Newbie 1633: The Daily Show-A Retrospective - GAME OVER

[Draynth]

Wait so I was lynched? zz

[Gratuitous]

I think so but am unsure why the day hasn't been ended then?

[fferyllt]

Apologies for the delay!

Draynth was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Night 2 begins now and will end August 21 at Noon US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-08-21 09:00:00)

[fferyllt]

Mathilda died last night. She was a

Town Doctor

.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 3.1

Day 3 Begins!

Not Voting

(5): shaddowez, Lowercase, Gratuitous, YurikoJasmine, BlueBloodedToffee

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.


Deadline: September 5, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-09-05 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[YurikoJasmine]

I can't believe I actually hammered dray i somehow thought we were still in day 1 and I put him on L-1...... Shit. And now we lost our doctor.

I'm on V/LA till 24 August.

I'll do rereading sand ISO when I get home in hopefully a few hours, and after giving some thoughts I'll be out of town.

[Lowercase]

Ok, so are we still on for Grat or what's the deal, here?

[Lowercase]

You know what? I'm just going to vote Grat right out the gate here.

VOTE: Grat

I could talk all day about how Grat's day one positioning was bad. How his day 2 play was also pretty bad, being practically non-existent and all. But I'll wait until someone asks me about that.

out of game reference redacted - f

Outside of that there's Yuriko and BBT. I don't think Yuriko's interactions with Dwlee look like partner interactions, nor do I really suspect BBT's involvement on the wagon. I have some reservations, but the only reasonable answer here is Grat, imo.

[YurikoJasmine]

finally got back to home, probably no time to do iso, but will read the post. i'm interested in hearing what bbt has to say, as he remains my most solid town read so far

[YurikoJasmine]

I could talk all day about how Grat's day one positioning was bad. How his day 2 play was also pretty bad, being practically non-existent and all. But I'll wait until someone asks me about that.

ask about what

[Lowercase]

I suspect people will ask me to elaborate on the case, but didn't think it was something worth doing at the time. That post is intended to express my thoughts about the overall gamestate rather than to focus on Grat specifically.

The bottom line about my stance here is sort of two fold. First, Grat stayed off the Dwlee wagon day one, citing a scum read on Yuriko. On day 2 he posted very little, jumped on what ultimately became the lynch wagon and did little else.

By association, there is no one else in the game that looks like a reasonable partner for Dwlee. I have more in-depth thoughts involving a subtle inconsistency in his day one trajectory which suggests ad hoc reasoning, but I would like to see what other people think before filibustering the thread about that.

[Gratuitous]

I'll bite Lowercase, elaborate, because I'm sick of your tunnel on me. I'll be the first to admit I obviously haven't had the best reads as my voting record can attest, but you have never stated a true case that isn't "scummy b/c of replace-in," which fits yourself I might add, doubt-casting and my poor results. If my presence in a potential final 3 (should we not end it today), would be too disturbing to town to get a win, then fine I get it, and in that case I'd prefer to be lynched if it narrows done the possibilities and allows town to prevail.

I've already explained my D1 actions, yet you continue to beat a dead horse. Day 2 I stood up and led the way with the best read I had. I noticed your subtle defense of Draynth in #468, you know something we didn't?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Hey guys, will get to this later today.

[Lowercase]

I was hoping for an actual response from someone other than Grat, but whatever.

The reason Grat's yuriko/dwlee position was bad is not because it was a bad read, but because it looks manufactured. And there are a couple reasons why. For one, it seemed like by day's end, no one was really pushing the Yuriko angle and from what I can tell most people had re-evaluated their scum reads on the slot. The only two people who seemed intent on Yuriko over dwlee were Grat and dwlee himself. Iirc, Grat did not post any evidence pushing the Yuri case after his first post, so it seems most likely that he had nothing else to say about the slot.

The other part is this. Grat says day one he doesn't expect his reads to exceed something like 50% certainty. So presumably in his first post, this was how likely he thought it was that Yuriko was scum. Since he did not post any other positions until later, either Dwlee 'slipped under his radar' or he noticed Dwlee's scummy behavior but didn't point it out (which would be worse.) By day's end he said he thought Grat or Yuri but not both were scum, implying that he developed contradictory reads but did not become any less sure about his first one.

This seems like an unreasonable train of thought for a townie, but the scum incentive behind it is obvious. He would not have to be in the wrong about Dwlee but would not have to participate in his lynch, and as a bonus he did not need to push any other slots.

BBT himself noted the weirdness of Grat's Draynth vote, and this post is long enough; so I won't point out anything about his day 2 play other than:

Day 2 I stood up and led the way with the best read I had.

Reading this post, you'd think voting Draynth was an act of true moral courage, when he was really just jumping on a band wagon with BBT.

[Lowercase]

I noticed your subtle defense of Draynth in #468, you know something we didn't?

Dude, I was pretty clearly not in favor of that wagon, I'd really prefer if you avoid using subtle in relation to my posts.

Draynth's wagon was bad because BBT's entire case boiled down to Draynth not being engaged enough. There was no effort to look into associations, which were non-existent between Draynth and Dwlee. It was pretty obvious that BBT was wrong about the game state at end of day one given that he expected a town flip from Dwlee, so I was actually a little surprised that BBT doubled down on his reads. The votes on the wagon were pretty bad as well. I like wagons to have real reasons. Disengagement isn't usually a good reason when there are associations, unless you're making a meta argument against someone like NS or natirasha.

[shaddowez]

BBT

- With Draynth flipping town, are you still so sure about LC being the other scum? I know you were against a Grat lynch early in the game, but I'm not sure if you actually thought he was town, or if it was because that's where LC wanted to go with a lynch.

Grat

- What sorts of reads do you have now? On day 1 you voted Yuri over dwlee(

scum

), and in 294 sound like you still believe Yuri to be scum. Then, for D2 you vote Draynth(

town

), not Yuri. It's also interesting to note where you put Mathilda on your want lynched list in 438. Outside of your arguments that it's most likely I bussed dwlee, and LC tunneling you, do you have anything to offer?

Draynth's wagon was bad because BBT's entire case boiled down to Draynth not being engaged enough. There was no effort to look into associations, which were non-existent between Draynth and Dwlee. It was pretty obvious that BBT was wrong about the game state at end of day one given that he expected a town flip from Dwlee, so I was actually a little surprised that BBT doubled down on his reads

LC

- Do you think BBT is just having a hard time reading this game, or do you think his reads have been intentionally bad?

[Lowercase]

I don't think BBT's likely scum here. Matrix6 is a pretty bad game for bussing, because trackers and JK's become radically more powerful when there is only one scum. If you're going to bus, it should be because you don't think there's any other way for the day to go. I don't think BBT would have considered the lynch inevitable at the time he entered the wagon, and his weird semi-coaching thing would have ultimately been counter-productive if he was scum. I suspect scum just happened to get lucky in shooting the tracker night one, so scum-BBT would have opened himself up to losing for reasons outside of his control for not that much gain.

I'm thinking it's prob between you and Grat, both of whom would make some degree of sense.

Ftr, the things that bother me about you are:
The night one kill makes the most sense from your perspective, because Dierfire had no suspicion on him and cited you as a scum-read.
Dwlee mentioned scum-reads on only two slots, Yuri and you. His last post before he died could be dismissed as WIFOM I suppose, but it was more of a pattern since he mentioned you in his first posts as well. He came off as rather weak scum, who often inexpertly attempt to distance by listing their partner as a scum-read.
The replace timing was pretty bad, given that it was when cargo would have likely been forced to comment on his partner's wagon hypothetically.
Your position on me and BBT are pretty weird. You accused me of bussing day one, then ultimately never pursued that even though the dwlee flip could only support your position.
Jumping on and off BBT was pretty bad, especially since your case was a list of behaviors ranging from not scummy to actually good.

I doubt you could come up with something that would make me want to lynch BBT. I don't like Yuriko's hammer, but the dwlee/yuri interactions seem all wrong for some sort of cross-bus. I think it is most likely that Dwlee was actually hoping to lynch Yuri early on.

[shaddowez]

I'm not actually looking for a BBT lynch. There was something I didn't like about BBT's ISO at the time (tbh, I don't even recall exactly what it was, even reading my own post about it), but I do know that the post he made after was basically the only thing I was looking

for

, which is why I unvoted.

I've actually ISO'ed you a few times, but I never found anything I felt was worth posting about. I never did a full reads list, and since I had other places I wanted to focus my attention I didn't bother to say anything about it.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I could talk all day about how Grat's day one positioning was bad. How his day 2 play was also pretty bad, being practically non-existent and all. But I'll wait until someone asks me about that.

LC, if Grat is scum; why are you not dead? I'm obviously having serious trouble in reading people in this game so atm I'm feeling a little lost. I'm still having serious trouble seeing Grat as scum though.

Scum have either been insanely lucky with the kills or they are experienced (nailing two PRs). I'm feeling pretty shitty atm because I don't know what to do or what direction to go in.

BBT

- With Draynth flipping town, are you still so sure about LC being the other scum?

No, I'm not. I'm just gonna hold my hands up and say I have no idea who is scum.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Spoiler: D1 VCs

Vote Count 1.2

ZeroSummer

(4): YurikoJasmine, BlueBloodedToffee,

Draynth

,

MasonP

MasonP

(1):

Dierfire

Not Voting

(4):

Honest

, Marklin, Axwell, ZeroSummer

Vote Count 1.3

Honest

(4): ZeroSummer,

Dierfire

, BlueBloodedToffee, necargoface

BlueBloodedToffee

(2):

Honest

, Axwell

ZeroSummer

(1):

MasonP

necargoface

(1): YurikoJasmine

Not Voting

(1):

Draynth

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Vote Count 1.4

Honest

(3): ZeroSummer,

Dierfire

, necargoface

BlueBloodedToffee

(2):

Honest

, Axwell

ZeroSummer

(1):

Dwlee99

necargoface

(1):

Draynth

YurikoJasmine

(1): BlueBloodedToffee

Not Voting

(1): YurikoJasmine

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Vote Count 1.5

YurikoJasmine

(3): BlueBloodedToffee,

Dwlee99

, Gratuitous

Mathilda

(2):

Dierfire

, necargoface

BlueBloodedToffee

(2):

Mathilda

, lowercase

necargoface

(1):

Draynth

Dwlee99

(1): YurikoJasmine

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Vote Count 1.7

Dwlee99

(3): YurikoJasmine, BlueBloodedToffee,

Mathilda

YurikoJasmine

(2):

Dwlee99

, Gratuitous

Mathilda

(1):

Dierfire

Gratuitous

(1): Lowercase

necargoface

(1):

Draynth

Not Voting

(1): necargoface

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Vote Count 1.8

Dwlee99

(4): YurikoJasmine, BlueBloodedToffee,

Mathilda

, shaddowez

YurikoJasmine

(2):

Dwlee99

, Gratuitous

shaddowez

(1):

Draynth

Mathilda

(1):

Dierfire

Gratuitous

(1): Lowercase

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Vote Count 1.9

Dwlee99

(3): YurikoJasmine,

Mathilda

, shaddowez

YurikoJasmine

(2):

Dwlee99

, Gratuitous

shaddowez

(1):

Draynth

Mathilda

(1):

Dierfire

Gratuitous

(1): Lowercase

Not Voting

(1): BlueBloodedToffee

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Vote Count 1.10

Dwlee99

(5): YurikoJasmine,

Mathilda

, shaddowez, BlueBloodedToffee, Lowercase

YurikoJasmine

(2):

Dwlee99

, Gratuitous

shaddowez

(1):

Draynth

Mathilda

(1):

Dierfire

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

OK, couple of things.

I find it highly unlikely that both scum (especially newb-scum) voted side by side for the majority of D1 (see VC 1.7 onwards). Also, Mason (Dwlee) voted for Zero (Grat) to place him at L-1 super early in the game - I still don't see this coming from scum - especially newb scum. Given I'm already town reading Grat, I am ruling him out of my lynch pool Today and probably for the rest of the game.

If I believe Grat to be town, then the VC 1.3 looks pretty telling - is that an all town wagon on Honest (Mathilda)? Or is Necargo (Shaddow) scum taking advantage of a wagon in the ascendancy?

I feel like I need to take a closer look at Shaddow so I'm planning on doing that at some point soon. If anyone bussed - it was him.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Actually, Dwlee and Grat were both voting Yuri from VC 1.5.

LC, you still think they can be scum together?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Hmm, Shaddow's 'scum-read' on me and retraction looks pretty bad upon closer inspection. Especially when he claims it was down to me 'not doing things' when in actual fact his case was based on my interactions with Dwlee and my voting history. The fact he is claiming he 'doesn't remember what he found scummy about me' when it's right there in 458 is also pretty worrying.

I think Shaddow was testing the waters for a BBT lynch. I also think he thought LC would bite and the two of them together could drive a wagon on me. Yeah, I'm pretty comfortable with this now;

VOTE: Shaddow

[Gratuitous]

Grat

- What sorts of reads do you have now? On day 1 you voted Yuri over dwlee(

scum

), and in 294 sound like you still believe Yuri to be scum. Then, for D2 you vote Draynth(

town

), not Yuri. It's also interesting to note where you put Mathilda on your want lynched list in 438. Outside of your arguments that it's most likely I bussed dwlee, and LC tunneling you, do you have anything to offer?

Why would I have voted for Yuri D2 exactly? As you point out in #294 I had said I didn't think Yuri and Dwlee were scum together based upon their interactions (un-aligned pair), so Dwlee flipping scum removed my suspicion of Yuri.

As for what it appears you're implying with Mathilda on my list in #438, if I was scum, why would I have NK'd someone 1) I thought was a lynch target, 2) Was reasonable enough to listen to my points on D2. The NK pattern is strange to me, because unless scum is seeing something I'm not for alignments, I'm not really sure where the NK pattern is. Frankly, I would have thought Yuriko would've gotten shot as nearly conf!town.

[Lowercase]

LC, if Grat is scum; why are you not dead?

Because you suspected me and Mathilda started off voting grat day 2. Had I died, she likely would have gone back to Grat and you would no longer have any surviving scum-reads.

Actually, Dwlee and Grat were both voting Yuri from VC 1.5.

LC, you still think they can be scum together?

I've looked at a table of Newbie day one lynch wagon stats and the evidence shows that town lynch wagons are well-randomized such that conclusions like the one you're making here don't have any empirical support. I see no reason why that shouldn't also be true of wagons earlier in the day, so this doesn't mean anything to me.

I think you're right about shaddow, though. I don't understand the basis of your town-read on Grat but I think I actually wrote a stronger case against Shaddow than Grat.

[Lowercase]

On day 1 you voted Yuri over dwlee(scum), and in 294 sound like you still believe Yuri to be scum. Then, for D2 you vote Draynth(town), not Yuri.

I also think this question targeted at Grat is bad. It's like he's trying to agree with me by talking about Grat's Yuriko read, but missing the point.