivation in this game for a scum to tunnel on Woody like you are now?


Kind of hard to tell about other players since they are mostly spectating and gathering facts, with the exception of people who have already taken the side of Woody acting scum-like which I agree with.

The

second wagon

, like the first, also had BBT, redff, and Boon. Banakai put a solo vote out there on red ff, before joining the boon wagon. His only other vote day 1 was to self-hammer.

VOTE: red ff ya I know I called him town

VOTE: Boon

I bought idiot town for woody, but I have a hard time believing this slot was simply idiot town twice. Also not much point for me to be on a wagon nobody is helping with. I still suspect red ff.

Boons posts especially look more like scum than idiot town.

I will post more about him in a little bit

Absta was ready to claim, but to BBT's credit he told him the situation was L-2.

Thats L-1 btw, tell me when you want my claim.

It's L-2.

But doesn't that bring attention to yourself? Why would you do that as scum?

The

third wagon

is on scum, with one confirmed town on it. The

fourth wagon

was the lynch, and the first 4 votes are the same, BBT's 5th vote had moved to Tony before going back to Banakai when I called him out on it. Absta and Banakai moved the wagon to a lynch.

I think it's fair to say there are at least two scum on the lynch wagon (Banakai being one of them). The first four votes come off as town since if they were scum they could have peeled off, which makes what BBT did look like he was trying to move to a counter wagon. BBT couldn't vote Boon after saying how he was playing town, so he did what he could in trying starting another bandwagon.

I want to look at the players history next. Had absta shown a willingness to lynch Banakai? Why did Banakai come in all "F" this?

[Doctor Who]

No roleclaims.

The two remaining werewolves should be left in the dark - their reactions and pushes for a miss-lynch are key.

The Night 1 Angel is of no threat to the werewolves now - a werewolf would not counter-claim a town PR either as this would line themselves up for a lynch.

Thus, we should not narrow down the town PR pool for the werewolves. Let's continue scum-hunting.

^Exactly! the night 1 angel is not a threat to the WW now, but by claiming it would make the angel a threat!

The angel neglected to protect HC, but we can almost guarantee the Angel helps the Seer live another night.

[Doctor Who]

Hmmm, Zoronos and BBT were the two that tried to start a counterwagon on Tony when Banakai was getting fitted for a noose.

I need to look into Zoronos more, as others have been.

It seems unlikely that both scum would try to do that to save their scumbuddy though.

VOTE: BBT

[Zoronos]

Zoro, I acknowledged 300 and 308.

625, Haschel asked you for a read and here's what you said:

Null. Passively suspicious, not my preferred lynch but happy to see more questioning. Just don't have the time to do that questioning myself right now.

This actually goes against your supposed town read on him.

He was also the leading wagon when you said:

I have basically no opinion about Banakai. He doesn't have a ton of content, is a null and I haven't had time to work on sorting him.

This is where we are disagreeing. You say this is you complying with Haschel's request. I say it's you avoiding him except when prompted by Haschel. I mean, neither is technically wrong but I don't see it as a legitimate rebuttal.

810, I did miss. But I'd hardly consider that "focusing" on Ban. It looks more like you commenting on not liking the lead wagons and defending your Tony vote.

You're either reaching or just lying at this point to support your supposition. 'neither is technically wrong'. Bullshit. You are wrong; I addressed Banakai multiple times, and now that I've shown that, you're moving the goalposts. You said I avoided him, and I've shown that I did not. You have now redefined 'avoided' to somehow exclude both 'responding when asked for a read' (if I were avoiding, I'd have ignored those questions and claimed something like 'Oh, I was V/LA, sorry that I missed them') and 'Without prompting, gave my updated read' (see: 810).

Your characterization of 810 is also false. I hadn't voted Tony yet at that point, so calling it 'defending my vote on Tony' is a lie. Hard to defend events that hadn't happened yet. The post says 'I'm pretty happy lynching Absta still', which is where my vote was. Which was one vote behind leading wagon at the time, so 'commenting on not liking the lead wagons' is also false. It also expressed I'd rather lynch Boon over Banakai in that post (the other near-lead wagon). So, that's 2 of 3 leading wagons I liked, and one I didn't.

[Doctor Who]

I reread absta's points on Banakai, and I found sufficient merit for the vote.

Further, I recant my Absta is likely scum position. I have him as a mild town read now.

Spoiler: absta on Ban

God damn I had a case written for boon but he just made a case for himself

post it anyway.

Banakai's vote on Boon is quite bad. His case feels like he just made it after I asked him to post it anyway.
-

@Tony

- You give the impression that you think Boon could be anti-town which suggests he isn't a strong scum read to you. Do you have any other scum reads at the moment?

God damn I had a case written for boon but he just made a case for himself

This post makes no sense coming from town and I asked him to post his case anyway to see if he really did make one. Like I said after he posted his case, it looked quite rushed (like he just made it after I asked him to post it).

Also I'm fucking confused who I should be voting.

This quote doesn't make sense considering Banakai just said that Boon played so scummy that he (Banakai) didn't even bother finishing/posting his case on him.

Post #690 is interesting. I don't see why town-Banakai wouldn't just link back to the case he made on Boon earlier. I mean, he told HC that he had already given reasons for why he thought Boon was scum so this new version of the same case just looks like he is trying to make sure he looks town to HC. Not really a strong point, this could easily just be play style or personality but, as town, I definitely wouldn't have posted the same case twice just because someone got mad and told me to.

I'd hardly call my read passionate/determined when haschel basically

forced me to make a case

You already made a case before HC asked you to.

I'm fine with lynching either Boon or Banakai and we only have a few days left to decide. The people on the smaller wagons should migrate at this point.

5 days is cutting it close and you know it. I highly doubt you'll find 7 people who want to lynch me above these other two in that time. I find it scummy how you are trying to create a counter wagon this close to the deadline.

I'm going to join the Banakai wagon unless someone joins the Boon wagon in a few hours.

Just vote Boon or banakai. We don't have much time.

This is fucked, i'll vote banakai if he gets one more vote. I just think Boon is the best lynch out of the two. Also, like Kmd said, Banakai hasn't claimed, if he is a PR or claims PR as scum, what can we do?
Chances are, Boon is scum; most of the town reads i've seen on him are due to him being "too scummy to be scum", we all know that's a terrible reason to call someone town so just lynch it already.

VOTE: Banakai
As promised. He is L-2 now I think.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Alright, couple of things outstanding from D1 before I get into D2;

I grow ever more weary of you BBT.

1) Wall posts that are really hard to break apart. Hey, look at me, I'm doing stuff! I ask questions! I love wagons!
2) Spamming the thread.
3) Being too lazy to look stuff on your own. Demanding others do it for you.
4) Not remembering what you said.
5) Putting your own words into other people's mouths. Repeatedly.

My scumread on you has nothing to do with redFF, but keep on puttting your own scummy spin on things.

1) You're saying wall posts are scummy...wow. Firstly, you're wall posting all over the place. Secondly, wall posting is not scummy, never has been scummy and never will be scummy.
2) I'm not spamming the thread. Even if I was spamming the thread; how is that scummy?
3) What am I demanding people do? Again, how is being lazy (I'm not) alignment indicative?
4) How is this scummy?
5) Where have I done this? (This is the only one that would even come close to being scummy)

Anyone else want to lynch BBT? He's the main reson this game is already 38 pages.

There is a really good chance he's scum, plus he has the most posts in the thread.

LOL. Like, that's all I can say to this post.

1) Not backreading before posting has nothing to do with alignment. You rode Woody long and hard for it.

2) Coming in with a "oops, I didn't know that was an L-1" vote is scummy. You merely stated your displeasure with this.

Your reaction to #2 was no where near your reaction to #1. Had you been playing consistently, you would have been all over redFF like you were with Woody.

I think you are trying to push easy wagons instead of genuinely scum hunting.

Wrong. I kept pushing Woody because I was dissatisfied with his response to my push.

Is there a reason you're ignoring my questions regarding me ignoring the redff vote?

Here, I'll post them again for you;

OK, so why doesn't scum!BBT push Redff's 'obviously bad vote'. That would have been a pretty easy push for me to make, no?

Like, I thought your whole 'BBT is scum for ignoring Redff's awful vote on Woody' was based on Redff being scum. Now it seems you have no explanation other than it was scummy of me to ignore such an obviously bad vote even though you think the vote come from town.

Can you clarify? What are my scum motivations for ignoring the vote?

[Kmd4390]

Zoro, not moving goalposts, just restating what I said initially which was this:

Here, he only discusses Ban because Haschel prodded him to.

I wasn't saying you ignored questions, I was saying you barely discussed him except in response to Haschel which worries me because he was discussed quite a bit late in the day and scum tend to avoid talking to/about scumbuddies a whole lot.

Your characterization of 810 is also false. I hadn't voted Tony yet at that point, so calling it 'defending my vote on Tony' is a lie. Hard to defend events that hadn't happened yet

So "vote" should be "concerns".

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Boon and Redff should explain there Absta votes.

I'm not reading Doctor's walls on this page right now.

[redFF]

i think ive been pretty clear

[BlueBloodedToffee]

You have?

I mean, I understand you were scum reading him D1 but you're just gonna carry that into D2 as if nothing else has happened?

[Zoronos]

Zoro, not moving goalposts, just restating what I said initially which was this:

Here, he only discusses Ban because Haschel prodded him to.

I wasn't saying you ignored questions, I was saying you barely discussed him except in response to Haschel which worries me because he was discussed quite a bit late in the day and scum tend to avoid talking to/about scumbuddies a whole lot.

Your characterization of 810 is also false. I hadn't voted Tony yet at that point, so calling it 'defending my vote on Tony' is a lie. Hard to defend events that hadn't happened yet

So "vote" should be "concerns".

Look at those goalposts, continually moving.
So, addressing him multiple times (twice in the 300's, linked earlier) and again in 810, my first post after coming back from V/LA, which all show that your statement is wrong, don't change your opinion at all?
And after demonstrating that 810 was commentary on half the player base, including all three top wagons, and Tony at the time was not actual vote, it doesn't bother you in the slightest that you misinterpreted or misread everything I wrote at the day end?

[Doctor Who]

Regarding my 928, re-read it with the knowledge that 1-5 are not accusations of scumminess, but rather how you suck the fun out of the game. You are twisting my words (again) into saying this has to do with scumminess.

As for 929, since I think you're scum I'm interested in seeing who else thinks so since it was obvious you weren't getting lynched yesterday. If anyone says they are willing to lynch you and then backs down then it gets interesting.


I didn't ignore your 852, they were addressed in 930 Thanks for yet another false accusation. Let me elaborate on 930 though,

scum pushing for a mislynch would push a lot harder on the townie (me) at L-1, than they would on someone else who didn't even have a single vote on them (redFF)

.

Alright, couple of things outstanding from D1 before I get into D2;

I grow ever more weary of you BBT.

1) Wall posts that are really hard to break apart. Hey, look at me, I'm doing stuff! I ask questions! I love wagons!
2) Spamming the thread.
3) Being too lazy to look stuff on your own. Demanding others do it for you.
4) Not remembering what you said.
5) Putting your own words into other people's mouths. Repeatedly.

My scumread on you has nothing to do with redFF, but keep on puttting your own scummy spin on things.

1) You're saying wall posts are scummy...wow. Firstly, you're wall posting all over the place. Secondly, wall posting is not scummy, never has been scummy and never will be scummy.
2) I'm not spamming the thread. Even if I was spamming the thread; how is that scummy?
3) What am I demanding people do? Again, how is being lazy (I'm not) alignment indicative?
4) How is this scummy?
5) Where have I done this? (This is the only one that would even come close to being scummy)

Anyone else want to lynch BBT? He's the main reson this game is already 38 pages.

There is a really good chance he's scum, plus he has the most posts in the thread.

LOL. Like, that's all I can say to this post.

1) Not backreading before posting has nothing to do with alignment. You rode Woody long and hard for it.

2) Coming in with a "oops, I didn't know that was an L-1" vote is scummy. You merely stated your displeasure with this.

Your reaction to #2 was no where near your reaction to #1. Had you been playing consistently, you would have been all over redFF like you were with Woody.

I think you are trying to push easy wagons instead of genuinely scum hunting.

Wrong. I kept pushing Woody because I was dissatisfied with his response to my push.

Is there a reason you're ignoring my questions regarding me ignoring the redff vote?

Here, I'll post them again for you;

OK, so why doesn't scum!BBT push Redff's 'obviously bad vote'. That would have been a pretty easy push for me to make, no?

Like, I thought your whole 'BBT is scum for ignoring Redff's awful vote on Woody' was based on Redff being scum. Now it seems you have no explanation other than it was scummy of me to ignore such an obviously bad vote even though you think the vote come from town.

Can you clarify? What are my scum motivations for ignoring the vote?

[Zoronos]

Dr. - When I was reading your posts originally, I thought those first five points were intended parts of a scum case. Your post wasn't super clear.