Newbie 1633: The Daily Show-A Retrospective - GAME OVER

[Lowercase]

Seriously? If you could have your fondest lynch-wish come true, who would it be?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I don't see the point of that question.

[Lowercase]

Because sometimes wishes come true. But more importantly I'm actually a little surprised you don't think Grat is scum. He looks pretty damn scummy from where I'm sitting.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Really? He looks pretty damn town from where I'm sitting.

[Lowercase]

Ok buddy, have fun with that.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

In case I die; LC or Draynth should be lynched tomorrow.

[Dwlee99]

@LC - I'm not voting Grat.

@Lee - Because your scum hunting skills are lacking and because you're a hindrance to the town. I advise that you keep up with the game so you can learn how other people scum hunt and then you won't be relying on gut.

I know how to scum hunt. But I don't have a list of stuff I look for. When I see something I can just tell whether it's scummy or not. Just because I don't keep a list of things to look for doesn't mean I'm bad at the game. -_-

[BlueBloodedToffee]

OK, well I tried to get you to explain how you scum hunt and you gave me gut. That was it. Oh and active lurking.

[Gratuitous]

FYI: I will be V/LA from Thurs (8/6) aft to Saturday (8/8) afternoon

Actually, I think I was a smidgeon overly antagonistic in that last post. Nonetheless, I would be happy to entertain your case on Grat. He's basically vanished and I don't really like his yuri or dwlee but not both thing.

Please, continue to doubt-cast me over an announced V/LA.

To answer the Yuri/Dwlee thing: Very simply, those two have been notably the two most scummy players so far in this game in my eyes. However, their play regarding each other has caused me to label them an un-aligned pair (I have serious doubts that the two scum in this set-up would attack each other so hard). Does that mean my reads aren't going change when we get a flip that gives us concrete information, no.

@Lowercase: Are you telling me you have a 80-100% read on someone then? To me, especially on day 1, there's no such thing outside of a N0 cop check or a mechanically provable claim (or you're scum who knows the roles anyway). Given the lack of concrete information, I'm not pretending I know everything, but am instead working with shades of grey.

[Lowercase]

Ok, fair enough.
VOTE: dwlee

[Gratuitous]

My read on Draynth comes from looking at his ISO, and my gut is screaming something is off there.

The exchange at the beginning #17 & #19, is a little off to me where he goes from "I don't have any reason to jump on the wagon without asking questions" and asks a question to ZS, and then without a response in #19 votes anyway after mild urging from BBT, just feels a bit off to me.

Also looking through his ISO, he remained heavily focused on Necargo. That in itself isn't really a tell, albeit such singularity is surprising from one of the SE slots, but reading through, it feels like he resisted commenting on too many other players so far.

Furthermore: it feels like he kinda soft-defended Dwlee in #310

I do realize that. What I'm pointing out is that you clearly are not playing to your win con if you were town

That's not necessarily true. If we decided to lynch you today and you flipped scum, we could get some associate tells.He's trying to hunt scum, I'm not saying I agree with him but if he is town he is playing to his win con IMO

As you can see, there's no real single piece that makes him definitely scum, but together some of these things feel like a cause for concern, which is why I had him as "watching with concern" instead of a scum read

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 1.10

"...a good portion of this country has created an alternate universe..."

Dwlee99

(5): YurikoJasmine, Mathilda, shaddowez, BlueBloodedToffee, Lowercase

YurikoJasmine

(2): Dwlee99, Gratuitous

shaddowez

(1): Draynth

Mathilda

(1): Dierfire

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.


Deadline: August 11, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-08-10 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

A lynch has been achieved!

[/b]
- [/area]

[fferyllt]

Dwlee99 was a

Mafia Goon

.

Night 1 begins now and will end August 12 at Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-08-11 21:00:00)

[fferyllt]

Dierfire died last night. He was a

Town Tracker

.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2.1

Day 2 Begins!

Not Voting

(7): shaddowez, Lowercase, Mathilda, Gratuitous, Draynth, YurikoJasmine, BlueBloodedToffee

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.


Deadline: August 27, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-08-26 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Mathilda]

I have listed the order that the lynch wagons formed. A name in square brackets is an unvote and is removed from the vote count next time that person is listed. Because there have been replacements I have listed future players on the same slot. But once a replacement has been made and a new vote cast, the old player name is no longer used.

Apologies for any mistakes. If you spot any then I can correct the list and re-post it.

Page 1:
BBT: Yuriko
MasonP/dwlee99 : Dierfire
BBT: [Yuriko]
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT
Honest/Mathilda: Draynth
Honest/Mathilda: [Draynth]
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth, MasonP/dwlee99


Page 2:
BBT: Honest/Mathilda
Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous
MasonP/dwlee99 : [Dierfire]
Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire
BBT: Honest/Mathilda, Axwell/Lowercase
Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire, BBT
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, [Draynth], MasonP/dwlee99


Page 3:
Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire, BBT, necargoface/shaddowwez
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: [Yuriko], BBT, MasonP/dwlee99
necargoface/shaddowwez: Yuriko
necargoface/shaddowwez: [Yuriko]


Page 4:
necargoface/shaddowwez: Draynth
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: [BBT], MasonP/dwlee99


Page 5:
Yuriko: BBT

Dwlee replaces MasonP
Lowercase replaces Axwell


Page 6:
dwlee99 : Yuriko


Page7:
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: BBT, [MasonP/dwlee99]
Yuriko: BBT, dwlee99
BBT: Honest/Mathilda, [Axwell/Lowercase]

Gratuitous replaces zerosummer
Mathilda replaces Honest

Honest/Mathilda: [Zerosummer/Gratuitous], Dierfire, BBT, necargoface/shaddowwez
Yuriko: BBT, dwlee99, Gratuitous
BBT: [Honest/Mathilda]
Honest/Mathilda: Dierfire, BBT, [necargoface/shaddowwez]


Page 8:
Gratuitous: BBT, Lowercase


Page10:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT
dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda


Page 11:
shaddowwez replaces necargoface
dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda, shaddowwez


Page 13:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, [BBT], Mathilda, shaddowwez


Page 15:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, [BBT], Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT


Page 16:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, [BBT], Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT, Lowercase

[Mathilda]

Sorry the last two days should have looked like this (I often forget to remove unvotes)

Page 15:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT


Page 16:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT, Lowercase

[Draynth]

Is it likely that Dwlee was bussed day 1 in people's opinions? I've never lynched scum day 1 before so I have no idea

[Draynth]

Because if not it's between myself and Grat

[Lowercase]

If he was bussed it seems like the most likely busser would be shaddowez.

[Lowercase]

Did you ever do that reads list?

[Mathilda]

I find Dierfire a strange choice. You'd think that Yuriko would be assassinated because she was the first to vote for dwlee99 (on page 6) and kept her vote until the end. This makes her the most town and therefore cannot easily be lynched. The only one that voted for dwlee that could be Mafia would be Lowercase if you think that he bussed his partner because he knew that the lynch was inevitable (I'm not accusing Lowercase of being Mafia, just speculating).

Probability then is that one of the remaining Mafia did not vote for dwlee, so why remove one of the potential suspects? Even if the remaining scum voted successfully for dwlee early on, you'd still want to keep the pool of better suspects available for a lynch.

This suggests to me that either the remaining Mafia is a beginner, or they suspected Dierfire of being a power role. I don't remember him hinting at it though.

Can the Mafia PM each other during the day? If not then it makes it less likely to be Yuriko bussing her partner because they would not have had a chance to talk about it. You would want to message your scum buddy before bussing them so they can deliberately implicate as many people as possible.

Or maybe it's a safe tactic do be the first to vote for your scum buddy because if there is no lynch wagon against them then no harm done. If there is a lynch wagon then you don't want to make yourself a target by defending them. And regardless of whether your scum buddy gets lynched or not, one way of determining who the Mafia are is to look at who is not accusing each other. That's a common trap to fall into. (Again, not suspecting Yuriko, just thinking through the possibilities).

[Mathilda]

Or maybe Dierfire was targetted to implicate me after my rant at him for being fixated on me. I was second on the vote list against dwlee (although third person to vote because BBT unvoted and then revoted) so that would make me difficult to accuse. If this is the case then the remaining Mafia is a probably not a beginner and is somewhat Machiavellian.

[Lowercase]

@mathilda:
The most obvious reason for the kill would be that dierfire seemed dangerous to the last scum and was perceived as unlikely to draw protection. I don't think he said anything that would give away his role, unless someone else has info about that.

Based on the newbie game statistics thread (which I could link if you want), scum votes seem to be distributed mostly randomly. The one thing I remember about that is that scum votes are rarely found in the first two slots of a scum wagon, but I would have to look again to verify that result.

Scum don't have day chat in newbie games.

The real cliche with respect to accusations is claiming to be suspicious of your scum buddy but not suspicious enough to vote them.

p-edit: I'm going to go ahead and so no to that last one.

[Mathilda]

Thanks Lowercase, very helpful.