Newbie 1633: The Daily Show-A Retrospective - GAME OVER

[Lowercase]

Is Draynth V/LA or has Fferyllt just not gotten around to prodding him? It seems like a lot of people are waiting on him.

[fferyllt]

Draynth posted earlier today. No one is in prod range at the moment.

Vote count coming in about an hour.

[Lowercase]

Ah, sorry. I missed that.

[shaddowez]

Hey all - this is a prod dodge, and I apologize! I usually have limited access over the weekend, and this weekend was worse than expected. I'll be back tomorrow night.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2.2

Draynth

(3): BlueBloodedToffee, Gratuitous, Mathilda

Gratuitous

(1): shaddowez

Not Voting

(3): Lowercase, Draynth, YurikoJasmine

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.


Deadline: August 27, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-08-26 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[YurikoJasmine]

extend V/LA till tomorrow

But there's nothing much for me to comment on anyway

[Draynth]

If you have any questions / requests it's easiest if you direct them to me now, I'm going to read back through the last few pages to see what I have missed (Working on that reads list now BBT)
Other than that I think the most likely busser is Shadodowez, if Dwlee was bussed, if he wasn't I'm not sure right now. I'm going to have to reread a few things.

[Draynth]

Town

Yuriko
BBT / Mathilda
Lowercase
Grat
Shaddowez

Scum

The order in which the Dwlee wagon formed had a fair influence on this list.

• Yuriko is at the top as she first started the Dwlee wagon. That's about it really, her actual posts give me a slight town lean vibe but it's mostly the wagon thing.
  
• BBT / Mathilda are next because A) They were both on the Dwlee wagon (relatively) early, and B) They are both actively attempting to solve the game in my opinion.
  
• LowerCase is in the middle and is strongly town leaning. I've liked LC's posts (Similar to BBT + Mathilda) and they were also on the lynch wagon.
  
• Next is Grat with a slight scum lean. A big factor in this is that he wasn't on the lynch wagon, other than that there are a number of small things that I've noticed while reading through his ISO that make me feel a tad uneasy, I'll work on a post for this at a later stage, I need to go to bed soon.
  
• Right now my biggest scum read is Shaddowez. Although he was on the lynch wagon, IMO, he could've easily jumped onto the wagon in order to gain town points (He jumped on as the L-2 vote). There is also my big case on Necargo (Shaddowez's predecessor). I'm going to reread a lot of Shaddowez's posts and see if anything in particular sticks out while doing so.

I'm ok with this for now.
VOTE: Shaddowez

[shaddowez]

I've seen a few posts in regards to me possibly being scum due to my place on the wagon, and while I wouldn't normally take the time to defend myself against it, the lack of attention to detail regarding it may aid in cases on those that are down the line.

fferyllt announced me joining the game in 270, my first post was 271, and I voted dwlee in 272. At that point, there were already three people (YurikoJasmine, BlueBloodedToffee, and Mathilda) on the wagon. There was no way for my vote to be earlier on the wagon, as I wasn't in the game at that time. As town I have my vote and like to use it, so upon my read of the game, I put it where I felt it should be, regardless of the vote count (outside of confirming it wasn't going to be a derphammer). I do not, nor cannot, know what my predecessor was thinking, so their vote placement compared to my vote placement should not be a factor on determining whether you think I'm scum or not. If you thought that the slot was scummy and are continuing to read the slot as scummy for other reasons, please feel free to address me with those. If you're going to continue to claim that my specific actions are scummy based on when I voted, make sure you know what you're talking about first.

As for my scumreads, I'm actually going to post an unpopular opinion here. Upon a reread, I've noticed that BBT had some dialogue going in the beginning of the game, but hasn't actually had much to say about the game itself. He had a couple of posts with questions, (43, 92, 102, etc), but outside of his back and forth with Yuri hasn't interacted much or provided much insight. His voting pattern is also erratic - he votes in RVS (fine), then jumps onto the Honest wagon in 40 with no explanation or mention of Honest until that point. He then votes lee in 239, posts a few times about how that lynch should happen, then unvotes in 311 saying something doesn't feel right. In 335, less than 2 hours and 25 posts later:

I can quite easily vote Lee if it comes to it.

Didn't take much conversation to change his mind. 361 is where he votes Lee again, with some strange phrasing:

VOTE: Lee

Even if he is town, he is lynch bait further down the line.

Still not a fan of Grat, but I'm actually more comfortable with my vote here right now.
VOTE: BBT

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Prodge.

Will get to this later today hopefully.

[Mathilda]

Just been through the posts of Shaddowez/necargoface.

This is an interesting slot. Necargoface was inconsistent and talked a lot of what was and was not a random vote. He would describe his vote as not really an RV and definitely not an RV in the same post #58, but then says he likes RVs and that he made one #68. Almost all his posts are about RVs, which could be seen as a way of discussing the game but not actually helping. #125 he wants to stop the conversation but then #137 brings the subject of RVs up again himself with regard to Honest's vote. An alternative explanation is that because he was being inconsistent at the beginning of the game when there was not much information to go on, that people were seizing upon it and he felt that he had to keep defending himself.

He also kept bringing up the subject of going after people who randomly hammer voted even though no one else mentioned it (#53, #58, #67, #78, #106). This could be that he wants to be seen as pro-town or it could be that he's only played 4 games in 5 years. But then why have a strong preference for lynch wagons as stated in his introductory post? He also describes himself as lazy. His weird game play could be explained though as him vaguely remembering previous strategies but not really thinking it through.

Things improve when shaddowrez replaces necargoface #271 and he immediately votes dwlee putting him at L-1. He gives a townread on BBT and Dier (who was then assassinated that night). He has slight scum read on LC which then turns into a full blown scum read #273 after listing the reasons.

#350 is interesting in that he starts to question himself with regards to dwlee as he considers whether he is newb town. This seems more like a town move because if he was scum himself he would know that dwlee was also scum and that it was safer to not question the buddy that he had just bussed. On the other hand, maybe he was wanting to be accepted on the dwlee lynch wagon and then slowly steer it off course and onto LC?

He votes for Gratuitous #415 and starts questioning whether dwlee is newbscum instead of newbtown #416. He also considers whether putting your scum buddy at L-1 early in the game to give yourself credence works.

Voting for BBT though is ballsy if he is scum #458 because it would be easier to stick with an easier target such as Gratuitous which he has already voted for. This looks more like a town move. Overall I am leaning town on shaddowrez at the moment.

[Draynth]

VOTE: Unvote
Gotta reevaluate my position

[BlueBloodedToffee]

For the moment I'm going to go with my gut: VOTE: Draynth

This vote doesn't make much sense given you just posted reasons for thinking Shaddow was scum. Why would you vote a gut scum read over a scum read you appear to have reasoning for?

The reason I waited for L-1 is precisely the reason I gave; I didn't want day one to drag on. It doesn't really matter though. My premature intent to hammer was as good as a vote anyway, claiming otherwise is a little silly.

No, it isn't. You can claim to hammer Lee if he gets to L-1, but your 'vote' only ever matters if Lee actually reaches L-1. If he doesn't, then your 'vote' never existed. Basically, what you do by saying you will hammer is a) avoid the wagon on your scum buddy if he doesn't get run up to L-1 and b) ensure you're on the wagon if he does get run up to L-1.

Claiming to hammer and actually placing the vote are two very different things.

Other than that I think the most likely busser is Shadodowez, if Dwlee was bussed, if he wasn't I'm not sure right now. I'm going to have to reread a few things.

You're very unsure of yourself Draynth; I think you're waiting for some direction.

VOTE: Unvote

Gotta reevaluate my position

Same for the unvote. You thought Shaddow was coming under suspicion and you placed your vote in time to ensure your place on the wagon before it picked up. Now, Shaddow has come under less fire and you need to 'reevaluate'. Your whole lurking/non content posting looks exactly like scum who is waiting for the game to take a direction so they can join in.

Your reads list was awful as well, based solely on the wagon which makes it much easier for you to provide a list. It also couldn't have included the stuff you were 'working on' when you last spoke about the read list because Lee hadn't been lynched yet. Exclude the wagon; what are your reads on people? Quote specific posts with reasoning to justify each read as well please.

Can we get intent to hammer stated on Draynth please?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Shaddow, talk to me about why I'm scum. I don't fully understand your case.

[Lowercase]

Claiming to hammer and actually placing the vote are two very different things.

If you actually think this you're delusional. Even the example you gave is inherently flawed in that if you claim premature intent and no one votes up to L-1, there isn't enough support to push a lynch through anyway. More importantly, the vote to L-1 is taken more lightly than the hammer; the whole point of my play was to push the lynch through more quickly, which is clearly how you interpreted it at the time.



Anyway, I differ on my opinion of Draynth's read list. It's bad that it took him so long to do; but given that fact, it's not surprising that the reads looked a little lazy. There's a strong possibility that he's just a disinterested/busy townie.

I think I still want to lynch Grat. So I have an indirectly related question. How many people were scum-reading Yuriko prior to the dwlee flip?

[shaddowez]

Shaddow, talk to me about why I'm scum. I don't fully understand your case.

Nutshell version is there was a bunch of jumping around without much direct questioning or input....basically, exactly what you did in 462 is what I was looking for. So, with that...

UNVOTE:

I think I'm back to wanting a grat lynch, and still need to revisit lc.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Claiming to hammer and actually placing the vote are two very different things.

Even the example you gave is inherently flawed in that if you claim premature intent and no one votes up to L-1, there isn't enough support to push a lynch through anyway.

Wrong, more votes = more momentum. That's very basic, by withholding your vote (even though you claim you will join wagon) you slow the momentum of the wagon down. I feel that should be pretty obvious.

Anyway, I differ on my opinion of Draynth's read list. It's bad that it took him so long to do; but given that fact, it's not surprising that the reads looked a little lazy. There's a strong possibility that he's just a disinterested/busy townie.

This is so strange - what gives you the opinion of Draynth being a 'disinterested townie'? I mean, we just lynched scum D1. I know of one alignment that would be disinterested after D1, but it isn't town... So please, elaborate on this for me.

I think I'm back to wanting a grat lynch, and still need to revisit lc.

I don't see Grat being scum. Looking forward to what you have to say about him.

What are your thoughts on Draynth?

[Draynth]

Other than that I think the most likely busser is Shadodowez, if Dwlee was bussed, if he wasn't I'm not sure right now. I'm going to have to reread a few things.

You're very unsure of yourself Draynth; I think you're waiting for some direction.

Of course I'm unsure of myself, I'm an extremely indecisive person.

VOTE: Unvote

Gotta reevaluate my position

Same for the unvote. You thought Shaddow was coming under suspicion and you placed your vote in time to ensure your place on the wagon before it picked up. Now, Shaddow has come under less fire and you need to 'reevaluate'. Your whole lurking/non content posting looks exactly like scum who is waiting for the game to take a direction so they can join in.

Not at all, Shaddow immediately posted a case on you right after I voted him. I wanted time to reread it and decide if it changed my position on his slot.

Your reads list was awful as well, based solely on the wagon which makes it much easier for you to provide a list.

So what, you're saying that I shouldn't use the wagon at all? The wagon that was on a scum player D1? I didn't 'solely' use the wagon as basis for my reads list, I specifically said in it that it had a fair influence, sure, but it wasn't solely the wagon.

Can we get intent to hammer stated on Draynth please?

So wait, you ask for a reads list, then the very next line ask for an intent to hammer? Why are you trying to rush the game so much?

[Lowercase]

Wrong, more votes = more momentum.

This is sort of true, but not really. The 'momentum' of a wagon is a subjective judgement of how likely it is that it will lead to a lynch. I would argue a wagon at L-2 with premature intent to hammer actually looks more likely to lead to a lynch than an L-1 wagon without.

This is so strange - what gives you the opinion of Draynth being a 'disinterested townie'? I mean, we just lynched scum D1. I know of one alignment that would be disinterested after D1, but it isn't town... So please, elaborate on this for me.

Mostly that I think there are better options. My point in the last post is that taking a long time to post reads and having lazy reads isn't really two different points, it's just indicative of disinterest. You could be right, though. I just don't think you are.

The thing about Draynth is that his positions are pretty reasonable day one, and they're still pretty reasonable. The only problem I see with him is the aforementioned reads list delay. Compared to, for instance, Gratuitous who was still on Yuriko when we lynched dwlee, he looks pretty good.

Btw, is Grat on V/LA? I double-checked and it seems like he isn't.

[Lowercase]

Also:
VOTE: Gratuitous
Wouldn't want that momentum to die down.

[YurikoJasmine]

Had time to skim, no time to process. Will do so tomorrow morning on my way to work.

[Gratuitous]

Prod-dodge, Had something pop up yesterday, will be back tonight

[YurikoJasmine]

vote: dray

realist based entirely on wagon although many other stuff is present in D1 and D2. Also laid very low in D1 and pop up with reads everywhere in D2 looks like testing water for lynch wagon.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2.3

Draynth

(4): BlueBloodedToffee, Gratuitous, Mathilda, YurikoJasmine

Mathilda

(1): Draynth

Gratuitous

(1): Lowercase

Not Voting

(1): shaddowez

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.


Deadline: August 27, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-08-26 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Mathilda]

Four votes required to lynch and Draynth now has them. I'm posting the vote counts now for future reference just in case. Please say if you spot a mistake.


Page 17
Yuriko votes Mathilda
Shaddowez votes Gratuitous
BBT votes Draynth

Page 18
Yuriko unvotes Mathilda
Mathilda votes Gratuitous
Gratuitous votes Draynth
Mathilda unvotes Gratutious and votes Draynth


Page 19
Draynth votes Shaddowez
Shaddowez votes BBT
Draynth unvotes Shaddowez
Shaddowez unvotes BBT
Lowercase votes Gratuitous
Yuriko votes Draynth


01 - Mathilda: Yuriko
02 - Gratuitous: Shaddowez
03 - Draynth: BBT
04 - Mathilda: [Yuriko]
05 - Gratuitous: Shaddowez, Mathilda
06 - Draynth: BBT, Gratuitous,
07 - Gratuitous: Shaddowez, [Mathilda]
08 - Draynth: BBT, Gratuitous, Mathilda
09 - shaddowez: Draynth
10 - BBT: shaddowez
11 - shaddowez: [Draynth]
12 - BBT: [shaddowez]
13 - Gratuitous: Lowercase
14 - Draynth: BBT, Gratuitous, Mathilda, Yuriko